Group 1 - The China Chemical Enterprises Management Association will host the 2025 National Petroleum and Chemical Enterprises Management Innovation Conference on September 25-26 in Beijing [1] - The chemical ETF (159870) has seen a recent increase of 1%, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 0.67 yuan and a net subscription of 420 million units [1] - Open-source Securities believes that "anti-involution" will be a key policy focus for 2025 and beyond, aiming to control new capacity and optimize existing capacity in key industries [1] Group 2 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Chemical Industry Theme Index (000813) account for 43.54% of the index, including Wanhu Chemical, Salt Lake Co., and Juhua Co. [2] - The chemical ETF (159870) has a current scale exceeding 7.4 billion, ranking first among similar products [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline in a volatile manner. The demand for finished steel products is weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weakness of the futures market is becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished product end, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection production restrictions [4]. - The prices of iron ore, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron are affected by supply, demand, and policy sentiment. The short - term prices of iron ore may continue to adjust, and for manganese - silicon and silicon - iron, it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [7][10][11]. - The prices of industrial silicon are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the prices of polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely. The prices of glass are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term. The prices of soda ash are expected to fluctuate in the short term and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [16][17][19][20]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3121 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.35%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3375 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (- 0.79%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Spot Market**: The rebar price in Tianjin was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price in Shanghai was 3300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3410 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shanghai was 3420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar production decreased significantly this week, demand improved slightly but remained weak overall, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, demand continued to recover, production increased rapidly, and inventory increased for six consecutive weeks. The overall steel production is still at a high level, while the demand - side support is insufficient [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 772.50 yuan/ton, up 0.46% (+ 3.50), and the position increased by 11185 lots to 451,600 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.42 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.44% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased in the latest period. The daily average pig iron output was 240,750 tons, basically unchanged from last week. The port inventory continued to rise slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased slightly. The short - term upward increase of pig iron may be limited [7]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Futures Market**: On August 21, the main contract of manganese - silicon (SM601) closed slightly up 0.03% at 5838 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon - iron (SF511) closed up 0.28% at 5638 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of 6517 manganese - silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price of 72 silicon - iron in Tianjin was 5830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - capacity pattern of manganese - silicon has not changed. The production of manganese - silicon has shown an upward trend recently, and the supply - side pressure remains. The demand for silicon - iron and the entire black sector may weaken marginally in the future [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8635 yuan/ton, up 2.92% (+ 245), and the position increased by 2630 lots to 529,075 lots [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 415 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 165 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not fundamentally changed. The production is expected to increase in August, and the demand can provide some support, but the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 51,530 yuan/ton, down 0.67% (- 345), and the position decreased by 1672 lots to 335,483 lots [16]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon was 46 yuan/kg, up 1.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 48 yuan/kg, up 2 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 49 yuan/kg, up 2 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 2530 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamentals**: The production increased week - on - week, and the inventory reduction was limited. The prices are expected to fluctuate widely [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe was 1147 yuan, down 9 yuan from the previous day, and the price in Central China was 1060 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million weight boxes, up 0.28% from the previous week [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass production remains at a high level, the inventory pressure has increased slightly, and the downstream real - estate demand has not improved significantly. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price was 1205 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons, up 0.71% from last Thursday [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The downstream demand has little fluctuation, and the production of soda ash devices fluctuates slightly. The prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [20].

