Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the launch of a two-month nationwide campaign by the Central Cyberspace Administration to address the dissemination of false information by self-media platforms, focusing on four major issues related to misleading public information and the manipulation of narratives. Group 1: Major Issues Addressed - Maliciously exploiting public interest by impersonating individuals involved in significant events or public figures to mislead the audience [1][2] - Distorting facts using artificial intelligence and other means to create false narratives that deceive the public [3] - Misrepresentation of policies and regulations that affect public interests, spreading false information about potential changes or significant events [5][6] Group 2: Information Authenticity Concerns - Failure to accurately label sources of information related to current events, public policies, and social issues, leading to confusion about the authenticity of the content [8][9] - Use of misleading labels or incorrect source citations that prevent the public from tracing the true origin of the information [10][11] Group 3: Professional Integrity Issues - Publishing unverified or scientifically inaccurate information under the guise of professional expertise, including the misuse of credentials [12][13] - Creating tutorials that promote deceptive practices to gain attention and disrupt the order of information dissemination [14]

距离美国的所谓8月1日"关税大限"日益逼近，美欧贸易协议也已经尘埃落定（至少表面上是），"懂王"特朗普自然轻松不少。 关税通牒 当地时间7月28日，特朗普表示，预计美国将对那些没有与华盛顿达成贸易协议的国家征收15%至20%的关税。其表示，美国将很快向大约200个国家发出关 税信函。这一消息很快再度引发全球媒体的热议。 特朗普此前已多次表示"时间有限""更愿意发封信设关税，而非寻求协议"。对于15%到20%的关税税率，特朗普称"我已经算是很友好了"。 另外，虽然美国目前已敲定与多个大国、包括欧盟之间的贸易协议，但不少细节尚未落实，其中存在不少的分歧，各国反对声浪不断高涨。 近日，法国总理贝鲁在社交媒体发文，批评美欧贸易协议。贝鲁在文中将美欧之间的贸易协议称为"冯德莱恩-特朗普协议"。他表示，欧盟始终团结一致捍 卫自身的价值与利益，但最终却选择了屈服，"那是一个黑暗的日子"。 匈牙利总理欧尔班表示，欧美协定比英美协定更为糟糕。欧尔班对欧盟将投资美国、向美方购买军事装备和能源表示强烈质疑，因为欧盟委员会既没有资金 也没有军队。 有分析人士指出，特朗普常常声称某些关税条款已经达成一致，但实际情况并没有他讲的那么明确 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The near - term is affected by the continuous decline in airlines' prices in early August. The US - EU - China tariff talks may provide emotional support, but the outcome of the China - US talks is not expected to be better than market expectations, and the probability of postponed or over 20% tariffs is higher [7]. - The spot price basically peaked at the end of July. Airlines continued to use the late - July freight rates in early August but gradually lowered them as the booking time approached. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the high - capacity deployment in early August weakened the effect of the domestic cargo rolling pool. Spot prices are expected to peak at the end of July or early August, decline slowly until late August, and then the decline rate will increase. The main focus of the 10 - contract is the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Rate Index**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is currently at 1593, down 3.30% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1261, down 3.23%. Among different routes, SCFI - US West decreased by 3.50%, SCFIS - US West by 1.31%, SCFI - US East by 6.48%, SCFI - Northwest Europe by 0.53%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe by 3.50%, and SCFI - Mediterranean by 4.35% [5]. - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2508, etc., the current values and their changes compared to the previous values are presented. For example, EC2506 is currently at 1493.6, down 1.61% [5]. - **Contract Positions**: The current and previous positions of contracts like EC2606, EC2508, etc., and their changes are given. For instance, the current position of EC2606 is 832, with an increase compared to the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The current and previous values of monthly spreads such as 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4, and their changes are provided. For example, the 10 - 12 spread is currently 680.4, down 4.7 from the previous value [5]. Market Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 - contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [9].

