一、回购与增持：同谱异曲，各有千秋 乍一看，回购与增持似乎都是"自己买自己"的简单操作，但细究之下，二者在动机、资金来源以及市场 信号传递上，实则存在着微妙而重要的差异。 公司回购，是企业动用自身现金储备，在公开市场上购回本公司股票，后续通常会将股票注销或用于股 权激励。这一行为如同一种精妙的财务魔法，直接减少了流通股的数量。在利润保持不变的前提下，每 股收益得以提升。它所传递的核心信息是："管理层坚信公司股价被严重低估，且公司具备充裕的现金 用于合理的资本配置。" 而股东增持，尤其是实控人或高管的增持，则是个人或关联方拿出真金白银购买公司股票。这种行为所 蕴含的信号更为强烈，仿佛是内部人用自己的钱在庄严投票，他们凭借对公司的深入了解，向市场宣 告："我们最清楚公司的实际价值。" 在资本市场的风云变幻中，上市公司的回购与增持行为宛如一场精心策划的精彩大戏，时刻撩拨着投资 者的神经，引发无尽遐想。当立讯精密这一市值超千亿的行业巨擘，在短短数月内接连上演"实控人增 持"与"公司回购"的精彩双幕剧时，我们不禁要深入探究：这些举动究竟释放了何种信号？它们对股价 的影响，是实实在在的推动，还是仅仅是市场心理的一场虚幻游 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the strategy of a technology - powered nation combined with the AI wave will remain the main theme of the A - share market. The listing of technology leaders like Changxin Technology will strengthen the contribution of technology stocks to the index. Small - cap indexes are expected to perform well, and the market will maintain a slow - bull trend despite fluctuations from valuation and capital factors [6]. - In the assumption of constant valuation, the market value of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index in 2026 may rise by 5% - 10%, the CSI 300 by 8% - 18%, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 by 18% - 26% [54]. - In 2026, the phenomenon of stock index futures trading at a discount will still exist. The cost advantage of short - position holders moving from the current - month contract to the quarterly - month contract is evident, and the main trading and holding contracts have shifted to quarterly - month contracts [60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Market Review Stock Market - In 2025, the A - share market showed a slow - bull trend of fluctuating upward. The AI industry chain, robotics, and non - ferrous metal sectors led by artificial intelligence rose significantly, but there were differences in the performance of different indexes. By December 30, the annual increase of the CSI 300 Index was 18.21%, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 13.1%, the CSI 500 Index rose 30.27%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 27.52% [5][11]. Stock Index Futures - In 2025, the discount of stock index futures widened compared to the previous year, showing a cyclical pattern of convergence at the beginning and end of the year and expansion in the middle. The average daily discounts of the four IM contracts reached record highs. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures continued to grow steadily. IM was the most - concerned variety, with trading volume and open interest increasing by 19.4% and 20.4% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of IC recovered after hitting a bottom in April, and the annual average daily trading volume increased by 3.7%. The trading volume and open interest of IH both declined, while the trading volume of IF was stable and the open interest increased by 5.2% [13][16]. 3.2 Future Outlook and Investment Strategy Index Space Calculation - In 2025, there were significant differences in the performance of major indexes, which were mainly due to differences in industry indexes. The non - ferrous metal and communication sectors had annual increases of 93% and 87% respectively, while the food and beverage and coal sectors had negative returns. The weight of the electronics industry in major indexes increased significantly. In 2025, electronics was the most - contributing industry to the four major indexes [21][24][30]. - In 2026, the consensus forecast for the profit growth of each index is 5% for the Shanghai Composite 50, 9% for the CSI 300, 22% for the CSI 500, and 23% for the CSI 1000. Considering industry growth and weight, the possible market - value growth of the Shanghai Composite 50 is 18%, the CSI 300 is 26%, the CSI 500 is 36%, and the CSI 1000 is 36%. After adjustment, in the assumption of constant valuation, the market - value increase of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index in 2026 may be 5% - 10%, the CSI 300 may be 8% - 18%, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may be 18% - 26% [45][50][54]. Stock Index Futures Basis Outlook - In 2025, the basis of stock index futures generally showed a significant increase in discount. The main reason is that the market provided large fluctuations, making the performance of individual stocks and indexes differentiated, and the excess return of the neutral strategy was significant, allowing it to continue hedging even with a large discount. In 2026, the discount phenomenon of stock index futures will still exist. The cost of short - position holders in stock index futures for contract roll - over has increased significantly, and since October 2024, the main trading and holding contracts have shifted to quarterly - month contracts, which reduces the operation risk of investors [55][58][61]. Policy, Capital, and Valuation Outlook - Since the release of the new "Nine - Article National Plan", policies have clearly supported the market. In 2026, the policy focus will shift to "actively contributing to high - quality economic development and a good start of the 15th Five - Year Plan", while maintaining stable development. In 2025, long - term capital continued to enter the market, and the margin balance continued to grow, keeping the market capital abundant. However, the reversal of the M1 - M2 spread at the end of the year and the difficulty of further interest - rate cuts will have an impact on investors' psychology. In 2025, as the market continued to rise, the stock index valuation was no longer cheap, which will suppress the performance of the index and increase market volatility [67][70][75]. Future Strategy - Unilateral: Given the slow - bull trend, conduct trading based on fluctuations. - Arbitrage: Go long on IM/IC main contracts and short ETFs. - Options: Adopt the bull - spread strategy [7].

