本周，中证石化产业指数下跌3%，中证稀土产业指数下跌3.4%。Wind数据显示，截至昨日，化工行业ETF易方达 （516570）已连续15个交易日获资金净流入，合计超14亿元。 由A股中业务范围涵盖稀土开采、稀土加工、稀土 贸易和稀土应用的38只股票组成,反映A股稀土产 业上市公司的整体表现 注1:目前全市场跟踪中证石化产业指数的ETF共2只,跟踪中证稀土产业指数的ETF共4只,跟踪同一指数 的不同ETF产品的费率、跟踪误差、规模等有所不同。银行、互联网平台等相关销售机构提供可场外投资 的ETF联接基金。低费率产品,其管理费率0.15%/年,托管费率0.05%/年。 注2: 数据来自Wind, 指数涨跌幅截至2026年2月6日收盘,指数市净率及其所处分位截至2026年2月5日。 市净率PB(LF)=Σ(成分股,总市值)/Σ(成分股,净资产(最新报告期LF)),该估值指标适用于固定资产数 量较大且账面价值较为稳定的企业,或是盈利周期性波动的企业。指数市净率所处分位指该指数历史上 市净率低于当前市净率的时间占比,分位低表示相对便宜。分位区间为指数发布日/可查询估值记录日起 至2026年2月5日,其中,中证石化产业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing a pivotal moment driven by supply-side reforms, which may lead to improved profitability and valuation recovery for leading companies in the sector [4][28][38]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry has faced significant challenges over the past four years, including excess production capacity and declining profits due to weak domestic demand and increased exports [4][5][24]. - The industry is closely linked to global economic conditions, with periods of opportunity often followed by prolonged downturns [4][24]. Group 2: Supply-Side Reforms - Recent government policies aim to eliminate low-price competition and encourage quality improvements, leading to the exit of outdated production capacities [6][7][24]. - The tightening of new capacity approvals is expected to fundamentally change the industry's landscape, reducing excess supply both domestically and globally [7][27]. Group 3: Profitability and Valuation Recovery - The chemical sector may witness a "Davis Double Play" scenario, where both profitability and valuations improve simultaneously [28]. - Current valuations for leading chemical companies remain low, not reflecting their asset scale or market position, indicating potential for significant upward revaluation [29][30]. Group 4: Market Consensus - There is a growing consensus among institutional investors regarding the chemical sector, driven by confidence in policy execution, recognition of bottoming profitability, and acknowledgment of low valuations [31]. Group 5: Short-Term Adjustments and Long-Term Trends - Recent fluctuations in the chemical sector are viewed as short-term disturbances, with the long-term positive trend and core logic remaining intact [32]. - The industry is expected to benefit from a tightening supply environment and ongoing policy support, which may lead to a positive shift in price expectations for chemical products [32][34]. Group 6: Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities in the chemical sector can be captured through a professional framework that focuses on identifying businesses with clear pricing power and potential for profit recovery [35][36]. - Key strategies include investing in sectors with stable pricing capabilities, capturing price rebounds during market pessimism, and identifying advanced production capacities that can yield significant profits [36][37].

