Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 70,000 and the revised previous value of 48,000[1] - The unemployment rate in January 2026 was 4.3%, lower than the expected 4.4% and the previous value of 4.4%[1] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value and slightly above the expected 3.6%[1] Economic Indicators - The increase in non-farm employment was primarily driven by the private sector, with significant contributions from both goods production and service sectors[2] - The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5%, up from 62.4% in the previous month, indicating a recovery in employment willingness among middle-aged groups[4] - Temporary unemployment decreased by 83,000, reflecting increased demand for labor, while permanent unemployment saw a slight increase of 38,000[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Given the strong employment data, the Federal Reserve's focus is expected to shift towards inflation, reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026[5] - Market expectations indicate a 94% probability of no rate cuts in March 2026, with potential cuts in June and October at probabilities of 49.4% and 34.8%, respectively[5][24] Sector Performance - The construction sector added 33,000 jobs in January, a significant recovery from a previous loss of 4,000 jobs, driven by lower mortgage rates and housing reforms[3] - The professional and business services sector saw an increase in temporary jobs from 6,000 to 9,000, indicating strong demand in the part-time job market[3]

Employment Data - In January, non-farm employment increased significantly by 130,000, surpassing the expected 65,000, marking the largest increase since January 2025[7] - Private sector employment added 172,000 jobs in January, with a three-month average of 103,000 and a fourth-quarter average of 50,000[7] - The education and healthcare sectors contributed the majority of the employment increase, adding 137,000 jobs[8] Unemployment and Labor Participation - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%, driven by improved job demand[9] - The labor participation rate rebounded by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%, primarily due to increases in the 20-54 age group[13] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%[19] - Year-on-year wage growth decreased slightly to 3.7%, remaining stable within the 3.7%-3.9% range since the second half of 2025[19] Market Expectations - Following the strong employment data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March dropped from 21.7% to 7.9%, and the probability of a cut before June decreased from 75% to 59.8%[2] - U.S. stock indices rose, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.2% before retreating[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted significantly and then repaired, with differentiated trends. After the adjustment pressure is fully released, it can still be mainly long - biased on dips according to the strength of fundamentals [13]. - This week, attention should be paid to the rare simultaneous release of non - farm payrolls and CPI in the US due to the short - term government shutdown. In China, the January social financing and inflation data will be released to verify the "good start" of the economy. Additionally, the US and Iran plan to hold a new round of negotiations [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions Macro Logic - The non - ferrous metals market is generally volatile, with the holiday atmosphere becoming stronger and trading turning lighter. There is still volatility despite capital leaving the market as the holiday approaches. The market narrative has shifted from confidence in synchronous growth and abundant liquidity to uncertainties brought by volatility, a weak labor market, and AI - driven disruptions. The Middle East situation remains unstable, and there is still a possibility of fluctuations in overseas commodities during the holiday [12]. - China's January CPI year - on - year increase fell to 0.2%, and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4%. Before the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning", indicating that employment growth may be lower than expected. US retail sales in December unexpectedly stagnated month - on - month, showing weak consumption at the end of the holiday season [12]. Investment Suggestions for Each Variety | Variety | Operating Logic | Support Area | Pressure Area | Market Judgment | Strategy | Recommendation Intensity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | Multiple factors including weak US retail data, dovish Fed stance, potential large - scale downward revision of non - farm payrolls, strategic reserve plan by Trump, and domestic macro - logic. Supply is currently strong but may decline in February due to the holiday, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. | 98000 - 99000 | 108000 - 110000 | Oscillating upward | Buy on dips | +1 | | Zinc | Dollar adjustment, overseas gas price decline, and uncertainties in Iran negotiations. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening. | 23800 - 24000 | 25000 - 25500 | Phase adjustment | Buy on dips | +0.5 | | Aluminum Industry Chain | For aluminum, there are new capacity releases and changes in demand in different sectors. For alumina, production capacity is increasing. For recycled aluminum alloy, there are both cost - support weakening and some positive factors. | Aluminum: 22000 - 22300; Alumina: 2300 - 2600; Recycled Aluminum Alloy: 21000 - 21500 | Aluminum: 26000 - 27000; Alumina: 2900 - 3000; Recycled Aluminum Alloy: 24000 - 26000 | Aluminum: Oscillating consolidation; Alumina: Oscillating weakly; Cast Aluminum Alloy: Oscillating consolidation | Wait and see | +0.5/ - 0.5/ +0.5 | | Tin | Supply is affected by factors such as tight raw materials and approaching holidays. Demand shows a downward trend in some sectors. | 330000 - 350000 | 450000 - 460000 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait and see | +0.5 | | Lead | Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is weak. The market is affected by holiday factors and inventory changes. | 16400 - 16500 | 17000 - 17300 | Range - bound rebound | Buy on dips | +0.5 | | Nickel | Affected by geopolitical factors, Indonesian policy adjustments, and changes in supply and demand. | 125000 - 128000 | 13800 - 140000 | Phase adjustment | Buy on dips | +1 | | Stainless Steel | Affected by Indonesian policies, cost changes, and seasonal supply - demand patterns. | 12800 - 13000 | 13800 - 14000 | Phase adjustment | Buy on dips | +1 | [14][15][16][17][18] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Change Percentage | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 102180 | 0.61% | | Zinc | 24585 | 0.53% | | Aluminum | 23660 | 0.62% | | Alumina | 2842 | 0.25% | | Tin | 394700 | 3.32% | | Lead | 16740 | 0.45% | | Nickel | 139360 | 4.51% | | Stainless Steel | 14040 | 2.18% | | Cast Aluminum Alloy | 22205 | 0.38% | [19] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The analysis includes various non - ferrous metals futures contracts, showing information such as price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The report provides spot prices and price change percentages of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain It presents multiple charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [23][25][29][36][44][48][51][55]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage It shows various charts for arbitrage analysis of different non - ferrous metals, including price ratios and basis spreads [58][59][61][65][69][71]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options It provides charts related to option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and the ratio of call to put open interest for different non - ferrous metals [75][76][77][79][82].

