Core Viewpoint - After a brief adjustment, lithium carbonate futures have experienced a significant price increase, with the main contract closing at 76,960 yuan/ton on August 8, marking a weekly rise of over 10% [1] Supply Changes and Price Drivers - The market's focus has shifted to the progress of mining license renewals in Jiangxi, with expectations of production cuts driving the potential for supply contraction, which is a key factor for price increases [3] - Despite the uncertainty surrounding potential production halts, this has led to heightened sensitivity in market trading rhythms [3] - Current weekly production of lithium carbonate remains high, and rising prices have encouraged some companies to increase operational willingness, with expectations of increased output from African and South American sources [3] - Social inventory growth is limited, indicating that downstream sectors still have some capacity for absorption, although rapid price increases have led to a cautious stance among processing and end-user companies [3] Demand Changes and Market Sentiment - Demand-side changes have not led to a comprehensive boost, but there are still expectations for a seasonal peak, with a slight decline in new energy vehicle sales in the first half of the year [4] - There are signs of increased production plans for cathode materials and battery cells, which bolster confidence among some market participants to maintain long positions and enhance raw material replenishment intentions [4] - The impact of market sentiment has been particularly pronounced, with ongoing speculation about production halts leading to significant short-term price fluctuations [4] - Despite prices being at high levels, market volatility may continue until actual procurement activities commence, necessitating a stable response from investment and industrial procurement to mitigate risks from over-expectation [4]

Core Insights - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 1.57% while ICE white sugar futures decreased by 1.96% [1] - ICE coffee "C" futures rose by 5.43%, and Robusta coffee futures increased by 8.71% [1] - Cocoa futures in New York increased by 1.22%, reaching $8277 per ton, while London cocoa futures rose by 0.73% [1] - ICE cotton futures saw a rise of 1.02% [1] Sugar Market - ICE raw sugar futures dropped by 1.57% [1] - ICE white sugar futures experienced a decline of 1.96% [1] Coffee Market - ICE coffee "C" futures increased by 5.43% [1] - Robusta coffee futures surged by 8.71% [1] - Brazil's main Arabica coffee bean region reported zero rainfall for the week, below the historical average of 1.4 mm [1] Cocoa Market - New York cocoa futures rose by 1.22%, with a current price of $8277 per ton [1] - The price has been in a downward trend since peaking at $10677 on May 20 [1] - London cocoa futures increased by 0.73% [1] Cotton Market - ICE cotton futures rose by 1.02% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of soda ash's main contract fluctuated significantly in July, with expectations of a weak adjustment in August due to macroeconomic factors and industry dynamics [1] Price Fluctuation - In July, the main soda ash contract experienced amplified price volatility influenced by external sentiment and market emotions [1] - Early in the month, optimistic expectations regarding anti-involution policies led to a rapid price increase, but by the end of July, weaker-than-expected macro policies cooled market sentiment, causing prices to decline [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The soda ash production load decreased month-on-month, but downstream purchasing intentions remained weak, resulting in soft terminal demand [1] - Both industry inventory and delivery inventory increased month-on-month, indicating significant absolute inventory pressure [1] - The upcoming supply side is expected to show limited contraction, while new capacity releases will gradually reveal supply pressure in the future [1] - Demand may also contract, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector, leading to further pressure on the market [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - External sentiment continues to impact prices, with expectations of a high probability of weak adjustments in the soda ash market in August [1] - The logic of the 09 contract transitioning to physical delivery is under pressure due to tight delivery inventory and difficulties in spot sales [1] - Currently, the price difference between SA09 and SA01 is weak, and further weakening is limited after the main contract shifts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in coking coal futures and the impact of the fourth round of price increases for coke on steel mills, questioning their ability to sustain these costs [1] Group 1: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal futures have experienced a substantial drop, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] - The decline in coking coal prices may affect the overall profitability of steel manufacturers [1] Group 2: Coke Price Increases - The fourth round of price increases for coke has been implemented, raising concerns about the financial strain on steel mills [1] - Steel mills are facing challenges in absorbing the increased costs of coke, which could lead to further adjustments in production strategies [1]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Short - term rubber prices are affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances and continue to rebound. It is recommended to wait and see for the short term, and pay attention to the increase in raw materials after the weather in the main producing areas improves [2]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 25, the price of Yunnan state - owned new rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 350 yuan/ton to 15350 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.33%. The basis of whole milk (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 10 to - 235, with a growth rate of 4.08%. Other prices also had different degrees of changes [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 30 to - 765, with a growth rate of 3.77%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 to - 125, with a decrease rate of 4.17% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production was 272.2 thousand tons, an increase of 166.5 thousand tons compared with the previous month, with a growth rate of 157.52%. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires decreased by 0.12 to 75.87%, and the weekly开工 rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.08 to 65.02% [2]. - **Inventory Change**: The bonded area inventory increased by 4006 to 636383, with a growth rate of 0.63%. The factory warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 707 to 37398, with a growth rate of 1.93% [2]. Group 2: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Last week, the polysilicon futures price was strong. After the price increased significantly, the arbitrage window opened, and the hedging enthusiasm of upstream enterprises increased. It is expected that the price will return to the cost range of 45,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton. If the volatility of options falls, consider buying put options. Pay attention to the smoothness of the price downward transmission mechanism and the implementation of capacity integration and production regulation in the long - term [4]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 25, the average price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.09%. The basis of N - type material (average price) increased by 3240 to - 4525, with a growth rate of 41.73% [4]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract decreased by 2740 to 51025, with a decrease rate of 5.10%. The PS2506 - PS2507 spread decreased by 50 to - 75, with a decrease rate of 200.00% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly polysilicon production increased by 0.25 to 2.55 million tons, with a growth rate of 10.87%. The monthly polysilicon production increased by 0.49 to 10.