化工ETF嘉实(159129)跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，该指数从沪深市场中选取50只规模大，流动性 好的化工上市公司，反映化工产业的表现。前十大权重股分别为万华化学、盐湖股份、天赐材料、藏格 矿业、巨化股份、华鲁恒升、多氟多、恒力石化、宝丰能源、云天化，权重合计超45.41%。 据深交所数据显示，截至13:30，深证成指上涨0.67%，创业板指上涨0.54%，细分化工指数上涨 2.37%，个股方面，恒力石化涨超6%，巨化股份涨超3%，万华化学、盐湖股份等跟涨。 热门ETF方面，化工ETF嘉实（159129）涨2.56%，盘中成交额达2062万元，换手率达2.86%。 展望后市，中国银河证券表示，2024年以来化工行业资本开支迎来负增长，随着"反内卷"浪潮袭来及海 外落后产能加速出清，供给端有望收缩。"十五五"规划建议"坚持扩大内需"为未来五年定调，叠加美国 降息周期开启，化工品需求空间打开。其认为，供需双底基本确立，政策预期强力催化，2026年化工行 业或迎周期拐点向上，开启从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"。 化工行业下行周期已持续约3年半时间，随着行业资本开支持续下降及海外落后产能加快退出，中金公 ...

央广网北京12月30日消息（记者高敏）据中央广播电视总台经济之声报道，展望2026年，影响A股的关 键变量有哪些？海内外政策有哪些要点值得关注？中央广播电视总台经济之声交易实况《基金观察》采 访了博时基金首席市场策略分析师陈奥。 基金观察：展望2026年，影响A股的核心变量是盈利、流动性，还是政策？ 陈奥：2025年市场是一个估值推动的行情，接下来如何去消化估值，如何让资金更有信心继续进入市 场，盈利将会成为2026年大家都会比较关注的点，即实体经济的复苏、上市公司的盈利改善，最后能否 有效地消化当前相对较高的估值？ 从今年三季报的相关数据来看，整个AI产业链、储能等相关行业的利润修复情况相比其他行业明显领 先。2026年，哪些行业的盈利能够明显复苏，并且出现明显的盈利拐点，将会比较容易受到资金的关注 和持续追踪。 流动性方面我不太担心。央行货币政策仍然是坚持适度宽松，更加的灵活，整体财政的积极以及货币的 宽松不会有大改变。同时，大家都比较认同，美联储的降息周期可能会持续下去，美元走弱，最终给全 球流动性带来的宽松预期实际上比较明确。 从需要关注的指标来看，2026年大家密切关注的是PPI是否能够转正。PPI ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the internet sector, is experiencing a downturn, with the Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) showing signs of bottoming out amid global risk sentiment. The ETF has seen a net inflow of 35.89 million CNY despite a recent decline in value [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) opened lower and has reached a new low since October, with a decrease of 0.19% [1][5]. - The index tracked by the ETF has dropped over 19% since October, with a current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24.38, which is at the 25th percentile of the past five years, indicating a significant valuation discount compared to other indices [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current valuation of Hong Kong internet stocks reflects pessimistic expectations, and with potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, a favorable investment window is emerging [8]. - The technology sector, particularly driven by AI advancements, is expected to be a key driver for market recovery, with major internet companies transitioning from competition for traffic to competition based on ecosystem capabilities [8]. Group 3: ETF Composition and Strategy - The Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) passively tracks the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index and has significant holdings in major internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi, with over 73% of its top ten holdings focused on AI and cloud computing [8]. - The ETF has an average daily trading volume exceeding 600 million CNY, supports T+0 trading, and is not subject to QDII quota restrictions, enhancing its liquidity [8].