Core Insights - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed stronger-than-expected results, with 130,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, leading to a reassessment of interest rate cut expectations by the market [1][4] Employment Data - January's non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, exceeding most institutional forecasts [1][4] - Despite the positive employment data, there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth, as previous employment figures have often been revised downward [2] Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the stock market experienced a rise followed by a pullback, indicating investor uncertainty between economic resilience and delayed rate cuts [3] - The bond market saw short-term yields rise, and the probability of rate cuts before June was significantly reduced by traders [3] Policy Implications - Expectations for rate cuts in March and April have diminished, with a higher likelihood of any cuts being postponed until mid-year or later [1][5] - The White House emphasizes having "ample" room for rate cuts, while there are differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing and necessity of such cuts [2][6] Political Factors - There is a notable divergence between the White House and the Federal Reserve regarding the pace of rate cuts and the independence of the central bank, which could impact market pricing [2][6] Future Monitoring - Upcoming CPI and initial jobless claims data will be crucial in validating the direction of monetary policy [7] - The market is expected to remain in a "data-driven and policy-disturbed" fluctuation pattern, with a focus on inflation and employment indicators as key determinants for future trends [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed an addition of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations, which has led to a shift in the anticipated timeline for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts from June to July [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the employment data release, spot gold prices dropped sharply, falling to around $5,050 per ounce after previously reaching a high of $5,100 [2]. - Spot silver also experienced a decline, dropping to below $82 per ounce, with a day-over-day decrease of 2.58% [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Analysts from Huayuan Futures indicated that the Federal Reserve still has considerable policy space, suggesting that the current rate cut cycle may be prolonged due to persistent inflation concerns, which could create a favorable environment for gold investments [2]. - The median interest rate projections from the December meeting remain unchanged from September, with expectations of potential rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [2].

