Group 1 - The international gold price increased due to the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, as investors digested last month's consumer price increase data and awaited further clarity on President Trump's trade policies [1] - The US dollar index fell from a one-month high, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, while rising US inflation strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain current interest rates for a longer period [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped from nearly 60% before the data release to about 52% [1] Group 2 - The gold market showed signs of weakness, with the first resistance level at 3343-45, but the lowest point reached was only 3333, indicating limited downward momentum [3] - The current trend remains unchanged, with a short bearish outlook retained, but upcoming data releases may lead to fluctuations in gold prices [3] - The hourly moving averages have flattened, indicating a stalemate in short-term bullish and bearish trends, with key resistance levels at 3343 and 3355 [3][5]

Overview - The U.S. June core CPI data was slightly weaker than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% against a market expectation of 2.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% compared to an expected 0.3%[2] - The overall CPI for June rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.6%, and increased by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations[2] Inflation Drivers - The main contributors to the CPI rebound were rising oil prices, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services[22] - The energy CPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month in June, recovering from a previous decline of -1.0%, reflecting global oil price increases[22] Core Goods and Services - Core goods CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month in June, indicating a warming in core goods inflation, with clothing, toys, and audio-visual equipment showing upward trends[24] - However, the used car CPI fell by -0.7% month-on-month, although future trends may indicate a rebound according to the Manheim used car index[24] Future Outlook - The second half of the year may see further inflationary pressures, particularly in the third quarter, which is expected to be a critical verification period for tariff-induced inflation effects[35] - The combination of rising tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from U.S. companies suggests that inflation may enter an upward trajectory[35] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two rate cuts anticipated within the year, despite potential inflationary pressures in the third quarter[39] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with private sector employment slowing down, which may influence the Fed's decision-making[39] Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, unexpected economic slowdowns in the U.S., and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance if inflation proves more resilient than anticipated[41]

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident. The CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI was 2.9%, matching expectations. The month-on-month core CPI was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3][38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating market expectations of stronger future inflation [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound in June were crude oil, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services. The energy CPI rose by 0.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of 1.0%, reflecting the increase in global oil prices [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with the core goods CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the gradual impact of tariffs. However, the CPI for new and used cars remained weak, with used car prices dropping by 0.7% [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, down from 0.3% in May. However, core non-rent service inflation rebounded, with medical, transportation, and entertainment services showing month-on-month increases [39][40] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on US inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects. The combination of increased tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from US companies may lead to a rise in inflation [5][28] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite the potential for rising inflation in the third quarter [34][40]

Overview - The core CPI data for June in the US was slightly weaker than expected, but the inflation effects of tariffs are becoming more evident. The June CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%, while the core CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, matching expectations. The month-on-month core CPI was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [3][38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, indicating market expectations of stronger future inflation [11][38] Structure - The main drivers of the CPI rebound in June were crude oil, core goods (excluding new and used cars), and non-rent services. The energy CPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, compared to a previous decline of 1.0%, reflecting rising global oil prices [4][39] - Core goods inflation showed signs of warming, with the core goods CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating the gradual impact of tariffs. However, the CPI for new and used cars remained weak, with used car prices dropping by 0.7% month-on-month [20][39] - Rent inflation slightly slowed, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in June, down from 0.3% in May. Core non-rent service inflation rebounded, with medical, transportation, and entertainment services showing month-on-month increases [39][40] Outlook - The second half of the year may see continued upward pressure on US inflation, with the third quarter being a critical verification period for tariff inflation effects. The combination of increased tariff revenues and strong cost-pass-through willingness from US companies suggests inflation may enter an upward range [5][28] - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, with two cuts anticipated within the year, despite the potential for rising inflation in the third quarter. The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may influence the Fed's decisions [34][40]

1、美国物价透露关税压力，海外市场保持谨慎 1、美国物价透露关税压力，海外市场保持谨慎 2、局部动力仍在，三条逻辑线仍然指向科技 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 今天的市场，上午表现非常漂亮，但下午出现明显回调，已经连续数日上演"上午冲高、下午回落"的同 一剧情。7月行情是否依旧牢靠？行情究竟走向何方？我们一起梳理今日市场的重要消息。 首先观察到一个细节：今日权重股，尤其是红利板块回调幅度更大。在银行股东陆续传出减持消息之 后，银行板块今日掉头向下；与此同时，科技板块整体表现可圈可点，跑赢大盘。上午领涨全市场，下 午虽有回撤，但最终守住部分收益，以红盘报收，人工智能、芯片等赛道均如此。这透露出当前市场仍 存在赚钱效应，只是需要踩准节奏、选对方向。接下来，我们沿用三条主要逻辑线，看看最新进展。 第一条逻辑线是宏观基本面。今日国内宏观数据寥寥，海外却发布了一项关键数据——美国通胀。该数 据影响全球：若意外高于预期，将对全球形成压制；若意外低于预期， ...

