美国1月失业率 4.3%，预期 4.4%，前值 4.4%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Core Insights - The upcoming jobs data release is expected to provide significant insights into the current state of the labor market, which will have major implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategies [1] Labor Market Implications - The labor market's performance, as indicated by the jobs data, is crucial for understanding economic conditions and guiding monetary policy decisions [1]

Core Insights - The primary focus of the market is on the January non-farm payroll report and the upcoming revision of the non-farm employment benchmark by the U.S. Department of Labor [1] - The analyst suggests that the market's high attention to the benchmark revision is unnecessary, as it pertains to past data [1] - The current state of the labor market and its trajectory over the next 6 to 12 months are deemed more significant [1] Labor Market Analysis - The unemployment rate is highlighted as the most crucial data point, with its actual figure potentially being higher or lower than reported [1] - The Federal Reserve estimates that the U.S. needs to add between 30,000 to 50,000 jobs monthly to maintain a stable unemployment rate, given the reduction in labor supply [1]

今日看点 2月11日重点关注的财经要闻与资本市场大事： 1、1月CPI、PPI数据将公布 2月11日，国家统计局将公布2026年1月份CPI（居民消费价格指数）和PPI（工业生产者出厂价格指数）数据。 2、国新办将举行新闻发布会 介绍2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动、保障春节市场供应有关情况 2月11日上午10时，国新办将举行新闻发布会，商务部副部长盛秋平和文化和旅游部、金融监管总局、广电总局、体育总局有关负责人介绍2026"乐购新 春"春节特别活动、保障春节市场供应有关情况，并答记者问。 4、124.51亿元市值限售股今日解禁 2月11日，共有7家公司限售股解禁，合计解禁量为7.3亿股，按最新收盘价计算，合计解禁市值为124.51亿元。 从解禁量来看，海联讯、青松建化、麦澜德解禁量居前，解禁股数分别为4.26亿股、2.26亿股、6317.32万股。从解禁市值来看，海联讯、麦澜德、青松建化 解禁市值居前，解禁市值分别为76.96亿元、28.18亿元、10.3亿元。 5、11家公司披露回购进展 2月11日，11家公司共发布11个股票回购相关进展。其中，2家公司首次披露股票回购预案，1家公司回购方案获股东大会通过 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，2月11日最新披露数据显示，韩国1月调整后失业率降低至3%，预期3.1%。 ...