Group 1: Market Reactions - Spot gold rose by 1.16% to $5083.98 per ounce, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical factors despite a drop after strong non-farm payroll data [1] - Spot silver increased by 4.34%, closing at $84.3 per ounce, surpassing the $86 mark during trading [1] - WTI crude oil rose by 1.09% to $64.77 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 0.9% to $69.3 per barrel, influenced by ongoing US-Iran tensions and unexpected increases in US EIA crude oil inventories [1] Group 2: US Employment Data - The US non-farm payroll report for January showed an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations and marking the largest increase since April 2025 [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%, the lowest level since August 2025 [1] - Following the non-farm report, traders adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Fed official Schneider expressed support for maintaining interest rates at a "somewhat restrictive" level, cautioning that further rate cuts could lead to persistent inflation [1] - Fed official Milan indicated willingness to remain at the Federal Reserve if nominated [1] Group 4: OPEC Forecasts - OPEC maintained its forecasts for global oil demand growth for 2026 and 2027 at 1.38 million barrels per day and 1.34 million barrels per day, respectively [1]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：长假前市场谨慎 关注宏观波动 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 2 月 12 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝区间震荡。宏观上非农就业者上个月增加了 13 万人， 失业率下降至 4.3%，就业数据表现强于预期，促使交易员下调对美联储今 年降息幅度的预期。 以伊冲突 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent depreciation of the US dollar against various currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, driven by market concerns over the US economic outlook and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4][5]. Group 1: Currency Movements - On February 11, the US dollar depreciated significantly against the Japanese yen, reaching a low of 152.5 to 152.9 yen per dollar, marking the largest depreciation in two weeks [2]. - The dollar also fell to a two-week low against the euro and Swiss franc, with the dollar index dropping to the 96 range, indicating a broader decline in the dollar's value [4]. - Following the release of better-than-expected US employment statistics on February 11, the dollar briefly rebounded to 154.5 to 154.9 yen per dollar, although trading volumes were low due to a holiday in Japan [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The US Commerce Department reported that retail sales for December 2025 were flat, below the expected growth of 0.4%, contributing to concerns about a slowing US economy and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. - Market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts around June, and some analysts suggesting a possibility of cuts as early as spring [7]. - The market's confidence in US dollar assets is waning, partly due to reports that the Chinese government has advised its banks to limit their holdings of US Treasury bonds, indicating a global trend of reducing reliance on dollar assets [7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical risks stemming from actions and statements by US President Trump are also contributing to the dollar's weakness, with analysts noting a reflexive market response to his behavior [8]. - There is a prevailing belief that the yen may continue to depreciate under the new Japanese government led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, with expectations of ongoing fluctuations in the exchange rate between 159 yen and 152 yen per dollar [8]. - Prime Minister Kishida is expected to visit the US on March 19 for discussions with Trump, which may influence future currency movements and trade negotiations [8].

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Aluminum: High-level oscillation [1] - Alumina: Excess pattern remains unchanged [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report updates the fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy in both the futures and spot markets, including prices, trading volumes, positions, spreads, inventories, and corporate profits [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 23,660 yuan, up 145 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 146,496 lots, a decrease of 42,086 lots from T - 1; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 3,117 US dollars, up 12 US dollars from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2,842 yuan, up 7 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 438,077 lots, an increase of 74,829 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 22,205 yuan, up 85 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 5,554 lots, a decrease of 412 lots from T - 1 [1]. Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 875,000 tons, unchanged from T - 1; the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipts were 167,600 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from T - 1; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 485,800 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from T - 1 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,646 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the CIF price of alumina in Lianyungang was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The price of Australian imported bauxite (Al: 48 - 50%, Si: 8 - 10%) was 48 US dollars/ton, unchanged from T - 1; the price of Guinean imported bauxite (Al: 43 - 45%, Si: 2 - 3%) was 61 US dollars/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 522 yuan, a decrease of 174 yuan from T - 1; the three - place inventory totaled 40,693 tons, a decrease of 195 tons from T - 1 [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ion - membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2,275 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [1].

2026年2月12日，推迟近一周的美国1月非农就业数据意外向好，短暂提振美元指数冲高，但多头未能守 涨，尾盘回吐多数涨幅后小幅收涨。尽管非农带来短期拉升，但美联储年内降息预期未根本改变，叠加 技术面承压，美元指数仍维持震荡偏弱格局，后续走势取决于通胀数据及美联储政策指引。 当地时间2月11日，美国劳工统计局数据显示，1月非农就业人口新增13万人(预期5.5万人)，较去年12月 下修后的4.8万人显著回升；失业率降至4.3%(预期4.4%)，更广泛失业指标降至8%(环比降0.4个百分 点)，印证就业市场回暖。 就业增长呈行业分化：医疗保健(+8.2万)、社会援助(+4.2万)为主要增长动力，建筑业回暖新增3.3万岗 位；而联邦政府(-3.4万)、金融行业(-2.2万)出现岗位流失。 本次报告包含2025年3月前一年基准修正数据，初始就业累计下修89.8万人(略低于预估91.1万人)。2025 年美国非农就业持续疲软，多月份负增长且全部数据遭下修，这一趋势未因前劳工统计局局长被解雇而 改变。 美联储官员表态分化：旧金山联储主席戴利于2月6日表示，美联储或需再降息1-2次应对劳动力市场疲 软，前提是关税影响消退、通 ...