1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The inflation data in August showed a differentiated feature of "weak CPI and stable PPI". The year-on-year growth rate of CPI was lower than market expectations, mainly dragged down by a significant decline in food prices. The year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed, which was attributed to the initial effect of the "anti-involution" policy [1][6]. - For the bond market, the continuous recovery of core CPI for four months indicates that domestic demand is still moderately recovering, and the narrowing decline of PPI reflects that the "anti-involution" policy and the improvement of supply-demand relationship are taking effect. The ultimate impact of the "anti-involution" policy on the bond market depends on whether the price increase expectation it brings can be supported by real demand [1][6]. - Negative inflation means a passive increase in real interest rates. Compared with the weak economic fundamentals and low investment returns, the current level of real interest rates is relatively high, so the central bank may still have the demand to "reduce the financing cost of the real economy" [2][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 8 - Month CPI: Food Prices Significantly Drag, Core CPI Continuously Improves - The year-on-year turn of CPI negative in this month was mainly due to two factors: the high-base effect, with the carry-over effect of last year's price changes on this month's CPI year-on-year being about -0.9 percentage points, and the pull-down effect expanding by 0.4 percentage points compared with last month; food prices were weaker than seasonal, with the month-on-month increase of food prices being 0.5%, about 1.1 percentage points lower than the seasonal level, and the price changes of pork, eggs, and fresh fruits all being weaker than seasonal [2][7]. - Although the overall performance of CPI was weak, core CPI showed resilience. The year-on-year increase of core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) was 0.9%, with the increase expanding for the fourth consecutive month. The year-on-year increase of industrial consumer goods prices excluding energy was 1.5%, with the increase expanding by 0.3 percentage points compared with last month, and the year-on-year increase of gold and platinum jewelry prices may be related to the rise in international gold prices; the year-on-year increase of service prices was 0.6%, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared with last month [2][7]. 3.2 8 - Month PPI: Year-on-Year Decline Narrows, the First Narrowing Since March This Year - PPI decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared with last month, the first narrowing since March this year. This was affected by the lower comparison base in the same period last year and the implementation of active and effective macro - policies in China [3][8]. - Consistent with the "purchase price of major raw materials" in the manufacturing PMI in August being in the expansion range, price transmission started from "upstream to mid - stream", but the downstream consumer goods end still lacked bargaining power. - The optimization of market competition order drove the narrowing of year-on-year price declines in related industries. The year-on-year price declines of coal processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, coal mining and washing, photovoltaic equipment and component manufacturing, and new energy vehicle manufacturing narrowed by 10.3, 6.0, 3.2, 2.8, and 0.6 percentage points respectively compared with last month, reducing the pull - down effect on PPI year-on-year by about 0.50 percentage points compared with last month, which was the main reason for the narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline [3][8]. - The new driving force of industry development drove the year-on-year price recovery of related industries. The prices of integrated circuit packaging and testing series increased by 1.1%, the prices of ship and related device manufacturing increased by 0.9%, the prices of communication system equipment manufacturing increased by 0.3%, and the prices of solid waste treatment equipment increased by 0.3% [3][8].

Core Insights - The consumer market in China remained generally stable in August, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 0.4% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth in this metric [1] Economic Indicators - National Bureau of Statistics released data indicating that the CPI did not change on a month-to-month basis [1] - Year-on-year CPI decreased by 0.4%, reflecting a slight contraction in consumer prices [1] - Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, indicating a strengthening trend in underlying inflation [1]

Core Insights - The consumer market in August showed overall stability, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat month-on-month and down 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month ended an eight-month decline, stabilizing after a 0.2% drop in the previous month, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, which is a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [1][3] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI is attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases this month, with a tail effect from last year's price changes contributing approximately -0.9 percentage points to the CPI [1] - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 0.9% reflects the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, with service prices also showing a gradual increase since March [1][2] Producer Price Index (PPI) Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline is primarily influenced by falling international commodity prices, particularly crude oil, which has significantly impacted domestic oil and gas extraction and related industries [3] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to improved supply-demand relationships and the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies, leading to positive price changes in certain industries [3][4] Market Dynamics - The "trade-in" policy for consumer goods is providing significant support for prices within the covered range, with household appliance prices rising by 1.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase from 2.8% to 4.6% [2] - The ongoing optimization of market competition and the emergence of new economic drivers are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices, with a focus on key industries and the potential for a PPI recovery cycle [4]

