【导读】高盛最新发声：维持对中国股票的超配态度，民营企业机会回归 6月23日，高盛中国股票策略分析师付思在上海表示，高盛维持对中国股票的超配态度。行业和主题方 面，高盛看好私营企业龙头、AI概念、出口新兴市场的企业以及受益于政府财政支出的板块。 高盛中国经济学家王立升认为，今年上半年中国经济显示韧性，大规模刺激政策出台概率或较低。不 过，下半年政策仍有加码的必要性，以对冲关税政策不确定性带来的影响。他认为，中东地缘冲突带来 的不确定性对中国经济的影响可控。 下半年政策或加码 今年一季度，中国GDP增速达5.4%，高于预期，而4月、5月的数据也显示出经济增长依然稳健，预计 二季度GDP增速约为5%，上半年整体增速有望达5.2%左右。高盛认为，中国经济表现出较强韧性，大 规模刺激政策出台的概率偏低，预计下半年有进一步宽松政策出台，政策在消费和投资端将有所加码。 高盛指出，当前新增住房需求已筑底，房地产正从"增量市场"向"存量市场"过渡。高盛预计，2025年四 季度将有一次降准和一次降息。此外，房地产收储、城中村改造等将成为去库存的重要手段，但短期来 看，一、二线城市房价或企稳，三、四线城市因高库存和人口外流压力较 ...

Group 1 - China's exports have evolved beyond simple goods, deeply embedding into the daily lives of billions globally [2] - The photovoltaic industry is adapting to challenges and seeking new markets amid geopolitical tensions [3] - Huole Technology has secured several million in Pre-B round financing, collaborating with over 50 global hardware manufacturers [4] Group 2 - Global Robotaxi players are racing towards commercialization, with Tesla initiating a pilot program in Austin, Texas [5] - Guangdong province is supporting e-commerce companies in establishing export-to-domestic sales zones and providing financial incentives [6] - AliExpress has been recognized as the top e-commerce platform in the Kantar BrandZ Globalization Brand List [7] Group 3 - Yikong Zhijia has completed over 400 million in D round financing, focusing on autonomous driving product development and international expansion [7] - CP Group has formed a strategic partnership with Ningji, enhancing its market presence [8] - Dongshan Precision expects its Thailand factory to achieve mass production in the second half of the year [8] Group 4 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed strong opposition to the EU's restrictions on Chinese companies in public procurement [8] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade is facilitating exchanges between Chinese and American businesses [9] - A program in Indonesia aims to help Chinese companies navigate the healthcare market [9]

Industry Overview - China's cross-border e-commerce export scale has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, reaching 2.15 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, accounting for 8.5% of total goods trade exports [1] - The total cross-border e-commerce import and export scale is approximately 2.71 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14%, which is 9 percentage points higher than the overall goods trade growth rate [1] - The micro-short drama market in China has reached a scale of 50.5 billion yuan in 2024, surpassing annual box office revenue for films for the first time [3] - Over 30,000 pet merchants participated in Tmall's 618 overseas promotion, with more than 1,000 merchants seeing their cross-border transaction volume double year-on-year [4] Company Developments - The Export-Import Bank of China has introduced a special work plan to enhance financial support for foreign trade, focusing on helping enterprises "go global" and improving financial services for small and micro foreign trade companies [2] - Alibaba International Station reported a 42% year-on-year increase in platform orders since June, with GMV maintaining nearly 30% strong growth [10] - JD Logistics launched a new self-operated B2C express brand "JoyExpress" in Saudi Arabia, offering fast delivery services and local customer support [12] - SHEIN has implemented over 650 energy-saving measures, helping suppliers reduce carbon emissions by over 75,000 tons [13] - Meitu Xiuxiu has achieved significant success in the European market, topping the App Store category charts in Italy, Russia, and Turkey [14] - Anker Innovations has initiated a recall of certain batches of power bank products due to safety risks, following quality checks that revealed issues with a supplier's battery cells [17] - Laopuyuan has opened its first overseas store in Singapore, marking a key step in its global expansion strategy [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the "new consumption" sector, particularly focusing on Pop Mart and its associated IPs, highlighting concerns over valuation and market sustainability following a rapid price drop in collectibles and stocks [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Pop Mart's stock price fell from a high of 283.4 HKD per share on June 12 to 239.6 HKD per share by June 20, marking a decline of over 15% [6][5]. - The market capitalization of Pop Mart decreased by more than 50 billion HKD from its peak of 3800 billion HKD [6]. - Other companies in the "new consumption" sector, such as Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Group, also experienced significant declines of approximately 19% and 17%, respectively [2][8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Fund managers are divided in their outlook on the new consumption sector, with some optimistic about its growth potential while others express concerns over inflated valuations and potential bubbles [3][9]. - The recent market correction is viewed as a "stress test" for new consumption companies, providing an opportunity to reassess investment strategies and focus on genuine consumer demand rather than speculative trends [4][16]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - As of June 20, Pop Mart had a dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 95.3, significantly higher than traditional consumer leaders like