期货研究

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软商品日报-20250714
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 02:37
商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号:F0289189 投资咨询证号:Z0011152 联系电话:0571-28132619 邮箱:zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-07-12 | 2025-07-13 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖(美元) | 16.56 | 16.56 | 0.00% | | | 美棉花(美元) | 67.42 | 67.42 | 0.00% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-07-10 | 2025-07-11 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖(南宁) | 6050.0 | 6060.0 | 0.17% | | | 白糖(昆明) | 5895.0 | 5905.0 | 0.17% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.46% | | | 棉花(新疆) | 15150.0 | 15200.0 | 0.33% ...
LPG:需求疲软,弱势震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 02:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The LPG market is experiencing weak demand and is in a weak oscillatory state [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: The PG2508 contract closed at 4,156 yesterday with a -1.38% daily increase and 4,175 in the night session with a 0.46% increase. The PG2509 contract closed at 4,070 yesterday with a -0.97% daily increase and 4,089 in the night session with a 0.47% increase. The trading volume of PG2508 was 79,971, an increase of 24,856 from the previous day, and the position was 46,491, a decrease of 4,998. The trading volume of PG2509 was 25,300, an increase of 8,258 from the previous day, and the position was 40,184, an increase of 1,277 [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 contract was 494 yesterday, compared to 436 the previous day. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 08 contract was 544 yesterday, compared to 486 the previous day [3]. - **Industrial Chain Important Price Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 60.9%, down from 65.5% last week. The MTBE operating rate was 66.9%, up from 65.1%. The alkylation operating rate was 44.6%, down from 46.2% [3]. Market Trends - **Trend Intensity**: The LPG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Market News - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On July 10, 2025, the expected price of propane for the August Saudi CP was 564 dollars per ton, down 1 dollar per ton from the previous trading day. The expected price of butane was 534 dollars per ton, also down 1 dollar per ton. For the September Saudi CP, the expected price of propane was 562 dollars per ton, down 1 dollar per ton, and the expected price of butane was 532 dollars per ton, down 1 dollar per ton [10]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, with some starting as early as 2023 and some ending as late as August 2025 [9].
沥青:小步上移
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 02:52
商 品 研 究 沥青:小步上移 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 2025 年 7 月 9 日 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,662 | 1.02% | 3,662 | 0.00% | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,620 | 0.64% | 3,659 | 1.08% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2507 | 手 | 690 | (423) | 1,132 | (377) | | | BU2508 | 手 | 2,968 | (378) | 16,845 | (808) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 91740 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 价差变动 ...
PVC:短期偏强,但上方空间有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 03:21
Report Investment Rating - The trend strength of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [-2 indicates the most bearish, 2 indicates the most bullish] [4] Core View - PVC is short - term bullish but has limited upside potential. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate, and the market will still short the chlor - alkali profit in the later stage [1][2] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of PVC is 4871, the East China spot price is 4750, the basis is - 121, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 73 [1] Spot News - The domestic PVC spot market price has a narrow adjustment, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals remain unchanged. This week, enterprise maintenance has increased, production has slightly decreased, the downstream market is in the off - season, industry inventory remains high, foreign trade exports are mainly for delivery, the futures market is pulled up by the strong fluctuations of sectors such as black, but market transactions remain light [1] Market Condition Analysis - Crude oil prices are still strong, and ethylene - based costs provide support, making PVC short - term bullish [2] - The high - production structure is difficult to change in the short term. PVC maintenance volume is lower than the same period in 2023. Chlor - alkali costs are declining, and the demand for caustic soda in 2025 has good support, maintaining high profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain compensates for chlorine with alkali, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to losses. In addition, there will be more capacity put into production, especially in June - July, with an expected new capacity of 1.1 million tons [2] - The pressure of high inventory persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased. Exports are still affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. India's BIS policy for PVC imports may be postponed for 6 months, and the Indian Trade Remedy Authority may make a final decision on the anti - dumping investigation of imported PVC in the first half of July. Domestically, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low willingness to stock up [2]
LPG:短期宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:49
商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 19 日 LPG:短期宽幅震荡 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2507 | 4,382 | -0.36% | 4,514 | 3.01% | | 期货 | PG2508 | 4,320 | 0.02% | 4,469 | 3.45% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2507 | 98,855 | -14358 | 37,734 | -3755 | | | PG2508 | 52,569 | 3085 | 53,341 | 3057 | | 价差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 广州国产气对07合约价差 | 348 | | 332 | | | | 广州进口气对07合约价差 | 418 | | 402 | | | 产业链重要 价格数据 | | 本周 | | 上周 | | | | PDH开工率 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250619
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:34
2025年06月19日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石:预期反复,区间震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢:宏观情绪扰动,宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板:宏观情绪扰动,宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁:板块情绪共振,宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅:板块情绪共振,宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤:宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤:需求仍待释放,宽幅震荡 | 9 | | 原木:基差修复,宽幅震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 19 日 铁矿石:预期反复,区间震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com (1) 财联社 6 月 16 日电,国家统计局数据显示,1—5 月份,全国房地产开发投资 36234 亿元,同 比下降 10.7%。(来自财联社 APP) 【趋势强度】 铁矿石趋势强度:0 注:趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间数。强弱程度分类如下:弱、偏弱、中性 ...