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 5.10% [4]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory decreased by 0.6 to 24.3 million tons, with a decrease rate of 2.41%. The silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.85 to 17.87 million pieces, with a growth rate of 11.55% [4]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Last week, the industrial silicon futures price was affected by coking coal and polysilicon futures and once hit the daily limit, then fluctuated at a high level. The production increased slightly, but the demand is expected to decline by about 3%. Pay attention to the increase in warehouse receipts after the arbitrage window opens. If large - scale enterprises resume production, polysilicon prices fall, or warehouse receipts continue to increase, short positions can be considered [5]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On July 25, the price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 10100 yuan/ton. The basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) decreased by 35 to 375, with a decrease rate of 8.54% [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 15 to - 45, with a growth rate of 25.00%. The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 10 to 65, with a growth rate of 18.18% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production decreased by 4.14 to 30.08 million tons, with a decrease rate of 12.10%. The national starting rate decreased by 6.57 to 51.23%, with a decrease rate of 11.37% [5]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.25 to 12.61 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.02%. The social inventory decreased by 1.2 to 53.5 million tons, with a decrease rate of 2.19% [5]. Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - **Soda Ash**: In the short - term, the soda ash futures price fluctuates sharply under the influence of policies and news, deviating from its own fundamental logic. The supply is in an obvious surplus pattern, and the inventory is under pressure without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction. - **Glass**: The glass futures price is boosted by policies and news. The spot market is strong, but the current fundamentals are in the summer rainy season off - peak, and the rigid demand is under pressure. The industry needs capacity clearance in the long - term [6]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: On July 25, the North China glass quotation increased by 30 to 1250 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 2.46%. The glass 2509 contract increased by 55 to 1362, with a growth rate of 4.21% [6]. - **Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The East China soda ash quotation increased by 70 to 1350 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 5.47%. The soda ash 2509 contract increased by 32 to 1440, with a growth rate of 2.11% [6]. - **Supply**: The soda ash starting rate decreased by 1.28% to 83.02%. The weekly soda ash production decreased by 0.9 to 72.38 million tons, with a decrease rate of 1.28% [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory warehouse inventory decreased by 304.9 to 61890,000 weight boxes, with a decrease rate of 4.70%. The soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 4.1 to 186.46 million tons, with a decrease rate of 2.15% [6]. Group 5: Log Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Last week, the log futures price fluctuated. Recently, black building materials commodities have rebounded, but the log futures price fluctuates repeatedly due to weak demand. The expected increase in arrivals this week and the inventory accumulation last week put pressure on the spot market. Pay attention to market sentiment changes and policy expectations [7]. Summary of Related Catalogs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 25, the log 2511 contract increased by 3.5 to 838, with a growth rate of 0.42%. The price of 3.9A small radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 720 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.02 to 7.162, with a growth rate of 0%. The import cost calculated at a 15% over - length was 802.73 [7]. - **Supply**: In June, the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 53, with a decrease rate of 8.62%. The national log inventory increased by 7 to 329 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 2.17% [7]. - **Demand**: The log daily average outbound volume increased by 0.36 to 6.24 million cubic meters [7].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term as the concentrate processing fees are rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply [2]. Summary by Related Content Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are challenging smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power industry showing positive growth, automobile production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak [2]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,830 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 105 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 9,855 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 49.92 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 124,825 tons with a daily change of - 25 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply [2]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,920 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,841 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 0.71 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 115,325 tons with a daily change of - 1,275 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,815 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 10 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,646 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 2.26 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 444,800 tons with a daily change of 6,350 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 123,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,360 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,470 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 202.01 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 205,872 tons with a daily change of - 2,220 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,810 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 170 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,023 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 24.27 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 263,150 tons with a daily change of 650 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 268,540 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 270 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 34,660 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 145.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,690 tons with a daily change of - 25 tons [2].