Kweichow Moutai, which has a P/E ratio of 20.2 [10][11]. - The article highlights that the valuation of Pop Mart and other new consumption companies may not be sustainable, especially when compared to established global brands like Disney and Hasbro [11][12]. - Some fund managers argue that the current market conditions reflect a speculative bubble, with valuations not justified by underlying business fundamentals [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn, some fund managers remain optimistic about the long-term growth potential of new consumption companies, citing ongoing consumer interest and market expansion opportunities [13][14]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer behavior and preferences in the new consumption landscape, suggesting that future investment strategies should focus on demographic insights rather than traditional metrics [19][20].

Core Insights - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry possesses advantages in population and domestic demand, manufacturing and supply chain, and rapidly improving innovation capabilities, while the number of Chinese assets going abroad continues to rise [1][2] - In the face of external challenges, the industry needs to focus on domestic stability and external expansion, emphasizing supply chain autonomy, innovation, and integration domestically, while accelerating internationalization to seize global opportunities [1][2] Domestic Focus - Policy outlook indicates that reforms are entering a deep-water zone, with high-quality growth becoming the norm; key areas of focus include optimization of drug and consumable procurement policies, diversified payment methods, and medical service price reforms by the second half of 2025 [3] - The pharmaceutical supply chain is undergoing optimization and active innovation transformation, with a focus on supply chain security [3] - There are positive prospects for import substitution and merger integration opportunities in medical devices, with attention to new technology directions such as AI and brain-machine interfaces [3] - The industry is observing a recovery rhythm and long-term transformation in traditional Chinese medicine, pharmacies, distribution, medical services, and vaccines [3] External Expansion - Chinese innovations in pharmaceuticals are gaining recognition on the international stage, with ongoing strengthening of industry trends [4] - The pharmaceutical upstream and life sciences sectors are actively exploring overseas markets to seek a second growth curve [4] - Short-term tariff disruptions in raw materials are limited, with a focus on industry transformation opportunities [4] - The trend of internationalization in medical devices is firmly supported, with attention to opportunities for independent sales and business development of certain innovative devices [4] - The introduction of immunoglobulin provides opportunities for blood products to go abroad, with ongoing progress in overseas registration [4] - The export of vaccines is becoming more diversified, with an expected acceleration in progress [4] Investment Outlook for Second Half of 2025 - The focus on innovation will center around innovative drugs and pharmaceutical companies (e.g., bispecific antibodies, T-cell engagers, nuclear medicine) and medical devices (e.g., AI, brain-machine interfaces) [5] - The export focus will highlight representative segments such as innovative drugs and medical device companies [5] - Marginal changes will be driven by policy improvements (including pharmaceutical distribution and medical equipment updates) and supply-demand relationship improvements in sectors like CXO, life sciences, and upstream biopharmaceuticals [5] - The integration focus will recommend attention to medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine sub-sectors, certain pharmaceutical companies, and state-owned enterprises [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant developments in the global expansion of various companies, particularly in the e-commerce and logistics sectors, emphasizing strategic investments and market adaptations to enhance competitiveness and operational efficiency [2][3]. Group 1: Major Events in Global Expansion - SHEIN has increased its investment in Europe by launching a new shipping subsidy program for sellers, aiming to reduce logistics costs and enhance local operations in key markets like Germany, France, and Italy [5][6]. - Temu has established an office in Turkey and plans to set up a logistics center in Istanbul to offer next-day delivery services, responding to local regulatory changes that require international e-commerce platforms to have a local presence [10][11]. - TikTok Shop and Tokopedia have officially merged their seller centers in Indonesia, resulting in a significant increase in transaction volumes for many sellers [16]. Group 2: Company Strategies and Market Adaptations - JD.com's international strategy focuses on local e-commerce rather than cross-border models, with over 2,000 employees dedicated to local procurement and delivery [20]. - AliExpress has launched a local fulfillment service in Europe, acquiring multiple warehouses to improve delivery times and adapt to new EU VAT regulations [15]. - Temu has seen a 22% increase in website traffic in Australia following the exit of local competitor Catch, indicating its growing market presence [11]. Group 