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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250812
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 01:59
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, with investment advice such as "oscillating repeatedly," "broadly oscillating," and "bullishly oscillating" [5][10][14]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the previous day's position was 271,889 lots, a decrease of 36,188 lots; spot prices of imported and domestic ores all increased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating due to sector sentiment resonance [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,250 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.09% and 1.29% respectively; spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month; in July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year; in late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, pig iron decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, and steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month; according to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, the output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 7.9 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 23.47 tons [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,830 yuan/ton and 5,820 yuan/ton respectively; the previous day's futures closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,100 yuan/ton and 6,112 yuan/ton respectively; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,450 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 8, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Qinghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Gansu increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the total manganese ore inventory increased by 8.83 tons month-on-month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Bullishly oscillating [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,106.5 yuan/ton and 1,681 yuan/ton, up 3.5% and 1.7% respectively; most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [19]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease; most spot prices remained unchanged [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [23].
镍:矿端支撑逻辑削弱,冶炼端逻辑限制弹性不锈钢,多空博弈加剧,钢价震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-10 12:47
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, it is expected to trade in a narrow - range with limited upside and downside, and investors should focus on range - bound trading and double - selling option strategies. The support from the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts price elasticity. [4] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to oscillate as the multi - empty game intensifies. Bulls focus on macro - expectations and marginal improvements, while bears focus on weak reality and short - term valuations. [5] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high levels in the short term, following coking coal in the short run, and pay attention to the upstream factory resumption rhythm. [28][33] - For polysilicon, the market sentiment has cooled, and the price may correct. It is recommended to buy on dips in the third quarter. [28][34] - For lithium carbonate, due to the shutdown of the Jianxiawo mine, the price is expected to rise. If overseas supply increases to fill the gap, the price may fall after the project resumes. [54][56] - For palm oil, with strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on dips. [2][71] - For soybean oil, new export drivers have emerged, and investors should pay attention to the results of Sino - US negotiations. [2][72] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Market Outlook - Nickel price is expected to trade in a narrow range, with limited upside due to increasing global refined nickel inventory and long - term low - cost supply expectations, but difficult to fall sharply in the short term. [4] - Stainless steel price will oscillate as the multi - empty game intensifies, with bulls and bears having different focuses. [5] Inventory Changes - Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons. [6][7] - Nickel - iron inventory at the end of July decreased by 10% month - on - month but increased by 56% year - on - year. [8] - Stainless steel social total inventory decreased by 0.44% week - on - week. [8] Market News - Multiple events such as potential export restrictions, project startups, environmental violations, and policy changes in Indonesia have occurred. [9][10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Trends - Industrial silicon futures oscillated strongly, while spot prices declined. Polysilicon futures rose and then fell, and spot transactions showed no significant improvement. [28] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Industrial silicon industry inventory turned to accumulation, with increased production in the southwest and northwest regions. The demand from polysilicon and organic silicon sectors increased marginally. [29][30] - Polysilicon supply increased in the short term, and inventory started to accumulate. The demand from the silicon wafer sector increased slightly, but the upstream price increase was not smoothly transmitted to the downstream. [30][31] Market Outlook - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the upstream factory resumption rhythm, and it is recommended to short at high levels. The expected price range next week is 8,200 - 9,000 yuan/ton. [32][33] - Polysilicon: The price may correct, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the third quarter. The expected price range next week is 47,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. [34] Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - Lithium carbonate futures prices increased significantly, and the basis of long - term contracts turned negative. [54] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The Jianxiawo mine of CATL will stop production, and there is no short - term resumption plan. The supply of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate from overseas increased, and the demand from the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets continued to recover. The social inventory increased, with upstream de - stocking and downstream inventory accumulation. [55] Market Outlook - The price is expected to rise due to the mine shutdown. If overseas supply fills the gap, the price may fall after the project resumes. The expected price range of the futures main contract is 75,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. [56][57] Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Market Outlook - Palm oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on dips. [2][71] - Soybean oil: New export drivers have emerged, and investors should pay attention to the results of Sino - US negotiations. [2][72]
燃料油:再次转弱,短期震荡走势为主,低硫燃料油:持续弱于高硫,外盘现货高低硫
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 01:45