Economic Data and Events - The US manufacturing and services PMI, as well as consumer confidence, exceeded expectations, while employment data was significantly weaker than anticipated [2][14] - In the Eurozone, January manufacturing PMI showed a greater rebound than the initial value, but services PMI and retail sales fell short of expectations; inflation met expectations and remained stable compared to the previous value [2][14] - Japan's manufacturing and services PMI both improved in January [2][14] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key focus on the US non-farm payroll report for January to be released on February 11 and the US CPI data for January to be released on February 13 [3][16] Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 2.13% for the week ending January 31, down from 2.49% the previous week [4][18] - Germany's economic activity index returned to positive territory, with the WAI index at 0.1% for the week ending February 1, compared to -0.01% the previous week [5][18] Demand - US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth rate showed fluctuations, with a reading of 6.7% for the week ending January 30, down from 7.1% the previous week [6][21] - The US mortgage rate stabilized, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.11% on February 5, slightly up from 6.10% the previous week; mortgage applications fell, with the MBA market composite index at 330.8, down 8.9% week-on-week [6][24] Employment - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000 for the week ending January 31, up from 209,000 the previous week; continuing claims increased from 1.819 million to 1.844 million for the week ending January 24 [7][27] - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed job vacancy index at 103.9 as of January 30, slightly lower than the December average of 104.2 [8][29] Prices - Commodity prices experienced a significant pullback, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 3.3% week-on-week as of February 6 [9][34] - US gasoline prices stabilized at $2.75 per gallon for the week ending February 2, showing no change from the previous week [9][36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe showed signs of recovery, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.755 on February 6, up from 0.539 the previous day [10][39] - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with narrow fluctuations in swap basis [11][41] - High-yield dollar bond spreads widened but showed signs of recent recovery, with the spread-to-worst for JPMorgan's global BB-B rated dollar bonds at 256.3 basis points [11][43] - The yield spread between US and Japanese bonds narrowed, while the spread between Italian and German bonds widened [11][46] Fiscal Data - As of February 5, cumulative federal funding expenditures in the US increased by 3.8% year-on-year, totaling approximately $784.5 billion [12][49][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - This week (2026.2.2 - 2026.2.6), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 dropped from 1.81% last Friday to 1.802% this Friday, a decrease of 0.8bp. The bond market oscillated within a very narrow range, with 1.8% becoming the invisible lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield. It is recommended to add duration cautiously to avoid the disturbances brought by the recovery of production demand after the Spring Festival and the goals of the Two Sessions in March [1][9][14]. - The significant fluctuations of overseas assets in the early stage have been repaired this week. The market's divergence is significantly increasing, and the previous structured market is undergoing "destructuring". It is expected that at least in the first half of 2026, the technology growth will maintain its momentum. The subsequent interest rate path is still dominated by fundamental data [15]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US fluctuates in the short - term, and the number of continued claims declines. The unemployment rate steadily rises, and the labor participation rate fluctuates weakly, indicating the structural pressure in the employment market. The year - on - year increases of the US CPI and core CPI continue to narrow, and the inflation pressure is further alleviated. The Fed has pressed the "pause button" on interest rate cuts, and the global monetary policy shows significant "diversification" characteristics [16][18][19]. Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week Views - **Analysis of the Bond Market's Narrow - Range Oscillation**: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 decreased. The bond market oscillated in a narrow range. The central bank's net purchase of Treasury bonds in the open - market in January 2026 was 100 billion yuan, the highest since the resumption of Treasury bond trading last October, but more restrained compared with 2024. The reasons are that it can supplement the liquidity gap at the beginning of the year and reduce the bank's liability cost, and the central bank tends to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity [1][9][14]. - **Analysis of the Future Trend of US Treasury Yields**: Overseas asset fluctuations have been repaired. The technology growth is expected to maintain its momentum in the first half of 2026. The Fed's policy signal has turned dovish this week, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. The subsequent interest rate path depends on fundamental data [15]. - **Analysis of US Economic Data**: The US labor market has a "low - hiring, low - firing" pattern, and the employment market has structural pressure. The inflation pressure in the US is further alleviated, and the manufacturing shipment volume and inventory total expand synchronously. The Fed has paused interest rate cuts, and the global monetary policy shows "diversification" [16][18][19]. 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From 2026/2/2 to 2026/2/6, the total net investment in the open - market was - 756 billion yuan, indicating a net withdrawal of funds [29]. - **Interest Rate Comparison**: The money - market interest rates, including R, DR, and SHIBOR, showed different degrees of decline this week compared with last week [34]. 2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity Price Changes**: Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices have all declined. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal, vegetable price indices, RJ/CRB commodity price indices, and South China industrial product price indices have shown different trends [52]. - **Stock and Bond Market Performance**: The VIX panic index led the increase, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai Stock Index led the decline. The short - end and long - end of the US Treasury yield curve have both risen [62][68][71]. 3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: This week, 90 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 579.673 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 300 million yuan, and a net financing amount of 579.373 billion yuan, mainly invested in the comprehensive field [81]. - **Regional Issuance**: 15 provinces and cities issued local government bonds, and the top five in terms of total issuance amount were Jiangxi, Guangdong, Henan, Jiangsu, and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. 11 provinces and cities issued local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts, and the top five in terms of total issuance amount were Jiangsu, Henan, Jiangxi, the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and Chongqing [85][89]. - **Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds**: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 3.6 billion yuan, all from Anhui Province. Since November 15, 2024, the total early redemption scale of national urban investment bonds has been 121.007 billion yuan, with Chongqing having the highest redemption scale [91][95]. 3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The stock of local government bonds this week was 55.89 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 437.52 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.78%. The top three provinces with active local government bond trading were Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong. The top three trading - active terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [99]. - **Yield Changes**: The maturity yields of local government bonds showed a differentiated trend this week [102]. 3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month The issuance plans of local government bonds in some provinces and cities such as Zhejiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hunan, Hebei, Guangdong, and Beijing from February 9 to February 11, 2026, are presented [106]. 4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Overall Issuance**: This week, 440 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 358.206 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 102.182 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 256.024 billion yuan, an increase of 100.335 billion yuan compared with last week [107]. - **By Bond Type**: Urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of 57.856 billion yuan, and industrial bonds had a net financing amount of 198.167 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing amount of 35.325 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing amount of 88.497 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing amount of - 2.186 billion yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing amount of 124.115 billion yuan, and private placement notes had a net financing amount of 10.273 billion yuan [108][114]. 4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds increased by 6.61bp, medium - term notes decreased by 14.33bp, and corporate bonds increased by 3.54bp [124]. 4.3 Secondary Market Trading Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 561.09 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for each bond type [125]. 4.4 Maturity Yields The maturity yields of national development bonds declined across the board this week. The yields of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the yields of enterprise bonds generally declined, and the yields of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [124][126][127][128]. 4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes increased across the board, the credit spreads of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally increased [130][132][134]. 4.6 Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [137][141][145]. 4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, optional consumption, and daily consumption [149][151]. 4.8 Changes in Subject Ratings There were no bonds with upgraded ratings or outlooks this week [152].

