【盘面分析】 创业板： 【大盘预判】 上证指数周一出现高开红盘震荡的走势，始终没有气势磅礴的突破行情，所以个股也是走得犹犹豫豫。当前宏观背景仍偏支持新兴成长板块，包括宏观经济 有待继续修复、产业技术迭代较快、产业政策注重创新、并购重组和IPO相关政策继续对科创企业予以鼓励等，与此同时大市值新兴成长企业占比增加，对 大小盘的影响相比以往更均衡。接下来注意上证指数能否在3900点之上稳住。 近期A股市场开始跟随外盘进行反弹，然而每次高开后并未高走，反而出现高开低走的局面，这说明机构资金和量化资金在借机减仓，这也就表明"开盘追 高、收盘吃面"的情况会频繁出现。现阶段美联储是否会在12月降息已经不是重点，外盘经济复苏是非常明显的，欧美股市有望继续反弹再创新高，只不过 这个月同样面临着圣诞节休市的问题。骑牛看熊认为当下行情机会看似很多，实则赚钱效应并不好，这里还是应该先考虑处理手中的持仓标的，再来进行布 局，盲目上仓位"赌未来"是不可取的！ 骑牛看熊发现当前市场对12月份美联储降息仍有分歧，但会议前期留给美联储平衡降息与否的时间已经较短，会议前期市场博弈或加剧，但根据目前CME Fed Watch 概率模型可以看出市场 ...

（编辑：张漫游 审核：朱紫云 校对：颜京宁） 在这两大框架下，姚洋提出两方面建议：一是激发国内需求潜力。在房地产、基建和财政稳健的前提 下，合理释放消费和投资，有助于支持经济持续增长。二是完善金融对创新的支持。在以银行为主的金 融体系下，探索将资金安全高效地流向市场化PE、VC，推动原创技术和0—1创新。 《2025年中国宏观经济形势分析与预测年度报告》指出，我国宏观经济基础仍然坚韧，即家庭"有需 求"，企业"有动力"，政府"有空间"。在"十五五"新阶段启航之际，中国经济可以通过体制机制创新和 结构优化，重塑增长动力，实现从债务驱动向创新驱动的根本转变。该报告建议，在政策方面，短期来 看，应当采取稳健而灵活的政策组合，促进房地产市场止跌企稳，稳定家庭资产预期与消费信心。从中 长期视角来看，唯有依靠创新方能跨越经济周期，达成经济的再平衡与再增长。 中经记者 郝亚娟 夏欣 上海、北京报道 11月29日，2025年度中国宏观经济论坛在上海财经大学举行。在论坛上，上海财经大学滴水湖高级金融 学院院长姚洋作题为《从"十五五"规划看中国经济》的主旨演讲。 姚洋指出，"十五五"规划的重点任务清晰明确：一是做强制造业实体经济 ...

今日（12月1日）早盘，港股市场高开反弹。 热点板块方面，港股有色金属板块全线走强。其中，中国白银集团涨超12%，江西铜业股份涨超8%， 中国有色矿业、五矿资源、洛阳钼业涨超6%；黄金股集体走高，紫金矿业、中国黄金国际等涨超5%。 消息面，江西铜业公告称，公司拟收购境外上市公司索尔黄金。公告显示，公司向伦敦证券交易所上市 公司索尔黄金董事会提交了两项非约束性现金要约。最新一项非约束性现金要约拟以每股26便士（约合 人民币2.43元）的价格，收购目标公司全部股份。索尔黄金是一家矿产勘探及开发公司，总部位于澳大 利亚珀斯，核心资产为位于厄瓜多尔的Cascabel项目100%股权，此外，索尔黄金还在厄瓜多尔等地拥有 数十个不同阶段的勘探项目。 其他方面，盘面上，科网股涨多跌少，腾讯、网易涨超1%，阿里巴巴涨超2%，美团一度跌超2%；创新 药概念活跃，华昊中天医药涨超13%。 截至发稿，恒生指数报25945.87点，上涨86.98点，涨幅0.34%。 | 分时 5日 = 5分 15分 30分 60分 图形 周K 用K 年K + | ■製作 · 第 · 第 / : 恒生指數 (HSI) | | | | | | --- ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,831 points, down 145 points or 0.61% [1] - The market turnover decreased to 82.799 billion HKD, with net inflows of 484 million HKD recorded in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1][5] - The US stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.61%, S&P 500 up 0.54%, and Nasdaq up 0.65% [2] Sector Performance - In Hong Kong, local real estate, software, and 5G concept sectors faced significant declines, while gold stocks performed well [1][5] - The US market saw a strong performance in gold stocks, with Pan American Silver rising over 7% and other gold companies also showing gains [2] Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the importance of technology self-reliance as a core theme for future performance in the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting that leading companies in this sector may see long-term growth opportunities [3] - Recommended sectors for investment include artificial intelligence, semiconductors, industrial software, and state-owned enterprises with low valuations and high dividends [3] - The report highlights the potential of upstream non-ferrous metals benefiting from expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Company Highlights - ZTE Corporation, recommended four times this year, recorded an 11% weekly increase, validating the report's bullish stance on certain technology stocks [3] - Alibaba Group's co-founder expressed views on the AI competition, suggesting that the true winners will be those who effectively utilize AI technologies rather than just having the best models [8] Stock Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like China Software International (0354.HK), which has a strong position in IT services and is involved in Huawei's HarmonyOS development, indicating a promising future with expected revenue growth [9] - The report anticipates that the company will achieve a net profit of 680 million RMB in 2025, suggesting it is undervalued with a PE ratio of around 19 times [9]

