Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a significant increase in agricultural futures, with all major contracts closing higher on December 22, indicating a positive trend in the agricultural commodities market [1] Group 1: Soybean Futures - Soybean futures rose by 0.42%, closing at 1064.00 cents per bushel, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Corn Futures - Corn futures increased by 0.68%, ending at 446.75 cents per bushel, suggesting strong demand or supply constraints [1] Group 3: Wheat Futures - Wheat futures experienced a rise of 1.08%, closing at 515.25 cents per bushel, indicating potential upward pressure on prices [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given reports Group 2: Core Views of the Reports 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Trump's blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers may increase palm oil's attractiveness as a biofuel raw material. However, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in the first half of December, and BMD palm oil is likely to fluctuate. In China, palm oil lacks price - advantage in winter, and its basis has limited fluctuation space [1] - Soybean oil: US soybean exports to China are slower than expected, and South American soybeans may have a good harvest. CBOT soybeans are expected to fluctuate slightly. In China, the supply of soybean oil is sufficient, but the inventory may decrease due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, and the decline of the spot basis is limited [1] - Rapeseed oil: Domestic rapeseed prices are stable, but inventory in some areas is limited. The futures price has limited room for further decline, and the spot price and basis fluctuate slightly [1] 2. Apples - The current inventory depletion is slow, and the overall sales are weaker than last year. The price of farmers' apples is under pressure. The short - term market will trade the game between the "real shortage of high - quality delivery products" and the "overall inventory pressure" [6] 3. Red Dates - The support from spot sales and cost is weak. The futures price is weak, and the basis is strengthening. The overall market supply is relatively loose, and the 01 contract's entry into the delivery month has released some pressure. The future trend depends on market consumption [7] 4. Corn and Corn Starch - In the northeast, the bullish sentiment is shaken, and traders sell at high prices. In North China, the sales volume fluctuates with price. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises' inventory is increasing, while feed enterprises are mainly on the sidelines. The corn market is likely to be weak in the short term, but the decline space is limited [8] 5. Pigs - The spot price is stable, and the demand for curing meat around the Winter Solstice is increasing. The slaughter cycle of farmers is longer this year due to the late Spring Festival, and the market is slightly stronger. The 03 contract has limited upside but is supported at around 11,000 [12] 6. Meal Products - The price of US soybeans is weak. Brazilian soybeans will be listed soon, posing a competitive threat. The domestic soybean meal market is loose, and the 1 - 5 spread is difficult to rise further. The soybean meal price has limited downside but lacks upward momentum [16] 7. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production is in the late stage, which may support prices. Indian sugar production is abundant, restricting the rebound of raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar market is expected to be weak and volatile, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [18] 8. Cotton - Internationally, US cotton sales are weak in late November. The weather in the main producing areas is dry, and the quality index is rising. Domestically, the supply pressure is gradually released, and the demand from spinning enterprises is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly but has limited upward momentum [19] 9. Eggs - The number of old hens and newly - laid hens is decreasing, but the supply of small - sized eggs is tight, and large - sized eggs are sufficient. The demand from food processing and catering industries is weak. The market is in a "supply - strong - demand - weak" pattern and is expected to be weak and volatile [21] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On December 19, compared with December 18, the prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in the spot and futures markets all decreased to varying degrees [1] - **Inventory and Basis**: Palm oil inventory decreased last weekend and was lower than the five - year average. The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all changed to some extent [1] 2. Apples - **Futures and Spot Data**: The price of the apple 2605 contract increased, and the basis decreased. The arrival volume in some fruit markets decreased, and the national cold - storage inventory also decreased slightly [3] - **Regional Inventory**: The cold - storage inventory in six major apple - producing areas is provided, with Shandong having the largest inventory. The current inventory depletion is slow [6] 3. Red Dates - **Futures and Spot Data**: The prices of red date futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis of some grades changed. The inventory in Cangzhou showed different changes in warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [7] 4. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of the corn 2603 contract increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The import profit increased, and the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased [8] - **Corn Starch**: The price of the corn starch 2603 contract decreased slightly, and the basis increased slightly. The spread between starch and corn decreased [8] 5. Pigs - **Futures Data**: The price of the pig 2605 contract increased, and the basis decreased. The spread between the 3 - 5 contracts decreased [12] - **Spot Data**: The spot prices in some regions decreased, the daily slaughter volume increased, and the breeding profit increased [12] 6. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price of soybean meal remained unchanged, and the futures price decreased slightly. The basis increased, and the Brazilian import crushing profit increased [16] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot and futures prices of rapeseed meal decreased, and the basis decreased. The Canadian import crushing profit decreased [16] - **Soybeans**: The prices of domestic and imported soybeans changed slightly, and the basis and warehouse receipts also changed [16] 7. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Data**: The prices of domestic sugar futures contracts decreased, and the ICE raw sugar price increased. The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis changed [18] - **Industry Data**: The production and sales of sugar in China and Guangxi decreased year - on - year, and the import volume increased [18] 8. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Data**: The prices of cotton futures contracts increased, and the basis decreased. The ICE US cotton price increased slightly [19] - **Industry Data**: The inventory in Xinjiang and the import volume increased, and the export volume of textile products increased [19] 9. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Data**: The price of the egg 01 contract increased, and the 02 contract decreased. The spot price of eggs increased slightly, and the basis increased [21] - **Related Indexes**: The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings remained unchanged, and the breeding profit decreased [21]

1. Report Industry and Date - The report focuses on the agricultural products industry, dated December 19, 2025 [1] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers include Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, and Youran Liu, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3][4] 3. Fats and Oils 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the three major fats and oils fell significantly, with rapeseed oil having the largest decline. The 2025/26 global rapeseed supply - demand situation is characterized by record - high production, shrinking trade, and rising inventories. USDA raised the 2025/26 global rapeseed production by 3 million tons to 95.27 million tons, an 11% increase from the previous year. Due to China's policies, Canadian rapeseed exports have plummeted, and domestic rapeseed oil has a strong basis in the long - term but a bearish fundamental outlook [8]. - Palm oil production in the producing areas has been good this year. In the first quarter of 2026, production will slow down, and it faces de - stocking pressure. High - frequency data shows a 15.9% - 16.4% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first half of December. Higher - than - expected palm oil inventories will suppress prices [9]. - Soybean oil futures are also falling, mainly depending on the cost of imported soybeans. With rising US inventories and expected high yields in Brazil, CBOT soybean prices will be under pressure. The current high volume of imported soybeans in China restricts the upside space of soybean oil [9]. - The fats and oils market is expected to continue to bottom out. Wait for the bottom pattern to appear before deploying long positions, and be cautious about the rebound amplitude [10]. 3.2 Core Points 3.2.1 Domestic Spot Changes - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Grade 1 soybean oil in East China was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan weekly, and the basis fell 60 yuan; Grade 3 rapeseed oil in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan weekly, and the basis fell 100 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in South China was 8,250 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan weekly, and the basis remained unchanged [11]. 3.2.2 Domestic Inventories of the Three Major Fats and Oils - As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.3113 million tons, a weekly decrease of 118,100 tons, a 4.86% month - on - month decrease, and an 8.45% year - on - year increase. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3432 million tons, down 58,400 tons weekly; edible palm oil inventory was 584,200 tons, down 38,000 tons weekly; rapeseed oil inventory was 383,900 tons, down 21,700 tons weekly [19]. 3.2.3 Domestic Supply of Fats, Oils, and Oilseeds - As of the end of the 50th week, the soybean crushing rate of major domestic soybean oil mills increased slightly from last week, with an average crushing rate of 58.32%. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 2.155 million tons. As of the end of December, the cumulative soybean crushing volume was 3.995 million tons [21]. - The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports is about 8.3852 million tons. The estimated arrival volume in December is about 9.484 million tons [22][23]. - As of the end of the 50th week, the crushing rate of imported rapeseed in major domestic oil mills was almost at a standstill. As of the end of December, the cumulative rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons. The inventory of imported rapeseed at domestic ports is about 60,000 tons [28]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil Dynamics - From December 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month. In November, China's palm oil imports reached 330,000 tons, the highest this year. In January, Malaysia's crude palm oil export tax is set at 9.5%. In December, Indonesia's crude palm oil reference price is expected to be $926.14 per ton, and the export tax is reduced to $74 per ton [30][31]. 