Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights that while USD stablecoins can enhance the functionality and usage scenarios of the dollar, thereby reinforcing its position in the international monetary system, they do not fundamentally resolve the underlying issues of the U.S. dollar's twin deficits and may exacerbate risks in the long term [1] Group 1: Nature of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are essentially "on-chain" dollars, with issuers earning a "spread" [2] - They are designed to address volatility in the cryptocurrency market and improve payment efficiency, but their reliance on fiat and crypto assets for collateral reflects a centralized characteristic [2] - The market is highly concentrated, with USDT and USDC accounting for approximately 90% of stablecoin trading volume and about 80% of market capitalization [2] Group 2: Regulatory Framework - The regulatory frameworks for stablecoins in the U.S., EU, and Hong Kong share a common structure but differ in specifics [3] - The U.S. GENIUS Act focuses on payment-type stablecoins, requiring 100% cash or short-term U.S. Treasury bonds as reserves [3] - The EU's MiCA Act aims for broader regulation of crypto assets, emphasizing risk prevention and financial market stability [3] - Hong Kong's stablecoin regulations are characterized by strict approval processes and high reserve coverage, balancing financial innovation with stability [3] Group 3: Macro Impact - Stablecoins enhance liquidity similar to fiat currencies, increasing the speed of money circulation but posing new challenges for central banks in liquidity management [4] - Potential effects include the creation of additional liquidity through lower reserve ratios and the emergence of a "shadow" banking system led by stablecoins [4]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices have fallen for the fourth consecutive day, with Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D price closing at 767.75 yuan/gram, down 0.25% from the previous day, marking a three-week low [1] - Internationally, London spot gold prices dropped to a low of $3,310 per ounce on July 28, the lowest since July 17, with a volatile trading day on July 29 [1] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to the strong dollar, a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and sluggish domestic consumption [1][7] Group 2 - In contrast to falling gold prices, retail prices at brand gold stores remain high, with Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang maintaining prices around 998 yuan/gram, while some stores like Lao Feng Xiang price gold at 1,000 yuan/gram [3] - The price differences among various brands are significant, with some stores offering lower prices, such as Cai Bai and China Gold at 982 yuan/gram and 981 yuan/gram respectively, creating a disparity that frustrates consumers [3] - Platinum jewelry prices also show large discrepancies, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum priced at 569 yuan/gram compared to Lao Feng Xiang's 470 yuan/gram, highlighting the high costs consumers face [3] Group 3 - The gold buyback price has plummeted, with 99.9% gold buyback price dropping to 756 yuan/gram, and 22K gold at 669 yuan/gram, leading to a 30% increase in customers selling gold [5] - Some merchants exploit information asymmetry, attracting customers with high buyback prices but later reducing the amount paid due to claims of insufficient purity or wear [5] - Chow Tai Fook's buyback price is 758 yuan/gram, which is 240 yuan lower than their selling price, further exacerbating consumer losses [5] Group 4 - The root cause of the gold price drop is the strong rise in the dollar index, which surged 1% to 98.69 on July 28, the highest since May [7] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has weakened, with the probability dropping from 80% to 60%, leading to a significant increase in the opportunity cost of holding gold [7] - Gold jewelry sales in the first half of the year were only 199.83 tons, a year-on-year decline of 26%, indicating a bleak business environment for gold retailers [7]

《天才法案》来了，稳定币火了。 美国总统特朗普7月18日签署名为《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》的稳定币监管法案，因其英 文首字母缩写刚好是GENIUS(天才)一词，也被称为《天才法案》。 这是美国在联邦层面的首个稳定币监管立法，将为支付型稳定币的发行、支持资产储备和监管执法等提 供监管框架。 稳定币是有锚定物或抵押品的加密资产，美元稳定币锚定美元，1稳定币相当于1美元。稳定币币值波动 相对稳定，且交易无需经过银行或第三方平台，能够提升交易效率，深受市场特别是跨境交易的青睐。 美国推出这一法案，绝非简单的市场规范行为，其背后的战略算计，水很深。 《天才法案》明确要求，稳定币必须以美元或美国短期国债等流动资产作为支撑。 这一规定看似是为了保障稳定币的价值稳定，实则暗藏经济逻辑玄机。美国财政部长贝森特直言，以美 国国债为支撑的稳定币生态系统，将推动私人部门对美国国债的需求，而这种需求的增加，有望降低政 府借贷成本，并帮助控制国家债务规模。 按照特朗普政府设想，由于稳定币背后有真实资产作抵押，用户会产生等值兑换的稳定预期，从而愿意 购买和使用；稳定币发行商则可以将用户投入的资金用于购买美债；而对美国政府来说，稳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shift in the U.S. dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency, suggesting that it may be seeking new "anchors" beyond gold and oil due to changing global economic dynamics [1][3][10]. Group 1: Dollar's Current Status - The U.S. dollar has maintained its status as the world's primary reserve currency for decades, but recent global economic changes raise questions about its future [1][3]. - The dollar's historical ties to gold and oil are weakening, as the global economy becomes more multipolar and countries explore "de-dollarization" [3][4]. Group 2: Global Economic Changes - The U.S. faces unprecedented challenges to its dollar hegemony, with countries like China and Russia actively pursuing alternatives to the dollar in international trade [4][6]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with many nations seeking to conduct trade in their own currencies, reducing reliance on the dollar [6][9]. Group 3: Future of the Dollar - The U.S. may be looking to link the dollar to strategic resources, technological innovations, and emerging financial assets to maintain its influence in the global market [7][10]. - The potential transition to new anchors for the dollar could lead to increased market instability and challenges in balancing domestic and international economic interests [9][10].

