1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Affected by the decline of US soybean oil futures, the crude palm oil futures have adjusted at a high level. Supported by potential positive factors such as slow - down or decline in production due to rainstorms and continuous improvement in exports, the crude palm oil futures may return above 4,500 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures market is in high - level shock adjustment, and there is a risk of a rapid downward break in prices [1]. - Soybean oil: The biofuel blending obligation redistribution proposal of the US Environmental Protection Agency lacks a clear mechanism for small refinery exemptions, leading to short - selling of CBOT soybean oil futures. In the domestic market, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and consumption is increasing. The market is concerned about the soybean import volume in the fourth quarter [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - In the short term, the market supply and demand are slightly loose, the futures price fluctuates weakly, but there is strong support around 2,150. In the medium term, the situation remains weak, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and opening price [2]. 2.3 Meal - The bio - diesel blending policy has high uncertainty, the demand prospect of US soybeans is unclear, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues. The domestic concern about supply in the fourth quarter is gradually alleviated, but there are many short - term negative factors, suppressing soybean meal, yet there is a basis for subsequent rebound [5]. 2.4 Live Pigs - The slaughter of the breeding end increases, and the spot pressure is continuously realized. The demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can smoothly absorb the supply is uncertain. The Ministry of Agriculture intends to strengthen production capacity regulation, the spot price lacks support, and the near - month contracts are in weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 and 3 - 7 reverse spread opportunities [6][7]. 2.5 Sugar - The supply pressure causes the raw sugar price to drop significantly. The import volume increases, the actual transaction price of processed sugar falls below 6,000, and the domestic sales data in August is poor. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will maintain a weak pattern [10]. 2.6 Cotton - In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range. In the long term, it will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [11]. 2.7 Eggs - Recently, the increase in demand may drive up the egg price, which is expected to reach the annual high. However, the high inventory and cold - storage egg release may suppress the increase. After the replenishment of traders next week, the demand may weaken, and the egg price in some areas may decline slightly [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On September 18, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,540 yuan/ton, down 1.73% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8,284 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. The basis of Y2601 was 256 yuan/ton, down 20.99% [1]. - **Palm oil**: On September 18, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, down 1.90%; the futures price of P2601 was 9,304 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The basis of P2601 was - 34 yuan/ton, down 230.77% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On September 18, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,060 yuan/ton, down 0.49%; the futures price of Ol601 was 9,984 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The basis of Ol601 was 76 yuan/ton, down 31.53% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On September 18, the futures price of corn 2511 was 2,177 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; the basis was 103 yuan/ton, down 20.16% [2]. - **Corn starch**: On September 18, the futures price of corn starch 2511 was 2,471 yuan/ton, up 0.73%; the basis was 89 yuan/ton, down 16.82% [2]. 3.3 Meal - **Soybean meal**: On September 18, the spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 2,950 yuan/ton, down 1.01%; the futures price of M2601 was 2,993 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The basis of M2601 was - 43 yuan/ton, down 95.45% [5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: On September 18, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2,570 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2,470 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The basis of RM2601 was 100 yuan/ton, down 9.09% [5]. 3.4 Live Pigs - On September 18, the futures price of live pigs 2511 was 12,830 yuan/ton, down 1.31%; the spot price in Henan was 12,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Sugar - On September 18, the futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,474 yuan/ton, down 0.99%; the spot price in Nanning was 5,840 yuan/ton, down 0.51% [10]. 3.6 Cotton - On September 18, the futures price of cotton 2605 was 13,725 yuan/ton, down 0.90%; the Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,249 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [11]. 3.7 Eggs - On September 18, the futures price of the egg 11 - contract was 3,132 yuan/500KG, up 0.51%; the egg - producing area price was 3.73 yuan/jin, down 0.91% [14].