Core Insights - The price of polysilicon futures has shown a significant upward trend, with the main contract rising by 2.65% to 52,230 yuan/ton as of August 21 [1] Market Overview - On August 20, the price of N-type polysilicon feedstock reached 47,000 yuan/ton, while the lowest delivery price dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, resulting in a spot discount of 7,305 yuan/ton [2] - According to the National Energy Administration, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in June was only 14.36 GW, marking a year-on-year decline of 38% and a month-on-month decline of 85% [2] - Despite an expected global photovoltaic installation of approximately 580 GW and domestic demand of about 1.3 million tons by 2025, short-term demand weakness is a key factor limiting the rise in polysilicon prices [2] - As of August 20, the number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 440 to 6,370 [2] Institutional Perspectives - Newhu Futures indicates a downward trend in industry supply, with expectations of production cuts in southern and northern regions, while new capacity is gradually ramping up. The future production scheduling of enterprises remains to be observed [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures notes a recent cooling in market sentiment, with previous high points of 53,000 yuan/ton becoming short-term resistance. The emphasis on resisting sales below cost suggests limited downward price potential [3] - The current market for polysilicon is characterized by a "policy logic exceeding fundamental logic" adjustment phase, indicating that price fluctuations will impact the entire photovoltaic industry chain and investment decisions [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not be able to maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, although the current supply - side pressure is not significant, attention should be paid to the subsequent shipping progress. If the terminal demand continues to weaken, the short - term iron ore price may be slightly adjusted [6]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, in the short - term disordered market environment affected by emotions, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [8]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to run weakly with fluctuations, and for polysilicon, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, glass prices follow macro - emotions, and soda ash prices are affected by supply - side and market sentiment under the "anti - involution" logic [18][19]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3132 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.191%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (- 0.40%) from the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, inventory accumulation speed increased. Hot - rolled coil demand rebounded significantly, and inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are in a marginal upward state, with high production and insufficient demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2601) closed at 769.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.26% (- 2.00), and the position changed to 44.04 million hands [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals increased. The daily average pig iron output increased. Port inventories increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventories increased significantly. The apparent demand for five major steel products continued to weaken [6]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Prices**: On August 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 1.32% at 5836 yuan/ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 0.99% at 5622 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Environment**: Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices of related commodities, including ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, have dropped significantly. It is expected that the price will eventually return to the fundamentals after the sentiment fades [8]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (SI2511) closed at 8390 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.72% (- 235). The weighted contract position changed to 5.26445 million hands [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand remain. The operating rate is expected to rise in August, and the demand side can provide some support, but the price is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (PS2511) closed at 51875 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.74% (- 385). The weighted contract position changed to 3.37155 million hands [15]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly output increased, and the inventory clearance speed was limited. The supply - demand situation is still weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Prices and Inventory**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1156 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China was 1060 yuan, down 30 yuan. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 2.55% [18]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, it follows macro - emotions, and the price may rise if there are substantial real - estate policies [18]. - **Soda Ash** - **Prices and Inventory**: The spot price was 1205 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous day. As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8973 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18% [19]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the price center may gradually rise under the "anti - involution" logic, but the upward space is limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [19].

Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, Tianshan Co. reported operating revenue of 35.98 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4% [1] - The company experienced a net loss of 0.922 billion, which represents a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1] - Cement sales reached 80.62 million tons, down 14.63% year-on-year, while clinker sales were 9.9 million tons, down 14.59% [1] Cost Management - Tianshan Co. implemented significant cost control measures, benefiting from a decrease in coal prices, which led to a substantial reduction in production costs for cement and commercial concrete [1] - The company reported improvements in cement sales prices and gross profit margins year-on-year due to price recovery and cost optimization efforts [1] Industry Context - The national cement market demand continued to shrink in the first half of the year, primarily due to a deep adjustment in the real estate market [2] - The commercial concrete industry saw a total profit decline of 26.4% compared to the previous year, although the decline rate narrowed compared to earlier months [2] - Tianshan Co. acknowledged the complex competitive landscape and the impact of declining water demand on operational performance [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to deepen supply-side structural reforms and promote healthy development within the industry [2] - Tianshan Co. aims to enhance its e-commerce platform "Jucaitong" and develop special cement products to seek new growth opportunities [2] - The company will optimize procurement strategies and strengthen supply chain management to address challenges related to raw material price fluctuations and fixed cost increases [3] Market Outlook - The industry is expected to face continued downward pressure on demand, with profitability largely dependent on supply changes and the execution of supply-side policies [3] - If companies adhere to production capacity regulations, there is potential for a significant reduction in supply and an increase in capacity utilization rates from 53% to around 70% [3]