3.2.5 CFTC Positions - In the first week of December, speculative funds increased their net long positions in Chicago soybeans and reduced their net short positions in Chicago soybean oil [47] 4. Corn 4.1 Market Review - In the spot market, corn prices decreased slightly this week. In the futures market, as of December 18, the Dalian main contract 2603 closed at 2,190 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from last week, a 2.06% decline [49]. 4.2 Fundamental Analysis 4.2.1 Corn Supply - This week, the pace of grain sales slowed down. As of now, the grain sales progress is 40%, generally faster than the same period last year. As of December 12, the inventory at northern ports was 1.81 million tons, and at southern ports was 453,000 tons [51][52]. 4.2.2 Domestic Substitutes - This week, wheat prices adjusted weakly. The cost is supported in the short term, but the demand is weak. As of December 18, the national average corn price was 2,304 yuan/ton, and the wheat average price was 2,514 yuan/ton [54]. 4.2.3 Imported Substitute Grains - In November, China imported 10.93 million tons of grain, a 15.3% year - on - year increase. The import of corn, sorghum, and wheat rebounded. The import advantage of other grains has increased, and future imports may increase [55][65]. 4.2.4 Feed Demand - In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 2.7% year - on - year increase. As of December 18, the average inventory days of national sample feed enterprises was 29.98 days [66][72]. 4.2.5 Deep - processing Demand - This week, the operating rate of the corn starch industry fluctuated little. As of December 18, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 3.24 million tons, a 10.20% increase from last week [74][75]. 4.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The 2025/26 forecast for Chinese corn remains the same as last month. The planting area is expected to be 44,873 thousand hectares, with a total output of 300 million tons. The consumption is expected to be 299.02 million tons, and the import volume remains at 6 million tons [81] 4.3 Outlook - In the spot market, prices may fluctuate. In the futures market, the 2601/03 contracts are under supply pressure, and prices may fluctuate. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish stocks appropriately, and futures investors hold long positions [83][84][85] 5. Live Pigs 5.1 Market Review - In the spot market, live pig prices fluctuated upward this week, with an average price of 11.53 yuan/kg, a 2.31% week - on - week increase. In the futures market, as of Thursday, the main contract LH2603 closed at 11,325 yuan/ton, a 0.94% increase from last Thursday [87][88] 5.2 Fundamental Overview 5.2.1 Long - term Supply: Breeding Sows Inventory - As of November, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms increased slightly month - on - month. Overall, live pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year [98][99] 5.2.2 Medium - term Supply: Piglet Inventory - This week, the average price of 15 - kg piglets was 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week. As of November, the inventory of small pigs in sample enterprises decreased slightly month - on - month [108][109] 5.2.3 Short - term Supply: Large Pigs Inventory, Hogging, and Reraising - As of November, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises decreased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased in November. In December, live pig slaughter is expected to increase month - on - month, and decrease in January next year [112][113] 5.2.4 Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Slaughter Weight - In November, the actual slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, and the planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads. This week, the average slaughter weight was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg week - on - week [118][119] 5.2.5 Import Supply: Pork Imports - In October, China imported 60,000 tons of pork. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 920,000 tons, a 6.1% year - on - year decrease [124] 5.2.6 Reraising Demand - In early December, the enthusiasm for reraising was average. The price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs increased slightly this week, and the reraising cost also increased [127] 5.2.7 Slaughter Demand - This week, the slaughter enterprise operating rate was 39.87%, up 1.33 percentage points from last week. From January to October 2025, the total slaughter volume was 322.88 million heads, a 22.21% year - on - year increase [130] 5.3 Outlook - In the spot market, supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are oscillating strongly. In the futures market, it is recommended that investors wait and see, and breeding enterprises reduce hedging short positions as they slaughter [131][133] 6. Soybean Meal 6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - In the spot market, as of December 19, the coastal soybean meal price was between 3,060 - 3,140 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the outer - market CBOT soybean price may test the support at 1050 cents. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the outer - market in the short term, and it is not advisable for long - position investors to bottom - fish [135][136][137] 6.2 Core Points 6.2.1 Soybean Planting - According to the USDA December report, the new - season US soybean planting area is about 81.1 million acres, and the yield per unit is 53.0 bushels. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's is expected to be 48.5 million tons. As of December 13, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 94.1%, and as of December 11, Argentina's was 58% [138][139] 6.2.2 US Soybean Exports - As of the week of November 27, the US 2025/2026 soybean export shipment volume was about 804,000 tons, and the net sales volume was 1.106 million tons. The cumulative sales volume was 21.829 million tons, a 39.4% year - on - year decrease [145] 6.2.3 Domestic Soybean Imports and Crushing - As of December 18, the gross profit of importing and crushing US Gulf soybeans in January was - 465 yuan/ton. As of the week of December 12, the actual operating rate of 111 oil mills was 57.18%. In November, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans. It is expected that the port soybean inventory will gradually decrease [154][155][157] 6.2.4 Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory - As of December 12, the domestic main oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 999,900 tons, a 5.2% month - on - month decrease and a 76% year - on - year increase [161] 6.2.5 Basis and Inter - month Spread - As of December 19, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract was about 94.14, and the 1 - 5 spread was 308. The 1 - 5 spread or the 3 - 5 spread may be stable and slightly stronger in the future [166] 6.2.6 Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts - As of December 18, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were 23,830 lots, at a historically high level for the same period [170] 7. Eggs 7.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the egg spot price stabilized at a low level and then rose slightly. In the futures market, the near - month contracts oscillated at a low level, and the far - month contracts declined. It is recommended that long - position investors wait for the far - month contracts to adjust fully before entering the market [172] 7.2 Data Summary 7.2.1 Inventory and Replenishment - As of the end of November 2025, the national in - production laying hens inventory was about 1.352 billion. In November, the sample enterprises' egg - chicken chick output was about 39.55 million, a 13.5% decrease from the same period last year [173] 7.2.2 Cost, Revenue, and Breeding Profit - As of December 18, the average price of large - sized pink - shell eggs was 2.98 yuan/jin, and the brown - shell eggs were 3.04 yuan/jin. The feed cost was 3.22 yuan/kg, the chick price was 2.68 yuan/chick, and the breeding profit was about - 0.17 yuan/jin [178][179] 7.2.3 Culled Hens - Recently, the culling volume has decreased, the culling age has accelerated, and the culled hen price is at a low level for the same period [181] 7.2.4 Demand, Inventory, and Live Pig Price - As of December 18, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,023 tons, and the inventory in the circulation and production links was relatively high. The live pig price was 5.85 yuan/jin [189] 8. Sugar 8.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the raw sugar index fell back to test the 14 - cent mark, and the Zhengzhou sugar index continued to decline. It is expected that the 5000 - yuan mark may be the short - term bottom [196][197] 8.2 Data Overview - In the 2025/26 sugar - pressing season as of December 1, the cumulative sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region was 39.904 million tons, a 1.13% year - on - year increase. The ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil's central - southern region is 16.43 cents/pound, higher than the ICE raw sugar price. The import processing profit of raw sugar declined this week [204][205][209]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed market is affected by international factors, with domestic rapeseed products following the downward trend of international rapeseed. The short - term outlook for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is weak, but there are also some supporting factors in the domestic market [7][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures continued to decline, with the 05 - contract closing at 8,744 yuan/ton, a decrease of 603 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The AAFC raised Canada's rapeseed ending stocks for the 2025/26 season, easing the supply - demand situation and dragging down prices. Other factors include the EPA's pending biofuel blending mandates, the decline in Malaysian palm oil exports, and the drop in crude oil prices. Domestically, the supply of imported rapeseed is tightening, and oil mills are mostly shut down, leading to inventory reduction. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and potential Canadian imports may increase future supply. With ample soybean oil supply, rapeseed oil demand remains limited. The short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower, with the 05 - contract closing at 2,323 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: During the US soybean export season, supply is abundant, and Brazil's high - yield forecast intensifies competition. China's procurement has slowed down, causing the US soybean futures price to fall. Domestically, near - term imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, tightening supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and potential Canadian imports may increase future supply. With the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, rapeseed meal demand is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures declined significantly this week, with a total open interest of 208,179 lots, an increase of 37,152 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower, with a total open interest of 598,488 lots, an increase of 16,820 lots from last week [14]. - The net position of the top 20 traders in rapeseed oil futures was - 27,499 this week, compared to - 2,529 last week, indicating a significant increase in net short positions. The net position of the top 20 traders in rapeseed meal futures was - 74,459 this week, compared to - 70,504 last week, also showing a significant increase in net short positions [20]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,926 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 0 lots [27]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,230 yuan/ton, a significant decline from last week. The basis between the active rapeseed oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 486 yuan/ton [33]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,400 yuan/ton, a slight decline from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active rapeseed meal contract was + 77 yuan/ton [39]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was - 2 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 59 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [45]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 05 - contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.764, and the average spot price ratio was 3.85 [48]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils - The 05 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,032 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly this week. The 05 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 452 yuan/ton, also narrowing slightly this week [58]. Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The 05 - contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 412 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 700 yuan/ton [64]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 150,000, 450,000, and 420,000 tons respectively [68]. - The spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,189 yuan/ton as of December 18. As of the 50th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%. China's rapeseed imports in October 2025 were 0 tons [72][76][80]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed oil inventory was 384,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.34%. China's rapeseed oil imports in November 2025 were 170,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the same period last year and an increase of 30,000 tons from last month [84]. - **Demand - Side**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427,600 tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of catering services were 605.7 billion yuan. As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the weekly contract volume of domestic imported rapeseed oil was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [88][92]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week. China's rapeseed meal imports in October 2025 were 220,600 tons, a decrease of 85,700 tons from the same period last year and an increase of 63,000 tons from last month [96][100]. - **Demand - Side**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,977,900 tons [104]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of December 19, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 16.49%, a decrease of 0.71% from last week, at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [108].

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四，玉米期价延续调整，近月 2603 合约领跌。东北玉米现货价格维持稳定， 15 | 震荡下行 | | | 市场购销活跃度稍显一般，进口玉米，明日继续在产地辽宁邀约拍卖，数量 | | | | 万吨，对市场有一定的调控。华北地区深加工玉米价格有涨有跌。其中山东深加 | | | | 工上涨企业较多，河北深加工企业根据情况价格有涨有跌，河南企业价格保持稳 | | | 玉米 | 定。农户售粮节奏保持平稳，下游企业采购以刚需为主，对高价玉米接受度一般。 | | | | 销区市场玉米价格窄幅调整，部分港口贸易商报价继续下调。目前下游饲料企业 | | | | 新签单较少，多执行前期订单，港口到货量一般，市场整体购销氛围不显积极。 | | | | 技术上，玉米远期 5、7 月合约周线受制于长期均线压制，期价震荡调整，玉米 | | | | 市场供应压力后移，远期报价持续承压。 | | | | 周四，CBOT 大豆连跌 5 日，受累于多头抛售及需求担忧。美国农业部周四确认 向未知地销售 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3]. - The investment rating for the egg industry is also cautiously bearish [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the pig market, the demand is boosted by the Winter Solstice stocking and the reluctance of farmers to sell, causing the pig price to maintain an upward trend. However, after the festival, the supply pressure may be released, which will restrict the pig price [2]. - For the egg market, although the festival stocking has accelerated the market turnover, the egg price remains in a low - level shock pattern due to the off - season consumption. The slow decline in inventory pressure on the supply side also restricts the egg price [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2603 contract was 11,325 yuan/ton, a change of - 110.00 yuan/ton or - 0.96% from the previous trading day [1]. - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.80 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.01 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.15 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.25 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.25 yuan/kg, with no change. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 17.51 yuan/kg, up 0.5% from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The demand is boosted by the Winter Solstice stocking and farmers' reluctance to sell, and the supply is slightly tight in some northern areas, so the pig price keeps rising. The demand increase is mainly in East China, Shandong, and Henan. The pickling demand in Southwest China has also increased, while that in South China is relatively weak. After the festival, the supply pressure may be released and restrict the pig price [2]. Strategy - The strategy for the pig market is to be cautiously bearish [3]. Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2601 contract was 2,916 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 176.00 yuan or - 5.69% from the previous trading day [3]. - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin, with no change; in Shandong, it was 3.10 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 2.80 yuan/jin, with no change. On December 18, 2025, the production - link inventory was 0.94 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, both unchanged from the previous day [3][4]. Market Analysis - The festival stocking has accelerated the market turnover, but since it is the off - season for egg consumption, the support of festival purchases from catering and households for the egg price is unsustainable. The slow decline in inventory pressure on the supply side restricts the egg price [5]. Strategy - The strategy for the egg market is to be cautiously bearish [6].