文： 泽平宏观团队 2024 年 9 月下旬以来，力度空前的宏观放松政策和AI科技浪潮点燃了 A 股港股 " 信心 牛 " 行情，一轮波澜壮阔的牛市启动。 随着 A 股到达 4100 点，市场出现大幅震荡，很多朋友问， 牛市结束了吗？未来还有没 有行情？ 我在2024年9月市场信心低谷的时候，率先旗帜鲜明看多，提出 "信心牛"和"东升西 落"。 最近我复盘了 A 股历史上的三次大牛市， 1999-2001 年的 519 行情、 2005-2007 年的周期牛、 2014-2015 年的改革牛和水牛，寻找牛市运行的规律，帮助大家看清本轮牛 市的来龙去脉。 通过复盘三轮大牛市，我有七大发现： 一是 A 股大牛市启动需要三大条件，政策转向、资金流入、估值低位， 最初充满争议， 伴随估值逐渐修复，投资者的热情被点燃后开启牛市。牛市总是在绝望中重生，争议中上 涨，狂欢中崩盘。 二是 A 股牛市一般经历三个阶段，政策驱动 - 资金驱动 - 基本面驱动， 牛市启动初期 与经济基本面关联较小，但牛市的持续上涨与经济基本面有关，若无基本面和企业盈利支 撑，则终究会回吐涨幅。 三是 A 股政策市和散户为主的特征导致牛短熊长，大起 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index increased by 5.07% last week, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.38%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.38%. In the A-share market, the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index rose by 1.85%, and the CSI 300 increased by 0.09% [1][7]. Investment Strategy - Recent market trends show a significant style rotation, with the previously strong technology growth sector and dividend value style exhibiting a "seesaw" effect. The dividend sector has regained its attractiveness due to high dividends and low valuations after a prior correction. This is supported by ongoing loose monetary policy, emerging cyclical recovery expectations, and the demand for allocation from long-term funds like insurance [1][8]. - The cyclical recovery expectation is heating up, with potential for both profit and valuation increases. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index is heavily invested in leading cyclical industries such as transportation and petrochemicals, which are expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics. The global fiscal and monetary easing cycle is leading to a gradual economic recovery, while domestic policies aimed at reducing competition are helping to optimize capacity and improve the profitability of leading companies [8]. Dividend and Valuation Metrics - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index has a dividend yield of 5.70% compared to 4.69% for the CSI Dividend Index, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.65 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 7.32. Over the past five years, its total return index has increased by 163%, outperforming the Hang Seng total return index by 148%. The CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index has a dividend yield of 4.65%, a PB of 0.86, and a PE of 8.61, with a total return of 74% over five years, outperforming the CSI 300 total return index by 75% [2][8]. ETF Products - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend ETF (513920) is the first ETF in the market that combines the attributes of Hong Kong stocks, central enterprises, and dividends. It tracks the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index, which includes high-dividend central enterprises in Hong Kong. Related products include the Huaan Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend ETF Connect A (020866) and Connect C (020867) [3][9]. - The product overview for the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend ETF (513920) shows a net value of 1.6989, a scale of 66.77 billion, and a weekly trading volume of 20.18 billion [4][10]. - The State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (561060) tracks the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index, selecting 100 stocks from state-owned enterprises with high cash dividend yields and stable dividends, reflecting the overall performance of high-dividend state-owned enterprises in the A-share market. Related products include the Huaan CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF Connect A (020461) and Connect C (020462) [11].

Summary of Conference Call on Sailun Tire Industry Overview - The tire industry is expected to experience a "Davis Double-Click" opportunity in 2026, driven by performance and valuation improvements [1] - The overall sector is projected to achieve approximately 30% average elasticity in 2026, influenced by the performance of leading domestic companies [1] - Key drivers of performance include volume growth and profit margin increases [2] Volume Growth - The primary trend in the tire industry is the expansion into overseas markets, with significant growth potential [2] - Current overseas market penetration is less than 20%, with semi-steel tires holding about 15% market share in Europe and North America, while full-steel tires have around 30% [2] Profit Margin Increases - Profit margins are expected