Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - July manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.3%, remaining below the expansion threshold for four consecutive months, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Construction PMI decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, still above the threshold, indicating a slowdown in expansion[3] - Service sector PMI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 50%, indicating stagnation[3] Group 2: Price Trends and Profit Margins - Prices of various commodities increased significantly in July, with coking coal up 32.2%, iron ore up 10.4%, glass up 16.0%, and soda ash up 8.6%[9] - The main raw material purchase price index rose above the threshold for the first time since March, reaching 51.5%, potentially supporting PPI in July[9] - The gap between the main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index widened from 2.2% to 3.2%, indicating potential pressure on corporate profits[9] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Trends - New orders, new export orders, and backlogged orders all declined in July, with new orders down 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%[10] - Raw material inventory index and finished goods inventory index fell to 47.7% and 47.4%, respectively, suggesting a slowdown in production replenishment and active destocking by companies[10] - The production index recorded at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, reflecting a marginal slowdown in production activities[10] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Ongoing external trade frictions and internal growth stabilization policies remain key focus areas, with upcoming negotiations on tariff agreements between China and the U.S.[25] - The political bureau meeting emphasized "orderly exit of backward production capacity," which may impact production progress in key industries[28] - Risks include potential unfavorable outcomes from U.S.-China tariff negotiations and slower-than-expected implementation of growth stabilization policies[29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is still uncertain about whether the mica mines in Jiangxi will stop production. If there is a short - term suspension for rectification and then复产 after the mining certificates are compliant, considering the large recent downstream stocking and the supplement from surrounding compliant mines, the impact on the balance sheet is expected to be limited. There may be a further increase in futures prices from a market sentiment perspective, but the upside is limited as the previous increase has already priced in the impact of the suspension [2]. - If the mining certificates are successfully renewed and production does not stop, the supply will remain in a loose pattern. Considering the large downstream stocking, full previous pricing, and small increase in downstream production scheduling, the futures prices may be revised downwards and return to the fundamental logic [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 71,100 yuan, with a daily increase of 150 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,000 yuan, with a daily increase of 150 yuan [1]. Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 70,000 yuan, with a daily increase of 3.24%; for 2509, it is 71,920 yuan, with a 5.3% increase; for 2510, it is 72,200 yuan, with a 5.31% increase; for 2511, it is 72,300 yuan, with a 5.36% increase; for 2512, it is 72,580 yuan, with a 5.34% increase [1]. Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 757 yuan, with a daily increase of 9 yuan. The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1090 yuan, with a daily increase of 25 yuan; for lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%), it is 1750 yuan, with a 60 - yuan increase; for phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%), it is 5550 yuan, with a 275 - yuan increase; for phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%), it is 6500 yuan, with a 300 - yuan increase [1][2]. Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,570 yuan, with a 35 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,260 yuan, with a 30 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,945 yuan, with a 50 - yuan increase; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,535 yuan, with a 20 - yuan increase [2]. Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2100 yuan, with a change of 0.2 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1200 yuan, with a change of - 2530 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 280 yuan, with a change of - 80 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 380 yuan, with a change of - 20 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 142,418 tons, with an increase of 692 tons. The weekly inventory of smelters is 50,999 tons, with a decrease of 959 tons; the weekly inventory of downstream is 48,159 tons, with an increase of 2271 tons; the weekly inventory of others is 43,260 tons, with a decrease of 620 tons; the daily registered warehouse receipts are 16,443 tons, with an increase of 1420 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,214 yuan, and the profit is 1863 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 75,753 yuan, and the profit is - 7557 yuan [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Since late July, the spot and futures prices of rebar have weakened. The main futures price has fallen by 4.43% from its high, and the spot price in mainstream areas has dropped by 30 - 90 yuan/ton. The correction of optimistic sentiment and the accumulation of industrial contradictions in the steel market have led to the decline of steel prices. Currently, the demand for rebar remains weak, the supply benefits are limited, and the fundamental contradictions are accumulating. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate under pressure, and attention should be paid to changes in production restriction policies [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Optimistic Sentiment Correction - Since July, the dominant logic in the ferrous metal market has been the policy - driven positive expectations from "anti - involution." However, with limited policy implementation, the previous optimistic sentiment has been corrected. The Politburo meeting on July 30 changed the wording on capacity governance, and did not directly mention real - estate policies, weakening market expectations. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June, affected by the traditional off - season and natural disasters [3] - From the perspective of key industries, the PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were above the critical point, while the PMI of the consumer goods industry decreased by 0.9 percentage points from June, and that of the high - energy - consuming industry increased by 0.2 percentage points. The production and operation activity expectation index in July was 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from June, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] Supply Benefits Limited - As of the week ending August 1, the total inventory of rebar was 546290 tons, an increase of 7650 tons from the previous week, but still at a low level in recent years, with a year - on - year decrease of 196080 tons (26.41%). The rebar market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradictions are easy to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar is relatively low at 211060 tons, a decrease of 22830 tons from the previous high, mainly due to long - process steel mills' product transformation [5] - The positive effect of low supply is limited. Some steel mills that previously produced billets have returned to rebar production, and the profitability of short - process steel mills has improved significantly. The proportion of profitable steel mills among 90 independent electric arc furnaces is 52.89%, and the loss ratio is only 12.4%. Their operating rate has reached a high for the year, which will increase rebar supply. However, steel mills around Beijing may suspend production to ensure the smooth progress of the September 3 parade, which may boost the steel market sentiment [5][6] Demand Remains Weak - Due to weak demand, industrial contradictions in rebar continue to accumulate. As of the week ending August 1, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 203410 tons, a new low, down 5.67% year - on - year. Cement out - bound volume and concrete shipment volume, which directly reflect terminal demand, are also weak, down 10.43% and 4.91% year - on - year respectively [7] - The real - estate sales are sluggish, and there is no substantial improvement in the downstream industries of rebar. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged. The increase in steel prices in July stimulated the release of investment demand, and the increase in the number of rebar warehouse receipts on the SHFE may further increase the pressure on the demand side [7]

Macro Perspective - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year reached 5.3% supported by policies such as "two new" and "two heavy" as well as the overseas "export grabbing/transshipment effect" [3] - The urgency for short-term policy adjustments has decreased, with the focus shifting to the implementation of existing policies [3] Macro Liquidity - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates in July, raising concerns about a potential U.S. economic recession due to subsequent downward revisions of non-farm employment data [3] - Domestic policies will be adjusted based on changing risk challenges, with a focus on the implementation of existing monetary policies [3] Capital Market Liquidity - The A-share market has seen a recovery in investor sentiment, with increased trading volume and turnover rates, leading to rapid expansion in margin financing [4] - The overall liquidity in the A-share market is expected to continue its incremental process, supported by policy factors [4] A-share Market Outlook - Despite short-term challenges from mid-year performance reports, the "anti-involution" policy is expected to open up profit expectations [4] - A-share valuations may not be considered undervalued, but there is potential for price expectations to improve, supporting valuation increases [4] Industry Opportunities - Investment opportunities can be found in sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), pharmaceuticals, and defense industries, driven by AI trends and policy support [4] - The financial sector is expected to benefit from the stabilization of the capital market [4] - Resource sectors, including non-ferrous metals and chemicals, may see investment opportunities due to capacity management initiatives [4]

与此同时，国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会于7月31日发布的数据显示，受制造业 进入传统生产淡季以及部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，7月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%，较6月下降0.4个百分点。 从重点行业看，装备制造业和高技术制造业PMI分别为50.3%和50.6%，均持续高于临界点；消费品行业 PMI为49.5%，较6月下降0.9个百分点；高耗能行业PMI为48.0%，较6月上升0.2个百分点。市场预期方 面，7月，生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，较6月上升0.6个百分点，制造业企业对近期市场发展信心有 所增强。 7月末以来，螺纹钢期现价格有所走弱，主力期价自高位回落，跌幅达4.43%。与此同时，主流地区现 货价格也有不同程度的下跌，跌幅在30~90元/吨。综合来看，乐观情绪修正叠加钢市产业矛盾累积引发 钢价承压回落。 乐观情绪修正 7月以来，黑色金属市场的主导逻辑是"反内卷"所带来的政策利好预期，但随着预期兑现程度有限，前 期乐观情绪迎来修正。7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出，要依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进 重点行业产能治理。 相比7月1日中央财经委员会会议的表 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-08-08 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3231 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 3 元/吨（-0.09%）。当日注册仓单 93491 吨, 环 比增加 4235 吨。