Group 1 - India seeks to maintain high tariffs on sensitive agricultural products such as food grains and dairy, despite proposing to reduce tariffs on items like almonds in negotiations with the US [1][5][6] - The US has threatened to impose a 25% tariff on non-US manufactured smartphones, with President Trump indicating he does not want Apple to establish manufacturing in India [3][4] - India's response to US tariffs includes plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on US products valued at $7.6 billion, with a potential tariff amounting to $1.91 billion [5][6] Group 2 - India currently imposes tariffs of 70%-80% on US rice and 30%-60% on US dairy products, while maintaining a firm stance on high tariffs for core agricultural products [6][7] - Recent trade agreements, such as with the UK, show India's willingness to reduce tariffs on certain products, but it remains protective of its sensitive agricultural sectors [7][8] - The Indian government aims to double bilateral trade with the US to $500 billion by 2030, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing trade relations while protecting domestic industries [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig price is expected to remain weak in the short term, with an overall supply surplus anticipated for the year, leading to a bearish outlook on prices [2][15] - The report suggests a shift from "cyclical thinking" to focusing on "quality and price" in investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency among different companies [4][16] - The outbreak of avian influenza in Brazil is expected to impact chicken prices positively in the domestic market, while the industry is seeing a concentration of profit margins towards upstream sources [5][17] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - The latest pig price is reported at 14.58 CNY/kg, with an average weight of 129.71 kg for market pigs. The price for 15 kg piglets is 630 CNY/head, and the price difference for 175 kg market pigs has decreased to 0.36 CNY/kg [3][15] - The number of breeding sows in March was 40.39 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and a decrease of 0.96% from the end of 2024, indicating a stable production capacity [3][15] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, due to their strong profit certainty in 2025 [4][16] 2. Poultry Industry - The outbreak of avian influenza in Brazil may lead to trade bans, which could support a rebound in domestic chicken prices. The current price for broiler chickens is 7.4 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease from the previous month [5][17] - The report identifies two main investment lines: high-return quality imported breeding stock and comprehensive industry leaders like San Nong Development [5][17] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to its cash flow turning point and high overseas growth potential. The fish prices have increased, while feed prices have decreased, indicating a recovery in aquaculture profitability [6][19] - The report notes that the capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are entering a new phase of stable cash flow [7][19] 4. Pet Industry - In April 2025, the sales figures for pet food showed a decline, with cat and dog food sales at 810 million CNY and 380 million CNY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of 4.7% and 6.2% [9][20] - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands like Mai Fudi and the growth of companies like Zhongchong, which are gaining market share [10][24] 5. Agricultural Products - The report indicates that domestic agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, with a potential upward trend in prices due to reduced imports. The forecast for corn imports has been adjusted down to 7 million tons for the 2024/2025 period [11][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of agricultural stocks as a defensive asset class, suggesting that the sector is currently undervalued [11][26] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 3889 points, up 1.12% from the previous week, while the agriculture index rose slightly by 0.05% to 2621 points [27][29] - The report notes that the pet food sector performed the best among sub-sectors, with a significant increase of 10.93% [27][29]

Group 1 - The European Union has proposed tariffs on a wide range of industrial and agricultural products imported from the United States, totaling €95 billion, if trade negotiations do not yield mutually beneficial results [1][2] - The proposed tariff list includes airplanes, which could negatively impact Ryanair, as it has orders with Boeing, along with bourbon whiskey, wine, cider, automobiles, bicycles, ships, smartphones, livestock, soybeans, olives, and limited pharmaceuticals [1] - The European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, has indicated that all possible measures will be taken if trade relations with the U.S. deteriorate, with specific tariff values outlined for various sectors, including €6.4 billion for agricultural products, €10.5 billion for airplanes, €10 billion for auto parts, €12.5 billion for chemicals and plastics, and €7.2 billion for electrical equipment [1] Group 2 - The European Commission is consulting on potential restrictions regarding €4.4 billion worth of scrap steel and chemicals exported to the U.S., addressing the unfair and harmful 10% general tariff and 25% tariff on EU-made automobiles imposed by the U.S. [2] - Von der Leyen stated that tariffs have negatively impacted the global economy, emphasizing the EU's commitment to finding solutions through negotiations while preparing for various possibilities [2] - Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar expressed a strong desire for a negotiated resolution, highlighting that in a trade war, everyone ultimately loses, with the poorest suffering the most [2]

外交部：中方对美芬太尼反制仍然有效 智通财经5月14日电，今天，外交部发言人林剑表示，中美双方在日内瓦的经贸会谈达成多项积极共 识，同意大幅降低双边关税水平。美方承诺取消91%关税，暂停实施24%的对等关税，相应的中方也取 消91%反制关税，暂停实施24%的反制关税，双方各自保留10%的关税。美方以芬太尼为借口，对中国 无理加征两轮关税，中方均第一时间采取包括关税和非关税措施在内的反制举措，坚定维护自身正当权 益，这些反制措施仍然有效。 ...