12月29日，港股冲高回落，恒指一度重回26000点，午后回落收跌0.71%。重仓互联网龙头的港股互联 网ETF（513770）早盘场内价格一度涨近1%，午后翻绿收跌1.14%，失守5日、10日均线，全天成交额 4.68亿元。值得一提的是，港股互联网ETF（513770）全天多数时间宽幅溢价，显示买盘资金对当前位 置性价比的认可，进场态度积极。 | 分割 8日 1分 # | F9 盘前盘后 盈加 九转 面线 工具 @ (2 )> | 港股互联网ETF ① | 0.522 -0.006 -1.14% | 513770 甜脸互联网ETF] 15:00 价 0.522 涨跌 -0.006(-1.14%) = | 513770 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE CNY 15:20:16 闭市 查看L2全覆 | 净值击势华宝中证清般通互联 今年 | 22.97% 120日 | 0.00% | | | | | | | | ...

Core Insights - The Chinese capital market has shown a clear "slow bull" trajectory in 2025, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 18.26% and 30.62% respectively [1] - The domestic ETF market has accelerated, surpassing 6 trillion yuan in total scale, with a growth of over 2.29 trillion yuan in 2025 [1] - Key sectors driving growth include AI and non-ferrous metals, with the non-ferrous metals sector seeing a 71.30% increase, and AI-related ETFs experiencing over 100% growth [1][3] 2025 Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector led the market with a 71.30% increase, followed by the communication sector at 64.87% [1] - Popular ETFs such as the Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) and the Huabao AI ETF (159363) have reached new highs, reflecting strong investor interest [1] - The Huabao Core Advantage Fund has significantly outperformed its benchmark, with one-year and three-year returns of 95.65% and 144.70% respectively [1] 2026 Market Outlook - The 2026 investment outlook is optimistic, with expectations of stable economic growth and a potential "Davis Double" effect in A-shares, driven by earnings growth [3] - The influx of "long money" into the market is anticipated, supported by policies encouraging insurance funds to increase their A-share investments [3] - The report highlights a focus on technology growth, particularly in AI and its applications, as a key investment theme for the coming years [6] Sector Focus - The AI industry is identified as a critical investment area, with emphasis on domestic alternatives and application scenarios [6] - The defense sector is expected to see increased demand, with military spending projected to rise in 2026 [7] - The report outlines three main commodity market drivers for 2026: green inflation, anti-involution, and a potential interest rate cut cycle, with a focus on basic metals and precious metals [7]

