[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 7 Dec 2025 中国策略 China Strategy 政策窗口临近，市场反弹动能有望延续 Policy Window Approaching, Market Rebound Momentum Likely to Continue 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为市场整固后有望延续反弹，科技修复仍有空间。本周港股与 A 股市场缩量震荡后于周五拉升，市场开 始关注中国政策窗口；有色金属受国际金属价格大涨带动表现最强，科技中以算力为代表的相关个股也表现相对 活跃。 下周市场将面临三大关键事件：政治局会议、中央经济工作会议以及美联储议息会议，市场波动可能加大。周五 市场已开始提前交易政治局会议释放宽松货币政策与积极财政政策信号的预期。同时，市场对政策支持长期资金 入市的预期进一步升温，周五金管总局正式下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continuation of a "more proactive" fiscal policy in China for 2026, emphasizing the need for expansionary fiscal measures to support economic growth amid ongoing internal and external challenges [3][5][6]. Fiscal Policy Outlook - The central government is expected to maintain a fiscal deficit rate of no less than 4% in 2026, with new government debt projected to exceed approximately 12 trillion yuan in 2025, potentially reaching between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [3][6][10]. - The overall public budget expenditure is anticipated to surpass 30 trillion yuan in 2026, reflecting the government's commitment to stabilizing growth, expanding domestic demand, and improving people's livelihoods [3][10][14]. Structural Adjustments - Experts suggest that alongside the expansion of fiscal policy, there should be a focus on optimizing the structure of fiscal spending, prioritizing investments in human capital and consumer welfare [3][10][15]. - The emphasis will be on balancing short-term stimulus with long-term sustainability, ensuring that fiscal measures effectively support both investment and consumption [7][8][15]. Debt Management - The government is likely to increase the scale of new debt issuance to address the fiscal deficit and support economic recovery, with estimates suggesting that new government debt could reach around 15 trillion yuan in 2026 [11][13][12]. - The fiscal deficit rate may rise to approximately 4.5% to 5%, with special bonds and local government bonds playing a crucial role in financing infrastructure and other key projects [11][13]. Focus on Social Welfare and Consumption - There is a strong recommendation for fiscal funds to be directed towards social welfare, including healthcare, education, and elderly care, while also promoting consumption through targeted fiscal support [15][17]. - The article highlights the need for increased fiscal support for consumer goods and services, suggesting that the government may expand the scope of subsidies and tax reductions to stimulate demand [15][17]. Tax and Fiscal Reforms - The article indicates that 2026 will see a push for deeper fiscal reforms, including the potential shift of consumption tax responsibilities from central to local governments to enhance local fiscal capacity [18]. - Zero-based budgeting reforms are expected to expand, aiming to improve the efficiency of fiscal spending and better align responsibilities between central and local governments [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" to stabilize the economy and promote growth [1][3][4] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to be no lower than 4%, with new government debt projected to exceed 12 trillion yuan, potentially reaching between 13 trillion and 16 trillion yuan [1][2][6] - The focus of fiscal spending will shift towards enhancing public welfare and stimulating consumption, with an emphasis on "investing in people" [1][12][13] Group 2 - The fiscal policy will maintain an expansionary stance to support economic growth, particularly in light of ongoing challenges in the real estate market and consumer spending [5][6][10] - The total fiscal expenditure is anticipated to exceed 30 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of around 4.5% to match nominal GDP growth [10][11] - There will be a significant increase in the issuance of special bonds and local government bonds to support infrastructure and public services [9][12][14] Group 3 - The government aims to enhance the sustainability of fiscal policies while balancing short-term stimulus with long-term stability [4][7] - Recommendations include increasing fiscal support for consumption, particularly in sectors like healthcare, education, and social security [12][13] - The reform of the fiscal and tax system will focus on increasing local government financial autonomy and improving the efficiency of fiscal spending [14]