印度股指Nifty指数盘前小幅下跌。印度向世界贸易组织（WTO）申诉，提议对在美国制造并运往印度 的一些产品征收关税，以对抗华盛顿对亚洲第三大经济体生产的钢铁和铝产品征收的关税。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the pig price is expected to maintain fluctuations in the short term, with a slight increase in production capacity observed in April. The current pig price is 14.79 CNY/kg, with an average weight of 129.71 kg for market pigs [6][20] - The report suggests a shift from "cyclical thinking" to focusing on financial performance, emphasizing that the efficiency differences among companies are significant. It recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, due to their strong profit certainty in 2025 [7][21] - The poultry sector is experiencing a rebound in chicken prices, with the latest prices for broiler chickens at 7.46 CNY/kg and chick prices at 3.1 CNY each. The report indicates that the industry is facing quality issues with breeding stock, leading to a concentration of profits towards upstream sources [8][22] - In the feed sector, the report recommends Haida Group due to its cash flow turning point and overseas growth potential. The fish prices have shown positive trends, with various species experiencing year-on-year increases [9][23][24] - The pet industry is noted for its continuous growth, with sales data indicating a decline in some segments but strong performance from certain brands like MaiFudi and Fuleijiate. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic brands and their market performance [13][25][29] - The agricultural products sector is expected to see price increases due to reduced imports and a focus on domestic supply, with the report highlighting the importance of improving farmers' income through price adjustments [16][31] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Industry - Short-term pig prices are expected to fluctuate, with a current price of 14.79 CNY/kg and an average weight of 129.71 kg for market pigs. The production capacity is slightly increasing, with a total of 40.39 million breeding sows reported [6][20] - The report suggests that the overall supply of pigs is expected to be high, leading to a weak price outlook in the medium to long term [20][21] 2. Poultry Industry - Chicken prices are rebounding, with broiler prices at 7.46 CNY/kg and chick prices at 3.1 CNY each. The report indicates that the industry is facing quality issues with breeding stock, leading to a concentration of profits towards upstream sources [8][22] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to its cash flow turning point and overseas growth potential. Fish prices have shown positive trends, with various species experiencing year-on-year increases [9][23][24] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is noted for its continuous growth, with sales data indicating a decline in some segments but strong performance from certain brands like MaiFudi and Fuleijiate. The report emphasizes the importance of domestic brands and their market performance [13][25][29] 5. Agricultural Products - The agricultural products sector is expected to see price increases due to reduced imports and a focus on domestic supply, with the report highlighting the importance of improving farmers' income through price adjustments [16][31]

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) aims to enhance deterrence against the US by increasing retaliatory measures, hoping to compel the US to take EU demands seriously and initiate formal negotiations [1][2] - The EU Commission announced plans to file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organization regarding US tariff policies and is considering potential countermeasures on US imports worth €95 billion [1][2] - The EU's retaliatory measures reflect its basic stance on the tariff issue, indicating a desire for mutual compromise, including potential increases in imports of US agricultural products and energy [1][2] Group 2 - Despite the EU's willingness to negotiate, significant differences remain between the US and EU regarding tariff issues, with the US not prioritizing the resolution of these relations [2] - The EU has officially initiated a consultation process regarding the €95 billion retaliatory measures, which will take one month to complete, focusing on which US products will face retaliatory tariffs [3] - The complexity of internal EU interests may affect the response to US countermeasures, potentially impacting trade cooperation and causing losses for EU member states [3]

2025.05. 09 本文字数：2095，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 当地时间8月，欧盟委员会（下称"欧委会"）就对美国关税反制措施的产品清单展开公众咨询。 欧委会拿出了一份价值950亿欧元的进口产品清单和一份价值44亿欧元的欧盟对美出口产品清单，其 中包括可能被征收出口关税的废金属(废钢和化学品)。不过欧委会此次没有列出可能的关税水平。 据第一财经记者梳理，该清单涉及美国对欧洲出口的葡萄酒、波本酒和其他烈酒、鱼类、飞机、汽车 和汽车零部件、化学品、电气设备、保健产品和机械等产品。欧盟没有将医药产品或半导体产品列入 清单。 欧委会还表示，将准备就美国开征的所谓"对等关税"和汽车关税向世界贸易组织（WTO）提出磋商 请求，认为这些关税公然违反WTO基本原则。 欧委会主席冯德莱恩表示："关税已经对全球经济产生了负面影响。欧盟将一如既往地致力于通过谈 判与美国取得成果。我们相信，为了大西洋两岸消费者和企业的利益，可以达成很好的协议。同时， 我们将继续为各种可能性做好准备，今天启动的磋商将有助于指导我们开展这项必要的工作。" 目前正在法国调研的对外经济贸易大学法国经济研究中心主任、巴黎索邦大学博 ...

据欧盟委员会消息，欧盟计划对950亿欧元的美国进口产品采取潜在反制措施，并向世贸组织提起诉 讼。欧盟希望通过升级反制措施，加大对美国的威慑，迫使其认真考虑欧盟方面的诉求，尽快启动正式 谈判。欧盟已启动磋商程序，讨论具体对哪些美国产品进行报复性征税。(央视新闻) ...

欧委会将在6月底或7月初对答复进行审核，并制定最终的产品清单。 当地时间8月，欧盟委员会（下称"欧委会"）就对美国关税反制措施的产品清单展开公众咨询。 欧委会拿出了一份价值950亿欧元的进口产品清单和一份价值44亿欧元的欧盟对美出口产品清单，其中包括可能被 征收出口关税的废金属(废钢和化学品)。不过欧委会此次没有列出可能的关税水平。 据第一财经记者梳理，该清单涉及美国对欧洲出口的葡萄酒、波本酒和其他烈酒、鱼类、飞机、汽车和汽车零部 件、化学品、电气设备、保健产品和机械等产品。欧盟没有将医药产品或半导体产品列入清单。 欧委会还表示，将准备就美国开征的所谓"对等关税"和汽车关税向世界贸易组织（WTO）提出磋商请求，认为这 些关税公然违反WTO基本原则。 8日，欧委会的声明表示，此次公布清单是为了进行公开咨询，"如果欧盟与美国正在进行的谈判不能取得互利的 结果并取消美国的关税，欧盟可能会对这些产品采取反制措施。" 欧盟解释，自美国征收不合理的有害关税（unjustified and harmful tariffs）以来，欧盟一直优先考虑通过谈判，包 括在美国宣布的90天部分暂停关税的框架内，找到一个互利和平衡的解决 ...