Economic Growth - In July 2025, China's industrial added value grew by 5.7% year-on-year, slowing down by 1.1 percentage points from June[9] - Fixed asset investment from January to July 2025 increased by 1.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year[10] - Social retail sales in July 2025 rose by 3.7% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[10] Trade and Exports - In July 2025, China's total exports reached $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[38] - Imports totaled $223.54 billion in July 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%[51] - The trade surplus for July 2025 was $98.24 billion[38] Inflation and Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July 2025 showed no growth year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[57] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to the previous month[57] Monetary Policy - New social financing in July 2025 was 1.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 64.8% compared to July 2024[14] - New RMB loans in July 2025 were -50 billion yuan, a drop of 119% year-on-year[14] - M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a stable expansion of monetary supply[15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The capital market is supported by policies, and the overall direction is to go long on dips, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a wide - range shock pattern in the short - term [7]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, policies, and macro - environment, showing different trends and investment opportunities [10][11][12] etc. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - News: Measures will be taken to stabilize the real estate market, A - share market value exceeds 100 trillion yuan, some companies may apply for suspension, and there is a peak in online consultations at securities brokerages [2]. - Futures basis ratio: Different basis ratios are presented for IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods. The market may be volatile in the short - term but the general idea is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: On Monday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined. There are events such as the stock market reaching a 10 - year high, treasury cash management deposit bidding, and international meetings [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may be volatile in the short - term due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - Market: Gold and silver prices show different trends. Geopolitical risks and Fed's policy are important factors affecting prices. It is recommended to wait for Powell's speech and then make decisions [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Copper prices are oscillating due to factors such as the rebound of the US dollar index and increased domestic inventory. The price is expected to consolidate and wait for macro - drivers [10]. Aluminum - Market: Aluminum prices are falling due to the expansion of the US steel - aluminum tax scope and domestic inventory accumulation. The price may be adjusted in the short - term [11]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices face a large downward risk due to factors such as increased domestic social inventory and weak downstream consumption [12]. Lead - Market: Lead prices are expected to be weak due to the weak supply - demand situation in the industry and the increase in social inventory [13]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices are under pressure to correct in the short - term but have support in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on significant dips [15]. Tin - Market: Tin prices are expected to oscillate as supply is tight in the short - term and demand is weak, but the situation may change with the resumption of production in Myanmar [16]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: Lithium prices are likely to rise due to the approaching traditional peak season and improved supply - demand expectations. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [17]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices are falling. It is recommended to short on rallies due to the over - capacity situation [19]. Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless - steel market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term due to factors such as price resistance and weak demand [20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market: Casting aluminum alloy prices face upward resistance due to the off - season and large futures - spot price difference [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: Steel prices are oscillating weakly. The demand for rebar is weak and the inventory is increasing, while the demand for hot - rolled coil is improving but the inventory is still rising. The market may return to the supply - demand logic if the demand cannot be repaired [23][24]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices are slightly adjusted. The supply is increasing and the demand is slightly rising, but the terminal demand is weakening [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. The price may rise if there are real estate policies, otherwise, supply contraction is needed [27][28]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and the price center may rise in the long - term, but the upward space is limited [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities according to their own situations. The supply - demand situation of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may weaken in the future [30][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand [33][34]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely. The increase in warehouse receipts and the uncertainty of capacity integration are new concerns [35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: Rubber prices are oscillating. The market has different views on the rise and fall. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [37][39]. Crude Oil - Market: Crude oil has the potential to rise but the upward space is limited in the short - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [40]. Methanol - Market: Methanol supply pressure is large, and demand is expected to improve in the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. Urea - Market: Urea supply is loose, demand is general, and the price is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [42]. Styrene - Market: Styrene prices may rise with the cost side due to factors such as the repair of BZN spread and the reduction of port inventory [43]. PVC - Market: PVC has a strong supply - weak demand and high - valuation situation. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Ethylene glycol fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the short - term valuation may decline [46]. PTA - Market: PTA is expected to accumulate inventory, and the processing fee space is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX in the peak season [47]. Para - xylene - Market: PX is expected to reduce inventory, and the valuation has support below but limited upward space. It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the peak season [48]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: PE prices may be determined by the game between the cost side and the supply side in the short - term [49]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: PP prices may follow crude oil to oscillate strongly in July under the background of weak supply - demand [51]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Pig prices are stable. The market may oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term and pay attention to the upper pressure in the medium - term [53]. Eggs - Market: Egg prices are mostly stable. The supply is large, and the price may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to short after the rebound in the medium - term [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: Soybean meal prices are affected by factors such as US soybean production and import costs. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range [55][56]. Fats and Oils - Market: Fats and oils prices are oscillating strongly. The price is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy and the low inventory in Southeast Asia, but the upward space is limited [57][58]. Sugar - Market: Sugar prices are expected to decline due to the increase in international and domestic supply [59]. Cotton - Market: Cotton prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to factors such as the USDA report and the suspension of tariffs, but the downstream consumption is general [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As the Politburo meeting concludes and the sentiment related to "anti - involution" cools down, the market sentiment becomes rational, and the futures price trend weakens. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may not maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to the supply - demand logic. It is recommended to continuously monitor the recovery progress of terminal actual demand and the support of the cost side for the finished product price [3]. - In the short term, the iron ore price may be slightly adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the contradiction between high hot metal production and terminal demand will further intensify. Also, follow - up actions of blast furnace enterprises regarding the production suspension of Tangshan independent rolling enterprises need to be monitored [6]. - In the short - term market environment controlled by emotions, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, and it is advisable to wait and see. Hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations but should control margin (cash flow) safety [10]. - It is expected that the industrial silicon price will fluctuate weakly, with support at 8000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely, with support levels at 47000 and 44000 yuan/ton respectively [14][16]. - In the short term, it is expected that glass and soda ash will fluctuate. In the long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macro - sentiment, and soda ash prices are expected to gradually increase in the price center, but their upward space is limited [18][19]. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3188 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 119412 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10357 tons. The main contract position was 1.617947 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 18597 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3439 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.203%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 78386 tons, with no month - on - month change. The main contract position was 1.255562 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 36269 lots [2]. - **Market Situation**: The export volume declined slightly this week, and the overall export remained weak. Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation speed increased. Hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. Currently, both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are on the rise marginally, steel mill profits are good, and production remains high, but the demand side's carrying capacity is obviously insufficient [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 776.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.13% (+ 1.00), and the position changed by - 4631 lots to 447,300 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 895,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 772 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.22 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.39% [5]. - **Market Situation**: The overseas iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume both decreased in the latest period. The daily average hot metal production increased by 0.34 tons to 240.66 tons. Port inventories increased slightly, and the increase in steel mill imported ore inventories was more obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken, and the decline in rebar consumption data was significant [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On August 15, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.40% at 6026 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed up 0.17% at 5754 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Situation**: The market for "anti - involution" trading still disturbs the market, and relevant emotional disturbances will continue to affect the market. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon has not changed, and its production has shown an upward trend recently. It is expected that in the future, the demand for ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, or the entire black sector will likely weaken marginally [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 8805 yuan/ton, up 1.50% (+ 130). The weighted contract position changed by - 3135 lots to 531,988 lots. The main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52740 yuan/ton, up 4.58% (+ 2310). The weighted contract position changed by + 12752 lots to 322,861 lots [13][15]. - **Market Situation**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand of industrial silicon have not fundamentally changed. The production of polysilicon has increased week - on - week, and inventory depletion is limited. The polysilicon market is in a weak supply - demand situation [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1164 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China, it was 1090 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million heavy boxes (+ 2.55%), and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The spot price of soda ash was 1280 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons from Monday, with a growth rate of 0.94% [18][19]. - **Market Situation**: Glass prices have significantly corrected with the cooling of market sentiment, and the current market sentiment has been basically digested. Soda ash prices fluctuate widely with the coal - chemical sector. In the short - term, both are expected to fluctuate [18][19].

Group 1 - The report highlights the focus on key industries such as new energy vehicles, new energy batteries, and photovoltaic industries, with recent regulatory measures from various government departments leading to price increases in some industry segments [1][14][15] - The report outlines three observation points for capacity governance: guidance from the State Council, implementation of target responsibility letters by provincial governments, and the need for financial and tax support during execution [2][22][23] - Historical experiences from the 2016 supply-side structural reform are referenced to inform current strategies for managing overcapacity and promoting orderly competition in key industries [9][11][22] Group 2 - The credit bond market is experiencing fluctuations, with short to medium-term bonds performing better, while the overall sentiment remains weak due to a lack of new funding and policy incentives [3][4] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality, high-liquidity credit bonds, particularly AAA+ rated bonds with yields above 1.85%, and recommends considering longer durations for AAA and AA+ rated bonds [4][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of government policies on local government performance assessments, especially in areas heavily affected by capacity reduction [25][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of environmental production restrictions has cooled, leading to a focus on demand recovery. Despite high production levels, the steel demand has dropped to seasonal lows, and the market is advised to monitor the transition between peak and off-peak seasons for signs of demand recovery [3][4]. - Long-term capacity management remains a key theme, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply, potentially improving profitability for steel companies [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 15, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends, with rebar prices at 3,300 CNY/ton (down 30 CNY), high wire at 3,470 CNY/ton (down 30 CNY), hot-rolled at 3,460 CNY/ton (down 10 CNY), cold-rolled at 3,880 CNY/ton (up 10 CNY), and medium plate at 3,520 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY) [1][10]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.72 million tons, an increase of 24,200 tons week-on-week. However, rebar production decreased by 7,300 tons to 2.2045 million tons. Total social inventory rose by 282,900 tons to 9.8978 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - The report indicates a decline in long product profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by -24 CNY/ton, +3 CNY/ton, and -3 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also decreased by 18 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, while also suggesting attention to high-temperature alloy stocks like Fushun Special Steel [3][4].