Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core Viewpoints - Since Q3 2025, there has been a prevalent bearish sentiment in the bond market, with long - term bonds significantly adjusted and the term spread of ultra - long bonds notably widened. The current central economic work conference indicates that the current situation is still in a cycle of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected [2]. - The net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 may slightly expand, with the deficit rate likely to remain around 4%. Under debt resolution, the financing demand of urban investment and credit demand may continue to be weak [2]. - The importance of social financing growth rate may decline, and the future may gradually淡化 the total social financing target and shift more towards interest rate regulation. It is expected that the social financing increment in 2026 will be around 34 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate will gradually drop to about 7.3% [2]. - Currently, the conditions for a further reduction in policy interest rates may be met. It is recommended to patiently wait for the policy interest rate cut, and it is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter [2]. - It is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]. Summaries Based on Related Content Bond Market Situation - As of December 11, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased by 22BP compared to January 2, the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 38BP, and the yield of 5 - year commercial bank secondary capital bonds (AAA -) increased by 44BP. The "30Y - 10Y" treasury bond term spread reached 39BP on December 11, close to the upper limit of the [10,43]BP range since early 2023 [2]. Government Bond Financing - The central economic work conference's statement implies that the deficit rate in 2026 may remain around 4%, and the net issuance scale of government bonds may remain relatively stable. It is expected that the net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 will be about 14.5 trillion yuan, a slight increase year - on - year [2]. Social Financing - The central economic work conference did not mention the matching of social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level targets as in 2024. It is expected that the social financing increment in 2026 will be about 34 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate will gradually drop to about 7.3% [2]. Policy Interest Rate - The conditions for a policy interest rate cut may be met. The Fed cut interest rates by 75BP in the second half of the year, the Sino - US interest rate spread inversion has been significantly alleviated, the RMB exchange rate has changed from depreciation to a slight appreciation, the cost rate of banks' interest - bearing liabilities has declined steadily, and the economy is under downward pressure [2]. Bond Market Outlook - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter. In the long - term, the yield of 30Y treasury bonds is expected to fall below 2% [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Currently, it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]

Group 1 - The monetary policy for 2026 is set to be "moderately loose," emphasizing "flexible and efficient use of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts" alongside "reasonable recovery of prices," shifting the focus from scale expansion to precise regulation and structural optimization [1][2] - The core objectives of the monetary policy now include "promoting reasonable price recovery" alongside "stabilizing economic growth," aiming to alleviate the current structural contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" [2] - The policy will likely involve 1-2 RRR or interest rate cuts in 2026, with potential reductions of 10-50 basis points, and will emphasize coordination with a more proactive fiscal policy, including an expansion of special bonds and targeted funding towards technology innovation and green industries [3] Group 2 - The central bank's operational logic is shifting from traditional "interest rate cuts to promote inflation" to a focus on supply-side reforms and demand activation, aiming to reduce ineffective production capacity and enhance consumer spending through fiscal measures [4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to moderately rise to a target range of 0.4%-0.6%, while caution is advised regarding market distortions such as "price increases followed by subsidies" [5] Group 3 - External pressures are easing with the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate cuts, which have reduced the US-China interest rate differential, providing a window for domestic interest rate reductions [6] - The strategy includes expanding exports of "new three items" (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, etc.) to counteract risks from US tariffs and global supply chain issues, while also focusing on financial safety and optimizing local debt restructuring [7] Group 4 - Financing costs for enterprises are expected to decrease further, particularly benefiting technology and green sectors, while personal mortgage rates are likely to continue their downward trend, alleviating household leverage through policies supporting the acquisition of existing homes [8] - The loose liquidity is expected to support a structural market in A-shares, with a focus on technology (AI, robotics) and cyclical sectors (electricity, chemicals), while the value of national bonds and technology innovation bonds is becoming more prominent, attracting foreign investment in RMB assets [9]