主力合约持仓量为 162.8167 万手，环比减少 24402 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3360 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3440 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 11 元/吨（-0.31%）。 当日注册仓单 70915 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 142.8587 万手，环比减少 31588 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3470 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage where supply growth slows down and demand is relatively stable, and the industry outlook is gradually improving under policy guidance. For alumina, it is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading at low prices, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage where supply remains high but the growth rate slows down, demand is weak due to the off - season, and inventory slightly accumulates. In the long term, the outlook is still positive after policy - guided optimization. For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum may be in a stage where supply slightly contracts and demand weakens in the off - season. For cast aluminum, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading, controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,211 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,621.50 US dollars/ton, up 56.50 US dollars [2]. - The main - contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum all increased, with increases of 7,409 hands, 3,692 hands, and 362 hands respectively [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts increased by 1,150 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,900 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.14 [2]. Spot Market - The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide, and Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum all increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous increased by 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum decreased by 595 yuan/ton, the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the basis of alumina increased by 30 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the current month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) decreased by 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina increased by 52.40 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 4,084.65 tons, and the export volume decreased by 8.11 tons. The export volume of alumina decreased by 4 million tons, and the import volume increased by 3.38 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.50 million tons, the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons [2]. - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 5.20 million tons, and the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles increased by 16.66 million vehicles, and the national real estate climate index decreased by 0.11 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy increased by 2.40 million tons, and the built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.10 million tons [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum for 20 days and 40 days decreased by 0.39% and 0.09% respectively [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0016%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0102 [2]. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on policy adjustment and inflation. The central bank's net liquidity injection in July decreased compared with the previous month, and the retail industry's prosperity index in August increased [2]. - In July, the retail sales of the national passenger car market increased by 7% year - on - year, and the retail sales of the new energy market increased by 14% year - on - year [2].

Group 1: Economic Context - The revision of the Price Law is the first major overhaul in 27 years, addressing the "increase in production without an increase in profit" dilemma and inward competition[4] - China's Producer Price Index (PPI) has experienced negative growth for 33 consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6% in June 2025, marking a new low in this negative growth cycle[5][6] - Industrial value-added increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, yet industrial profits fell by 1.8% year-on-year, highlighting the paradox of "increased production without increased profits"[5] Group 2: Legislative Changes - The Price Law revision expands the definition of "below-cost pricing" to include digital economy practices, enhancing the legal framework against unfair competition[5][13] - The revision raises the maximum penalty for violations from 5,000 yuan to 50,000 yuan, significantly increasing the deterrent effect on large enterprises[15] - New provisions specifically target algorithmic manipulation and hidden fees in the digital economy, marking a significant regulatory advancement[15] Group 3: Market Implications - The revision is expected to accelerate industry differentiation, pushing out non-compliant capacities and enhancing the competitive environment for compliant firms[16] - The anticipated recovery of PPI and profit margins may lead to a shift in capital market dynamics, with funds reallocating from defensive sectors to cyclical and "anti-involution" sectors[18] - The long-term goal of the Price Law revision is to transition the economy from a "price war" to an "innovation-driven" growth model, fostering sustainable economic development[18]

2025 年 8 月 7 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 螺纹钢：市场呈现观望，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：市场呈现观望，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,234 | 24 14 | 0.75 | | 期 货 | | 3,451 | | 0.41 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 1,202,766 | 1,652,569 | -56,263 | | | HC2510 | 561,631 | 1,460,175 | -1,559 | | | | （元/吨） 昨日价格 | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3370 | 33 ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/6 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润， ...