Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Nvidia's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations, boosting the sentiment of the technology sector and causing today's stock indices to open higher. However, due to strong profit - taking intentions and unresolved Sino - Japanese tensions, the indices weakened after the opening. The market's risk - aversion sentiment was strong, and there was a style shift between large - and small - cap stocks. Defensive large - cap indices were relatively more resilient [5]. - The September non - farm payroll report released tonight is crucial for the Fed's December interest - rate decision. If the employment data improves, the expectation of interest - rate cuts will cool down, and the stock indices are expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indices remaining dominant. If the data shows an increased risk of employment decline, the expectation of interest - rate cuts will rise, strengthening the support for A - shares, and the stock indices may stop falling and rebound in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices opened higher and closed lower. Large - cap indices were relatively more resilient, with the CSI 300 index closing down 0.51%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 17.20 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IM declined with reduced volume, while other varieties declined with increased volume [3]. Important News - Nvidia's Q3 total revenue accelerated by 62% year - on - year, and its Q4 revenue guidance mid - point is expected to increase by 65% year - on - year. Data center revenue reached a record high, and the stock price rose by up to 6% after the market [4]. - The Fed meeting minutes revealed significant differences. Many people think it is not suitable to cut interest rates in December, and some are worried about the disorderly decline of the stock market [4]. Strategy Recommendation - Go long on IH and short on IM [6]. Futures Market Observation - The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM had intraday declines of - 0.69%, - 0.49%, - 0.84%, and - 0.48% respectively. The trading volume of IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased. The open interest of IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased [6]. Spot Market Observation - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.76%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 0.37. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.708189 trillion yuan, a decrease of 17.20 billion yuan from the previous day [7].

Report Type - Stock Index Daily Review [1] Date - November 20, 2025 [2] Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On November 19, the Wind All - A Index declined on lower volume, trending down after opening, recovering in the afternoon and then weakening again, closing down 0.30%. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 closed up 0.44% and 0.58% respectively, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 closed down 0.40% and 0.82% respectively, with large - cap blue - chip stocks performing better. In the futures market, the IF and IH main contracts closed up 0.22% and 0.45% respectively, generally weaker than the spot, and the IC and IM main contracts closed down 0.35% and 0.73% respectively, generally stronger than the spot (based on closing prices) [6] 1.2 Outlook - External markets: Sino - Japanese relations continue to deteriorate, slightly increasing market risk - aversion sentiment. Domestic situation: October economic data shows both supply and demand weakened. The total retail sales of consumer goods in October increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year. The decline rates of both narrowed and reached their lowest levels since September 2024. The investment side continued to shrink, with the cumulative fixed - asset investment from January to October decreasing by 1.7% year - on - year, and the decline rate widening by 1.2 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing and infrastructure further narrowed, and the decline in real estate investment further expanded. Overall, the marginal pressure on domestic economic data has further increased, awaiting policy support. In terms of liquidity, the margin trading balance remains at a high level, supporting the index. The total turnover of the All - A Index shrank to 1.74 trillion yuan. In the short term, policy expectations have weakened recently, and technically, it is near the key pressure level of 4000 points on the Shanghai Composite Index. However, the basis repair shows that market sentiment is not overly pessimistic. It is expected that the index may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, and the market style should adopt a barbell strategy, with balanced allocation between the CSI 300 and CSI 500 [8] 3. Industry News - Regarding China's notification to Japan of the suspension of Japanese aquatic product imports, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated at a regular press conference on the 19th that Japan previously promised to fulfill its regulatory responsibilities for aquatic products exported to China and ensure product quality and safety, which is a prerequisite for Japanese aquatic products to enter the Chinese market. However, Japan has failed to provide the promised technical materials. Recently, due to the wrong remarks of Japanese Prime Minister Takamichi Sanae on major issues such as Taiwan, which have aroused strong public indignation in China, "even if Japanese aquatic products are exported to China, there will be no market" [32]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing a rebound, testing the 157.50 level, despite verbal interventions from Japanese authorities, indicating ongoing pressure on the yen and a strong dollar driven by reduced risk aversion in the market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The latest USD/JPY exchange rate is reported at 157.3900, with a gain of 0.15% [1] - Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno expressed concerns over the recent "one-sided and rapid" fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate, emphasizing the need for vigilance against excessive volatility [1] - The yen has recently fallen below the 157 mark, reaching its lowest level since January of this year, attributed to weakened expectations for short-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily RSI for USD/JPY is in a slightly overbought zone, which may limit the bullish sentiment and lead to a consolidation or moderate pullback [2] - If the exchange rate adjusts, the 156.60 area may serve as the first support level; a drop below 156.00 could trigger further technical selling pressure [2] - Should the market continue to rise, the 157.50 area is identified as a key resistance level, with potential upward movement towards 158.00 and higher resistance at approximately 158.50, aiming for the January high of 159.00 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1,043.72 tons of gold as of November 19, 2025, reflecting an increase of 2.29 tons from the previous trading day. The gold price experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of $4,132.59 per ounce before settling at $4,077.74 per ounce, marking a gain of $10.30 or 0.25% [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of November 19, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's total gold holdings stand at 1,043.72 tons, an increase of 2.29 tons from the previous day [5]. - The report indicates a continuous rise in gold prices, with the highest intraday price reaching $4,132.59 per ounce [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Gold prices initially retreated in the Asian market but remained above the $4,050 per ounce mark, followed by a significant rise during European trading hours due to heightened market risk aversion and increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [5]. - The subsequent decline in gold prices was attributed to a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which peaked at 100.23, the highest level in two weeks, thereby suppressing gold price movements [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreements regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut in December, with some members suggesting that a 25 basis point cut may not be suitable [6]. - The delay in the release of key economic data due to a government shutdown has led to increased uncertainty among policymakers regarding labor market and inflation trends [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The upward trend in gold prices remains intact, although buyer interest appears cautious, as indicated by technical indicators showing a neutral to slightly bullish bias [7]. - Key support levels for gold prices are identified at $4,050, with further support at $4,000 and the November 4 low of $3,930 [7].