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 免责声明 报告摘要 降准降息或将较快落地 降准和降息共同受到的制约：货币政策的空间。当前7D OMO利率为1.4%，倘若每次降10bp的话，在降14次后 便会触及零利率。当前大型银行的存款准备金率为7.5%，倘若每次降0.5个百分点的话，在降5次后便会触及 5%的隐性下限，在降15次后便会触及其理论下限。当然，在法储率触及下限后还可以通过公开市场买入国债 等方式释放长期流动性。此外，也可通过优化准备金缴存制度等方式，在法储率不变的背景下释放流动性。 降准有而降息没有的作用：补充低成本的长期流动性。在诸多主流货币政策工具中，唯有降准和公开市场买入 国债可向银行体系主动投放长期流动性，而MLF、7天期逆回购和其他期限逆回购等工具只能提供中短 ...

12月10日至11日在北京举行的中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。 继续保持市场流动性充裕 会议指出，把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。 申万宏源证券首席经济学家赵伟认为，这表明物价作为反映供需的信号，成为政策关注变量，而货币政策与经济增长、物 价的关联也进一步被明确。 具体操作层面，会议指出，"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"。 本报记者 韩昱 "这延续了去年中央经济工作会议基调，表明我国在'十五五'开局之年仍需以适度宽松的货币金融环境支持实体经济高质量 发展。"民生银行首席经济学家温彬在接受《证券日报》记者采访时说。 货币政策作为宏观经济调控的核心工具，本次会议释放的信号对明年的货币政策有哪些指引？业界又有哪些具体期待？ 《证券日报》记者就此采访了多位专家进行解读。 从幅度看，东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳预计，综合明年经济金融形势以及物价走势，政策性降息幅度有可能达到0.2 个百分点至0.3个百分点，降准幅度有望达到1个百分点，上半年、下半年分别实施一次。 "从稳定明年一季度宏观经济运行等角度出发，不排除今年底明年初降息降准落地的可能。"冯琳进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises, while also managing financial risks and promoting high-level financial openness [3][8]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC aims to build a scientific and robust monetary policy system, focusing on dynamic assessment and enhancement of the monetary policy framework, and improving the execution and transmission of monetary policy [5][6]. - Experts suggest that the monetary policy should balance short-term and long-term goals, as well as internal and external factors, to enhance the adaptability and precision of financial support for structural adjustments and high-quality development [6][7]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC plans to utilize various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and support the real economy [8]. - The central bank will also employ a range of liquidity injection tools, such as reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), to ensure a moderately loose liquidity environment [8]. Group 3: Financial Risk Management - The PBOC identifies the prevention and resolution of financial risks in key areas, particularly in real estate, financing platform debts, and risks associated with small financial institutions, as critical tasks moving forward [10][11]. - The focus on risk resolution has shifted, with an emphasis on market-oriented and legal principles to address the debts of financing platforms and manage risks in small financial institutions [11].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Direction - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy to support key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [1][4] - The central bank outlines five main directions for its work in the coming year, including improving the central bank system and preventing financial risks in key areas [1][6] Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC aims to construct a scientific and robust monetary policy system, focusing on dynamic assessment and enhancement of the monetary policy framework [2][3] - Experts suggest that the monetary policy should balance short-term and long-term goals, as well as internal and external factors, to ensure effective financial support for high-quality development [2][3] Group 3: Tools and Implementation - The central bank plans to utilize various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain liquidity and support the real economy [4][5] - There is an emphasis on flexible and efficient policy implementation, with a focus on balancing multiple objectives to improve the quality and long-term effects of monetary policy [4][5] Group 4: Financial Risk Management - The PBOC identifies the prevention and resolution of financial risks in key areas, such as real estate and small financial institutions, as a critical task moving forward [6] - The central bank is committed to market-oriented and legal principles in addressing risks associated with financing platforms and small financial institutions [6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a flexible and efficient monetary policy, focusing on balancing multiple objectives while implementing appropriate measures in response to economic conditions [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC aims to build a scientific and robust monetary policy system, enhancing the evaluation and improvement of the monetary policy framework and expanding the toolbox for monetary policy [2][3]. - Key aspects include optimizing the base currency issuance mechanism, reducing focus on quantitative targets, and maintaining reasonable growth in financial totals [3]. - The PBOC will also work on establishing a market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, transitioning towards a price-based regulatory system [3]. Group 2: Policy Tools and Implementation - The central economic work conference confirmed the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy in the coming year, with flexible use of tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [4]. - The PBOC will maintain ample liquidity and support the real economy while ensuring the effective implementation of monetary policies [4]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC may narrow the interest rate corridor and stabilize the yield curve of government bonds to enhance the transmission effect of monetary policy [5]. Group 3: Financial Risk Management - A significant focus for the PBOC will be on preventing and mitigating financial risks in key areas, particularly in real estate, financing platform debt, and risks associated with small and medium-sized financial institutions [6]. - The PBOC is committed to supporting the resolution of financing platform debt risks and managing real estate finance with a macro-prudential approach [6]. - The ongoing risk management efforts will likely lead to a shift towards the resolution of operational debts of financing platforms, with an emphasis on the reform and sustainable development of small financial institutions [6].