当前美国对进口商品征收的关税税率，最终稳定在略低于特朗普4月威胁水平的区间。但这微妙的差 异，已足够缓解华尔街对经济衰退的最深重忧虑。 摩根士丹利策略师迈克尔·泽萨斯（Michael Zezas）撰文称："我们仍认为最可能的结果是低速增长伴随 顽固通胀：虽非衰退，但贸易管制和移民政策对增长的负面影响，将超过放松监管与财政刺激的提振作 用。" 需要明确的是，贸易谈判的最终结局仍存变数。在特朗普设定的8月1日最后期限前，仍有包括日本在内 的多项贸易议题待解，这些都可能催生影响美国主要贸易伙伴的高额关税。 泽萨斯补充道："贸易摩擦若继续升级，可能轻易将天平推向温和衰退。总体而言，美国经济更倾向减 速轨道，但随着财政状况和赤字问题提前明朗化，深度衰退风险正在消退。" 美欧协议将为美联储本周评估关税对通胀影响提供新素材。自特朗普上任以来，美联储始终维持基准短 期利率稳定，主因决策者对关税通胀效应持谨慎态度。市场预计周三结束的议息会议不会采取行动，但 将密切关注美联储政策意向——这取决于最终有效关税率的落点。若经济走弱同时通胀受控，美联储9 月降息概率将显著提升。 花旗经济学家安德鲁·霍伦霍斯特（Andrew Holle ...

泰国财政部长：相信美国对泰国的关税不会达到36%。 ...

Market Overview - UBS estimates recent global growth momentum corresponds to an annualized growth rate of only 13% [1] - UBS anticipates a short-term consolidation in global stock markets, with potential for further upside in the medium term, but also an increasing probability of a bubble [1] US Market Analysis - US stock market demonstrates resilience due to strong structural buying forces like corporate stock buybacks and individual pensions [2] - UBS expects continued positive earnings growth for US companies, driven by AI and a weaker dollar [2] Emerging Markets Analysis - UBS suggests emerging market stocks face downside risk as new reciprocal tariff rates are announced, with over 35% of their overall revenue coming from overseas [2] - Emerging markets do not appear to have priced in this risk [2] Monetary Policy - UBS anticipates potential for significant Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year due to a weakening labor market, leading to lower US Treasury yields [2] - UBS believes investors are overestimating the short-term increase in Treasury supply [2] - Stronger labor market data could lead the Federal Reserve to postpone rate cuts [2]

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 29 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 铜期货走弱，沪铜跌破趋势线，主因美元指数走强以及反内卷情绪消退带动抛售 增加，不过铜下方承接力较强，沪铜主力尾盘站上 7.9 万，近月结构由 C 转为平 水。日内现货跌 375 至 79075，升水跌 30 至 95，月末持货商抛售情绪强，周末社 库累库 0.61 至 12.03 万吨，本周国产到货增加或增加累库压力，LME0-3 为-53. ...