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-09-19 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周四美豆小幅回落，维持区间震荡趋势。周四国内豆粕现货下跌 10 元/吨，华东基差 01-110 持平，国内 豆粕成交尚可，提货处于高位。上周下游库存天数上升 0.42 天至 9.22 天，据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压 榨大豆 236 万吨，本周预计压榨 238 万吨，上周国内大豆、豆粕库存环比几乎持平，同比处于近年同期 高位。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨量正常，8 月因干旱大豆优良率下滑，但 USDA 仅下调 0.1 蒲式耳/英亩单产，且 收割面积上调 20 万英亩。巴西方面，升贴水近期开始回落。总体来看，进口大豆成本受到美豆低估值、 中美贸易关系及巴西种植季节交易的支撑，但上方也面临全球蛋白原料供应过剩、巴西或持续扩大种植 面积以及中美关系若缓和引发短期供应过剩的压力。 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wan ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-18 西部早富士交易收尾，红枣关注减产幅度 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8272元/吨，较前一日变动+3元/吨，幅度+0.04%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-672，较前一日变动-3；陕西洛川70# 以上半商 品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+1328，较前一日变动-3。 策略 中性。当前库存水平处于低位，价格存在底部支撑，新季上量好货价格偏高，对库存苹果走货有一定影响，预计 短期价格仍表现稳定。 风险 产区天气情况、货源质量问题、销区走货情况 红枣观点 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯，西部近期多雨天气，晚富士尚未脱袋，早熟富士交易陆续收尾，剩余货源质量出现分化，好货剩 余不多，多按货给价；采青富士陆续脱袋等待上色。山东产区红将军好货成交不多，上色不佳问题存在，库存富 士成交较前略放缓，客商拿货多以好货及性价比很高的货源为主。陕西延安洛川产区早熟富士70#以上市场主流价 格3.8-4.1元/斤，一般货3.5-3.7元/斤 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans/meal, the monthly supply - demand report has limited impact. The market rebounds due to full reflection of previous negatives and macro - factors. South American demand is good, and overall price support exists but with limited upside. In China, supply is ample, demand is good, and inventory pressure is relatively large, so prices are expected to fluctuate [2][4][6]. - For sugar, globally, supply is transitioning from a deficit to a surplus. International prices are expected to rebound at low levels, and in the domestic market, Zheng sugar is likely to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short - term [11]. - For the oil and fat sector, the US biodiesel has been digested, and the oil and fat market has declined. The increase in production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price of palm oil is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of inventory accumulation, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, so prices are expected to oscillate and provide opportunities to buy on dips [17]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn futures have declined, and the rebound space is limited. In China, corn supply is still scarce, and spot prices are expected to fall. The 01 corn contract is in bottom - range oscillation with limited downward space [26][28]. - For live pigs, large - scale enterprises maintain high slaughter volumes, and overall supply remains stable. With relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices [34]. - For peanuts, the supply of new peanuts is still limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [40]. - For eggs, as restocking in each link nears completion, egg prices are expected to face pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [47]. - For apples, the high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is poor. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [54]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, new cotton is entering the acquisition period. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand improvement is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [65]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **Outer - market situation**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.4% to 1062.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.75% to 290 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Relevant information**: USDA export sales report forecast shows expected US 2025/26 market - year soybean export net sales of 40 - 150 tons; Anec reported Brazilian soybean and meal export volumes from September 14 - 20; extreme weather may delay Brazilian soybean planting by 2 - 3 weeks; Chinese oil mills' soybean inventory increased, and meal inventory also increased [2][3]. - **Logic analysis**: The monthly supply - demand report has limited impact, and the market rebounds due to previous negatives and macro - factors. South American demand is good, and overall price support exists but with limited upside. In China, supply is ample, demand is good, and inventory pressure is relatively large, so prices are expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Unilateral: wait and see; Arbitrage: expand the MRM05 spread; Options: wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Outer - market changes**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar prices both fell [7]. - **Important information**: Brazilian sugar exports in the first two weeks of September decreased compared to last year; 10 - month contract delivery information; the global sugar market is transitioning from a deficit to a surplus, and Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties [8][9][10]. - **Logic analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and global inventory is increasing. The expected increase in global sugar production is high, and prices are expected to rebound at low levels. Domestically, a large amount of imported sugar has entered the market, and Zheng sugar is likely to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short - term [11]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider buying near the previous low; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell out - of - the - money put options near the previous low [12][13]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Outer - market situation**: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil prices both decreased [15]. - **Relevant information**: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in early September; Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase; Chinese oil and fat trading volume decreased [16]. - **Logic analysis**: US biodiesel has been digested, and the oil and fat market has declined. The increase in production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price of palm oil is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of inventory accumulation, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory [17]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider buying on dips; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [18][19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Outer - market changes**: CBOT corn futures fell [23]. - **Important information**: CBOT corn futures fell due to profit - taking and a stronger dollar; Chinese port corn and related product inventories changed; corn processing and starch production increased, and starch inventory decreased; North port purchase prices were weak [24][25]. - **Logic analysis**: US corn futures have declined, and the rebound space is limited. In China, corn supply is still scarce, and spot prices are expected to fall. The 01 corn contract is in bottom - range oscillation with limited downward space [26][28]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: wait for the 12 - month contract to correct and buy the 01 contract after it stabilizes; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [29][30][31]. Live Pigs - **Relevant information**: Pig prices are generally falling; piglet and sow prices are also falling; agricultural product wholesale price indices and pork prices decreased [33]. - **Logic analysis**: Large - scale enterprises maintain high slaughter volumes, and overall supply remains stable. With relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices [34]. - **Strategy suggestions**: Unilateral: take a short - term bearish view on near - month contracts; Arbitrage: conduct LH15 reverse spreads; Options: buy long - term call options [35]. Peanuts - **Important information**: Peanut prices increased slightly; oil mills' purchase prices and arrival volumes were affected by rain; peanut oil and meal prices were stable; peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [36][37][39]. - **Logic analysis**: The supply of new peanuts is still limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [40]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: the 11 and 01 contracts are in bottom - range oscillation, and try short - term long positions on the 05 contract after it corrects; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - **Important information**: Egg prices are oscillating, with some areas stable and some falling; the number of laying hens in production increased in August; egg sales and inventories decreased [45][46]. - **Trading logic**: As restocking in each link nears completion, egg prices are expected to face pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [47]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: consider short - selling on rallies; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [48][49]. Apples - **Important information**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; apple exports increased, and imports decreased slightly; mid - season apple prices were firm, and new - season apple prices varied by region; storage merchants' profits decreased [51][52][53]. - **Trading logic**: The high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is poor. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [54]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: wait and see; Arbitrage: wait and see first; Options: wait and see [57][58]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Outer - market impact**: ICE US cotton prices fell [60]. - **Important information**: The Fed cut interest rates; Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listings changed; Zhangjiagang bonded - area cotton inventory decreased slightly [61][62]. - **Trading logic**: New cotton is entering the acquisition period. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand improvement is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [65]. - **Trading strategies**: Unilateral: expect US cotton to oscillate, and Zheng cotton to be slightly weak, and trade opportunistically; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: With the slight increase in export data from September 1 - 15 announced by shipping agency ITS, and due to the co - existence of long and short factors in fundamentals, the crude palm oil futures are expected to maintain a strong consolidation around 4500 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil [1]. - Soybean oil: The NOPA report shows that the soybean oil inventory of member enterprises on August 31 decreased by 9.7% month - on - month, reaching an 8 - month low, which supports the US soybean oil supply. In the domestic market, due to sufficient soybean supply, factories maintain high operating rates. Last week, the operating rate rose to around 65%, increasing soybean oil production and inventory. Although the consumption during the stocking period this year is higher than the off - season, it is lower year - on - year. The speculation of limited soybean imports in the fourth quarter may lead to a possible increase in basis quotes [1]. Corn - In the supply side, the remaining grain in the Northeast is insufficient, but the new season's listing is slow, and the overall arrival volume is average, with some prices rising. In the North China region, the new season's corn is gradually listed, and the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants is large, with prices running weakly and having room to fall as more new grain is listed. In the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises are mainly replenishing their