投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 9 日） 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 主 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 | 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均小幅震荡反弹。中长期的角度看，外部环境变数较大，需要稳定的内部环 境来对冲，宏观政策将逐渐加码，央行实施适度宽松的货币政策，国债中长 ...

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.62%, the 10-year main contract down 0.19%, the 5-year main contract down 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "24附息国债11" rose by 1.70 basis points to 1.6380%, while the yield on the 3-year government bond "25附息国债05" fell by 1.25 basis points to 1.4750% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 195.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a total bid amount of 195.5 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 530.8 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 335.3 billion yuan [2] - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates for deposit institutions both fell by over 4 basis points [2] Policy Measures - The central bank announced three categories of ten policies, including a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, which also led to a 10 basis point decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] - Structural policies include increasing the re-lending for technological innovation and technical transformation to 800 billion yuan and establishing a 500 billion yuan re-lending for consumption recovery and elderly care [3] Operational Recommendations - The recent announcement of reserve requirement and interest rate cuts aligns with expectations, suggesting that while bond supply may increase in May, the central bank's measures could stabilize the funding environment [4] - The short-term impact of the interest rate cut is expected to be limited, as long-term bond yields have already adjusted to reflect previous rate cut expectations [4] - The focus for the bond market will remain on funding conditions, fundamentals, and trade negotiations, with a recommendation to consider long positions after corrections [4]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Tech Index turned negative after initially rising nearly 3% [1] - The Hang Seng Index's gains narrowed to 0.5% [1]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国债期货收盘多数走低，银行间主要利率债收益率多数上行。存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率双降，均下行超7个bp。近日关税谈判有 了一些新的消息，但距达成协议料还有距离，对债市冲击暂时有限。若后续资金面保持此前的宽松状态，债市将持续获得支撑。 2、资金面：4月30日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4050亿元逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量4050亿元，中标量4050亿元。Wind数 据显示，当日10870亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放6820亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.0967，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为-0.0426，现券贴水期货，偏空。T主力基差0.0453，现券升水期货，偏多。 TL主 力基差为0.1231，现券升水期货，偏多。 4、库存：TS、TF、T主力可交割券余额分别为13594亿、14935亿、23566亿；中性。 