Group 1: Economic Financing Demand - In September, the financing demand of the real economy showed a year-on-year slowdown, with new RMB loans amounting to 16,080 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,662 billion yuan compared to the previous year[9] - Corporate bond financing reached 105 billion yuan, an increase of 2,031 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a shift towards bond financing[9] - The total financing under the social financing framework was 16,185 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1,631 billion yuan[9] Group 2: Household Financing and Policies - Household financing demand rebounded month-on-month but weakened year-on-year, with new household loans at 3,890 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,110 billion yuan year-on-year[10] - The rebound in housing sales supported household financing demand, with a reported sales amount of 2,527.8 billion yuan in September, a month-on-month increase of 22.1%[10] - The impact of interest subsidy policies on corporate financing has yet to be significantly reflected in the data, with corporate financing demand showing a seasonal recovery[12] Group 3: Household Deposit Behavior - In September, the behavior of households moving deposits weakened, with new RMB deposits amounting to 22,100 billion yuan, an increase of 7,600 billion yuan year-on-year[17] - The A-share market's cooling in September led to a return of some funds from equity investments back to deposits, indicating a decrease in household risk appetite[17] Group 4: M1 and M2 Growth Rates - M1 grew by 7.2% year-on-year in September, while M2 grew by 8.4%, with the M1-M2 growth rate gap narrowing for five consecutive months[18][19] - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 growth rates may lead to improvements in corporate profitability, with a projected PPI year-on-year growth rate of -3.6% by June 2025[19]

Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.3%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.9%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 1.1%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.4%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.1% [4] - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were coal (+2.4%), banking (+1.4%), food and beverage (+1.0%), communication (+0.7%), and pharmaceutical biology (+0.2%). The worst-performing sectors were steel (-2.1%), non-ferrous metals (-2.1%), building materials (-1.9%), basic chemicals (-1.8%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.6%) [4] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 19,311 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 15.82 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Research - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year (previous value: -0.4%), which was lower than market expectations and prior forecasts (Wind consensus expectation: -0.1%). The month-on-month growth rate was 0.1% (previous value: 0%) [5] - The market anticipates that the Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth rate is likely to turn positive quickly [5] - The M1-M2 gap is narrowing, indicating a slowdown in the migration of household deposits. In September, fiscal spending exceeded revenue, leading to an increase in both household and corporate deposits [6] - The forecast for excess household savings from 2020 to September 2025 is expected to decrease to 2.89 trillion yuan (previous value: 3.01 trillion yuan), with a notable slowdown in the decline of excess savings in September [6] Light Industry Strategy Report - For Q4 2025, the report emphasizes three main lines: 1) The new consumption sector continues to thrive, with potential valuation shifts for growth stocks. 2) Quality manufacturing and traditional consumption stocks at the bottom of the cycle are expected to see upward opportunities, along with high dividend value. 3) The overseas market is showing gradual improvement after tariff stabilization [8] - The new consumption sector is expected to maintain strong growth, with significant differentiation among companies. The international tobacco giants are continuing to grow, and the pet industry is anticipated to remain highly competitive during the Double Eleven shopping festival [9] - Quality manufacturing is expected to benefit from price increases in metal cans and favorable conditions in the paper and plastic packaging sectors, with a positive outlook for profitability in Q4 [9]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In September 2025, new social financing (社融) increased by CNY 3.53 trillion, a decrease of CNY 229.7 billion year-on-year, which was below market expectations[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, down from 8.8% in the previous month[1] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 1.29 trillion, a decrease of CNY 300 billion year-on-year[4] Group 2: Loan and Deposit Trends - The increase in RMB loans in September was CNY 1.29 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of CNY 3 billion, indicating weak credit growth[4] - Resident deposits increased by CNY 2.21 trillion, a decrease of CNY 1.53 trillion year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in the "moving house" trend of deposits[5] - M1 growth rate was 7.2%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 growth rate was 8.4%, down 0.4 percentage points[5] Group 3: Market Implications and Future Outlook - The high base effect from last year's government bond issuance continues to pressure social financing growth, with a risk of sustained pressure if no new fiscal policies are introduced[9] - The demand for credit is expected to recover with the implementation of policy financial tools and accelerated fiscal spending[14] - The significant increase in resident deposits in September may be linked to a slowdown in the "money-making effect" from the stock market's high volatility[14]