Group 1: Core Economic Competition - The ongoing economic tug-of-war between China and the U.S. is fundamentally about global dominance, particularly in trade, technology, and finance [1] - The U.S. aims to reduce reliance on China by relocating supply chains, which is framed as "de-risking," but is essentially about maintaining control over global industry [3] - Despite pressures, both countries are unlikely to fully decouple; trade volumes are expected to continue rising in 2024, indicating interdependence [3] Group 2: Technological Rivalry - The U.S. has intensified efforts to restrict China's high-tech industries, particularly in semiconductors and AI, through various legislative measures [5] - China is significantly increasing its R&D spending, projected to reach 3.61 trillion yuan in 2024, with a focus on overcoming key technological challenges [5][8] - Both nations recognize that technology is a critical battleground for future dominance, making it unlikely for either side to concede easily [5] Group 3: Financial Dynamics - The U.S. is using interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions to maintain the dollar's dominance and attract global capital, while also exerting financial pressure on other nations [5] - China is gradually promoting the internationalization of the yuan and maintaining a stable monetary policy to mitigate financial risks and external shocks [5] - Both countries are strategically maneuvering to increase their shares in the global financial system, as finance is essential for modern economies [5] Group 4: Evolving Trade Relations - The previous economic relationship, once a stabilizing force, has transformed into a battleground with increasing friction, yet both countries remain interdependent [7] - The U.S. attempts to use tariffs and supply chain shifts to pressure China, but alternatives like Vietnam and India lack the capacity to fully replace China [7] - China is focusing on internal improvements, such as expanding domestic demand and reforming income distribution to drive economic growth [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The competition between the two nations is expected to be a long-term struggle, with both sides seeking a balance rather than a definitive victory [9][11] - Ongoing dialogues and negotiations indicate a pragmatic approach, as neither side wants to push the other to a breaking point [11] - The competition reflects structural tensions between a dominant power and an emerging one, with internal governance and strategic stability being crucial for long-term success [11]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 suggests a positive start for China's economy, with a focus on technological self-reliance and new productivity cultivation, supported by resilient external demand and domestic fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [3][5][6]. Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 4.8%, with expectations of a strong start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. - Industrial growth is expected to remain stable, with a focus on high-tech industries and a supportive policy environment [7][8]. - The service sector is anticipated to benefit from improved industrial production and consumer spending recovery [8]. Consumption - The nominal growth rate of retail sales is expected to be 4.1% in 2026, driven by policies promoting consumption upgrades and the gradual lifting of restrictive measures [10][12]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy is likely to continue, focusing on sectors such as elderly care and health [12][13]. - The easing of restrictions in the automotive and housing sectors is expected to support consumer demand [13][15]. Investment - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 2.5% for 2026, with manufacturing and broad infrastructure investments expected to drive growth [17][18]. - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to grow by 6.5%, supported by large-scale equipment updates and favorable export conditions [18][19]. - Broad infrastructure investment is also expected to grow by 6.5%, driven by new policy financial tools and local government initiatives [21][22]. Trade and Exports - Export growth is projected at 4.7% for 2026, supported by global fiscal expansion and China's efforts to penetrate non-US markets [29][30]. - The trade surplus is expected to maintain a high level, with a growth rate of 13.1% [29][30]. - China's exports to non-US markets are likely to continue to grow, aided by investments and trade cycles [33][34].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on December 1, with the Hang Seng Index reporting 25,945.87 points, an increase of 86.98 points, or 0.34% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index also opened higher, reporting 5,617.67 points, with a gain of 0.33% [4] Company News - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced an adjustment to the Hong Kong Stock Connect securities list effective December 1, 2025, due to the end of the price stabilization period for Sirus (HK09927) and its A-share listing being active for 10 trading days [3] - Sirus opened over 4% higher today, reaching 120.90 HKD, with a gain of 5.13% [3] Sector Performance - The Hong Kong metals sector showed strong performance, with China Silver Group rising over 12%, Jiangxi Copper gaining over 8%, and other companies like China Nonferrous Mining and Minmetals Resources increasing over 6% [6] - Gold stocks also saw collective gains, with Zijin Mining and China Gold International rising over 5% [6] Strategic Insights - Huatai Securities indicated that the market is nearing a "bad news fully priced in" state, suggesting limited downside potential. They recommend focusing on sectors with improving fundamentals, particularly consumer goods and stable earnings in the pharmaceutical and internet sectors post-Q3 reports [9] - CITIC Securities believes that any short-term market declines could present better buying opportunities, advising a strategy focused on positioning for the year-end market [9] - Industrial and technological advancements are expected to remain priorities in China's high-quality transformation, with a focus on AI and domestic computing power industries benefiting from the "self-reliance in technology" narrative [10]

