Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2601 is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are poor and steel prices are weakly seeking the bottom [2]. - Rebar fundamentals are weak. Steel prices are under pressure and are expected to continue the oscillating bottom - seeking trend, with cost support being a relative positive factor. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term is weakly oscillating, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is weakly oscillating. The view is to pay attention to the MA5 line pressure, with the core logic of poor fundamentals and steel prices seeking the bottom weakly. There are also explanations for time - cycle and amplitude calculation [2]. Market Driving Logic - Rebar fundamentals are weak. Production is increasing, inventory is high, supply pressure is growing. Although demand has a seasonal improvement, it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years and will weaken at the end of the peak season. In the situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure. Cost support is a positive factor, and the trend is expected to continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high - Propylene supply is expected to contract, and the oversupply situation has improved [1] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2512 closed at 4,293 with a daily increase of 0.16% and a night - session close of 4,286 with a decrease of 0.16%. PG2601 closed at 4,213 with a daily increase of 0.21% and a night - session close of 4,206 with a decrease of 0.17%. PL2601 closed at 6,009 with a daily decrease of 1.14% and a night - session close of 6,006 with a decrease of 0.05%. PL2602 closed at 6,078 with a daily decrease of 1.14% and a night - session close of 6,076 with a decrease of 0.03% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: PG2512 had a trading volume of 73,634 (an increase of 5,847 from the previous day) and an open interest of 106,040 (an increase of 1,287). PG2601 had a trading volume of 11,489 (an increase of 1,510) and an open interest of 28,420 (an increase of 2,219). PL2601 had a trading volume of 23,828 (an increase of 10,938) and an open interest of 7,956 (a decrease of 1,107). PL2602 had a trading volume of 17,031 (an increase of 11,227) and an open interest of 5,266 (a decrease of 2) [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG12 contract was 107 (compared to 114 the previous day), and the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG12 contract was 157 (compared to 164 the previous day). The spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and the PL01 contract were - 109, - 59, and - 84 respectively, compared to - 138, - 78, and - 53 the previous day [1] - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate was 73.9% (compared to 71.7% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 68.0% (compared to 67.8% last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 43.6% (compared to 44.9% last week) [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] 3.3 Market Information - On October 31, 2025, the December CP paper cargo price for propane was 487 USD/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), and for butane was 472 USD/ton (a decrease of 4 USD/ton from the previous trading day). The January CP paper cargo price for propane was 494 USD/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day) [5] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different capacities and maintenance time ranges [6] - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans, including those of Huaxing Petrochemical, Rizhao (Overseas CNOOC), etc., with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, and maintenance time ranges [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The November 2025 CP official price of LPG is slightly higher than market expectations, while the supply - demand of propylene is relatively loose, with short - term weak and volatile trends [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2512 closed at 4,286 yesterday with a - 0.60% daily increase and 4,307 in the night session with a 0.49% increase; PG2601 closed at 4,204 yesterday with a - 0.57% daily increase and 4,220 in the night session with a 0.38% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,078 yesterday with a - 0.88% daily increase and 6,060 in the night session with a - 0.30% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,148 yesterday with a - 0.92% daily increase and 6,127 in the night session with a - 0.34% increase [3]. - **Positions and Trading Volumes**: PG2512's trading volume yesterday was 67,787, a decrease of 14,899 from the previous day, and its position was 104,753, an increase of 3,034; PG2601's trading volume was 9,979, a decrease of 3,832, and its position was 26,201, an increase of 1,942; PL2601's trading volume was 12,890, a decrease of 26,010, and its position was 9,063, a decrease of 1,181; PL2602's trading volume was 5,804, a decrease of 5,527, and its position was 5,268, a decrease of 5 [3]. - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG12 contract was 114 yesterday (88 the day before); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG12 contract was 164 (138 the day before); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 138 (- 147 the day before); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 78 (- 72 the day before); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 53 (- 107 the day before) [3]. - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.9% (71.7% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 68.0% (67.8% last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 43.6% (44.9% last week) [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. 