8月CPI同比增速-0.4%，环比0.0%；PPI同比增速-2.9%，环比回升至0.0%。8月通胀保持稳步修复。在猪 周期影响下，食品价格对CPI形成主要拖累，但核心服务价格保持韧性，核心CPI同比大幅回升。反内 卷政策效果在8月PPI数据已有所显现，采掘工业价格动能回正，黑色链条也出现止跌回稳的迹象，同时 大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游加工业，后续观察涨价的持续性与弹性。 CPI：服务表现韧性，食品形成拖累 报告导读：反内卷政策效果在PPI中初步显现，大宗商品涨价也带动了中下游行业的价格修复，传导效 果较为明显。猪周期拖累CPI再次转负，但服务价格韧性，消费价格仍处于稳步回升的通道。 食品拖累主要来源于猪肉和蛋类。猪周期处于磨底阶段，企业去库压力较高，加之8月高温天气需求有 所回落，导致价格出现明显回落。随着9月需求回升，猪价或逐渐走出低位。鸡蛋价格明显回落，产蛋 鸡存栏量处在高位，同时暑假期间需求回落，猪肉价格下跌也对鸡蛋需求存在替代效应。其他食品价格 均符合季节性。 本文来自格隆汇专栏：国泰海通宏观研究，作者：韩朝辉 张剑宇 梁中华 风险提示：地产尾部压力依然存在、消费修复动能不及预期 注：以上内容节选自国 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) transitioned from a month-on-month decline of 0.2% to flat in August, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, a reduction in the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI was attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases in August [2] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the CPI decline, with pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits having a notable downward impact [2][3] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 0.9% reflects the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [3][4] - Service prices have shown a gradual increase since March, with a 0.6% rise in August, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the CPI increase [3] PPI Insights - The PPI's month-on-month stability in August ended an eight-month downward trend, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [5] - The year-on-year PPI decline of 2.9% is the first narrowing since March, driven by enhanced market competition and proactive macroeconomic policies [5] Future Outlook - Experts predict an improvement in supply-demand structures, which is expected to support a reasonable recovery in prices [4][5]

Group 1 - The overall consumer market in August remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged month-on-month and down 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month ended an eight-month decline, stabilizing after a 0.2% drop in the previous month, while the year-on-year decline was 2.9%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][4] - The improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries has positively influenced prices, with some energy and raw material sectors experiencing price increases month-on-month [3][4] Group 2 - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has been strengthened, providing significant support for prices of covered goods, with transportation tool prices stabilizing month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowing from 2.1% to 1.9% [3] - Service prices have shown a continuous upward trend since March, with household services, medical services, and educational services leading the increase, indicating the ongoing release of service consumption potential [3] - The overall low price level since the beginning of the year is expected to continue, providing ample space for future growth stabilization policies [5]

Core Insights - The consumer market in China is operating steadily, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat month-on-month in August and showing a year-on-year decline of 0.4% [2] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth in this metric [2] Economic Indicators - The national statistics bureau reported that the overall consumer market is stable, indicating resilience in consumer spending [2] - The flat month-on-month CPI suggests that inflationary pressures are currently subdued, which may influence monetary policy decisions [2] - The year-on-year decline in the overall CPI could reflect changes in consumer behavior and economic conditions [2]

Group 1 - The overall consumer market in August remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged month-on-month and down 0.4% year-on-year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month shifted from a decline of 0.2% in the previous month to being flat [1] Group 2 - The year-on-year decline in CPI was attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases this month [1] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month in August, which was 1.1 percentage points lower than the seasonal average [1] - The PPI ended an eight-month downward trend, with improvements in supply-demand relationships causing some energy and raw material prices to rise month-on-month [1] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.9%, but the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first narrowing since March of this year [1]

Group 1 - The consumer market in August showed overall stability, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month changed from a decline of 0.2% in the previous month to flat, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction since March of this year [1][3] - The improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries has contributed to the stabilization of prices, with the transportation equipment prices remaining flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowing from 2.1% to 1.9% [2][3] Group 2 - The ongoing implementation of policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption is becoming a key driver for a moderate recovery in basic price levels, as evidenced by the increase in household appliance prices by 1.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase from 2.8% to 4.6% [2][4] - The service prices have shown a continuous upward trend since March, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% in August, indicating the potential for service consumption to be further released [2][3] - The overall low price level trend since the beginning of the year is expected to continue, providing ample space for future growth-stabilizing policies [3][4]

记者从国家统计局获悉：8月份，消费市场运行总体平稳，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比持平，同比 下降0.4%；随着扩内需促消费政策持续显效，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.9%，涨幅连续 第四个月扩大；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比由上月下降0.2%转为持平。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析，CPI同比由平转降，主要是上年同期对比基数走高叠加本月 食品价格涨幅低于季节性水平所致。分类别看，主要是食品价格较低。8月食品价格环比上涨0.5%，涨 幅低于季节性水平约1.1个百分点。 PPI环比结束连续8个月下行态势。本月PPI环比变动的主要特点：一是供需关系改善影响部分能源和原 材料行业价格环比由降转涨，二是输入性因素影响国内石油和部分有色金属行业价格环比回落。PPI同 比下降2.9%，降幅比上月收窄0.7个百分点，为今年3月份以来首次收窄。 （文章来源：人民日报） ...