美元兑瑞士法郎技术分析 技术面看，美元兑瑞士法郎自0.7990低位反弹后，近期形成震荡上行格局，当前站稳0.8060关键位。今 日以0.8054开盘后震荡走高，冲高0.8068遇阻后回落至0.8066，短期上行动能持续释放。支撑位调整为 0.8060、0.8050及50小时均线（当前位于0.8045附近），若有效跌破0.8045或引发短期回调；阻力集中于 0.8070、0.8080及前期震荡上沿0.8090，突破需基本面利好加持。指标上，MACD红柱小幅放大、RSI升 至58-63区间、ADX接近28，显示趋势性逐步增强，短期大概率维持0.8050-0.8080区间震荡上行。后市 若站稳0.8080，上行空间可看至0.8090-0.8110；若跌破0.8050，则可能下探0.8045-0.8030区域。建议投 资者依托支撑位布局多单，同时密切关注美联储纪要及市场避险情绪变化，及时调整持仓策略。 美元兑瑞士法郎汇率波动的核心驱动，在于美瑞货币政策分化、瑞士经济复苏节奏及市场避险情绪。瑞 士方面，三季度CPI同比1.7%维持在央行0-2%目标区间内，核心通胀低位运行令瑞士央行释放"政策维 持中性"信号，对瑞郎支撑 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has seen a trading volume exceeding 53 million, with a turnover rate of over 2.4%, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF has accumulated a net inflow of 619 million yuan over the past 20 trading days, with a net inflow rate of 37.65%, leading among similar products [1] - The China Securities A500 ETF Tianhong (159360) recorded a trading volume of over 40 million, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Aerospace Development and Spring Breeze Power [1] Group 2 - The international silver spot price surpassed 54 USD/ounce, approaching the historical high of 54.468 USD/ounce set in mid-October [2] - The recent high prices of gold and silver have led to a shift in consumer preferences towards lightweight gold products and gold bars [2] - The long-term trend of de-dollarization is enhancing gold's status as a monetary metal, supported by ongoing central bank purchases of gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in A-shares has shown strong performance, with China Bank's stock price reaching a historical high, driven by rising risk aversion, institutional fund accumulation, and expectations of loose monetary policy [1][3][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 19, the A-share banking sector index rose by 0.63%, with China Bank leading the gains, closing up 3.81% [3][4]. - Other banks such as Everbright Bank, Ping An Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and CITIC Bank also saw significant increases in their stock prices [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Performance - The recent rise in the banking sector is attributed to heightened risk aversion among investors, leading to a shift from high-volatility sectors like solar and semiconductors to low-valuation, high-dividend defensive sectors [11]. - The average dividend yield of the banking sector is approximately 6.5%, significantly higher than the 1.80% yield of 10-year government bonds, making it an attractive option for risk-averse funds [11]. Group 3: Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance funds have increased their holdings in bank stocks by 8.36 billion shares as of the end of Q3 2025, focusing on major state-owned banks and stable regional banks [11]. - Analysts believe that the combination of monetary policy easing and financial regulation aimed at reducing liability costs will support steady profit recovery for banks [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the banking sector's investment prospects, anticipating that the high dividend theme will continue to resonate in the market [12]. - The banking sector is expected to benefit from structural adjustments towards technology finance, green finance, and pension finance, which will enhance long-term growth potential and support valuation recovery [12].