3: Investment and Financing Activities - North American logistics company UniUni has completed a D1 funding round, raising over $70 million to enhance its digital capabilities and logistics operations [49]. - Chime Financial went public on NASDAQ, with its stock price rising 59% on the first day, reflecting strong investor interest in fintech solutions targeting low-income consumers [47]. - Lenskart, an Indian eyewear retailer, plans to file for a $1 billion IPO to support its business expansion [51]. Group 4: Market Trends and Insights - The European e-commerce market is projected to reach $1.38 trillion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.95% from 2025 to 2029 [6]. - Jumia, Africa's largest e-commerce platform, reports that over one-third of its sales come from Chinese sellers, highlighting the growing influence of Chinese businesses in the African market [42][43]. - The competitive landscape in the U.S. food delivery market is intensifying, with DoorDash and Uber vying for market share amid a wave of acquisitions [40].

Core Viewpoint - Entrepreneurs should embrace AI and explore international markets to create their "second self" in the evolving global landscape [1][2][6]. Group 1: Embracing Change - The current global environment is undergoing significant changes, and businesses should not only focus on domestic markets but also look towards international opportunities [6][7]. - Companies need to balance their current business development while also considering future prospects in AI and international expansion [8][10]. Group 2: AI Implementation - The company is launching an AI practical training program aimed at small and medium enterprises, providing resources and methodologies for integrating AI into core business processes [11]. - The "Tianqi Policy Big Model" developed by the company has become a key service provider in the national network for policy-related services, showcasing its capability in AI implementation [12][13]. Group 3: Collaboration and Resources - The company collaborates with major AI research and service firms across China, positioning itself as a pioneer in the industrial AI transformation [14]. - The upcoming AI practical training camp is designed to help businesses overcome growth challenges through AI applications [15].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese companies are increasingly expanding overseas, particularly in Europe and Latin America, driven by strategic adjustments in risk management and localization efforts, while the cross-border e-commerce sector is experiencing significant growth and transformation [1][5]. Industry Environment - Chinese e-commerce is accelerating globalization, with a projected cross-border e-commerce total of 2.63 trillion yuan by 2024, leveraging efficient supply chains and cost advantages. Platforms like Temu, TikTok Shop, and SHEIN are attracting overseas users through low prices and localized operations, despite challenges in data compliance and inventory management [2]. - The key to improving performance in the cross-border e-commerce sector lies in enhancing user repurchase rates rather than solely acquiring new customers. Factors such as product and service quality, low order dispute rates, and high responsiveness are crucial for building user trust and satisfaction [3]. - The domestic animation industry is evolving from relying on hit products to a more diversified and systematic development approach, utilizing streaming platforms and social media for global outreach [4]. - Chinese enterprises are accelerating their presence in the Latin American market, with investments in digital infrastructure and services, particularly in Brazil, which serves as a key economic hub [5]. - Chinese companies are adapting their European expansion strategies, shifting from cost-driven to strategic survival approaches, with a focus on risk diversification and operational efficiency [6]. Key Developments - Chinese payment institutions are rapidly expanding overseas, with companies like移卡 and PingPong obtaining licenses in the U.S. and Malaysia, respectively, to enhance their global strategies [9]. - The success rate for Chinese companies going abroad is below 20%, making country selection critical. Markets like ASEAN and Africa are gaining attention due to their young populations and growth potential [10]. - The Chinese home appliance industry is witnessing a trend towards globalization and premiumization, with major players like Midea and Haier focusing on brand positioning to increase market share [11]. - Various overseas expansion models are being analyzed, emphasizing the importance of adapting strategies based on local conditions and regulatory environments [12]. - Meituan's 小象超市 is entering the Saudi market with an instant retail model, aiming to replicate its success in other regions [14]. - Insta360 is set to raise 464 million yuan through an IPO, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from overseas markets [15]. - GAC Group is collaborating with Alibaba Cloud to address challenges in overseas expansion, focusing on infrastructure and service ecosystems [19]. - Baidu's autonomous driving service is expanding internationally, with a focus on adapting to diverse global markets [20][21]. - The Chinese menswear brand Li Lang has opened its first overseas store in Malaysia, targeting the Southeast Asian market [22].