镍不锈钢早报:接近支撑位-20250618
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 01:54
[Table_ReportType] 镍不锈钢早报 期货研究报告 商品研究 走势评级: 镍——滚动做空 不锈钢——观望 楼家豪 从业资格证号:F3080463 投资咨询证号:Z0018424 联系电话:0571-28132615 邮箱:loujiahao@cindasc.com 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编:311200 接近支撑位 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期: 2025 年 6 月 18 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_S 宏观&行业消息: ummary]【印尼华星镍业年产 4 万吨高冰镍项目取得进展】2025 年 6 月 14 日,分公司承建的华星镍业(印尼)有限公司年产 4 万吨金属高冰项 目在业主、监理共同见证下顺利完成 101 原料堆棚首根钢柱吊装作业,标 志着备料系统装置正式进入主体钢结构施工的全新阶段。项目位于印尼东 南苏拉维西省科拉卡县波马拉镇 IPIP 工业园。分公司承建内容包括:五个 区域:100(备料系统)、200(冶炼区域)、300(辅助工程)、500(冶炼厂给排 水系统)、600(公辅工 ...
短纤:关注成本波动率放大,高位震荡,瓶片:关注成本波动率放大,高位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 05:16
2025 年 06 月 17 日 短纤:关注成本波动率放大,高位震荡 瓶片:关注成本波动率放大,高位震荡 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅(联系人) 从业资格号:F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2507 | 6594 | ୧୧30 | ୧4 | PF07-08 | 84 | 50 | 34 | | PF | 短纤2508 | 6510 | 6480 | 30 | PF08-09 | ୧୫ | 220 | -152 | | | 短纤2509 | 6442 | 6260 | 182 | PF基差 | 140 | 140 | 0 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 281488 | 286357 | -4869 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 650 | 6.620 | 30 | | | 短纤成交量 ...
燃料油:夜盘回撤,预计短期强势暂缓,低硫燃料油:短线转弱,外盘现货高低硫价差
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:39
低硫燃料油:短线转弱,外盘现货高低硫价差 小幅收窄 2025 年 6 月 17 日 燃料油:夜盘回撤,预计短期强势暂缓 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2507 | 元/成 | 3,317 | 2. 41% | | 3.280 | 2.79% | | | | FU2508 | 元/吨 | 3.316 | 2. 79% | | 3, 278 | 2. 31% | | | | LU2507 | 元/晚 | 3.925 | 1.19% | | 3,905 | 0.77% | | | | LU2508 | 元/吨 | 3.874 | 0.77% | | 3.854 | 0.76% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日特仓 | 特色变动 | | | | FU2507 | 手 | 103.366 | (55.013) | | 39.159 | (4.350) | | | | FU250 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250613
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 01:23
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are subject to wide fluctuations under the influence of macro sentiment [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][10]. - Silicomanganese is expected to have a weak oscillation as the quotes of mining enterprises move down [2][10]. - Coke is expected to have wide fluctuations [2][14]. - Coking coal is expected to have wide fluctuations as safety inspections become stricter [2][15]. - Steam coal is expected to have wide fluctuations as demand still needs to be released [2][19]. - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 704.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan or -0.42%. The positions decreased by 12,525 hands. Among spot prices, the prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures declined, with decreases of -0.70% and -0.87% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, both showed certain changes. Spot prices generally decreased, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on June 12, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 10.89 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 4.1 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 21.53 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 12.4 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 4.77 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 9.25 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 9.06 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 1.04 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 14.07 tons. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, with month-on-month increases of 1.1% and 3.7%, and year-on-year increases of 11.6% and 11.2%. In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%; from January to May, the cumulative steel exports were 48.469 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 7.9%; from January to May, the cumulative steel imports were 2.553 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%. In late May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 23 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.9% month-on-month; 21.04 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.913 million tons, a daily output decrease of 3.5% month-on-month; and 23.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.177 million tons, a daily output increase of 2.5% month-on-month [6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures declined. Spot prices also decreased. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross-variety spreads all had corresponding changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 12, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions were reported, and the prices of some grades decreased. The price quotes of silicomanganese 6517 in the north and south were also reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the procurement volume of silicomanganese and 75B ferrosilicon in June compared with May. Comilog announced a decrease in the quotation of Gabon blocks to China in July 2025, and United Mining (CML) also decreased its quotation to China [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook; the trend intensity of silicomanganese is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of coking coal and coke futures declined, with decreases of -2.17% and -2.03% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were certain changes. Spot prices were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [15]. - **Price and Position Situation**: The quotes of coking coal in northern ports were reported, and the CCI metallurgical coal index on June 12 was also provided. In terms of positions, on June 12, from the positions of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 4,909 hands, and the short positions increased by 3,349 hands; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract decreased by 803 hands, and the short positions increased by 304 hands [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both -1, indicating a bearish outlook [17]. Steam Coal - **Yesterday's Domestic Market**: The steam coal ZC2507 had no trading yesterday. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 18 lots, and the positions were 0 [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The quotes of foreign trade steam coal in southern ports and domestic steam coal production areas were reported. In terms of positions, on June 12, from the positions of the top 20 members of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the long and short positions of the steam coal ZC2507 contract both decreased by 0 hands [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts all showed certain fluctuations. The prices of log spot products also had different degrees of changes, with some showing slight decreases [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27].