Group 1 - Goldman Sachs significantly lowered the US Q1 GDP growth forecast to -0.8% due to an unexpected widening of the trade deficit in March, driven by increased consumer goods imports [1] - Morgan Stanley highlighted that uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may lead foreign investors to reduce their investments in the US [2] - Pantheon Macroeconomics indicated that the uncertainty from tariffs will limit any significant rebound in the French economy, projecting stagnation for the remainder of the year [3] Group 2 - ING reported that the euro has lost its status as a preferred alternative to the dollar, with most G10 currencies performing better than the euro recently [4] - ING also noted that news of potential reductions in auto tariffs by the Trump administration helped the dollar recover some of its recent losses [5] - Capital Economics stated that the impact of tariffs on the Eurozone economy is expected to intensify, with the economic sentiment index dropping from 95.2 to 93.6 in April [6] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank suggested that the European Central Bank should act more decisively to address increasing supply shocks and rising inflation [8] - Tianfeng Securities projected that the aerospace engine sector may stabilize and recover, with a significant portion of military electronic stocks held by active funds [9] - CITIC Securities reported that the implementation of new tax refund policies for departing travelers could boost domestic consumption, estimating a potential market space of nearly 100 billion [10]

Group 1 - Jiuzhou Group (300040.SZ) released its 2024 annual report on April 24, 2025, with 17 institutional investors disclosing holdings of 16.7814 million A-shares, accounting for 2.78% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors include Shanghai Muxin Private Fund Management Co., Ltd., Harbin Jiuzhou Group Co., Ltd. repurchase special securities account, MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC., Goldman Sachs International, BARCLAYS BANK PLC, and several ETFs, with a combined holding ratio of 2.78%, which decreased by 1.33 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] - In the public fund sector, 12 new public funds were disclosed this period compared to the previous quarter, including South China CSI 2000 ETF, Ping An CSI 2000 Enhanced Strategy ETF, and others [1] Group 2 - In terms of foreign investment, three new foreign institutions were disclosed this period, including MORGAN STANLEY & CO. INTERNATIONAL PLC., Goldman Sachs International, and BARCLAYS BANK PLC, while UBS AG was not disclosed this period [2]

废话不多说 ， 直接上数据 。 1- 创业热情没了 。 上图统计了每年新成立的公司数量 。 我们可以看到 ， 在2014~18年间 ， 每年新成立的公司数量呈井喷增长之势 。 在2018年 ， 全国新成立了5万多家新公 司 。 刨去双休日 ， 平均每天有200家初创公司诞生 。 然而在2018年以后 ， 新成立公司逐年递减 。 2024年前8个月 ， 全国新成立的公司数量仅为260家 ， 平均每个月32家 ， 也就是差不多 每个省每个月才成立 1家新公司 。上图显示符合一些投资标准的初创公司数量。 而最近的2024年前8个月 ， 两者加起来的融资额仅为60亿美元左右 ， 还 不如2017年一个月的融资额 。 VC投资 ， 是一个生态圈 ， 需要有想法和野心的创业者 ， 需要支持创业想法的投资者 ， 也需要整个大环境的支持 。 上面两组数据可以看出 ， 我们现在 面临的情况是 ： 没人想创业 ， 没人想投创业 。 2 - 国企不断壮大 。 上图统计了中国100家市值最大的上市公司 ， 按所有权划分的不同比重 。 我们可以看到 ， 在2010年时 ， 中国绝大部分市值最大的公司 ， 都是国企 （ 占 到80%左右 ...