农产品日报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周一，玉米近月 2603 合约继续大幅减仓，日持仓减少 11 万手，5 月合约跟随减 | | | | 仓，玉米价钱合约持仓下降 13 万张，玉米近、远月合约期价联动下行，日跌幅 | | | | 扩大。今日华北地区玉米价格稳中偏强运行，延续周末上涨的趋势，但上涨动力 | | | | 不足。山东深加工企业今日早间剩余车辆 500 台以上，深加工企业全天卸货量尚 | | | | 可，部分库存较低企业继续上调 6-20 元/吨。随着春节临近，农户售粮意愿增加， | | | | 但目前基层粮点仍然未出现明显上量的情况，今年农户整体售粮节奏相对平均。 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 销区市场玉米价格主流小幅下跌。周末北港价格下跌，叠加期货盘面偏弱，销区 | | | | 港口贸易商报价松动。下游饲料需求一般，市场成交偏淡。技术上，玉米 3 月合 | | | | 约在 2300 整数关口遇阻回落，多头资金减仓离场，期价调整。受现货和近月合 | | | | 约调整因素影响，玉米 5、7 月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating weakly" [3] Core View of the Report - The supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient, and the congestion in logistics is expected to shift the selling pressure of Brazilian discounts. The domestic purchase and shipping profit is at a high level. The unilateral short - term rebound is expected to be limited, and it will maintain an oscillating and weak trend later. The domestic supply - demand in the first quarter is expected to be loose, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is biased towards reverse arbitrage [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Supply - Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting period. As of January 24, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season was 6.6%, faster than the same period last year. However, there is a shipping delay due to a shortage of trucks. The pre - sale progress of new crops is about 31%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA estimates the Brazilian soybean output in the 25/26 season to reach 178 million tons, and the expected discount will face selling pressure [3] - Recently, the soybean - producing areas in Argentina have been dry, and the crop quality rate has declined. As of January 21, the proportion of good - rated soybean crops in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 53%. There is an expectation of rainfall recovery in the next two weeks [3] - According to domestic purchase and shipping situations, the expected arrival volume in February is 4.84 million tons, and in March is 4.7 million tons. The global rapeseed output in 2025/26 is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of China - Canada trade policies [3] Demand - Recently, the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to decline seasonally. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit has turned positive, the pig inventory is at a high level, and the capacity reduction is not obvious. Under the expectation of capacity adjustment and policy control, the feed demand in the far - month is expected to shrink [3] - The pre - festival stocking of soybean meal is over, the far - month trading volume has increased, and the pick - up performance is good. The trading and pick - up performance of rapeseed meal downstream is average [3] Inventory - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are seasonally decreasing, but are still at a high level. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased, and the domestic rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted [3] Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [3] Profit - The purchase and crushing profit of new domestic soybean crops is good, and the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is also good [3] Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively high valuation; from the perspective of absolute price, it is at a relatively low valuation [3] Investment View - The investment view is "oscillating weakly". The domestic supply - demand in the first quarter is expected to be loose, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is biased towards reverse arbitrage [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Arbitrage: M3 - M5 reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [3] 2. Fundamental Data on Supply and Demand of Meal Products Inventory - Consumption Ratio - In January, the inventory - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 25/26 season were raised [27] - In January, the global rapeseed inventory - consumption ratio was lowered [33] Production and Sales - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and the inventory of feed enterprises has increased [71] - The US soybean export sales progress is slow [51] - The Brazilian soybean harvest rate is presented in the report [58] Price and Profit - The US soybean domestic crushing profit has increased [43] - The Canadian rapeseed CFR price and the import crushing profit are presented in the report [63] Other Data - Data such as the soybean CNF premium, the import soybean futures margin, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, and the import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in different months are presented in the report [60][65][67] - Data on the opening rate, crushing volume, trading volume, pick - up volume, and apparent consumption of major domestic oil mills are presented in the report [79][82][83] - Data on the inventory of domestic imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal in major regions, the trading volume and pick - up volume of oil - mill rapeseed meal are presented in the report [86][94] - The cost - performance of soybean meal has declined [97] - Data on the feed monthly output, pig farming profit, pig price, chicken farming profit, egg - laying hen farming profit, etc. are presented in the report [100][102][110]