Core Viewpoint - The main contract for lithium carbonate has shifted from a decline to an increase, with a daily rise of 2.00%, currently priced at 72,960 yuan per ton, after previously dropping nearly 3% [1] Group 1 - The lithium carbonate main contract experienced a price increase after a period of decline [1] - The current price of lithium carbonate is reported at 72,960 yuan per ton [1] - The daily increase in price is noted to be 2.00% [1] Group 2 - Prior to the increase, the price had dropped close to 3% [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and mixed factors of stable downstream demand in power and positive growth in auto production and sales, while slowdown in home appliance output growth and weak real estate [2] - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term as concentrate processing fees are rising, market expects improved concentrate supply and possible recovery in smelting supply, with mixed downstream demand factors similar to copper [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed higher. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power industry growing, auto production and sales positive, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate in a range. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 77,840 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,678 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 58.71 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 121,000 tons, and the daily change was 10,525 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and possible recovery in smelting supply. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,130 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 25 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,738 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 3.20 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 121,350 tons, and the daily change was 2,750 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,455 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 110 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,589 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 3.28 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 423,525 tons, and the daily change was 6,550 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 119,880 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,370 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,065 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 197.77 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 207,288 tons, and the daily change was 708 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,845 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 205 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,978 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 27.85 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 269,225 tons, and the daily change was - 1,850 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 261,920 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,260 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,070 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 33.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,035 tons, and the daily change was 55 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Multiple factors are intertwined, with low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, but the real estate sector remains weak. Attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a possible recovery in smelting supply this year. Domestic downstream demand shows mixed trends, with the real estate sector being weak. Attention should be paid to factors such as US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and household appliance production [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are challenging smelting output. Domestic downstream demand in the power and automotive sectors is growing positively, while the household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Copper prices may range - bound fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 77,980 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,637 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 64.49 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 110,475 tons, and the daily change was 850 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a possible recovery in smelting supply this year. Domestic downstream demand in the automotive and infrastructure sectors is growing, while the household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations in the short term [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,010 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,700 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 8.95 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 118,600 tons, and the daily change was 5,200 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,455 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 100 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,576 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 2.20 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 416,975 tons, and the daily change was 11,425 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 118,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,700 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,990 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 207.51 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 206,580 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 200 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,978 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 31.02 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 271,075 tons, and the daily change was 10,125 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 262,300 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,510 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 32,990 dollars/ton, the LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 108.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 1,980 tons, and the daily change was - 115 tons [2].

Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures fell by 1.57%, while ICE white sugar futures decreased by 1.96% [1] - ICE coffee "C" futures rose by 5.43%, and Robusta coffee futures increased by 8.71% [2] - Brazil's largest Arabica coffee bean region reported zero rainfall for the week, below the historical average of 1.4 mm [2] Group 2 - New York cocoa futures increased by 1.22%, reaching $8277 per ton, continuing a downward trend since peaking at $10677 on May 20 [2] - London cocoa futures rose by 0.73% [2] - ICE cotton futures gained 1.02% [2]