Gold - The recent fluctuations in gold prices were influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations of potential rate cuts leading to a recovery in gold prices after an initial drop [2] - New Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that a 50 basis point cut is appropriate, suggesting a consensus among officials regarding rate cuts, which may intensify the ongoing conflict between Trump and the Fed [2] - If the Fed cuts rates in the next two meetings, it could signal a recessionary rate cut, increasing market risk aversion and benefiting gold [2] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a bullish reversal, with support at $3666 [2] Oil - Oil prices experienced a downward trend despite previous rebounds, with market sentiment potentially affected by new sanctions against Russia from the EU [4] - The EU's upcoming sanctions aim to target key aspects of the global oil industry, including reducing Russian oil exports and limiting Indian imports of Russian oil [4] - The number of shadow tankers under EU sanctions has exceeded 560, with a price cap on Russian oil set at $47.6 per barrel [4] - Technically, oil's daily chart shows three consecutive bearish candles, indicating a potential end to the recent rebound, with resistance at $63.50 [7] Copper - Copper's daily chart shows a slight bullish trend, but the momentum is weak, making it difficult to change the current market structure [5] - The 4-hour chart indicates significant support from long-term moving averages, with a key level to watch at $4.58; if surpassed, it may target $4.65 [5] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index's daily chart shows a hanging man candlestick pattern, indicating severe overbought conditions and a potential market top [6] - The 1-hour chart suggests that the upward structure has completed, with a high likelihood of a descending ABC pattern forming, and resistance at 45600 should be monitored [6]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 9 月 18 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend, driven by expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, increased demand for safe-haven assets, and supply-demand imbalances, with forecasts for gold prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce sooner than previously anticipated [1][2][3] Gold Market Analysis - As of September 16, COMEX gold futures reached a record high of $3,731.9 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of over 6% in September, surpassing the 5% increase in August [1] - Morgan Stanley has set a year-end target price for gold at $3,800 per ounce, emphasizing the strong inverse correlation between gold and the US dollar [2] - UBS predicts gold prices will rise to $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, with a possibility of reaching $4,000 per ounce amid geopolitical or economic risks [2] - JPMorgan has revised its gold price forecast to an average of $3,800 per ounce in Q4 2023, with expectations of surpassing $4,000 per ounce in Q1 2026, driven by increased investor demand [2] Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are also on the rise, with COMEX silver futures increasing by 41% year-to-date, outperforming gold's 35% increase [4] - The Shanghai silver futures market has entered a new phase, surpassing 10,000 yuan per kilogram [4] - The silver market is more volatile due to its smaller size compared to gold, making it susceptible to rapid price changes [4][5] - Despite optimism for silver prices, JPMorgan expresses greater confidence in the gold market, citing silver's complex outlook and significant industrial demand that may be impacted by macroeconomic risks [5] Macro Economic Factors - The weakening US job market, with non-farm payrolls falling short of expectations and an unemployment rate reaching 4.3%, is contributing to heightened market volatility and increased demand for precious metals [5] - The potential erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence and rising US deficit rates are expected to further undermine the credibility of the US dollar and US Treasury securities, intensifying the global trend of "de-dollarization" [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance and investment trends in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly focusing on the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) which experienced a market pullback but saw significant net subscriptions [1] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) has attracted a total of 181 million yuan in the past 20 days, reaching a historical high of 281 million yuan as of September 15 [1] - Key component stocks such as China Rare Earth, Huaxi Nonferrous, and others have seen declines exceeding 5%, negatively impacting the index performance, while stocks like Lichung Group and Baowu Magnesium have shown positive performance [1] Group 2 - On September 15, spot gold closed at a historical high of $3678.89 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in global financial asset pricing, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [3] - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected to boost non-ferrous metal prices by increasing the attractiveness of physical assets, depreciating the dollar, and lowering borrowing costs for companies, which could enhance demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3][4] - The current market dynamics suggest a tight supply-demand balance for industrial metals, with emerging industry demands and limited supply growth contributing to price stability [4] Group 3 - The strategic importance of rare earths, tungsten, and antimony is emphasized due to their benefits from global geopolitical dynamics [4] - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to positively influence the lithium, cobalt, and aluminum sectors, leading to a valuation recovery in these areas [4] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the performance of the non-ferrous metal index, which includes a diversified portfolio of metals such as copper, aluminum, rare earths, and gold, thus providing risk diversification for investors [4]

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 0.84% to $43.19 per ounce [1][3] - Market analysts noted that pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has raised market concerns, while deteriorating U.S. employment data has strengthened expectations for rate cuts [3] - Progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions, has further heightened market risk aversion [3] Group 2 - The manager of Huaan Gold ETF expressed optimism regarding the medium to long-term allocation value of gold, anticipating that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts by the end of the year [3] - If rate cuts exceed expectations, it would provide additional benefits for gold, especially given the current high levels of U.S. debt and deficits, which raise questions about the long-term sustainability of U.S. Treasury bonds [3] - Trump's intervention in the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting actions has sparked global concerns, potentially undermining the credibility of the U.S. dollar, which is factored into gold pricing [3]