Group 1 - China's significant reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings to $756.3 billion marks a new low since 2009, down from $1.06 trillion in early 2022, indicating a 30% decrease and reflecting a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy [1] - The Chinese government is actively seeking alternative investments, with gold reserves reaching 2,298 tons, accounting for 7% of foreign exchange reserves, as a strategy to prepare for potential dollar depreciation [1] - The U.S. is facing a strategic dilemma, as Secretary of State Rubio's call for mutual respect appears to be a response to fiscal constraints while maintaining a hardline stance against China [3] Group 2 - The absurdity of the U.S. Treasury's "donate to pay off national debt" link highlights the irony of a system where public donations of $67.3 million over 30 years are insufficient to cover a single day's interest on national debt [5] - The shift in global economic order is underscored by the increasing use of local currencies among BRICS nations and Saudi Arabia's acceptance of yuan for oil, challenging the dominance of the dollar [5] - The annualized return of Chinese gold ETFs at 12% contrasts sharply with the -3% performance of U.S. Treasury funds, suggesting a trend where investors are moving towards gold and stable assets [7]

Group 1 - The global financial system is undergoing profound changes, with the rise of digital currencies reshaping the international monetary landscape [1] - Digital currencies are no longer just a technological innovation but are becoming a core driving force in reconstructing the international monetary system [1] Group 2 - The emergence of digital currencies is altering the operational logic of traditional monetary systems, providing global investors with new options to hedge against currency risks [3] - The market capitalization of global stablecoins has exceeded $250 billion, with the majority pegged to the US dollar, and major stablecoins like USDT and USDC accounting for over 80% of the market [3] - The development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) represents a proactive response from sovereign nations in the digital currency space, with China's digital yuan showing significant potential for cross-border payments [3] Group 3 - The dominance of the US dollar in the international monetary system is facing multiple pressures, including a federal debt exceeding $36 trillion, which is over 123% of GDP [4] - The US is attempting to extend dollar hegemony through stablecoin legislation, aiming to create a regulatory framework that attracts institutional participation in the global digital currency market [4] - However, the reliance on stablecoins poses systemic risks, as large-scale redemptions could lead to forced sales of US Treasuries, impacting the bond market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing tensions surrounding the U.S. economy, particularly focusing on inflation, interest rates, and the implications of political interference in the Federal Reserve's independence, which threaten the dominance of the U.S. dollar [1][10]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year in June, significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [3]. - The June CPI data showed a 2.7% year-on-year increase, marking a four-month high, with notable price increases in clothing, furniture, and household appliances [3]. - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.01%, indicating rising borrowing costs [1][8]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with 19 decision-makers split into three camps regarding interest rate policies: those advocating for no cuts, those supporting two cuts, and those calling for an immediate cut [8]. - Dallas Fed President Logan warned of stagflation risks and insisted on maintaining high interest rates for at least 6 to 12 months [3]. Political Influence - President Trump publicly demanded a 300 basis point rate cut and hinted at the possibility of dismissing Fed Chair Powell, which led to significant market volatility [5]. - Trump's comments resulted in a surge in gold prices and a drop in the dollar index, reflecting market reactions to potential political interference in monetary policy [5]. Trade and Tariff Impacts - The U.S. government's imposition of a 30% tariff on Mexico has escalated tensions, prompting strong responses from the Mexican government and potential retaliatory measures from the EU [7]. - A survey indicated that 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass tariff costs onto consumers, highlighting the broader economic impact of trade policies [3]. Debt and Currency Concerns - The U.S. national debt has reached $37 trillion, with interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025, consuming 25% of federal tax revenue [8]. - There is a growing trend of global central banks selling U.S. Treasuries, with predictions that the national debt could exceed $43 trillion by 2028 [8]. - Countries are increasingly exploring alternatives to the dollar, with Brazil's president suggesting trade without using the dollar and the EU accelerating efforts to establish a "de-dollarization" trade network [8].