Group 1 - The recently announced US-EU trade agreement has faced strong criticism from Germany and France, with warnings that it could harm the EU economy and lead to increased inflation [1][2] - The agreement, described by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the "largest trade agreement in history," covers nearly 44% of global GDP and aims to prevent a transatlantic trade war [2] - The agreement secures a lower tariff rate for the EU compared to the threatened 30% tariffs by the US, but the new 15% tariff is still three times higher than the average tariffs prior to Trump's "Liberation Day" announcement in April [3] Group 2 - European stock markets reacted negatively to the agreement, with the German DAX index falling by 1% and the French CAC40 index down by 0.4%, as initial optimism was overshadowed by concerns over the EU's economic outlook [3] - The automotive sector, significantly impacted by the tariffs, saw a decline of 1.8% in the Stoxx Europe 600 index after an initial rise [3] - The US Chamber of Commerce welcomed the agreement but noted that the 15% tariff still represents a significant increase in trade costs, suggesting that more industries should be included in the zero-tariff list [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global trade situation is stabilizing as the US reaches trade agreements with major economies, leading to a high - risk appetite in the market, a stronger US dollar index, record - high US stocks, and price adjustments in various commodities [2][4]. - In China, the introduction of a parenting subsidy system is expected to boost rural birth rates and consumption. Market sentiment has shifted after the exchange introduced risk - control measures, and prices are back to being driven by fundamentals. There is a need to be vigilant about short - term market adjustments and to focus on economic data and trade negotiation progress [3]. - Different commodities are affected by various factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment, resulting in different price trends and outlooks [4][6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump plans to impose tariffs on drugs and keep global tariffs at 15 - 20%. The US and China are negotiating to extend the tariff and export - control truce for 90 days. Many countries are seeking tariff concessions from the US. The US is increasing pressure on Russia, causing oil prices to rise by over 2% [2]. - Domestic: The central government has introduced a parenting subsidy system, with each child receiving 3600 yuan per year until the age of 3. Market sentiment has changed after the exchange's risk - control measures, and the stock market is experiencing a volume - shrinking shock. There is a need to be cautious about short - term market adjustments and focus on economic data and trade negotiation progress [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious - metal futures prices continued to decline on Monday. The US has reached trade agreements with Japan, the EU, and China, and the US - EU new trade agreement has alleviated trade - war concerns. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week but anticipates a possible rate cut in September. Short - term precious - metal prices are expected to be weak, but the downside is limited [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper slightly declined, and the London copper faced resistance at the 10,000 - dollar mark. The market expects that Chile may get a copper - tariff exemption from the US, causing a significant drop in US copper prices. First Quantum's copper production in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. The copper price is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade talks [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum declined, and the London aluminum was flat. The US - EU trade agreement boosted the US dollar index, and the aluminum social inventory increased. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and inventory trends should be monitored [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures decreased significantly. The market sentiment continued to decline, and the futures contract saw a large - scale reduction in positions. The supply is stable recently, and the consumption side is cautious. Alumina is expected to be in a stalemate and fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc was weak. The market's optimistic sentiment cooled down, and the fundamentals remained weak. High prices inhibited downstream purchases, and inventories increased. The zinc price is expected to adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to trade talks and domestic policies [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated weakly. The supply of lead is increasing marginally, but the consumption improvement in the peak season is insufficient, and inventories have slightly increased. The lead price is under pressure but supported by costs, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin was weak. The market's optimistic sentiment cooled down, and the consumption in the off - season was poor. The supply increased while the demand was weak, and inventories increased for two consecutive weeks. The tin price is expected to adjust at a high level, but the adjustment space is relatively limited [13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon declined significantly. The supply is in a contraction trend, and the demand is weak overall. The futures price is expected to adjust in the short term to seek lower support [14][15]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, the carbonate - lithium futures price was weak, while the spot price rose significantly. The market is affected by anti - involution policies, and the short - term price is mainly driven by sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation [16][17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price fluctuated. The tariff risk is cooling down, but the domestic anti - involution policy is still uncertain. The terminal market is weak, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and domestic policies need to be monitored [18]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil fluctuated weakly during the day and opened higher at night. The acceleration of sanctions against Russia and the improvement of the macro - sentiment are pushing up oil prices. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [19]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated. Spot trading declined, and the fundamentals are in a weak balance. The futures price is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [20][21]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron - ore futures fluctuated at a high level. Overseas shipments increased, and arrivals decreased. The demand remains resilient, and the market is in a weak balance. The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate [22]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, bean and rapeseed meal futures declined. The good growth conditions of US soybeans, Argentina's reduction of soybean export tax rates, and the increase in domestic bean - meal inventories are factors affecting the market. The domestic bean - meal price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [23][24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Monday, palm - oil futures rose, while soybean and rapeseed oil futures declined. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in July, and the export demand decreased. The palm - oil price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [25][26][27]

Group 1 - The Japanese Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, emphasized the critical importance of consumption tax for the social security system, stating that lowering the consumption tax rate is inappropriate [1] - There is a significant focus on seeking U.S. executive orders regarding tariff issues, which is deemed important for Japan [1]