Price Stability in Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with slight declines observed in some stores. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price decreased by 1 yuan per gram, now priced at 1073 yuan per gram, which is among the highest in the market [1] - Shanghai China Gold maintains the lowest price at 999 yuan per gram, with the price difference between the highest and lowest stores narrowing to 74 yuan [1] Gold Price Overview - The latest gold prices from various brands are as follows: - Lao Miao Gold: 1071 yuan per gram (down 2) - Chow Tai Fook: 1073 yuan per gram (no change) - Zhou Liufu: 1038 yuan per gram (no change) [1][3] - Platinum prices have seen a decline, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry dropping by 7 yuan per gram to 554 yuan per gram [4] Gold Recycling Prices - Today's gold recycling prices show a slight decrease of 1.7 yuan per gram. The recycling prices from different brands are as follows: - Cai Bai Gold: 824.30 yuan per gram - Chow Sang Sang: 816.60 yuan per gram - Zhou Dafu: 822.90 yuan per gram - Lao Fengxiang: 831.80 yuan per gram [4] International Gold Market Dynamics - The international gold market experienced fluctuations, with spot gold reaching a historical high of 3673.55 USD per ounce before closing at 3625.04 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.30% [7] - Recent geopolitical tensions, including an Israeli airstrike in Qatar, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to gold price increases. However, the situation is deemed manageable, leading to a reduction in risk aversion [7] - The significant downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, further stimulating gold prices [7]

Group 1 - The Trump administration is urging the U.S. Supreme Court to quickly overturn a previous ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals that deemed the imposition of tariffs on multiple countries by President Trump as illegal [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the appellate court's ruling severely undermines the President's ability to conduct foreign policy and protect national security and the economy [1] - If the ruling is delayed until June 2026, the tariffs collected could reach between $750 billion to $1 trillion, and returning these tariffs could cause significant disruption [1] Group 2 - In the context of increasing risks in the U.S. labor market, the Federal Reserve's policy path is characterized by "expectation reinforcement and independence being undermined," which is putting downward pressure on the U.S. dollar index [3] - Despite rising risk appetite in U.S. equities, institutional investors are continuously increasing their allocation to precious metals, driving prices higher [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is high, and upcoming economic data such as non-farm payrolls will significantly influence future monetary policy expectations and market direction [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - International gold prices hit a new high, and significant domestic events are approaching. Amid overseas economic contraction and rising long - term interest rate risks, the dollar index rose, and the stock market declined. In the domestic market, A - shares weakened, and the market style shifted. The linkage between stocks and bonds weakened, and attention should be paid to post - risk - preference asset allocation opportunities [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to maintain strong performance due to Trump's pressure on the Fed, which erodes market confidence in the Fed's independence, triggering a surge in risk - aversion sentiment. The market is focused on the US non - farm payroll data to predict the September interest - rate cut [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to continue rising due to the combination of macro factors (Trump's intervention in the Fed, weakening dollar, and expected non - conventional economic stimulus measures) and fundamental factors (overseas mine supply disruptions and approaching consumption season) [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate as the market's confidence in the Fed's interest - rate cut strengthens, and the consumption season is approaching, but the market is still waiting for clear macro guidance [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate as the supply remains sufficient, the spot price is slightly down, and the warehouse receipt inventory is rising [10]. - Zinc prices are expected to repair strongly in the short term as the short - selling funds reduce their positions, and there is an expected marginal improvement in consumption and a reduction in supply pressure [11]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate as the short - term supply - demand situation has not changed significantly, and the contradictions are dull [12]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly above the moving average as the market risk preference declines, and the short - term supply is insufficient while demand is weak [13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the supply pressure is high, and the demand side has mixed performance, with the social inventory slightly decreasing [14][15]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to decline weakly as the market corrects the supply - disruption pricing, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see state [16][17]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate as the dollar index rises, putting pressure on nickel prices, but there is an expected improvement in the nickel - iron fundamentals and a potential boost to the spot market after the price decline [18]. - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly as the geopolitical situation in Russia - Ukraine heats up, and the market expects OPEC+ to pause its production - increase plan [19]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate as the supply and demand of steel both increase, and there is short - term technical support [20]. - Iron ore prices are expected to rebound and oscillate as the port inventory slightly decreases, and there is a demand for restocking [22]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to continue oscillating as the US soybean good - crop rate is lower than expected, and there is uncertainty in long - term procurement [23][24]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate as the Malaysian palm oil production decreased in August, but the export demand is strong, mainly due to a significant increase in Indian imports [25][27]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 but remained in the contraction range for six consecutive months. In Europe, debt and political risks intertwined, and long - term bond yields hit multi - year highs. The dollar index rose to 98.4, and the stock market declined. Gold prices hit a new high of 3540, and copper and oil both rose by over 1% [2]. - Domestic: Xi Jinping met with the Iranian President to deepen economic and trade cooperation, and Kim Jong - un arrived in Beijing. A - shares weakened, the market style shifted, and the margin trading balance expanded to 2.3 trillion. The linkage between stocks and bonds