回顾2025年，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指、科创综指年内分别累计上涨18.26%、30.62%、 51.47%、46.08%，中国资本市场一条鲜明的"慢牛"轨迹徐徐展开。（截至2025.12.26） ETF市场随之加速发展。2025年以来，国内ETF市场总规模增超2.29万亿元，规模首超6万亿元大关，达 到6.03万亿元。以创业板人工智能ETF华宝（159363）、有色ETF华宝（159876）、金融科技ETF （159851）为代表的市场热门ETF品种，凭借火热的赚钱效应，成为广大投资者手中参与进攻行情锋利 的矛。（截至2025.12.26） 面对即将到来的2026年，投资者又该如何预判和准备呢？ 回顾2025年：AI、有色齐飞 2025年，全球资本市场普遍走高，以A股、港股为代表的中国资产，表现尤强。2025年前11个月，有色 金属（申万）涨幅高达71.30%，高居31个申万一级行业涨幅榜第一；排名第二的是与算力高度相关的 通信行业，通信（申万）同期涨幅高达64.87%。（数据来源：Wind） 热门ETF品种——有色ETF华宝（159876）近期持续刷新上市新高，其跟踪的中证有色指数持续刷新近 十年新高 ...

化工板块今日（12月29日）出现回调，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）全天低位震荡，截 至发稿，场内价格跌1.49%。 华安证券指出，我国"反内卷"浪潮持续。从细分行业来看，在周期底部阶段，瓶片、有机硅、己内酰胺 等行业纷纷呼应，行业集体自律。其认为，本轮"反内卷"浪潮有望强化化工企业自律行为，引导化工品 价格及盈利水平逐步回归理性。 成份股方面，氟化工、锂电、钾肥等板块部分个股跌幅居前。截至发稿，多氟多大跌超8%，新凤鸣跌 超5%，盐湖股份、天赐材料跌超4%，彤程新材、星源材质、鲁西化工等多股跌超3%，拖累板块走势。 展望后市，中国银河证券表示，2024年以来化工行业资本开支迎来负增长，随着"反内卷"浪潮袭来及海 外落后产能加速出清，供给端有望收缩。"十五五"规划建议"坚持扩大内需"为未来五年定调，叠加美国 降息周期开启，化工品需求空间打开。其认为，供需双底基本确立，政策预期强力催化，2026年化工行 业或迎周期拐点向上，开启从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"。 东兴证券指出，展望2026年，随着化工品供需格局改善，以及原油、煤炭等大宗原材料价格回落、行业 成本压力有所缓解，处于中游的化工 ...

此外，美联储降息背景下，港股市场流动性趋于宽松，非银金融板块有望展现向上弹性。中信建投证券 指出，当前"服务新质生产力+中长期资金入市+券商国际化机遇"三大逻辑尚未充分定价，未来将逐步 兑现至行业基本面，为证券行业带来中长期业绩弹性与韧性支撑。同时，保险板块亦具备业绩增长与估 值修复的双重机会，长端利率企稳回升有望带动上市险企估值修复，寿险2026年开门红新单增速或超预 期，财险非车险业务在"报行合一"推动下承保利润也有望较快增长。 场内ETF方面，截至2025年12月29日午间收盘，恒生ETF港股通(159312)换手23.47%，市场交投活跃。 成分股比亚迪股份涨近6%，吉利汽车涨近5%，理想汽车-W、中国石油股份等跟涨。前十大权重股合计 占比53.74%，其中权重股美团-W涨超2%，香港交易所等跟涨。拉长时间看，截至2025年12月26日，恒 生ETF港股通近1周累计上涨17.62%，居跟踪同标的指数ETF之首。 2025年接近尾声，港股持续磨底。但历史经验表明，重大的市场机遇往往在最悲观、估值最被压缩时悄 然孕育。展望2026年，机构对港股趋势态度乐观。光大证券认为，2026年港股市场将在估值修复、盈 ...