Core Insights - The consumer industry is facing increasing competition and challenges, leading many founders to reconsider their strategies and mindset in the face of prolonged cycles [1][2] - Founders are encouraged to shift their perspectives and strengthen their resolve to find opportunities amidst difficulties [1] - A closed-door meeting organized by "Waves of New Consumption" focused on how founders can adapt to the deep waters of consumer entrepreneurship [1] Group 1: Entrepreneurial Mindset - The pace of brand growth should align with individual character and mindset, emphasizing the importance of a steady approach over a fast one [4][5] - Personal choices significantly influence business decisions, with a "Nine-Level Tower Model" illustrating the trade-offs associated with climbing higher in business [6][7] - The journey of entrepreneurship is likened to a wilderness, where optimism and relaxation are essential regardless of market conditions [13][16] Group 2: Brand Growth and Market Dynamics - Brands that continue to grow post-hype are often those without significant weaknesses, as opposed to those that relied solely on market trends [10][12] - The rapid growth phase may not reflect a company's true capabilities, and many brands have experienced a return to fundamental business principles after initial success [11][12] - The consumer landscape is cyclical, with periods of rapid growth followed by slower phases, necessitating careful judgment on whether to continue pursuing aggressive growth [12][30] Group 3: Lessons from the Investment Landscape - The investment landscape for consumer brands has evolved, with a significant influx of capital leading to inflated valuations and unrealistic expectations [21][23] - Many companies that received substantial funding were unable to manage it effectively, resulting in a decline in performance as market conditions changed [23][25] - The importance of understanding the limitations of capital in driving growth is highlighted, with a focus on sustainable business practices over rapid expansion [28][29] Group 4: Future Opportunities and Strategic Shifts - Emerging opportunities in sectors like health and wellness are noted, with a call for companies to adapt to changing consumer needs and preferences [26][29] - The need for a shift from a focus on rapid growth to a more sustainable, value-driven approach is emphasized, as the consumer market becomes increasingly competitive [30][32] - Companies are encouraged to adopt a mindset of steady progress and resilience, recognizing that long-term success is built on consistent effort rather than short-term gains [34][35]

Core Insights - The "618" shopping festival this year showed a decline compared to previous years, but still received positive responses from merchants amid changing international trade dynamics and pressure on the domestic consumption market [1][6] - Home products, particularly well-known brands, experienced significant sales growth during the "618" period, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [1][2] - The promotional strategies have evolved, with many merchants focusing on international markets, suggesting that "618" and "Double 11" could become global shopping festivals in the future [1][5][7] Home Product Promotions - Sales of home products during this year's "618" were optimistic, with high-end smart toilets seeing a 45% year-on-year increase in sales on JD platform [1] - Other home appliances and small kitchen gadgets, such as multi-functional cooking pots and electronic scales, also saw over 100% year-on-year growth [1] - Suning reported a 69% year-on-year increase in sales of cleaning appliances and smart small home appliances since the start of the promotion [2] Popular Home Products - The most popular home products this year included small kitchen appliances like mini rice cookers and multifunctional steamers, particularly favored by younger consumers [3][4] - Prices of various kitchen small appliances have increased, with rice cookers up 20.74% and steamers up 37.42% year-on-year [3] - Smart small appliances and cooling products gained traction, with portable fans seeing a 300% increase in sales [3] Shift from Domestic to International Markets - The concept of "involution" has led many merchants to shift their focus from domestic competition to international markets, particularly Southeast Asia [5][6] - The Southeast Asian e-commerce market has shown significant growth, with a 123% year-on-year increase in GMV reported by TikTok Shop [6] - The stable policy environment in Southeast Asia is seen as advantageous for merchants looking to expand internationally [6]