to improve due to favorable conditions in Europe and price increases in the U.S. [3] - European dealers are seeking high-quality production capacity from leading Chinese tire manufacturers, which allows for price hikes due to high capacity utilization [3] - The U.S. market has seen a tax increase on semi-steel tires, leading to a gradual price increase throughout 2026 [3] Company Overview: Sailun Tire - Sailun specializes in semi-steel, full-steel, and off-road tires, demonstrating strong risk resilience [6] - The off-road tire segment, particularly in the rubber tire category, has a gross margin exceeding 50%, while overall gross margins for off-road tires are around 40% [6] - Sailun's overseas revenue accounts for approximately 80% of total income, positioning it as a leading exporter since 2012 [7] Financial Performance - Sailun has maintained a stable ROE of over 20%, attributed to strong overseas profit margins, particularly in semi-steel tires [7] - The company has consistently achieved high CAGR in its performance since its listing [8] Future Growth Prospects - Sailun is expected to continue expanding its overseas production capacity, with new factories in Indonesia and Mexico projected to contribute significantly to performance in 2026 [9] - The company has a strong track record of rapid factory construction and production ramp-up, typically achieving operational status within 1 to 1.5 years [10] Valuation and Market Position - Current valuation is low, around 11-12 times earnings, suggesting potential for upward adjustment [11] - Sailun's ability to maintain profitability through various economic cycles has been validated over the years, including during trade tensions and the pandemic [12] Brand Development - Sailun is focusing on enhancing its brand strength, particularly in the high-end tire market [13] - The company is increasing its domestic market presence and is expected to significantly boost its supply volume in the coming years [13] - Recent collaborations with high-end brands, including Xiaomi and Porsche, are expected to enhance brand recognition and market share [14] Conclusion - Sailun is positioned as a leading player in the tire industry with a robust overseas strategy and strong financial performance [15] - The company is recommended for long-term investment due to its stable growth prospects and potential for valuation increases in the industry [15]

华夏基金翟宇航围绕周期股投资框架（自上而下找贝塔机会、聚焦供需边界变化与宏观优先），展望 2026 年资源 品市场呈现百花齐放态势，核心看好贵金属（黄金为首）、铜、铝等品种，其中黄金受益于美元信用动摇与央行 配置多元化，黄金股当前估值偏低且存在戴维斯双击机会，铜受供需紧平衡支撑有 25%-30% 上涨空间；2026 年 宏观经济外强内弱，国内 PPI 年中或三季度有望成本推动型转正，名义 GDP 企稳回升利好商品与上市公司盈利， 产品配置上周期 华夏基金翟宇航围绕周期股投资框架（自上而下找贝塔机会、聚焦供需边界变化与宏观优先），展望 2026 年资源 品市场呈现百花齐放态势，核心看好贵金属（黄金为首）、铜、铝等品种，其中黄金受益于美元信用动摇与央行 配置多元化，黄金股当前估值偏低且存在戴维斯双击机会，铜受供需紧平衡支撑有 25%-30% 上涨空间；2026 年 宏观经济外强内弱，国内 PPI 年中或三季度有望成本推动型转正，名义 GDP 企稳回升利好商品与上市公司盈利， 产品配置上周期类产品重仓贵金属，全市场产品以平衡配置 + 波动率管理为核心。 ...

Lumentum Q2 FY26 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Lumentum - **Fiscal Quarter**: Q2 FY26 - **Revenue**: $666 million, a year-over-year increase of 65% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17%, marking a historical high [1][1][1] Key Insights Industry Dynamics - **AI-Driven Growth**: The growth is primarily driven by AI, leading to a significant increase in demand for cloud transceivers and OCS (Optical Circuit Switch) products [1][1][1] - **Backlog Orders**: OCS backlog orders have surpassed $400 million, indicating strong future revenue potential [1][1][1] Financial Performance - **Components Revenue**: - Revenue from optical components reached $444 million - Strong demand for EML (Electro-Absorption Modulated Laser) lasers driven by DCI (Data Center Interconnect) and long-haul applications [2][2][2] - Contribution to data center laser chip revenue is 10% despite only accounting for 5% of sales volume [2][2][2] - **Systems Revenue**: - Revenue from optical systems was $222 million - Cloud transceivers revenue increased by approximately $50 million quarter-over-quarter due to the transition to 1.6T networks [2][2][2] - OCS backlog is expected to be delivered in the second half of 2026 [2][2][2] Profitability Metrics - **Gross Margin**: Non-GAAP gross margin improved to 42.5%, a significant increase of 820 basis points year-over-year and 310 basis points quarter-over-quarter [2][2][2] - **Operating Margin**: Non-GAAP operating margin reached 25.2%, an increase of 1730 basis points year-over-year [3][3][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Non-GAAP