inventories, with no obvious highlights. In the short - term, the market supply and demand are loose, the futures price fluctuates weakly, but it has strong support around 2150. In the medium - term, it will remain weak, and attention should be paid to the new grain purchase rhythm and opening price [2]. Sugar - The price of raw sugar is expected to bottom - out and rebound, with limited momentum to break below 15 cents per pound in the short - term. However, considering the oversupply of raw sugar, it is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, with a reference range of 15 - 17 cents per pound. The import volume of sugar has increased, and processing sugar factories are fully operational. The actual transaction price of processed sugar has fallen below 6000, occupying the sales area market. The external transportation in Guangxi is blocked, and the domestic sales data in August is poor. As of the end of August, the national industrial inventory is 116.23 million tons, an increase of 6 million tons year - on - year, with still existing spot pressure. The futures price is expected to stabilize around 5500 in the short - term due to the rebound of raw sugar, but the overall rebound space is limited, and a high - selling strategy is recommended in the later stage [6][7]. Cotton - In the supply side, machine - picked seed cotton may gradually start being purchased this week, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. In the demand side, the inventory of downstream finished products is still decreasing, but the shipment has slowed down slightly, and the downstream has insufficient confidence in the traditional peak season, but the rigid demand may still provide support. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range, and it will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long - term [8]. Meal - According to the USDA September supply - demand report, the production increased month - on - month compared with last month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased slightly. The good - quality rate of US soybeans remains high, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand for US soybeans continues. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut meets market expectations, and the futures price lacks positive support, putting pressure on US soybeans. The high premium of Brazilian soybeans supports the domestic cost. In the domestic market, the concern about the supply in the fourth quarter is gradually alleviated, the spot market is loose, oil mills' soybean meal inventory continues to accumulate, and terminal users lack enthusiasm for stocking. The supply of soybeans in January - February next year is not loose, and the uncertainty mainly lies in the Sino - US negotiations. Attention should be paid to the support of the 01 contract around 3000 [10]. Pork - The increase in slaughter by farmers has continuously realized the spot pressure. Currently, the demand is slowly recovering, but there is still a large uncertainty whether the demand can smoothly absorb the clearly recovering supply. The weight of retail farmers' pigs remains high, and there may be continuous slaughter pressure before the Double Festival. The Ministry of Agriculture's meeting on September 16 revealed the intention to further strengthen production capacity regulation, and it is expected that the pressure on farmers to reduce production will increase, with the impact on slaughter mainly reflected after mid - next year. The spot price lacks support, and the futures price should be carefully speculated. The near - month contracts will maintain a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [12][13]. Eggs - Recently, the increase in procurement by traders may drive up the egg price, and it is expected to rise to the annual high. However, the high inventory and the outflow of cold - stored eggs from warehouses may limit the increase. After traders finish replenishing their stocks in the second half of next week, the demand may weaken, and there is a risk of a slight decline in egg prices in some areas [18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 30 to 8690, with a 0.35% increase; the futures price of Y2601 decreased by 52 to 8366, a 0.62% decrease; the basis of Y2601 increased by 82 to 324, a 33.88% increase [1]. - Palm oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 50 to 9450, a 0.53% increase; the futures price of P2601 decreased by 28 to 9424, a 0.61% decrease; the basis of P2601 increased by 108 to 26, a 131.71% increase [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 50 to 10110, a 0.50% increase; the futures price of O1601 decreased by 54 to 9999, a 0.54% decrease; the basis of O1601 increased by 104 to 111, a 1485.71% increase [1]. - **Spread Changes**: - The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil decreased by 28 to 268, a 9.46% decrease; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil decreased by 18 to 212, a 7.83% decrease; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 1 to 466, a 0.21% decrease [1]. - The spot spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 20 to - 760, a 2.70% decrease; the 2601 spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 6 to - 1058, a 0.56% increase [1]. - The spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased by 20 to 1420, a 1.43% increase; the 2601 spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 2 to 1633, a 0.12% decrease [1]. Corn - **Price Changes**: - The FOB price of corn 2511 at Jinzhou Port decreased by 5 to 2161, a 0.23% decrease; the basis decreased by 15 to 129, a 10.42% decrease; the 11 - 3 spread decreased by 3 to - 5, a 150.00% decrease [2]. - The spot price of corn starch 2511 increased by 10 to 2453, a 0.41% increase; the basis decreased by 10 to 107, an 8.55% decrease; the 