中港股市短期展望 恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口：聯儲局 10 月再次鷹派減息，2026 年 減息空間少於預期。官員意見分歧，減息路徑未明。中美元首 10 月會面 取得成果，美方取消 10%芬太尼關稅，暫停一年 24%對等關稅。兩國緊 張局勢暫時緩和，核心矛盾延後解決。內地第三季經濟進一步降溫，十五 五規劃提出擴大內需及促進科技自立自強，方向符合預期。但短期政策加 碼訊號欠奉，港股企業盈利難有明顯改善。加上近期美國科技股趨向波動， AI 產業鏈估值惹關注，而港股年內至今累積升幅較大，年底獲利誘因較 大。恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口。 每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 OPEC+確定2026年第一季暫停增產； 短期看好板塊 企業消息 ➢ 美團(3690)第三季經調整轉蝕160億人民幣遜預期，料末季續虧損； 百度集團(9888)傳開始大規模裁員； 中國燃氣(0384)中期盈利跌24%，收入跌2%； 宏觀焦點 中證監就推出商業不動產投資信託基金試點草案公開徵求意見，明 確商業不動產REITs監管職責； 標普降萬科企業(2202)評級 ...

央广网北京12月1日消息（记者贾铁生 李新峰）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》 报道，党的二十届四中全会提出，"加快高水平科技自立自强，引领发展新质生产力"。辽宁大连推动船 舶工业提质升级，打造世界一流造船基地。系列报道《四中全会精神在基层》本期推出《扬帆向深 蓝》。 眼下，由中国船舶大连造船建造的全球首艘甲醇双燃料动力智能VLCC（超大型原油船）刚刚完成 航海试验。中国船舶大连造船生产管理部部长姜宏亮介绍，企业正在拓展高端船型，建造周期将大幅缩 短。 大连市工业和信息化局副局长段洪涛：在下一个五年，结合我们制造业水平的提升和新质生产力的 发展，把大连这个作为北方重要的船舶制造基地，打造成世界一流的船舶建造基地，包括研发和配套的 基地。 大连船舶制造业的"逆袭"之路，离不开强有力的政策支撑。大连市精准施策，出台18条配套措施， 全力支持船舶与海工产业高质量发展，以"真金白银"激励企业进行技术改造与创新，打造品质高端、信 誉过硬、市场公认、在全球有领先水平的"大连造"船舶精品。 姜宏亮：前几年，我们首次交付双燃料的VLCC，周期是300天左右，这艘船我们在200天以内交 付。 从传统造船到建造绿色智 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus on technological self-reliance and the development of new productive forces will be key to high-quality transformation in the context of major power competition, with policies expected to prioritize industry and technology in the upcoming year-end adjustments [1] Group 1: Technology Sector - The narrative shift within AI and the benefits of "high-cut low" strategies in AI edge and software applications (including media, computing, humanoid robots, and Hong Kong internet) are highlighted as significant areas of focus [1] - The domestic computing power industry chain is expected to benefit from the emphasis on "technological self-reliance" [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to catalyze technological growth, which will be a decisive factor in the current market rally [1] - The upward trend in industry dynamics is expected to continue into next year, with a focus on innovative pharmaceuticals and military industries showing improved cost-effectiveness after adjustments [1]