Core Insights - Recent months have seen a decline in the growth rate of household deposits, while non-bank deposits continue to grow rapidly, indicating a shift in asset allocation rather than a direct correlation between household deposits and stock market movements [1][2] Group 1: Deposit Trends - The growth of household deposits has slowed from previous high levels, while non-bank deposits are experiencing significant growth [1] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is characterized by residents reallocating their savings from banks to other assets based on changes in asset return rates [1] Group 2: Asset Reallocation - Over the past 20 years, various asset types such as stocks, real estate, internet financial products, bank wealth management, and funds have served as destinations for the reallocation of household deposits, influenced by changing market conditions [1] - The current increase in non-bank deposits is primarily attributed to the trend of term deposits and an increase in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - "Deposit migration" is a result of relative changes in yield across different financial markets, rather than a cause of these changes [1] - When expectations for bond and stock yields rise, residents tend to increase their holdings in these assets, leading to a corresponding decrease in other asset types under budget constraints [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent recovery of public funds in China, highlighting the significant increase in fund performance and the shift of investor sentiment towards equity markets as a result of favorable market conditions [4][5][6]. Fund Performance - As of July, the net asset value of public funds reached 35.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.25 trillion yuan from the previous year [5]. - This year, 98% of funds have made profits, with only 137 out of 7,451 stock funds reporting losses, which is less than 2% [6]. - A total of 2,582 funds have achieved returns exceeding 30%, accounting for 35% of the total [6]. Sector Analysis - The coal and energy sectors have recorded losses this year, while sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and information technology have significantly outperformed the market, with returns exceeding 40% [7]. - The best-performing funds this year are primarily focused on the pharmaceutical sector, with several funds achieving returns over 100% [7]. Historical Context - The article notes that many investors who entered the market during the 2020-2021 fund boom are now seeing their investments recover after a challenging period from 2022 to mid-2024, where many funds experienced losses [8][9]. - The previous fund boom saw over 5 trillion yuan in new fund issuance, but the market faced turbulence starting in 2022, leading to significant losses in the following years [8][9]. Star Fund Managers - Star fund managers like Zhang Kun and Guo Lan have seen their funds struggle in the current market, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, which has faced downturns [10][11]. - Despite recent recoveries, some funds managed by these star managers still show significant losses over the past three years [11][12]. Investor Behavior - Many investors are now questioning whether to cash out after recovering their investments, leading to a paradox where fund companies may earn more management fees when funds are losing money [17]. - The trend of "money moving" from bank deposits to public funds is beginning, driven by declining deposit rates and a recovering stock market [18][20]. Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the issuance of new funds will increase in the second half of the year, potentially enhancing market activity [19]. - The current market is characterized by structural trends rather than broad policy-driven rallies, with a shift in investor focus towards high-risk, high-reward sectors like technology and artificial intelligence [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate returning to the "6 era" within the year is still low, but it has increased compared to the previous expectation. The operating range is likely to be between 6.90 - 7.25, with the core fluctuation range more concentrated between 7.00 - 7.20. The overall appreciation space is relatively limited, but the depreciation momentum is accumulating [1]. - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate in Q4 2025 may have potential conditions for upward - fluctuating, but the actual increase depends on the central bank's policy attitude and regulatory signals, as well as the verification of the Chinese economy [2][19]. - The potential capital inflow can provide phased support for the RMB, but its sustainability and actual impact scale should not be linearly extrapolated. The Q4 2025 operating environment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will probably be in the cycle combination of "loose money and weak broad credit", which provides a core operating basis for "slowing down the appreciation rhythm" [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to be volatile and weak, with an operating range of 95 - 102 [6]. - The potential "US dollar settlement wave" has increased the probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate falling to the "6 era" within the year, although its formation is still restricted by multiple factors [7][90]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - **Strategy Suggestions** - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the expected increase in the volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate in Q4 compared to Q3 but still in a historically low range, a short straddle option strategy can be adopted, selling both out - of - the - money call and put options [1]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **For Purchasing Foreign Exchange**: Prioritize forward exchange locking. Start at the low - middle level (7.00 - 7.10) of the core exchange rate range, and lock 60% - 80% of the positions in batches. If the exchange rate briefly falls to 6.90 - 7.00, an additional 20% - 30% can be locked. For those with non - fixed payment cycles, a combination of "forward exchange locking + optional transaction" can be used [1]. - **For Settling Foreign Exchange**: Anchor at the upper limit of the range. When the exchange rate reaches 7.18 - 7.20, settle 30% - 40% of the US dollars. If it breaks through 7.20, an additional 20% - 30% can be settled [1]. 