同时，投资于人成为宏观政策的突出特点。投资于人是一项关乎国家长远发展的重大战略部署。从注重 惠民生与促消费相结合，突出以就业带动增收，不断提高社会保障水平，到建立育儿补贴制度、逐步推 行免费学前教育、推进普惠托育服务体系建设，国家投入更多真金白银聚焦人的全面发展。 可以说，今年我国经济顶住压力、稳步前行，重要"密码"就在于更加积极有为的宏观政策。从统计数据 可以看出，一系列政策措施促进消费潜力有序释放、产业优化升级、新动能成长壮大。以"两重"建设为 例，8000亿元超长期特别国债支持1459个"硬投资"项目建设，在新型城镇化、粮食安全、社会民生等方 面大显身手。宏观政策组合拳发力显效，为实现全年经济社会发展目标提供了坚实支撑。 "十五五"规划建议提出"强化逆周期和跨周期调节，实施更加积极的宏观政策"。当前，我国经济运行总 体平稳、稳中有进的同时，也面临着困难与挑战，特别是外部不稳定不确定性因素依然较多，国内需求 仍显不足，不少企业经营面临困难。为此，宏观政策不能松劲，要以更加积极有为的实招硬招，持续助 力经济发展。 我国政策空间充足、政策工具丰富。宏观政策要用好用足政策空间，提高调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效 性 ...

原标题：积极有为的宏观政策有力有效 扩大有效益的投资、实施提振消费专项行动、保持流动性充裕和金融总量合理增长……今年以来， 我国实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，有效稳增长、稳就业、稳预期，推动经济持续回升向好。下一步， 宏观政策"更加积极有为"的取向不会变，在经济运行中保驾护航、赋能添力的作用将更加突出。 "更加积极有为"的宏观政策取向，是加大逆周期调节力度，更好应对经济运行中的不稳定、不确定 因素的战略部署。今年以来，一系列力度大、含金量高、针对性强的政策措施落地实施，有效稳定预 期、激发活力、提振信心。 同时，投资于人成为宏观政策的突出特点。投资于人是一项关乎国家长远发展的重大战略部署。从 注重惠民生与促消费相结合，突出以就业带动增收，不断提高社会保障水平，到建立育儿补贴制度、逐 步推行免费学前教育、推进普惠托育服务体系建设，国家投入更多真金白银聚焦人的全面发展。 可以说，今年我国经济顶住压力、稳步前行，重要"密码"就在于更加积极有为的宏观政策。从统计 数据可以看出，一系列政策措施促进消费潜力有序释放、产业优化升级、新动能成长壮大。以"两重"建 设为例，8000亿元超长期特别国债支持1459个"硬投资"项目建 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's local fiscal operations are undergoing significant transformation and pressure, necessitating reforms to establish a sustainable fiscal mechanism that supports healthy economic development [1][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Local Fiscal Dilemmas - The structural contradictions during the economic transition period are limiting the foundation for fiscal revenue growth, with traditional industries slowing down and new industries not yet contributing significantly to tax revenue [2]. - The traditional tax collection model is inadequate for covering new economic activities, leading to risks of tax revenue loss, especially in regions heavily reliant on specific industries [2][3]. - The fiscal system below the provincial level is not fully reformed, affecting the balance of revenue and expenditure, with rigid spending structures and insufficient budget performance management [3]. Group 2: Strategies to Enhance Fiscal Sustainability - A sustainable local fiscal mechanism should focus on cultivating endogenous economic growth, optimizing institutional environments, and innovating policy tools while revitalizing existing assets and improving tax collection [4]. - Cultivating high-quality tax sources is essential for solidifying the micro-foundation of fiscal revenue, shifting from merely attracting investment to nurturing and strengthening local businesses [5][6]. - Gradual reforms of the fiscal system below the provincial level are necessary, including optimizing budget management and enhancing the efficiency of fiscal resource allocation [7]. Group 3: Innovative Policy Tools and Resource Management - Local governments should innovate policy tools to expand fiscal revenue sources, focusing on long-term institutional advantages rather than solely on transfer payments [8]. - Effective mobilization of social capital through innovative financing models, such as public-private partnerships (PPP), is crucial for funding key industries and technological innovation [8][9]. - Strengthening the management of fiscal resources and tax collection efficiency is vital, including the establishment of a modern tax collection system that utilizes data sharing and intelligent analysis to ensure comprehensive tax collection [9].