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 12 月 18 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/12/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2216 | -7 | -0.32% | 137,230 | -39.05% | 317,591 | -15.36% | | C2605 | | 2226 | -13 | -0.58% | 113,549 | 12.66% | 453,330 | 0.21% | | C2509 | | 2253 | -12 | -0.53% | 8,307 | 62.91% | 37,645 | 3.96% | | CS2601 | | 2499 | -13 | -0.52% | 107,745 | 48.81% | 104,235 | -19.56% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector is generally weak. Soybean meal and live pigs have declined, and the prices of some varieties are expected to continue their downward trends or remain volatile at low levels, while cotton shows an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - The soybean sector is weak. Soybean meal prices have fallen to new lows due to sufficient imported soybeans, high crushing volumes, and high inventory, and the downward trend may continue. Live pig prices have dropped. With high inventory, there is a risk of concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. Although demand has increased, the supply still exceeds demand, and prices are expected to remain volatile at low levels [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal continues to decline, affected by the fall of US soybeans, sufficient domestic soybean supply, and high - inventory pressure. From January to November this year, China's imported soybean volume reached 103.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to look for resistance levels to place light short positions [2]. 3.2.2 Rapeseed Oil - The main 2605 contract of rapeseed oil continues to decline, pressured by the expectation of improved supply. Australian rapeseed is about to enter the crushing process after arrival, and there are rumors that COFCO is inquiring about distant - month Canadian rapeseed. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [3]. 3.2.3 Live Pigs - The main 2603 contract of live pigs reverses and declines, returning to the low - level range. High inventory, high selling willingness of farmers, and the risk of concentrated supply at the end of the year, along with substitute products diverting some consumption, lead to the decline. The strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading [6]. 3.2.4 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continues to decline, affected by the seasonal supply pressure of new sugar. Overseas, the production of major sugar - producing countries is expected to increase. Domestically, the southern sugarcane crushing is in full swing. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [9]. 3.2.5 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton fluctuates upward and remains at a high level, supported by demand. From January to November this year, cotton imports decreased by 64% year - on - year. The sales rate has increased significantly, and downstream consumption is strong. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to place long positions on dips [12]. 3.2.6 Eggs - The main 2602 contract of eggs continues to decline, pressured by sufficient supply. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light short positions [13][15].

生猪 周三，生猪近月 2603 合约领涨，远期合约报价跟涨，在猪病和政策去产能的双 向因素影响下，生猪期价企稳上行。黑龙江市场生猪主流成交价格 10.99 元/公斤， 较昨日价格上涨 0.02 元/公斤；吉林市场主流成交价格 11.01 元/公斤，较昨日价 格上涨 0.04 元/公斤；辽宁地区生猪出栏主流价格 11.14 元/公斤，较昨日价格上 涨 0.02 元/公斤；内蒙古市场主流成交价格为 11 元/公斤，较昨日价格上涨 0.06 元/公斤。现东北地区中大猪价格相对坚挺，今日中大猪价格低价 11.0 元/公斤， 高价 11.8 元/公斤，标肥价差小幅走缩。技术上，继续关注生猪 3 月合约上行表 现，远期在猪病和政策去库存的利多因素下，价格表现偏强。 震荡上涨 二、市场信息 1. 据船运调查机构 SGS 公布数据显示，预计马来西亚 12 月 1-15 日棕榈油出口量为 435882 吨，较上月同 期出口的 334295 吨增加 30.39%。 2. 12 月 16 日国家粮食交易中心计划拍卖 51.39 万吨，生产年限为 2022 年至 2024 年，分布在辽宁、天津、 河北、安徽、浙江、山东、湖南，交货日 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-18 临近冬至备货支撑猪价上行 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11435元/吨，较前交易日变动+85.00元/吨，幅度+0.75%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.81元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.21元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+375，较前交易日变动+125；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 11.90元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH03+465，较前交易日变动+25；四 川地区外三元生猪价格12.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+815，较前交易日变动-85。 据农业农村部监测，12月17日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.61，比昨天下降0.11个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为133.54，比昨天下降0.12个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.43元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；牛肉65.97 元/公斤，与昨天持平；羊肉62.92元/公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；鸡蛋7.42元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；白条鸡17.82元/ 公斤，比昨天上升0.7%。 市场分析 节前备 ...