【品种观点】 阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所周四表示，阿根廷西部关键农业产区近期的降雨令土壤墒情得 到改善，但大豆和玉米作物未来几周仍需更多降水方能避免单产下降。该交易所估计，阿根廷 2025/26 年度大豆收割面积为 1760 万公顷，低于前一年度的 1840 万公顷，但预计玉米收割面积在 780 万公顷， 高于前一年度的 710 万公顷。 最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入阶段性 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 去库。阿根廷大豆地区的干旱天气以及上周达沃斯中美会晤后，美政府对美豆出口 | | 豆粕 | | 中国展望乐观，叠加美生柴政策预期，支撑美豆基本面暂偏多。但巴西丰产收割上 | | | 短线遇阻回落 | 市，交易商普遍预计，近期集中采购美豆之后，未来几个月中国买家将主要转向巴 | | ★ | | 西市场寻求供应。这一结构性转变将持续对美豆出口前景及价格形成制约。美豆小 | | | | 幅收跌，叠加国内节前市场备货情绪表现一般，周五国内豆粕自反弹高位大幅回落。 | | | | 考虑阿根廷降雨依然不足，豆粕短 ...

长江期货粕类油脂月报 2026-02-02 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 豆粕：利多驱动匮乏，豆粕区间运行 02 油脂：宏观及资金离场扰动，高位波 动加剧 01 01 豆粕：利多驱动匮乏，豆粕区间运行 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止1月30日，华东现货报价3060元/吨，月度报价上涨10元/吨；M2605合约收盘至2762元/吨，月度下跌5元/吨；基差报价05+300元 /吨，基差报价上涨20元/吨。月度美豆围绕区间【1030，1100】美分区间波动为主，生柴及成本支撑美豆底部，但销售压力及供需宽松限制美 豆上方空间，区间震荡为主；豆粕05合约围绕【2700，2800】区间波动，进口成本支撑下方价格，但4月后国内到港宽松以及巴西大豆进口成 本下降，限制涨幅，跟随美豆区间波动为主。 ◆ 供应端：月度美豆单产维持53蒲/英亩，但需求不足下美豆库销比上移；巴西进入收割阶段，丰产预期较强，但巴西南部及阿根廷面临阶段性高 温干 ...

发期货页 场。在任何 何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成肤 发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货 分析方法: 具附属 经常主要将经济 网 哈自拍 下得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货" | 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 2026年2月2日 Z0019938 | | 原 | | 1月30日 1月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 江苏均价 8670 8790 -120 -1.37% 现价 | | 期份 Y2605 8282 8382 -100 -1.19% | | 募差 Y2605 388 408 -20 -4.90% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05+400 05 + 410 -10 - | | 仓单 25960 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 1月30日 1月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 9240 9370 -130 -1.39% | | 期价 P2605 9240 9362 -122 -1.30% | | 基差 P2605 0 8 -8 -100.00% | | 现货基差报价 广 ...