EPS was $1.67 [3][3][3] Future Outlook - **Revenue Guidance for FY26 Q3**: Expected revenue between $780 million and $830 million, with a midpoint of $805 million, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 85% [3][3][3] - **EPS Guidance**: Projected EPS between $2.15 and $2.35 [3][3][3] - **Supply-Demand Gap**: There remains a 30% supply-demand gap for EML capacity, with all capacity secured through long-term agreements [3][3][3] - **Growth Drivers**: Three main growth drivers identified: 1. Cloud transceivers (1.6T ramp-up) 2. OCS (release of $400 million+ orders) 3. CPO (multi-million dollar order reserves) [3][3][3] - **Capacity Expansion**: Progress on InP (Indium Phosphide) wafer fabrication expansion is ahead of schedule, with efforts to seek foundry partnerships to meet explosive demand [3][3][3] - **Product Mix Improvement**: The share of 200G products is expected to rise to 25% by year-end, potentially leading to a dual boost in valuation and performance [3][3][3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant rebound in precious metals, with spot gold surging by 5.96% in a single day, reaching over $4,980 per ounce, marking the largest single-day increase since November 2008 [1] - Spot silver also experienced a dramatic rise, with an intraday increase of over 10%, surpassing the $89 mark [1] - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector opened strongly, with the non-ferrous mining ETF (招商, 159690) rising by 2.11%, and leading stocks such as Hunan Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Copper showing notable gains [1] Group 2 - The rebound is attributed to technical recovery and long-term value reassessment, with gold prices hitting key support levels after a historic drop, prompting short sellers to cover positions and long-term investors to buy on dips [1] - The fundamental support for a long-term bull market in gold remains intact, driven by expectations of global monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases, which form the value foundation after price declines [1] - The market is expected to experience high volatility in the near term, with gold prices likely entering a wide fluctuation phase unless new macro catalysts emerge [1] Group 3 - The non-ferrous mining ETF (招商, 159690) has a high concentration in its top three weighted commodities: copper (31%), gold (14%), and aluminum (12%), accounting for nearly 60% of its total [3] - The ETF is described as a "non-ferrous amplifier" due to its concentrated investment in upstream resource leaders, where rising prices of non-ferrous metals lead to significant profit increases, resulting in a "Davis double play" effect with net value growth multiples exceeding that of the commodities themselves [3]

双融日报 2026 年 02 月 02 日 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：40 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 1、《双融日报》2026-01-30 2、《双融日报》2026-01-29 3、《双融日报》2026-01-28 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 40 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 天 化 （600096） 2、银行主题 ...

Group 1 - The AI application sector is beginning to show performance as the domestic AI computing infrastructure is becoming more established, shifting focus towards downstream applications and terminals, with blockbuster AI products expected to emerge [1][2] - Historical technology innovation cycles indicate that core companies often achieve a "Davis Double" in performance and valuation, highlighting the importance of identifying key players in the AI application field [1][2] - The investment strategy involves focusing on core segments of the AI industry chain, identifying companies with favorable competitive positions, governance, and industry status, which are likely to bind with leading customers and occupy critical roles [3] Group 2 - The AI investment trend is shifting from upstream computing power to downstream applications, with expectations of rapid growth in AI hardware products, such as AI glasses, which may follow a development path similar to TWS earphones [2] - Major global companies like Apple, Meta, OpenAI, and ByteDance are expected to launch new products between 2026 and 2027, potentially acting as catalysts for the market [2] - The investment team at the company has established a dedicated AI task force to systematically track key variables such as policies, product launches, and technological breakthroughs, aiming to capture non-linear changes in the AI industry [3][4]