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜主力跌至 85630，市场避险情绪较浓，美重磅数据即将到来，全球风险资产 全都下跌。日内铜现货跌 505 至 86005，现货对盘面升水缩窄 35 至 70，现货进口 亏 370，LME0-3 再转为 contango 结构为 32.6，且沪伦比值回升至 8 以上，预计 将带动进口增加。随着盘面铜价跌破 8.6 万，预计下游买货情绪将回暖，将令铜 价下跌空间有限，短期谨慎追空。 二、 行业要闻 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图 ...

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 11 月 18 日，万得全 A 放量下跌，开盘后一路震荡走低，尾盘小幅修复，收 跌 0.93%；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.65%、0.30%、 1.17%、1.00%，大盘蓝筹股表现更优。期货方面，期货表现整体强于现货，IF、 IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.58%、0.39%、0.89%、0.58%（按收盘价计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 ...

本周，金银价格明显下跌。昨日，沪金、沪银期货价格跌幅较大。分析人士认为，美联储降息预期下降 是近期贵金属价格下跌的主要原因。 此前，美国政府结束"停摆"，短期市场流动性恢复，风险资产普涨，金银价格明显上行。宝城期货宏观 研究员龙奥明认为，本轮金银价格下跌，主要原因是近期美联储多位官员相继发表"鹰"派言论，导致市 场降息预期下降。 白银方面，严梦圆认为，美联储内部分歧加剧影响降息预期，若"鹰"派官员增加则将进一步增强银价下 跌压力。本周将有多位美联储官员在公开场合进行表态，都将对降息预期起到指导作用。 "多位美联储官员的表态给此前市场的降息预期泼了'冷水'，11月初市场一度预期美联储12月降息概率 超过90%。短期降息预期快速下降收紧了市场的流动性，推动了美元指数走强和美国国债收益率回升。 这对于以美元计价的黄金和白银来说，意味着持有成本增加，也间接压制了其价格。"龙奥明表示。 （文章来源：期货日报） 黄金方面，本周沪金价格跌幅较大，浙商期货贵金属分析师郑弘认为，除了受降息预期下降的影响外， 11月地缘政治风险也在下降、全球贸易摩擦缓和，整体市场避险情绪有所降温。 "这些数据将直接影响市场对美联储12月降息的预 ...