2026年02月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪退潮，地缘影响衰减 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：盘面震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：预计保持震荡走势20260202 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 9 | | 生猪：供应将加速兑现，节前压力扩大 | 10 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 豆油：高位震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 02 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：宏观情绪退潮，地缘影响衰减 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,240 | 涨跌幅 -1.30% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,296 | 涨跌幅 0.61% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [4] - The investment rating for the corn market is neutral [4] Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic soybean meal price is expected to be weak in the long - term due to high inventory and future supply pressure from Brazilian new - season soybeans, despite short - term strength influenced by US soybeans [3] - Corn prices may be affected by downstream stocking demand, snow - affected arrivals, and inventory changes [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2802 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2325 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (+1.22%) [1] - Spot: Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong had stable soybean meal spot prices, with their basis to M05 decreasing by 20. Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was stable, with its basis to RM05 decreasing by 28 [1] - South American Situation: Argentina's soybean sowing was 96.2% complete as of January 21, with a 10 - percentage - point drop in the proportion of normal - to - excellent crop ratings. Brazil's expected January 2026 soybean exports were 323 million tons, lower than the previous estimate and up 188% from last year [2] Market Analysis - Soybean meal and soybean inventories are high. The domestic soybean meal price is currently strong due to US soybeans, but will likely weaken as Brazilian new - season soybeans are supplied [3] Strategy - The strategy for soybean meal is cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2281 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.31%); the corn starch 2603 contract was 2535 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [4] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was stable, with its basis to C03 decreasing by 7. Jilin's corn starch spot price was stable, with its basis to CS03 decreasing by 5 [4] - Brazilian Exports: Brazil's expected January 2026 corn exports were 339 million tons, lower than the previous estimate but up 6.4% from last year [4] Market Analysis - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking starts. Snow affects corn arrivals, causing prices to rise and deep - processing enterprise inventories to increase. North port inventories increase slightly, while south port domestic inventories are consumed [5] Strategy - The strategy for corn is neutral [4]

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收跌，连粕调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面跟随商品市场情绪波动 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：关注低基差期现机会 | 7 | | 棉花：维持偏强震荡20260130 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节后淡季预期未变 | 10 | | 生猪：需求表现不及预期，供应矛盾释放 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 2026年01月30日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 30 日 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 豆油：高位震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,362 | 涨跌幅 0.99% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,348 | 涨跌幅 -0.15% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as "Neutral" [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market shows a complex situation with short - term support from pre - holiday stocking but facing downstream and price - difference pressures, and long - term trends depend on policy implementation; the sugar market is expected to bottom - out with short - to - medium - term oscillations; the pulp market will continue to oscillate at a low level due to insufficient domestic fundamental improvements [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,565 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton (-0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,633 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,953 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the yarn output of large - scale enterprises was 2.132 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month increase of 4.56%; the cloth output was 3.01 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% and a month - on - month increase of 7.12% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA in January lowered the global cotton output and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the US cotton export signing progress is slow. Domestically, the 25/26 cotton year has a large increase in production, and commercial inventories are seasonally rising. Although pre - holiday stocking led to good spot transactions, downstream new orders decreased, and finished product inventories were high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pre - holiday stocking supports cotton prices in the short term, but the domestic market faces downstream and price - difference pressures. The long - term trend depends on the implementation of policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,168 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average of 108,600 tons [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar inventory is decreasing, and the short - term export in the Northern Hemisphere is limited, which supports the raw sugar price in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply from Brazil and Thailand will increase, and the market is expected to be loose. In the long term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and the planting area in Thailand may shrink. In the domestic market, Guangxi sugar mills are in the peak crushing period, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high, but the syrup import has decreased significantly. The domestic sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage, with limited downward space [4] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider the short - to - medium - term sugar price to be in the process of bottom - out oscillation, and pay attention to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,342 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with a few weakening [6] Market Analysis - The supply side was affected by overseas pulp mill shutdown and maintenance and price increases, but the global wood pulp inventory is still increasing. The demand side shows marginal improvement in Europe in November, but the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, the domestic fundamentals have not improved enough, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [7]

l数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 中国港口大豆库存(万吨) == == == == == ==== 2020 ===== 2021 ===== 2022 ===== 2023 ====== 2024 ====== 2025 = 2026 · 2025 · 2026 == === 2023 1200 1000 1000 800 800 600 400 200 200 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 01/01 01/01 02/01 03/04 04/04 05/05 06/05 07/06 08/06 09/06 10/07 11/07 12/08 饲料企业豆粕库存天数 全国主要油厂豆粕库存(万吨) 全国主要油厂开机率(%) 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2026/1/28 | 指标 | | 1月27日 | 涨跌 | | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- ...