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - Fuel oil has weakened again and is expected to show a short - term volatile trend. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the overseas market maintains a downward trend [1]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - **Prices**: For FU2509, the closing price was 2,826 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.32%, and the settlement price was 2,833 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.50%. For FU2510, the closing price was 2,842 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.50%, and the settlement price was 2,846 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.28%. For LU2509, the closing price was 3,510 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.99%, and the settlement price was 3,520 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.34%. For LU2510, the closing price was 3,526 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.34%, and the settlement price was 3,545 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.28% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For FU2509, the trading volume was 326,249 lots with an increase of 64,490 lots, and the open interest was 134,066 lots with a decrease of 1,234 lots. For FU2510, the trading volume was 154,380 lots with an increase of 60,703 lots, and the open interest was 88,717 lots with an increase of 5,039 lots. For LU2509, the trading volume was 2,534 lots with an increase of 107 lots, and the open interest was 7,930 lots with a decrease of 946 lots. For LU2510, the trading volume was 78,746 lots with an increase of 9,518 lots, and the open interest was 49,228 lots with a decrease of 1,027 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts of fuel oil (FU) were 92,710 with a decrease of 15,000, and for low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) were 26,050 with a decrease of 14,000 [1]. Spot Prices - **Singapore MOPS**: The price of high - sulfur (3.5%S) was 403.5 US dollars/ton with a daily decline of 0.76%, and the price of low - sulfur (0.5%S) was 488.0 US dollars/ton with a daily decline of 1.52% [1]. - **Singapore Bunker**: The price of high - sulfur (3.5%S) was 417.0 US dollars/ton with a daily decline of 0.71%, and the price of low - sulfur (0.5%S) was 503.0 US dollars/ton with a daily decline of 1.37% [1]. - **Other Bunker Markets**: Similar price declines were observed in other bunker markets such as Fujeirah, AJ, Shanghai, Tokyo, and South Korea [1]. Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The FU09 - 10 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was - 13 yuan/ton with a difference of 3 yuan/ton. The LU09 - 10 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was - 25 yuan/ton with a difference of - 9 yuan/ton. The LU09 - FU09 spread was 684 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 687 yuan/ton with a difference of 3 yuan/ton [1]. - **Other Spreads**: The FU2509 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) spread was - 70.5 yuan/ton, with a change of 13.1 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The LU2509 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) spread was 7.1 yuan/ton, with a change of 19.1 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) spread was 84.5 US dollars/ton, with a decline of 4.5 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and the trend intensity of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0, indicating a neutral view on both [1].
沥青:震荡偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 01:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "Oscillating weakly" [1] Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows an oscillating and weakly downward trend, with a trend strength of 0 [1][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 decreased; trading volume and open interest had different changes, with BU2509's trading volume and open interest decreasing, and BU2510's trading volume and open interest increasing; the total market asphalt warehouse receipts remained unchanged [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 09), 09 - 10 inter - period spread, Shandong - South China spread, and East China - South China spread had different changes [2] - **Spot Market Data**: Shandong and Yangtze River Delta wholesale prices had different changes; refinery operating rates decreased by 0.07%, and refinery inventory rates decreased by 0.20% [2] Market Information - **Shipment Volume**: From July 30 to August 5, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 418,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Shandong's shipment volume decreased, while East China's increased [17] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: From July 31 to August 6, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% due to factors such as refinery production changes [17]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250806
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:35
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend predictions and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The trends include oscillating repeatedly, wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance or market information disturbances, and strong - side oscillations [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 798.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton with a 1.01% increase. The previous day's position decreased by 18,144 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types increased, with the exception of domestic ores in some regions. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8][9] - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,233 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.38%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,457 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton (1.89%). Production, inventory, and apparent demand data for rebar and hot - rolled coils in the week of July 31st showed different trends. The trend strength for both is 0 [8][9][10]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined. Other news includes steel production data from key steel enterprises in mid - July and price - related regulations [10][11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Wide - range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][13] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 80 yuan/ton, while the price of manganese ore decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. - **News**: There are price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, steel mill procurement information, and news about electricity prices and manganese ore shipment prices [14][15][17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillations [2][18] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased by 2.9% and 1.2% respectively. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke types changed. The trend strength for both is 0 [19]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [20]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][22] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different trends in terms of closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices of various log types remained mostly stable. The trend strength is 1 [23][25]. - **News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [25].