《资治通鉴》有一句话，宋神宗看完这本书后评价道：鉴于往事，有资于治道。 这句话在某种程度上 提醒我们，学习历史的意义，绝不仅仅是为了了解那些曲折离奇的故事，更多的是要从这些往事中汲取 经验，以便对未来做出更明智的判断。如果我们从历史中能得到启示，并用它来指导当前的决策，那才 算是学有所用。 中国历史的启示，事实上也能帮助我们更好地理解美国的现状。许多事情看似复杂， 实则其背后不过是被人为制造出来的区别和误导。比如，今天我们谈到美国经济，常常会注意到它的一 些独特之处：低失业率、低工资、高通胀。这三者乍看之下似乎是矛盾的，然而当我们深入分析时，才 会发现这些现象的背后，藏着更多的故事。 目前，美国的失业率仅为3.6%，而在疫情之前的2020年2 月，失业率为3.5%。从数字上看，这几乎是没有变化的。而失业率的统计规则其实很简单，只有那些 积极寻找工作却没有找到的人，才会被计算进失业人口。如果一个人根本不想工作，哪怕他处于待业状 态，也不会算作失业。因此，从这个角度看，美国的就业市场基本已经接近充分就业，也就是说，100 个想要工作的人中，只有不到4个人还没有找到工作，情况看起来相当乐观。 | 现值 | 发布日期 ...

据估算，2025年12月，欧盟共有1304.3万人失业，其中欧元区占1079.2万人。与2025年11月相比， 欧盟失业人数减少9.4万，欧元区减少6.1万。与2024年12月相比，欧盟失业人数增加7.1万，而欧元区则 减少0.5万。 2025年12月，欧盟共有285.7万（25岁以下）青年失业，其中欧元区占225.7万。当月欧盟青年失业 率为14.7%，低于前一个月的14.9%；欧元区青年失业率为14.3%，也低于2025年11月的14.4%。与2025 年11月相比，欧盟青年失业人数减少1.6万，欧元区减少1.2万。 （原标题：欧元区去年12月失业率降至6.2%） 波黑《独立报》2月2日报道。欧盟统计局公布数据，去年12月，欧元区经季节性调整后的失业率为 6.2%，较去年11月的6.3%有所下降，也低于2024年12月的水平。欧盟去年12月的失业率为5.9%，与去 年11月及2024年12月相比保持稳定。 2025年12月，欧盟女性失业率为6.0%，低于11月的6.1%；男性失业率为5.8%，与前一月持平。 （驻波黑使馆经商处） ...

Group 1 - The Canadian economy experienced an unexpected decrease in employment by 24,800 jobs in January, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.5%, the lowest level in 16 months [1] - The manufacturing sector lost 27,500 jobs, primarily concentrated in Ontario, where key industries were impacted by U.S. tariffs [1] - Overall employment declines in manufacturing, educational services, and public administration outpaced job growth in information, business services, agriculture, and utilities [1] Group 2 - The employment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 60.8%, marking the first decline since August 2025 [1] - The year-on-year growth rate of average hourly wages for permanent employees dropped to 3.3%, the lowest in seven months, down from 3.7% in December [1]