3.2 Market Conditions and Core Concerns 3.2.1 Market Volatility Conditions - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate maintained a low - volatility operation in Q3 2025. Whether it can increase volatility in Q4 depends on factors such as macro - narrative changes, market trading volume, and the central bank's policy [10][19]. - **Macro - Narrative Perspective**: The shift from low - to high - volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is related to major macro - narrative changes, following a cycle of "narrative turning - divergence intensifying - volatility rising - cognition converging - volatility converging - new narrative starting". The next potential macro - narrative that may drive volatility is the "Fed's monetary policy shift (substantial and high - rhythm interest rate cuts)" [20]. - **Market Driving Force Perspective**: The inquiry trading volume of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is positively correlated with its implied volatility. An increase in trading volume may indicate an increase in volatility. Currently, the three indicators (offshore - onshore spread, risk - reversal option, and RMB non - deliverable forward) show relatively stable market expectations for the RMB's appreciation and depreciation. If the trading volume remains above $35 billion, the market may accumulate upward volatility momentum [22][31]. - **Central Bank's Policy Perspective**: The central bank's exchange - rate management in Q4 focuses on the "dynamic balance between enhancing flexibility and preventing risks". It will adopt a "discretionary" approach, adjusting policy tools according to market dynamics. The RMB exchange rate is difficult to form a smooth appreciation or depreciation trend [34][38]. 3.2.2 Stock - Exchange Linkage - The stock market and the foreign - exchange market are related through capital flow and market expectation. The recent "residential deposit migration" to the stock market has provided incremental funds for the A - share market, which is driven by the decline in bank deposit interest rates and the increase in the attractiveness of equity assets [43][49]. - However, the "residential deposit/ total market value" chart has three core flaws and cannot be used as direct evidence of "residential deposit migration". The potential capital inflow can provide phased support for the RMB, but its sustainability and scale depend on the long - term investment attractiveness of the stock market and the domestic economic fundamentals [53][55]. - The Q4 2025 operating environment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is likely to be in the cycle of "loose money supply and weak credit expansion", with the appreciation rhythm slowing down. The probability of the RMB forming a trend - based appreciation against the US dollar within the year is still low, but the probability of the RMB exchange rate returning to the "6 era" has increased [63][64]. 3.2.3 External Weak US Dollar Environment - The Fed's interest - rate cut amplitude and rhythm depend on the evolution path of the US economic fundamentals. The September 2025 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut and the weak non - farm employment data have made the issue of "whether the US economy is facing a recession" a key concern [66]. - **Economic Level**: The current US employment market has slowed down but not stalled. Inflation pressure and real - estate market risks restrict the Fed from implementing substantial interest - rate cuts within the year [71][72]. - **Policy Level**: Politically, the short - term policy is likely to remain on the "gradual adjustment" track. If the Fed's independence is interfered with, it may lead to more and larger - scale interest - rate cuts. Overall, the US dollar index is expected to operate in the range of 95 - 102 [73][76]. 3.2.4 US Dollar Settlement Wave - The formation of the US dollar settlement wave has a solid capital foundation, but it also depends on the effective cooperation of enterprise settlement willingness. The factors affecting the RMB exchange rate returning to the "6 era" include the central bank's exchange - rate intermediate - price control, the attractiveness of the domestic equity market, the trend of the US dollar index, and the behavior of enterprises in foreign - exchange transactions [7][85]. 3.3 Q4 Exchange - Rate Trend Judgment - **Benchmark Scenario**: In the context of the Fed's cautious interest - rate cut and the weak recovery of the domestic economy, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.00 - 7.20, with the depreciation momentum gradually accumulating. There are uncertainties in the domestic economic recovery process and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [91]. - **Upward Risk**: Factors such as the unexpected rebound of US inflation, strong US economic data, a change in global risk preference, and uncertainties in the domestic economic recovery may cause the RMB to face short - term depreciation pressure and may briefly break through the 7.20 mark [91][92]. - **Downward Risk**: If the US inflation continues to fall, the domestic economic recovery exceeds expectations, and domestic policies are actively implemented, the RMB may appreciate, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate may fall below 7.0 [92]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In a low - volatility environment, a short straddle option strategy can be adopted, selling both out - of - the - money call and put options. Attention can also be paid to volatility surface arbitrage opportunities, such as constructing a position of "selling near - month straddle combinations + buying far - month straddle combinations" when the near - month implied volatility is significantly higher than the far - month [94]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **For Purchasing Foreign Exchange**: Prioritize forward exchange locking. Start at the low - middle level (7.00 - 7.10) of the core exchange - rate range, and lock 60% - 80% of the positions in batches. For those with non - fixed payment cycles, a combination of "forward exchange locking + optional transaction" can be used [95]. - **For Settling Foreign Exchange**: Anchor at the upper limit of the range. When the exchange rate reaches 7.18 - 7.20, settle 30% - 40% of the US dollars. If it breaks through 7.20, an additional 20% - 30% can be settled, leaving 20% - 30% for subsequent fluctuations [96]. - **Common Risk Warnings** - Avoid excessive speculation and adhere to the "risk - neutral" principle, with the hedging scale matching the actual trade volume [97]. - Dynamically track policies and the market. Adjust hedging positions in time if the USD/CNY spot exchange rate breaks through 7.25 or falls below 7.0 [99]. - Select appropriate tools. Small and medium - sized enterprises should give priority to simple tools such as forwards and options, while large enterprises can combine futures and other tools to optimize strategies but need to be equipped with a professional foreign - exchange management team [99].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trend of residents shifting their savings from bank deposits to the stock market and mutual funds, driven by a recovering market and declining deposit interest rates. The public fund industry has seen significant growth, with the total net asset value reaching 35.