LPG:进口成本下行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 02:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene, including futures prices,持仓&成交, spreads, and key industrial chain data. It also provides market information such as Saudi CP expectations and domestic device maintenance plans [2][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: PG2509 closed at 3,965 with a daily decline of 0.95% and a night - session close of 3,923 with a decline of 1.06%; PG2510 closed at 4,404 with a daily decline of 0.83% and a night - session close of 4,367 with a decline of 0.84%; PL2601 closed at 6,474 with a daily decline of 1.08% and a night - session close of 6,460 with a decline of 0.22%; PL2602 closed at 6,561 with a daily decline of 0.73% and a night - session close of 6,521 with a decline of 0.61% [2] - **持仓&成交**: For PG2509, the trading volume was 67,049 (a decrease of 64,479) and the open interest was 89,961 (an increase of 4,242); for PG2510, the trading volume was 19,509 (a decrease of 11,819) and the open interest was 65,630 (a decrease of 737); for PL2601, the trading volume was 3,454 (an increase of 1,111) and the open interest was 4,575 (a decrease of 125); for PL2602, the trading volume was 77 (a decrease of 125) and the open interest was 1,127 (a decrease of 29) [2] - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 405 (previous day: 397); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 435 (previous day: 427); the spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and PL01 contract were - 269, - 124, and - 149 respectively (previous day: - 300, - 195, - 220) [2] - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: This week, the PDH operating rate was 72.6% (last week: 73.1%), the MTBE operating rate was 67.8% (last week: 69.0%), and the alkylation operating rate was 48.8% (last week: 46.9%) [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [10] 3.3 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On July 31, 2025, the expected price of propane in September was 528 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 498 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The expected price of propane in October was 543 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 513 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [11] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. starting maintenance in late November 2023, with the end time to be determined, etc. [12] - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many domestic liquefied gas factories have device maintenance plans, including Shandong's Shengli Heavy Oil, Haike Ruilin, etc., with different maintenance start and end times and loss volumes [12]
生猪:现货表现不及预期,近端弱势
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market performance of live pigs is below expectations, with near - term weakness. The market pressure is high due to factors such as the limited increase in demand and the planned increase in group slaughter volume in August. The September contract is expected to be mainly weak, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot prices**: The spot price in Henan is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Sichuan, it is 13,700 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Guangdong, it is 15,940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 300 [2] - **Futures prices**: The price of the live pig 2509 contract is 14,055 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 20; the live pig 2511 contract is 13,850 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 35; the live pig 2601 contract is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 [2] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 31,356 lots, an increase of 2311 from the previous day, and the open interest is 40,971 lots, a decrease of 4228 from the previous day; the live pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 24,661 lots, an increase of 7289 from the previous day, and an open interest of 51,204 lots, an increase of 583 from the previous day; the live pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 13,759 lots, a decrease of 3042 from the previous day, and an open interest of 40,395 lots, an increase of 180 from the previous day [2] - **Price differences**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is 375 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 120; the live pig 2511 contract basis is 580 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 135; the live pig 2601 contract basis is 250 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 65; the 9 - 11 spread is 205 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the 11 - 1 spread is - 330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 70 [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3] 3. Market Logic - The market had a consistent expectation of price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume - reduction and price - pulling were below expectations. There is panic among retail farmers and secondary fattening groups. The market pressure is high in August, and the September contract is expected to be weak. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, presenting a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation [4]
鸡蛋:情绪偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 02:01