Core Viewpoint - China's local fiscal operations are undergoing a profound transformation and facing significant pressure due to complex external environments, economic slowdown, and deep adjustments in the real estate market, necessitating reforms to establish a sustainable local fiscal mechanism to support healthy economic development [1][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Local Fiscal Challenges - The structural contradictions during the economic transition period are limiting the foundation for fiscal revenue growth, with traditional industries slowing down and new industries not yet sufficiently developed [6]. - The traditional tax collection system struggles to effectively cover new economic activities, leading to risks of tax revenue loss, especially in regions overly reliant on specific industries [6]. - The fiscal system below the provincial level is not fully reformed, affecting revenue and expenditure balance, with rigid expenditure structures and inadequate performance management mechanisms [7]. Group 2: Strategies to Enhance Fiscal Sustainability - Cultivating high-quality tax sources is essential, focusing on creating a vibrant and diverse tax base, shifting from "attracting investment" to "nurturing businesses" [11]. - Gradually advancing fiscal reforms at the provincial level is crucial, including optimizing budget management and establishing a long-term mechanism for government debt management [12]. - Innovating policy tools to expand fiscal revenue sources, such as shifting focus from single transfer payments to major reform pilot projects and strategic platforms [13][14]. Group 3: Resource Coordination and Tax Administration Efficiency - Fully activating existing asset resources to enhance value and revenue, employing methods like public leasing and asset disposal [15]. - Standardizing government revenue management to reduce reliance on non-tax income and improve the regulatory framework for tax incentives [15]. - Building a modern tax administration system using data-driven approaches to ensure comprehensive tax collection and address emerging tax risks [15].

记者丨周潇枭 编辑丨张星 今年前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，全年有望实现5%左右的增长，背后很重要的支撑在于 更加积极的财政政策。 今年更加积极的财政政策内涵丰富，赤字率提高到4%左右，对应赤字规模为5.66万亿元；发 行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，支持"两重""两新"工作；发行超长期特别国债5000亿元，支持 国有大型商业银行补充资本；安排新增地方专项债4.4万亿元，用于投资建设、土地收储、消 化地方拖欠企业账款等；四季度安排使用5000亿元地方债限额，用于化解存量债务和投资建设 等。 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，部分机构预判2026年经济增长目标仍在5%左右。考虑到当 前内需恢复偏弱、房地产市场在深度调整进程中、外部不确定性较大等， 2026年要推动释放 潜在经济增速，须实施更加积极的宏观政策，尤其需要更加积极的财政政策加以支持。 中国社科院财经战略研究院财政研究室主任何代欣对21世纪经济报道记者表示，"十五五"期 间，我国经济增长目标预计在5%左右，积极财政政策的支撑力度和实施方式都会进一步优 化。 明年积极财政政策将进一步提振消费 ，"两新"政策会优化；财政会坚持"投资于人"的主 线，增加 ...

今年更加积极的财政政策内涵丰富，赤字率提高到4%左右，对应赤字规模为5.66万亿元；发行超长期 特别国债1.3万亿元，支持"两重""两新"工作；发行超长期特别国债5000亿元，支持国有大型商业银行 补充资本；安排新增地方专项债4.4万亿元，用于投资建设、土地收储、消化地方拖欠企业账款等；四 季度安排使用5000亿元地方债限额，用于化解存量债务和投资建设等。 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，部分机构预判2026年经济增长目标仍在5%左右。考虑到当前内需恢 复偏弱、房地产市场在深度调整进程中、外部不确定性较大等，2026年要推动释放潜在经济增速，须实 施更加积极的宏观政策，尤其需要更加积极的财政政策加以支持。 支持全方位扩大内需 财政部数据显示，1—10月份，全国一般公共预算收入18.65万亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，税收收入 15.34万亿元，同比增长1.7%。1—10月份，全国一般公共预算支出22.58万亿元，同比增长2%。 与此同时，1—10月份，全国政府性基金预算收入3.45万亿元，同比下降2.8%。其中，国有土地使用权 出让收入约2.5万亿元，同比下降7.4%。1—10月份，全国政府性基金支出8. ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by the Hubei Provincial Committee emphasizes the implementation of proactive fiscal policies and the enhancement of fiscal sustainability through improved management and resource allocation [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Management - The proposal calls for the strengthening of fiscal scientific management to enhance sustainability [1] - It highlights the need for better coordination of fiscal resources and the reform of state-owned assets management [1] - The focus is on optimizing both existing and new resources while ensuring regulatory improvements to boost efficiency and effectiveness in the allocation and use of state-owned assets [1] Group 2: State-Owned Enterprises and Economic Development - The document stresses the importance of adhering to the principle of "two unwavering" to promote complementary advantages among various ownership economies [1] - It advocates for deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises to enhance their core functions and drive growth [1] - The proposal encourages collaboration between central and local governments to support the high-quality development of central enterprises in Hubei [1]