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.25 trillion yuan from the previous year [6][9][20]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3,800 points, marking a ten-year high, while the Hang Seng Index has crossed 26,000 points with a year-to-date increase of nearly 33% [6][9]. - As of September 15, 2023, the public fund scale was 33.92 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan from the end of July [19]. - In 2023, 98% of mutual funds have reported profits, with 2,582 funds yielding over 30% returns, and 39 funds exceeding 100% returns [9][10]. Group 2: Fund Manager Performance - Star fund managers like Zhang Kun and Ge Lan have seen significant changes in their fund management scales, with Zhang's scale dropping from 1,019.35 billion yuan to 550.47 billion yuan [16]. - Ge Lan's fund, which focused on the pharmaceutical sector, experienced a cumulative decline of over 65% from July 2021 to September 2024, but has recently rebounded by 52.37% in the past year [14][16]. - The article highlights a shift in investor sentiment, with many choosing to exit funds once they break even, reflecting a "holding paradox" in the mutual fund industry [19]. Group 3: Investment Trends - The article notes that the current market is characterized by a "slow bull" phase, with many investors returning to their accounts to find that their funds have recovered or gained value [8][10]. - The trend of residents moving their savings into the stock market and mutual funds is expected to continue, especially as deposit rates decline and the capital market strengthens [20][22]. - Analysts predict that the issuance of new funds will increase in the second half of the year, enhancing market activity [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. The process of Chinese residents moving their deposits indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major asset classes, such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - In the September Fed meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, reducing the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%. This is the first interest rate cut this year. The statement noted a slowdown in US employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and an increase in employment downside risks. The median interest rate forecast shows that the Fed expects three interest rate cuts this year and one more next year [8]. Domestic Macro - In China, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity need to be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is stable, supporting the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that more special bond funds may be used for debt resolution rather than infrastructure. With the uncertain implementation of the 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments, the demand for physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. Investors in financial assets are recommended to focus on the process of residents moving their deposits and inflation changes [8]. Asset Views - For global major asset classes, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is favorable for risk assets. In China, as residents are moving their deposits, the risk preference is rising. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. The allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the fourth - quarter allocation opportunities can be considered [8]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences, and the short - term judgment is sideways due to the decline of incremental funds. For stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the short - term judgment is sideways considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity. For treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is sideways with concerns about unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - With the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increasing risk of the Fed's independence, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise sideways, while paying attention to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in the third quarter fades and loading is under pressure, there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - For steel, the macro - environment is favorable, but there are still real - world pressures. The short - term judgment is sideways, paying attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. For iron ore, with a slight increase in pig iron production, the price fluctuates sideways, and factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic pig iron production, weather, and port inventory need to be monitored. For coke, with strong cost support, the price fluctuates at a high level, and factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment should be noted. For coking coal, with the rebound of spot coal prices and a slight increase in supply, the short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. For other products like silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, the short - term judgments are all sideways, each with its own key points of concern [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For copper, due to supply disruptions in copper mines, the price fluctuates upward sideways, and factors such as supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, and Fed policy need to be considered. For aluminum, zinc, and other metals, most of them have inventory accumulation issues, and the short - term judgments are sideways, with different risk and concern factors for each. For lead, with a decline in secondary lead supply, the price fluctuates upward sideways. For nickel, due to the crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia, the price fluctuates widely. For stainless steel, with strong cost support, the price rises significantly, and specific risks and demand factors should be noted [9]. Energy and Chemicals - For most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and various fuels, the short - term judgments are mainly sideways or sideways - down, with different influencing factors such as OPEC + production policies, geopolitical situations, and cost - end changes. For chemical products like methanol, PTA, and short - fiber, the short - term judgments are also sideways, each affected by factors such as macro - energy, upstream - downstream device dynamics, and demand [11]. Agriculture - For most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and