11 - 3 spread remained unchanged at - 32 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the Northeast, the remaining grain is insufficient, and the new season's listing is slow. In North China, the new season's corn is gradually listed, and the number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants is large. Deep - processing and feed enterprises are mainly replenishing their inventories [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 decreased by 18 to 5529, a 0.32% decrease; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4 to 19, a 17.39% decrease; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 280 to 10988, a 2.48% decrease [6]. - **Spot Market**: The national average price decreased by 20 to 5870, a 0.34% decrease; the Nanning basis decreased by 6 to 360, a 1.64% decrease; the import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) decreased by 28 to 4433, a 0.63% decrease [6]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production increased by 119.89 to 1116.21, a 12.03% increase; the cumulative national sugar sales increased by 114 to 1000, a 12.87% increase; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi increased by 28.36 to 646.50, a 4.59% increase [6]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2605 decreased by 10 to 13850, a 0.07% decrease; the 5 - 1 spread decreased by 2 to - 40, a 14.29% decrease; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 144 to 4615, a 3.03% decrease [8]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 12 to 15226, a 0.08% increase; the 3128B - 01 contract spread increased by 22 to 1376, a 1.62% increase [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 33.85 to 148.17, an 18.6% decrease; the industrial inventory decreased by 3.19 to 89.23, a 3.5% decrease; the cotton outbound shipment volume increased by 9.86 to 53.46, a 22.6% increase [8]. Meal - **Price Changes**: - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 20 to 2980, a 1.65% decrease; the futures price of M2601 decreased by 30 to 3002, a 1.28% decrease; the basis of M2601 decreased by 11 to - 22, a 100.00% decrease [10]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 50 to 2570, a 1.91% decrease; the futures price of RM2601 decreased by 58 to 2460, a 2.30% decrease; the basis of RM2601 increased by 8 to 110, a 7.84% increase [10]. - **Spread Changes**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal decreased by 18 to 221, a 7.53% decrease; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 22 to 99, an 18.18% decrease; the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 0.058 to 2.92, a 2.03% increase [10]. Pork - **Futures Market**: The futures price of live hogs 2511 decreased by 160 to 13000, a 1.22% decrease; the 11 - 1 spread increased by 10 to - 510, a 1.92% increase; the number of open positions increased by 9219 to 94076, a 10.86% increase [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan decreased by 250 to 12950; the daily slaughter volume of sample points decreased by 26 to 148608, a 0.40% decrease; the weekly white - striped pork price decreased by 0.1 to 19.97, a 0.65% decrease [12]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The futures price of egg 11 contract increased by 3 to 3116, a 0.10% increase; the 11 - 10 spread increased by 34 to 57, a 147.83% increase; the basis increased by 6 to 651, a 0.89% increase [17]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - laying chicken chick price decreased by 0.4 to 2.60, a 13.33% decrease; the egg - to - feed ratio increased by 0.07 to 2.50, a 2.88% increase; the breeding profit increased by 4.71 to - 17.89, a 20.84% increase [17].

农产品早报 2025-09-18 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 大豆进口成本近期维持偏弱趋势，关注企稳后成本表现。国内豆粕市场提货持续处于高水平，预计现货 端 9 月可能进入去库，支撑油厂榨利。后市关注美豆自身格局向好、巴西种植季节交易能否边际改善当 前供大于求的格局，榨利端关注提货水平能否持续，豆粕以区间震荡操作为主，等待驱动选择方向。 油脂 【重要资讯】 1、据马来西亚独立检验机构，马来西亚 9 月 1-10 日棕榈油出口下降 1.2%-8.43%，前 15 日环增 2.6%。 SPPOMA 数据显示，2025 年 9 月 1-10 日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比上月同期减少 3.17%，前 15 日产量环 比减少 8.05%。 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-17 市场要闻与重要数据 现货成交清淡，豆粕窄幅震荡 粕类观点 策略 中性 风险 政策变化 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘玉米2511合约2166元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.05%；玉米淀粉2511合约2443元/吨，较 前日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，辽宁地区玉米现货价格2150元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差为 C11+134，较前日变动-9；吉林地区玉米淀粉现货价格2600元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差CS11+157，较前 日变动+0。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部出口检验周报显示，截至9月11日当周，美国玉米出口检验量151.17万吨，周环比增长 4.7%，同比增长165.7%。2025/26年度迄今，美国玉米出口检验量216.15万吨，同比增长105.7%，达到美国农业部 目标的2.86%。截至9月14日，美国玉米优良率67%，较上周下降1个百分点，目前玉米收割完成7%，略低于市场预 估的9%。 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3041元/吨，较前日变动-1元/吨，幅度-0.03%；菜粕2601合约2518元 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Palm Oil - Malaysian crude palm oil futures may gradually rebound and return to 4,500 ringgit, and then start an upward trend. Domestic palm oil futures will remain range - bound in the short term and may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil later, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. Soybean Oil - Analysts expect the NOPA members' soybean oil inventory in August 2025 to decrease by 5.8% compared to July. Domestic soybean oil has both long and short factors, with supply being sufficient and consumption increasing, and the basis quote fluctuating narrowly [1]. Corn - Short - term market supply and demand are loose, the futures market is oscillating weakly; in the medium term, it will remain weak, and short - selling should be cautious [2]. Sugar - The international raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar market has spot pressure, and the futures market may stabilize around 5,500 in the short term, but the rebound space is limited, and a high - selling strategy is recommended [6]. Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and after the new cotton is listed, prices will face pressure [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to rise to the annual high, but the high inventory and cold - storage eggs may suppress the increase. After the traders' replenishment next week, demand may weaken, and local egg prices may decline slightly [9]. Meal - The domestic meal market has a weak demand pattern, but cost support is strong. It is expected that the 01 contract will operate in the 3,050 - 3,150 range [11]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is currently weak, but the decline space is limited. Demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can absorb the supply is uncertain. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [13][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry Price Changes - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton; the futures price (Y2601) rose by 28 yuan to 8,076 yuan/ton, with a 0.72% increase; the basis (Y2601) decreased by 28 yuan to 534 yuan/ton, a 9.80% decline [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong remained at 9,320 yuan/ton; the futures price (P2601) rose by 112 yuan to 9,174 yuan/ton, a 1.24% increase; the basis (P2601) decreased by 112 yuan to 146 yuan/ton, a 43.41% decline [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,940 yuan/ton; the futures price (Ol601) rose by 15 yuan to 9,511 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the basis (Ol601) decreased by 115 yuan to 429 yuan/ton, a 21.14% decline [1]. Spread Changes - The soybean oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) decreased by 4 yuan to 300 yuan/ton, a 1.32% decline; the palm oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) rose by 14 yuan to 248 yuan/ton, a 5.98% increase; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) rose by 28 yuan to 380 yuan/ton, a 7.76% increase [1]. Corn Industry Price Changes - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 30 yuan to 2,167 yuan/ton, a 1.37% decline; the basis increased by 30 yuan to 143 yuan/ton, a 26.55% increase [2]. - The futures price of corn starch 2511 decreased by 31 yuan to 2,443 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline; the basis increased by 31 yuan to 117 yuan/ton, a 36.05% increase [2]. Sugar Industry Price Changes - The futures price of sugar 2601 rose by 9 yuan to 5,520 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the ICE raw sugar main contract rose by 0.15 cents to 15.96 cents/pound, a 0.95% increase [6]. Industry Data - The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory also increased. The sugar import volume increased by 160% [6]. Cotton Industry Price Changes - The futures price of cotton 2605 rose by 30 yuan to 13,850 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase; the ICE U.S. cotton main contract rose by 0.06 cents to 66.82 cents/pound, a 0.09% increase [7]. Industry Data - Commercial and industrial inventories decreased month - on - month, while imports increased by 66.7%. The textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [7]. Egg Industry Price Changes - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract rose by 103 yuan to 3,143 yuan/500KG, a 3.39% increase; the egg producer price rose by 0.12 yuan to 3.66 yuan/jin, a 3.45% increase [9]. Industry Data - The egg - to - feed ratio rose by 0.07 to 2.50, a 2.88% increase; the breeding profit increased by 4.71 yuan to - 17.89 yuan/feather, a 20.84% increase [9]. Meal Industry Price Changes - The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased by 20 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton, a 0.66% decline; the futures price (M2601) decreased by 37 yuan to 3,042 yuan/ton, a 1.20% decline [11]. - The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 50 yuan to 2,600 yuan/ton, a 1.89% decline; the futures price (RM2601) decreased by 27 yuan to 2,504 yuan/ton, a 1.07% decline [11]. Spread Changes - The oil - to - meal ratio of the main contract rose by 0.05 to 2.75, a 1.87% increase; the soybean - to - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market rose by 30 yuan to 430 yuan/ton, a 7.50% increase [11]. Pig Industry Price Changes - The futures price of the pig 2511 contract rose by 20 yuan to 13,275 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase; the Henan spot price decreased by 150 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton [13]. Industry Data - The sample slaughter volume decreased by 590 to 148,082; the self - breeding profit decreased by 35.8 yuan to 17 yuan/head, a 68.02% decline [13].

农产品早报 2025-09-16 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 蛋白粕 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一美豆小幅下跌，中美谈判正在西班牙进行，大豆进口尚未有定论，需求担忧压制美豆。周一国内豆 粕现货下跌 20 元/吨，华东基差 01-110 持平，国内豆粕成交尚可，提货处于高位。上周下游库存天数上 升 0.42 天至 9.22 天，据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 236 万吨，本周预计压榨 238 万吨，上周国内 大豆、豆粕库存环比几乎持平，同比处于近年同期高位。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨量正常，8 月因干旱大豆优良率下滑，但 USDA 仅下调 0.1 蒲式耳/英亩单产，且 收割面积上调 20 万英亩。巴西方面，升贴水回落后震荡反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures saw a majority of contracts rise, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural commodities market [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Raw sugar futures increased by 1.08%, closing at 15.96 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures rose by 2.50%, reaching $7425.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures surged by 5.01%, ending at 416.75 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures experienced a slight decline of 0.01%, closing at 66.82 cents per pound [1]