来源：@华夏时报微博 华夏时报记者 刘佳 北京报道 2026年货币政策权威方向，由中央经济工作会议正式定调。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作，为全年宏观调 控划定核心方向。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大 逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物 价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策 传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水 平上的基本稳定。 在多位受访人士看来，此次会议为2026年经济工作定下"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，明确传递出宏观政策将 更加积极有力，以推动宏观经济实现"质的有效提升和量的合理增长"。 值得关注的是，关于总量型货币政策工具，会议将去年的"适时降准降息"调整为"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政 策工具"，这一表述变化意味着降准降息仍是明年货币政策操作的可选项，同时强调灵活性与实效性，既 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" in the economic work for the upcoming year, indicating a shift towards higher standards for development quality and effectiveness while maintaining reasonable economic growth [2][4] - The 2026 macroeconomic policy is expected to be more forward-looking, aiming to lay a foundation for high-quality development over the next five years [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for coordinated policies across fiscal, monetary, and industrial sectors, combining traditional and innovative tools to promote high-quality economic growth [4] Group 2 - The central economic work meeting proposed to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [5] - It is anticipated that in 2026, deposit rates and policy rates will further decline, with the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) expected to stabilize or decrease slightly, emphasizing the use of structural monetary policy tools to direct financial resources towards technology innovation, green development, and boosting consumption [5][7] - The meeting stressed the importance of policy coordination, integrating both stock and incremental policies to enhance the consistency and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies [8][10]

记者 辛圆 11月末，广义货币(M2)余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8%，涨幅较上月回落0.2个百分点。狭义货币(M1)余额112.89万亿元，同比增长4.9%，涨幅较上月回落 1.3个百分点。 据新华社消息，12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。在部署明年货币政策时，会议称，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，并提出"灵活高效运 用降准降息等多种政策工具"。 分析师表示，总体来看，货币政策延续了"适度宽松"基调，降准降息仍然可期，但会更加注重"相机抉择"以提高实施质效。 中国人民银行周五发布2025年1-11月金融统计数据报告。数据显示，前11个月社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，超过去年全年水平。 从企业和居民需求看，前11个月人民币贷款增加15.36万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增加5333亿元，其中，短期贷款减少7328亿元，中长期贷款增加1.27万亿 元；企（事）业单位贷款增加14.4万亿元，其中，短期贷款增加4.44万亿元，中长期贷款增加8.49万亿元，票据融资增加1.31万亿元；非银行业金融机构贷款 减少332亿元。 另外，前11个月人民币存款增加24.73万亿元。其中，住户存款增加1 ...