国债期货早报- 2025年5月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - After the Politburo meeting at the end of April met expectations and the short - term negative impact of tariffs was fully priced in by the market, the bond market is likely to return to being fundamentally driven, and the interest rate center may decline further [2]. - The market expects the Fed to restart rate cuts around June, which may be a window for the central bank to implement monetary easing. Reserve requirement ratio cuts may take precedence over interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision on May 8th [2]. - Given the recent intensifying differentiation in the bond market, with short - term bond futures significantly weaker than long - term ones, if the short - end shows no signs of stabilization, beware of the risk of long - end bond price corrections. Wait for the short - end to stabilize before making band allocations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价为109.045，涨幅0%，成交量49555，减少366；TF主力收盘价106.060，跌幅0.04%，成交量46541，减少627；TS主力收盘价102.308，跌幅0.06%，成交量28361，增加430；TL主力收盘价120.970，涨幅0.11%，成交量61695，增加2011 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2509 - 2506价差为0.34，增加0.10；T2509 - 2506价差为0.17，增加0.03；TF2509 - 2506价差为0.33，增加0.04；TS2509 - 2506价差为0.28，增加0.02；T06 - TL06价差为 - 11.93，减少0.16；TF06 - T06价差为 - 2.99，减少0.08；TS06 - T06价差为 - 6.74，减少0.10；TS06 - TF06价差为 - 3.75，减少0.02 [2]. 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量189565，增加1545；T前20名多头持仓198120，增加3917；T前20名空头持仓209900，增加4231；T前20名净空仓11780，增加314；TF主力持仓量155595，减少1941；TF前20名多头持仓168105，减少209；TF前20名空头持仓183683，减少235；TF前20名净空仓15578，减少26；TS主力持仓量93460，增加212；TS前20名多头持仓108265，增加2849；TS前20名空头持仓126081，增加2354；TS前20名净空仓17816，减少495；TL主力持仓量102169，减少560；TL前20名多头持仓106317，增加619；TL前20名空头持仓111916，增加1308；TL前20名净空仓5599，增加689 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Prices) - 220003.IB（6y）净价107.4645，减少0.0173；240025.IB（6y）净价99.0955，增加0.0482；240014.IB（4y）净价101.6515，增加0.0378；220027.IB（4y）净价105.7009，增加0.0344；240024.IB（1.7y）净价99.3344，增加0.0157；240003.IB（1.9y）净价100.9807，增加0.0346；200012.IB（18y）净价138.2641，减少0.0471；210005.IB（18y）净价137.0061，减少0.1458 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bond Yields - 1年期收益率1.4500%，减少0.40bp；3年期收益率1.4750%，减少2.25bp；5年期收益率1.5000%，减少0.75bp；7年期收益率1.5800%，持平；10年期收益率1.6210%，减少0.50bp [2]. 3.6 Short - Term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.6582%，减少12.18bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.7020%，减少5.80bp；银质押7天利率1.7456%，减少20.44bp；Shibor7天利率1.7070%，减少5.50bp；银质押14天利率1.7300%，减少17.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.7370%，减少4.40bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1年期LPR为3.10%，持平；5年期LPR为3.6%，持平 [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模4050亿，到期规模10870亿，利率1.5%，期限7天，净回笼6820亿 [2]. 3.9 Industry News - 中国人民银行行长潘功胜出席并主持东盟与中日韩财长和央行行长会，会议通过在清迈倡议多边化下新设以人民币等可自由使用货币出资的快速融资工具相关安排 [2]. - 中国台湾地区货币政策主管部门表示未参与台美经贸工作小组，美国财政部未要求台币升值，不会操纵汇率，密切关注资金进出 [2]. 3.10 Market Conditions - 周二国债现券收益率小幅走弱，国债期货短弱长强，大额逆回购到期，DR007加权利率维持在1.72%附近 [2]. 3.11 Domestic Fundamentals - 政策前置发力提振内需，经济数据表现强劲，社零、固投、工增小幅超预期，失业率环比改善；金融数据小幅超预期，政府债支撑社融，但私人部门融资意愿仍需提振；核心通胀改善，但工业价格数据仍偏弱；抢出口效应推动出口超预期回升，但持续性可能不佳 [2]. 3.12 Overseas Situation - 美国4月PMI小幅回落，非农增长、CPI、PPI、社零数据均不及预期，美国各部门对关税态度分歧剧烈，关税或虎头蛇尾 [2]. 3.13 Key Events to Watch - 5月8日02：00美国至5月7日美联储利率决定（上限）；5月8日19：00英国至5月8日央行利率决定；5月8日20：30美国至5月3日当周初请失业金人数（万人） [3]

2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约跌0.01%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.01%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约涨0.05%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约涨0.12%。 国债期货早盘收盘 ...