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of the egg market is weak, and the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2508 is 3,259 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.36% and a trading volume decrease of 1,695 and an open interest decrease of 11,879. The closing price of egg2510 is 3,298 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.96% and a trading volume increase of 36,432 and an open interest increase of 21,483 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 8 - 9 spread is -263, and the egg 8 - 10 spread is -39, compared to -299 and -82 of the previous day respectively [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.00 yuan/jin, 2.93 yuan/jin, 3.10 yuan/jin, and 3.71 yuan/jin respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,329 yuan/ton, down from 2,368 yuan/ton of the previous day. The soybean meal spot price is 2,890 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The live pig price in Henan is 14.33 yuan/kg, up from 13.93 yuan/kg of the previous day [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 indicates the most bearish outlook, and 2 indicates the most bullish outlook [1]
LPG:进口成本走低
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 01:38
Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on LPG and propylene, analyzing their fundamentals, market trends, and relevant industry information as of August 1, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The import cost of LPG is decreasing, and the raw material cost support for propylene is weakening [1][2] Group 4: Fundamental Data Futures Prices - PG2509 closed at 4,003 yesterday with a daily decline of 1.21%, and 3,984 in the night session with a decline of 0.47% - PG2510 closed at 4,441 yesterday with a daily decline of 0.67%, and 4,429 in the night session with a decline of 0.27% - PL2601 closed at 6,545 yesterday with a daily decline of 0.38%, and 6,520 in the night session with a decline of 0.38% - PL2602 closed at 6,609 yesterday with a daily decline of 0.27%, and 6,604 in the night session with a decline of 0.08% [2] Position and Trading Volume - PG2509 had a trading volume of 131,528 yesterday, an increase of 55,838 from the previous day, and an open interest of 85,719, an increase of 2,044 - PG2510 had a trading volume of 31,328 yesterday, an increase of 10,611 from the previous day, and an open interest of 66,367, an increase of 920 - PL2601 had a trading volume of 2,343 yesterday, a decrease of 326 from the previous day, and an open interest of 4,700, a decrease of 292 - PL2602 had a trading volume of 202 yesterday, a decrease of 17 from the previous day, and an open interest of 1,156, a decrease of 149 [2] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 447 yesterday, up from 398 the previous day - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 467 yesterday, up from 418 the previous day - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was -295 yesterday, up from -350 the previous day - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was -195 yesterday, down from -145 the previous day - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was -220 yesterday, down from -195 the previous day [2] Key Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate was 72.6% this week, down from 73.1% last week - The MTBE operating rate was 67.8% this week, down from 69.0% last week - The alkylation operating rate was 46.2% this week, down from 46.9% last week [2] Group 5: Market Trends - The trend strength of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0, indicating a neutral market trend for both [6] Group 6: Market Information - Saudi Aramco's August 2025 CP prices are out, with propane at $520/ton, down $55/ton from last month, and butane at $490/ton, also down $55/ton from last month. The landed cost in US dollars is $548/ton for propane and $518/ton for butane, and the landed cost in RMB is about 4,327 yuan/ton for propane and 4,090 yuan/ton for butane [8] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [9] - There are also multiple domestic LPG plant device maintenance plans, including those of Shengli Heavy Oil, Haike Ruilin, etc. [9]
花生:旧作下方有支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:51
Key Information Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The old peanut crops have support at the lower price level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The prices of important spot peanuts such as Liaoning 308, Henan Baisha, Xingcheng Xiaoriben, and Sudan refined rice remained unchanged at 8,600 yuan/ton, 8,560 yuan/ton, 8,400 yuan/ton, and 8,600 yuan/ton respectively [3] - **Futures Prices**: PK510 closed at 8,106 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.20%, while PK511 closed at 7,982 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.13% [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of PK510, PK511, and the entire peanut futures market all decreased. For example, the trading volume of PK510 decreased by 33,084 lots to 36,933 lots, and the open interest decreased by 895 lots to 101,404 lots [3] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Liaoning 308, Henan Baisha, Xingcheng Xiaoriben, and Sudan refined rice were 494 yuan/ton, 454 yuan/ton, 294 yuan/ton, and 494 yuan/ton respectively. The 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 124 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Spot Market Focus - **Henan Region**: The market is mainly for inventory trading. Inquiries and purchases are average. Peanut prices are basically stable, with transactions priced according to quality and color [4] - **Jilin Region**: The price of 308 common peanuts is around 4.3 - 4.4. There is not much remaining stock in the producing area. The market is mainly for inventory sales, and inquiries and purchases are average. Prices in most areas are stable [4] - **Liaoning Region**: The acquisition of raw materials at the grassroots level has ended. The market is mainly for inventory trading. There are large quality differences, and transactions are mainly through negotiation. Demand is low, and the market is slightly weak [4] - **Shandong Region**: The acquisition of raw materials has ended. The market is mainly for cold - storage peanut trading. There is not much remaining inventory in most areas, and the trading is in the final stage [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of peanuts is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]