weakened, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond interest rates were 1.77% and 2.02% respectively [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Tuesday saw precious metals continue to rise. Trump's pressure on the Fed eroded market confidence in the Fed's independence, driving gold and silver prices to record highs. COMEX gold futures rose 1.51% to 3599.5 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.01% to 41.73 dollars/ounce. The market is focused on the US non - farm payroll data to predict the September interest - rate cut [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward, and LME copper broke through the key resistance above 10,000 dollars. The domestic near - month structure turned to par. Macro factors such as Trump's intervention in the Fed and expected non - conventional economic stimulus measures boosted the metal market. In the industry, the Mantoverde mine in Chile will experience a temporary production decline. Short - term copper prices are expected to continue rising [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,720 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. LME aluminum closed at 2,621.5 dollars/ton, up 0.08%. The market's confidence in the Fed's interest - rate cut strengthened, and the consumption season is approaching, but the market is still waiting for clear macro guidance, so aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,022 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The supply is sufficient, the spot price is slightly down, and the warehouse receipt inventory is rising. Alumina prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated strongly. The US 8 - month ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for six consecutive months, but new orders improved. The domestic consumption is expected to improve marginally, and the supply pressure is relieved in stages. Short - term zinc prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the range [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated. The supply of lead concentrates is tightening, and the supply pressure is weakening as more refineries are under maintenance. The consumption side is affected by both the Middle - East tariff on exported batteries and the new national standard for electric bicycles. Lead prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated narrowly. The decline of European and American stock markets cooled the market risk preference, and the short - term supply is insufficient while demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly above the moving average [13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is high, and the demand side has mixed performance. The social inventory decreased slightly last week. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [14][15]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Tuesday, carbonate lithium oscillated weakly. The market has corrected the supply - disruption pricing, and the downstream is in a wait - and - see state. Lithium prices are expected to decline weakly [16][17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariff policies were unconstitutional, causing the dollar index to soar. The nickel - iron fundamentals are expected to improve, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate [18]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, crude oil prices oscillated strongly. The Russia - Ukraine conflict heated up, and the market expects OPEC+ to pause its production - increase plan. Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly [19]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures stabilized and oscillated. The supply and demand of steel both increased, and there is short - term technical support. Steel prices are expected to stabilize and oscillate [20]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures rebounded and oscillated. The port inventory decreased slightly, and there is a demand for restocking. Iron ore prices are expected to rebound and oscillate [22]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the 01 contract of bean meal fell 0.33% to 3,050 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of rapeseed meal fell 0.44% to 2,500 yuan/ton. The US soybean good - crop rate was 65%, lower than expected. Short - term US soybean procurement agreements are difficult to reach, and prices are expected to continue oscillating [23][24]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, the 01 contract of palm oil rose 1.03% to 9,422 yuan/ton. In August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, but export demand was strong due to a significant increase in Indian imports. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [25][27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Wall Street is bullish on gold prices, with significant inflows into gold ETFs and expectations of further price increases [1][2][3] - COMEX gold futures have reached historical highs, with a peak of $3640.1 per ounce, and some institutions predicting prices could rise to $4000 per ounce [1][3] - Year-to-date, international gold prices have increased by 36%, and the average net value growth rate of 20 gold ETFs is approximately 42% [2][3] Group 2 - As of now, the total scale of 20 gold ETFs has reached 160.3 billion yuan, with an increase of 87.7 billion yuan this year [2] - Major financial institutions like Citibank and Goldman Sachs have raised their gold price forecasts, with Citibank projecting a price range of $3300 to $3600 per ounce in the next three months [3] - Factors driving the bullish sentiment include central bank gold purchases, economic recession risks, and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar [3]

Macro News - The latest report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that job openings in July were 7.181 million, which is below expectations, indicating a gradual weakening in hiring demand among U.S. companies [1] - Following the data release, the U.S. dollar index experienced a sharp decline, benefiting precious metals priced in dollars, such as gold [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that the Fed should begin lowering interest rates this month and continue to do so in the coming months [1] - ISM data indicates that U.S. manufacturing activity has contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, with factory output metrics falling back into contraction territory for the first time in three months [1] Institutional Perspectives - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced due to ongoing issues related to Governor Cook, leading to increased market volatility and heightened risk aversion [1] - The combination of moderate inflation rebound, a cooling labor market, and dovish comments from Fed officials has solidified market expectations for a rate cut in September [1] - There is an increasing likelihood of the U.S. entering a "stagflation-like" scenario due to the cooling labor market and potential tariff impacts [1] - Precious metals have achieved significant technical breakthroughs and are expected to maintain a strong upward trend at high levels [1] - Attention is needed on upcoming employment data from the U.S. to assess the health of the U.S. economy [1]