3.3 Market Information - Saudi Aramco's November 2025 CP prices: propane is 475 dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 dollars/ton from last month; butane is 460 dollars/ton, a decrease of 15 dollars/ton from last month. The equivalent landed US - dollar cost for propane is 560 dollars/ton and for butane is 545 dollars/ton; the equivalent RMB landed cost for propane is about 4,394 yuan/ton and for butane is about 4,276 yuan/ton [7]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device and LPG factory device maintenance plans. For example, Ningbo Jinfafa New Materials Co., Ltd.'s PDH Phase I will be under maintenance from September 29, 2025, to mid - November 2025; Huaxing Petrochemical's whole - plant maintenance started on October 22, 2024, and is expected to end in November 2025 [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for eggs is maintained at "Adjustment" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report provides the latest data on egg fundamentals and related industry chain, including futures prices, price differences, spot prices of eggs, and prices of related feed and livestock products, as well as the trend strength of eggs [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2511 is 2,918 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 2.10%, a trading volume decrease of 15,247, and an open - interest decrease of 21,543; the closing price of egg2601 is 3,327 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 2.18%, a trading volume increase of 4,235, and an open - interest decrease of 2,656 [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The egg 11 - 12 price difference is - 216 (previous day: - 210), and the egg 11 - 1 price difference is - 409 (previous day: - 426) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.00 yuan/jin, 2.80 yuan/jin, 2.90 yuan/jin, and 3.18 yuan/jin respectively; the spot prices of corn and soybean meal are 2,300 yuan/ton and 2,960 yuan/ton respectively; the pig price in Henan is 12.48 yuan/kg [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of eggs is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral view [1]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Asphalt: Fluctuating with Oil" and dated October 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - The analyst is Wang Hanxi, with investment consulting qualification number Z0019174 and email wanghanxi@gtht.com [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data Futures - BU2511 closed at 3,266 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.93%, and 3,268 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.06% increase. Its trading volume was 40,849 lots (a decrease of 4,645 lots), and the open interest was 35,326 lots (a decrease of 9,329 lots) [2] - BU2512 closed at 3,190 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.73% increase, and 3,198 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.25% increase. Its trading volume was 40,280 lots (an increase of 9,532 lots), and the open interest was 78,188 lots (a decrease of 3,173 lots) [2] - The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 13,040 lots with no change [2] Spreads - The basis (Shandong - 11) was 74 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from the previous day [2] - The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 76 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan from the previous day [2] - The Shandong - South China spread was - 60 (up 30 from the previous day), and the East China - South China spread was 70 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan from the previous day) [2] Spot Market - The Shandong wholesale price was 3,340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,347 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,466 yuan/ton [2] - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,470 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,419 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,458 yuan/ton [2] Operating and Inventory Rates - As of October 20, 2025, the refinery operating rate was 36.58%, up 0.42% from October 16; the refinery inventory rate was 29.81%, up 0.47% from October 16 [2] Group 4: Trend Strength - The asphalt trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the value range from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9] Group 5: Market Information - According to Longzhong's tracking of 92 enterprises, the domestic asphalt production plan of local refineries in November 2025 is 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 292,000 tons (an 18.2% increase in the decrease), and a year - on - year decrease of 91,000 tons (a 6.5% decrease) [12] - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factory warehouses was 760,000 tons, a 1.3% decrease from October 16. The factory warehouses in different regions showed mixed changes, with obvious destocking in the Southwest and South China regions [12] - As of October 20, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.394 million tons, a 2.0% decrease from October 16. Most social warehouses in major regions decreased, with obvious destocking in Shandong and the Northwest regions [12]

| | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2511 | 6064 | 6118 | -54 | PF11-12 | 28 | 26 | 2 | | PF | 短纤2512 | ୧03୧ | 6092 | -56 | PF12-01 | -12 | 28 | -40 | | | 短纤2601 | 6048 | 6064 | -16 | PF主力基美 | 254 | 213 | 41 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 232363 | 276286 | -43923 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 290 | 6, 305 | -15 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 200864 | 187340 | 13524 | 短纤产销率 | 79% | 46% | 33% | | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 瓶片2511 | 5562 | 5608 | -46 | PR11-12 | 6 | -2 | 8 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black - series commodities in the futures market, suggesting that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations, while logs will have oscillatory and repeated trends [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's closing price was 773.5 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (- 0.39%); for futures, the position of l2601 was 535,578 hands, an increase of 27,213 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined, with a 5 - yuan/ton drop in most imported ore varieties. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is 0 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For RB2601 of rebar, the previous day's closing price was 3,049 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.16%); for HC2601 of hot - rolled coil, it was 3,219 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%). In terms of production and inventory, production of rebar decreased by 2.24 tons, hot - rolled coil by 1.45 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 73.74 tons, hot - rolled coil by 24.58 tons [9][10]. - **News**: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. The trend strength for both is 0 [10][11]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Trend**: Cost - supported at the bottom, wide - range fluctuations [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: For example, the closing price of silicon iron 2511 was 5478, up 102; the closing price of manganese silicon 2601 was 5754, up 8. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [13]. - **News**: On October 16, prices of different grades of silicon iron and manganese silicon in various regions changed. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of manganese silicon showed some adjustments. The trend strength for both is 0 [13][15][16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Expectations are repeated, wide - range fluctuations [2][18][19] - **Fundamentals**: For JM2601 of coking coal, the previous day's closing price was 1185.5 yuan/ton, up 34.5 yuan/ton (3.0%); for J2601 of coke, it was 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton (1.9%). Spot prices and basis spreads also changed [19]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength for both is 0 [20]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillatory and repeated [2][21] - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different degrees of change. Spot prices of various log varieties in different regions were mostly stable [22]. - **News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is - 1 [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the latest fundamental data, trend strength, and market information of asphalt. The asphalt market shows a situation of flat shipment, with changes in futures prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory levels [1][2][11][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of BU2511 yesterday was 3,279 yuan/ton, up 0.89%, and the night - session closing price was 3,255 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The closing price of BU2512 yesterday was 3,197 yuan/ton, up 0.41%, and the night - session closing price was 3,181 yuan/ton, down 0.50% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Positions**: The trading volume of BU2511 yesterday was 100,365 lots, a decrease of 12,450 lots, and the position was 71,636 lots, a decrease of 11,147 lots. The trading volume of BU2512 yesterday was 43,913 lots, an increase of 639 lots, and the position was 81,196 lots, a decrease of 1,198 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts of asphalt in the whole market yesterday were 36,370 lots, with no change [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis (Shandong - 11) was 141 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan compared with the previous day; the 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was - 30 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan; the East China - South China spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. - **Operating and Inventory Rates**: As of October 16, the refinery operating rate was 36.16%, a decrease of 6.61% compared with October 13, and the refinery inventory rate was 29.34%, an increase of 0.64% [2]. Trend Strength The trend strength of asphalt is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [11]. Market Information - **Production**: In the week from October 10 - 16, 2025, the weekly total output of domestic asphalt was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons (2.7%) compared with the previous week, and an increase of 139,000 tons (29.0%) compared with the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to October was 2.6081 billion tons, an increase of 333,300 tons (14.6%) compared with the same period last year [16]. - **Factory Warehouse Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses in China was 770,000 tons, a decrease of 2.4% compared with October 13. The inventory reduction in East China and Shandong was obvious due to intermittent shutdowns of major refineries and good shipping [16]. - **Social Warehouse Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses in China was 1.423 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% compared with October 13. The inventory in the northern region decreased significantly due to concentrated shipments after the weather improved [16].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 弱现实格局未变，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局有所变化，螺纹钢产量持续下降，供应延续收缩但旺季减产动能不强，整体降 幅不大，而库存相对偏高，利好效应有限。与此同时，节后螺纹需求如期改善 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to see a slight price correction due to weak current situations and weakening expectations [2][8] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations with cost as the bottom support [2][13] - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][16][17] - Logs are expected to have repeated fluctuations [2][19] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of I2601 was 776.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton (-0.70%). The trading volume was 508,365 hands, up 8,566 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined slightly, and some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [6] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [6] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,034 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.85%), and HC2601 was 3,212 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton (-0.86%). Spot prices in various regions decreased, and some basis and spread values changed [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: In early October 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month, pig iron increased by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. Steel inventories increased. In August 2025, steel exports decreased slightly, and imports increased [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and some basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values also changed [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the market, and a large steel mill's inquiry prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in October changed compared to September [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2601 was 1,151 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.2%), and J2601 was 1,642 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (-0.8%). Spot prices were mostly stable, and some basis and spread values changed [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [18] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke is 0 (neutral), and that of coking coal is 1 (slightly bullish) [18] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures contract prices, trading volumes, and open interests of logs changed, and spot prices in different regions were mostly stable [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline [22] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]