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for significant global upheaval, suggesting that a major restructuring of international power dynamics is imminent, particularly between the US and China [1][3] - It highlights the decline of the US dollar's dominance in international finance, with its usage dropping from 59.3% in 2021 to 56.2% in 2022, while the Chinese yuan and other currencies are gaining traction [3] - The article points out that the US is facing multiple domestic challenges, including a GDP growth rate of only 1.8% last year and declining consumer confidence [3][5] Group 2 - The military capabilities of the US are reportedly diminishing, with a reduction in global troop deployment and a military budget growth rate lagging behind the depreciation of its combat power [5] - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has destabilized Europe, leading to a decline in Germany's industrial output and a GDP growth rate that fell to 0.4% in 2019, indicating economic stagnation [5][7] - China's advancements in technology, particularly in the semiconductor industry, are notable, with a reported industry output of over 800 billion yuan in 2022, reflecting a 12% year-on-year growth [7][8] Group 3 - The article raises concerns about the potential for conflict as nations prepare for possible upheaval, suggesting that the current global situation is precarious and could lead to significant changes [8][10] - It emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the future leadership of global powers and the potential for ordinary citizens to face increasing difficulties as geopolitical tensions rise [8][10]

Core Points - The U.S. has enacted the first federal legislation on stablecoins, known as the "Genius Act," which establishes a regulatory framework for the issuance, asset backing, and enforcement of payment stablecoins, attracting global market attention [1] - The market for fiat-backed stablecoins has seen explosive growth, with total market capitalization increasing from $527 million in early 2019 to $23.1667 billion by Q1 2025, a nearly 440-fold increase [2] - The U.S. aims to solidify the dominance of the dollar through stablecoins, positioning them as a bridge between traditional finance and the digital world, potentially creating a "new Bretton Woods system" [3] Market Dynamics - The dollar stablecoin dominates the market, accounting for 99.75% of the total market cap, while euro stablecoins represent only 0.20% [2] - Stablecoins are increasingly penetrating the real economy, particularly in cross-border payments and as a hedge against inflation in countries with high inflation rates, such as Argentina [2] Regulatory Environment - The "Genius Act" mandates that the reserves backing dollar stablecoins must be invested in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities, which is expected to increase demand for U.S. debt by $2 trillion in the coming years [3] - Despite the establishment of a regulatory framework, there are concerns regarding the adequacy of compliance measures, particularly in areas like anti-money laundering and customer due diligence [4] Stability Concerns - The stability of fiat-backed stablecoins is contingent on their reserve mechanisms, with current estimates placing the market size of fiat-backed stablecoins at approximately $25.08 billion [4] - Historical incidents, such as the trust crisis faced by USDT and the liquidity issues of USDC due to its exposure to Silicon Valley Bank, highlight the vulnerabilities in the stablecoin market [5] Future Outlook - The evolution of stablecoins will depend on their ability to integrate with the next generation of financial infrastructure and the regulatory landscape surrounding crypto assets [6] - The ongoing development of regulations and standards for crypto exchanges, public chains, and token issuance will be critical for the future viability of stablecoins in the digital economy [6]

Group 1 - The capital migration from the US to Israel's technology sector and Southeast Asian renewable energy industries indicates a significant shift in investment strategies, with foreign capital selling off US Treasury bonds at an unprecedented rate of $120 billion in a single month [1] - The US Treasury data reveals that foreign investors sold off US debt at an unprecedented pace, with a total of over $1 trillion in bond sales this year, highlighting a growing trend of capital flight from the US [3] - The decline of the US dollar's global reserve share, which has fallen below 58%, is attributed to countries like Saudi Arabia and others opting for local currency settlements in trade, signaling a potential end to dollar dominance [1][3] Group 2 - The US manufacturing sector's contribution to GDP has dwindled to just 11%, with debt interest consuming 22% of federal tax revenue, raising concerns about the sustainability of the US economy [3] - Countries are increasingly seeking alternatives to the US dollar for trade, with India purchasing Russian oil in rupees and ASEAN countries settling transactions in their local currencies, reflecting a collective effort to reduce dependence on the dollar [3] - The historical parallels drawn between the current state of the US dollar and the decline of the British pound during World War I suggest a potential long-term shift in global economic power [5] Group 3 - Israel has seen a 320% increase in Jewish venture capital investments over the past year, indicating a strategic shift towards technology and innovation, despite its small geographic size and limited industrial base [6] - The focus of Jewish capital on China is driven by the country's robust industrial capabilities in sectors like rare earths, lithium batteries, and semiconductors, which are seen as more viable investment opportunities compared to the US [8] - Brazil is emerging as a new investment hub, with significant increases in rare earth imports from China and strategic partnerships forming between Jewish capital and Chinese sovereign funds, indicating a shift in global capital flows [10]