Inflation Overview - In June, the U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May and slightly above the market expectation of 2.6%[8] - The core CPI rose by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with market expectations[8] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.3%, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, slightly below the expected 0.3%[8] Core Goods and Services - The impact of tariffs on core goods is beginning to show, with notable increases in clothing and furniture prices, which rose by 0.9 and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared to May[12] - However, inflation in automobiles and pharmaceuticals showed weakness, with declines of 0.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively, contributing to a 0.2 percentage point drag on CPI[12] - Core services, particularly medical and transportation services, saw a rebound, with airfares increasing by 2.6 percentage points, although still in negative growth territory[14] Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to continue its moderate rise, with tariffs likely to exert further pressure on consumer prices in the coming months[17] - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports was approximately 8.7% in May, reflecting a 6.5 percentage point increase from the end of 2024[17] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate rate cuts anticipated due to ongoing inflationary pressures[18]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 美国通胀温和上涨 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 季家辉 | 021-61761056 | jijiahui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522010002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 7 月 15 日，美国劳工统计局发布 6 月 CPI 通胀数据：环比来看，整体 CPI 上涨 0.3%，核心 CPI 上涨 0.2%，分别较上月回升 0.2 和 0.1 个百分点。同比来看，整体 CPI 上涨 2.7%，核心 CPI 上涨 2.9%， 较上月回升 0.3 和 0.1 个百分点。 通胀走势：核心 CPI 通胀企稳 能源价格大幅反弹。6 月 CPI ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美国 CPI 上升略超预期，核心 CPI 符合预期。那么结构上的走势有何具体变化？ 对美联储降息有何影响？其一，地缘局势升温，使能源环比涨幅上升。其二，汽车、服装环比 一下一上，核心商品通胀压力上升；住房通胀环比增速回落，核心服务通胀压力温和。往前看， 我们认为：短期，美国就业稳健、通胀温和、关税暂缓期延长，美联储决策空间充足，7 月大 概率继续观望；中期，各国贸易谈判的结果仍是重点，关税实质落地规模，及其对美国经济的 影响将是决定后续货币政策的关键。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 2] ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 ...

Inflation Data - The US June CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.4%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, up from 0.1% in the previous month[5] - Core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly above the previous value of 2.8%[2] Market Expectations - Market expectations for June CPI were 2.64% year-on-year and 0.25% month-on-month, which were closely met[5] - Core CPI expectations were 2.95% year-on-year and 0.23% month-on-month, also aligning with actual results[2] Contributing Factors - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in transportation services, household furniture, and energy prices[5] - Energy prices saw a month-on-month increase of 1.9%, reflecting volatility due to geopolitical factors[5] Economic Indicators - The US manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49%, indicating a halt in the continuous decline observed earlier this year[6] - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, suggesting a stable labor market despite some weakness in service sector employment[6] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence has improved significantly, with the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan dropping by 1.6 percentage points to 5%[2] - The five-year inflation expectation also decreased to 4%, indicating reduced concerns about inflation among consumers[2] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the inflationary impact of tariffs will become more pronounced in the coming months as businesses deplete their inventories[7] - Risks related to tariffs and geopolitical tensions remain high, with potential for renewed price increases if trade conditions worsen[7]

FANCHENGKAl 146@pingan.com.cn 平安观点: 观 报 245 证券 海外宏观 2025年7月 16日 美国 2025年6月 CPI 点评 通胀压力现痕迹 证券分析师 投资咨询资格编号 张 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU15@pingan.com 范城恺 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523010001 宏观点评 美国 6 月核心 CPI 环比略低于预期,但通胀明显抬头。美国 2025年 6 月 E CPI 环比录得 0.3%,同比录得 2.7%,均符合预期;6月核心 CPI 环比录得 0.2%,低于预期的0.3%;同比录得2.9%,符合预期。从环比趋势来看,6 月 CPI 以及核心 CPI 环比均高于 5 月;除了住房租金分项(环比 0.2%) 外,大部分的重点分项环比增速均高于今年 3-5 月的平均水平。其中,能源 分项的走高主因国际油价上涨(6月 WTI 原油月均价格环比大幅上升 11%, 能源 CPI 环比升 0.9% ),而大部分商品和服务价格环比走高,一定程度上体 现了特朗普关税政策的影响。 观点 券研究报 指数在短暂跳水后迅速走高,美股(在CPI公布后一小时开 ...