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 制造业 PMI 走弱，降息预期升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周三国债期货继续窄幅震荡整理。上周三统计局公布了 4 月制造业 PMI 数据为 49.0%， 比上月下降 1.5 个百分点，回落至收缩区间。这 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic fundamentals show a marginal recovery trend, but the foundation needs to be consolidated, and policy expectations are to be further strengthened. Overseas, there are signs of economic slowdown in the US, and the Fed's policy still leans towards combating inflation. The bond market is likely to return to the fundamental - driven logic, with the interest rate center having room to decline. It is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before seizing long - end band opportunities [97]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures' main contracts (TL2503, T2503, TF2503, TS2503) rose by 0.90%, 0.21%, 0.16%, and 0.08% respectively. The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased. The positions of TS and TL main contracts decreased, while those of TF and T main contracts increased [9][19][25]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Market Review**: This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed overall upward trends, with different increases for different maturities [13][19]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: On April 28, six departments including the Ministry of Commerce optimized the tax - refund policy for outbound travelers. The Politburo meeting proposed to stabilize and activate the capital market. "Second - home to first - home" can enjoy special tax deductions for housing loan interest. On April 29, the National Development and Reform Commission allocated 81 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special Treasury bond funds for consumer goods replacement [31]. - **Overseas News**: The IMF lowered the GDP growth forecast for Asia this year to 3.9%. The US Treasury plans to net borrow $514 billion in the second quarter. The US consumer confidence index in April was at a new low since May 2020 [32]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10Y - 5Y and 10Y - 1Y Treasury yields narrowed. The spreads between the main contracts of 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury futures widened. The inter - period spreads of 10 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year, and 5 - year Treasury futures all narrowed slightly [38][47][53]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 holders in the T main contract increased [64]. - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yield**: Overnight, 1 - week, and 2 - week Shibor rates rose, while the 1 - month Shibor rate declined. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.78%. The yields of Treasury bonds strengthened, with the yields of 1 - 7Y maturities decreasing by 0.5 - 3bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields decreasing by about 3bp and 5bp to 1.62% and 1.86% respectively [68]. - **China - US Treasury Yield Spread**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year China - US Treasury yields both narrowed slightly [73]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 1.1503 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, with 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 735.8 billion yuan. The capital shortage situation improved [77]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, the total bond issuance was 593.747 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 669.751 billion yuan, with a net repayment of 76.004 billion yuan [81]. - **Market Sentiment** - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.2014, with a cumulative increase of 52 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB weakened [84]. - **US Treasury Yield and VIX Index**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield and the VIX index both declined slightly this week [89]. - **A - share Risk Premium**: The 10 - year Treasury yield rose slightly, and the A - share risk premium declined slightly this week [94]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Fundamentals and Policy**: The domestic economy is in a marginal recovery, but the foundation needs to be consolidated. Overseas, the US economy shows signs of slowdown. The bond market is expected to return to the fundamental - driven logic, and the interest rate center may decline. Attention should be paid to the coordinated effect of the potential Fed rate - cut in June and the domestic RRR - cut window [97]. - **Investment Strategy**: Given the current differentiation between short - and long - term Treasury bond futures, it is recommended to wait for the short - end to stabilize before seizing long - end band opportunities. If the short - end does not stabilize, beware of the risk of long - end decline due to the correction of term spreads [97].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 国债期货早报- 2025年4月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 杜淑芳 从业资格证号：F0230469 投资咨询证号：Z0000690 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或 阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 1、基本面：国债期货收盘集体上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.69%，银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷下行。央行在公开市场连续净投放，银行间市场资金面总体 平稳。存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率一降一升，前者下行超5个bp，后者因跨月原因上行超3个bp。五一长假将至，在央行的呵护下，资金面无忧， 市场也在等待降息降准等政策落地。 2、资金面：4月29日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3405亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量3405亿元，中标量3405亿元。 Wind数据显示，当日2205亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放1200亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差为-0.1450，现券 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view for TL2506 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", with an overall view of "range oscillation" due to the weakened short - term expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillating weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range oscillation". Although currently in a high - level consolidation, future macro - policies will be concentrated, giving treasury bond futures upward momentum. In the short term, they will mainly oscillate and consolidate [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillating weakly" respectively, with a "range oscillation" view. The core logic is the weakened short - term expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures rebounded comprehensively, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures rising 0.69%. The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds benefits the 30 - year treasury bond futures. Currently, domestic macro data is good, and the overseas Fed's reserve - reduction cycle has not arrived, so the central bank will remain stable in the short term. After the April Politburo meeting, the time for monetary policy interest rate and reserve - ratio cuts is approaching, and treasury bond futures have upward momentum in the future while mainly oscillating in the short term [4].