fibers, the short - term judgments are sideways, with factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts to be considered [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For global major assets, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. Domestically, the risk preference is increasing as the process of household deposit transfer is ongoing. It is recommended to focus more on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major assets. Specific attention should be paid to CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds and precious metals. Additionally, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased to some extent, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be observed [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomy - **Overseas Macro**: In the US, retail and import prices in August exceeded expectations, while the real estate market in September was sluggish. The Fed's interest - rate meeting on the early morning of September 18th is a key event. After the lower - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the August inflation data provides another reason for the Fed to cut interest rates. The intensifying personnel turmoil among Fed governors also boosts the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: It is necessary to observe the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is stable, supporting infrastructure demand to some extent. However, there is a risk that more special bonds may be used for debt resolution rather than physical work. The implementation rhythm of the 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments is uncertain, which may postpone the demand pulse of commodity physical consumption to the end of the fourth quarter. Investors in financial assets are recommended to focus on the process of household deposit transfer and inflation changes [7]. 3.2 Asset Views - **General Recommendation**: In major assets, more attention should be paid to liquidity - sensitive risk assets. Specific attention should be given to CSI 1000 stock index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds and precious metals. The allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and fourth - quarter allocation opportunities can be considered [7]. 3.3 Viewpoint Highlights 3.3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence, and the market is expected to be volatile with the decline of incremental funds [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the market is expected to be volatile with the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the market is expected to be volatile with risks such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increasing risk of the Fed's independence drive the price up, and the market is expected to rise with fluctuations, depending on the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.3.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is no upward momentum due to loading pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, and the decline rate of freight rates in September should be monitored [8]. 3.3.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: There are rumors of production restrictions, and the upward trend of the market has slowed down. The market is expected to be volatile, and factors such as the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production should be monitored [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Port transactions have increased, and the price is fluctuating. The market is expected to be volatile, and factors such as changes in port inventory, policy dynamics should be observed [8]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has been implemented, and market expectations have improved. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on steel production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Downstream replenishment has started, and spot transactions have improved. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: The expectation of "anti - involution" is rising, and the cost side provides support. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The expectation of "anti - involution" is rising, and attention should be paid to steel procurement pricing. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Macro - sentiment has improved, and spot prices have started to rise. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on spot sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Downstream replenishment before the festival has led to a slight rebound in spot prices. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on soda ash inventory [8]. 3.3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: There are new disturbances in copper ore supply, and the copper price is expected to rise with fluctuations, depending on supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed's stance, and domestic demand recovery [8]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakening, and inventory is accumulating. The price is under pressure and expected to be volatile, depending on ore production resumption, electrolytic aluminum production recovery, and sector trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is expected to be volatile, depending on macro - risks, supply disturbances, and demand [8]. - **Zinc**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is expected to be volatile, depending on macro - risks and zinc ore supply [8]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead has decreased, and the price is expected to rise with fluctuations, depending on supply disturbances and battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has banned illegal mining, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, depending on macro - and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the market has risen significantly. The price is expected to be volatile, depending on Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the price is at a high level and expected to be volatile, depending on the resumption of production and demand improvement expectations [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, suppressing the upward space of the price. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on supply reduction and photovoltaic installation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile, depending on demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply - demand imbalance is obvious, and the market is expected to decline with fluctuations, depending on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Valuation repair has been realized, and attention should be paid to the cost side. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: Option positions are concentrated at 3500, and the price rebounds following crude oil. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on sanctions and supply disturbances [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitics, it rebounds weakly following crude oil. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on geopolitics and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It fluctuates following crude oil. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: The contradiction between near - and far - term contracts is large, and the market is expected to be volatile, depending on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: It returns to the fundamental level and is under downward pressure, waiting for new positive factors. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on export implementation and market sentiment [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market is pessimistic about future production capacity expansion. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device implementation [10]. - **PX**: The fundamental driving force is limited, and the price follows the cost. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and demand during peak seasons [10]. - **PTA**: The willingness to hold goods is low, and spot liquidity is abundant, suppressing the basis. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on crude oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and peak - season demand [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: Raw material support is general, and processing fees have recovered. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The off - season of demand is deepening, which restricts the market. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on bottle - chip enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [10]. - **Propylene**: The reduction in propane and PL commodity volume has boosted the price, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [10]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low, and the market is expected to be volatile, depending on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Peak - season demand provides slight support, and the market is expected to be volatile, depending on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: Market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: The reality is weak, but expectations are strong. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked and declined, and the market is cautiously bearish. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.3.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has weakened, and prices may continue to adjust. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices are dragging down the market, and the futures price is testing the lower - bound support. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade relations [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: There has been continuous rainfall recently, and attention should be paid to grain quality. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Hogs**: The policy of reducing weight and limiting production continues, and the near - term contracts are under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Rubber**: It is adjusting downward following the overall commodity market. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has returned to a weak trend. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on crude oil fluctuations [10]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is fluctuating slightly, and attention should be paid to purchase prices. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is fluctuating slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on imports [10]. - **Pulp**: Market sentiment is stable, and the price is in a range - bound fluctuation. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on macro - economic changes and overseas quotes [10]. - **Offset Paper**: There is limited upward momentum, and the price is fluctuating within a narrow range. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production [10]. - **Logs**: Processing demand has slightly recovered, and spot prices may rise. The market is expected to be volatile, depending on shipments and dispatches [10].

Core Insights - A significant outflow of deposits from banks occurred in July, with 1.11 trillion yuan leaving the banking system, despite an overall increase of nearly 10 trillion yuan in deposits over the first seven months of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - The one-year deposit interest rate has fallen below 1%, leading to minimal returns on savings, prompting individuals to seek better investment opportunities [3][5]. - In July, household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 4.69 trillion yuan in deposits over the same period [7][9]. Group 2: Investment Shifts - Individuals are increasingly moving their funds into more lucrative investment options such as mutual funds, stocks, and bank wealth management products, rather than letting their money sit idle in banks [5][12]. - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July reached 1.96 million, a 70.54% increase year-on-year, indicating a growing interest in stock market investments [12]. Group 3: Financial Indicators - As of the end of July, M1 (money that can be readily spent) stood at 111.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a 5.6% year-on-year increase, while M2 (total money supply) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [9][10]. - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 suggests an increase in liquidity and a more active economic environment, as both businesses and individuals are more willing to invest their funds [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Products Popularity - Bank wealth management products are projected to grow to 30.67 trillion yuan by June 2025, with a focus on low-risk fixed-income products [14]. - The popularity of money market funds has surged, with a total scale of 12.3 trillion yuan, as many individuals are placing their short-term idle funds into these products [15][16]. Group 5: Conclusion - The shift in household deposits is not indicative of a lack of desire to save, but rather a response to declining interest rates, leading individuals to seek more valuable ways to manage their money [18].