Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, with a significant drop in year-on-year growth due to the timing of the Spring Festival [1] - The food item saw a year-on-year decline of 0.7%, down 1.8 percentage points, while pork prices continued to be under pressure with a year-on-year drop of 13.7% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, recorded a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but month-on-month, it reached a six-month high of 0.3% [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In January, the PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, marking four consecutive months of growth [2] - Key industries such as cement and photovoltaic equipment saw price increases, with cement rising by 0.1% and photovoltaic equipment by 1.9% month-on-month [2] - The prices in the non-ferrous metal industry surged, with mining and processing prices increasing by 5.7% and 5.2% respectively [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - The CPI for February is expected to rise by 1.3% year-on-year, potentially reaching a new high since February 2023, driven by the Spring Festival demand [3] - The PPI is anticipated to turn positive in the second quarter of this year, reflecting improvements in industrial price environments and the gradual recovery of economic momentum [3] - Current policies are focused on expanding domestic demand and promoting reasonable price recovery, which is expected to support the overall economic environment [3]

来源：宏观fans哲 芦哲 S0600524110003 占烁 S0600524120005 核心观点 2月11日，国家统计局发布1月物价数据。1月CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，低于Wind一致预期0.44%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨 0.8%；PPI环比上涨0.4%，同比下降1.4%，基本持平于Wind一致预期。 核心观点：受到春节错月影响，1月CPI低于预期，但物价"表冷里热"，CPI和PPI回升的趋势都没有改变，CPI里医疗服务、耐用消费品、出行等价格仍在 持续改善，同时PPI环比+0.4%，创下28个月以来最大涨幅。往后看，对2026年物价形势可以更乐观一些，CPI同比可能从2月开始回升至1%以上，PPI同 比可能在6-7月前后转正，GDP平减指数可能在Q2-Q3转正。但是，由于这轮价格上涨更多是供给侧驱动，需求端改善幅度较小，这种情况下需要关注价 格改善的持续性。PPI和GDP平减指数能否转正不再是主要矛盾，2026年价格问题的关键在于这两个价格指数能维持多长时间的正增长。 | 同比 | CPI | 食品 | 非食 | 核心 | 消费 | 服务 | РЫ | 发 来 资 | ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 2 月 11 日 1 月通胀点评 春节错月影响一季度，基期轮换影响全年 1 月 CPI 同比增速低于万得一致预期，PPI 同比增速略高于万得一致预期； 春节错月因素或将在一季度持续影响 CPI 和 PPI 数据，但基期轮换或影响全 年，统计局测算本次基期轮换对 CPI 和 PPI 各月同比指数的影响平均约为 0.06 和 0.08 个百分点，总体较小。 相关研究报告 《2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告学习体会》 20260211 《策略点评》20260209 《策略周报》20260208 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 ◼ 1 月 CPI 环比增长 0.2%，同比增长 0.2%，核心 CPI 同比增长 0.8%，服务 价格同比增长 0.1 ...

中新社北京2月11日电 (记者 王恩博)中国国家统计局11日公布，主要受春节错月影响，1月份中国居民 消费价格指数(CPI)同比涨幅回落至0.2%，但扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI保持温和上涨。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析称，上年1月份为春节月份，食品和部分服务价格上涨较多， 导致上年同期对比基数较高，带动本月同比涨幅回落较多。 同期，扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨2.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。其中，黄金饰品价格 同比上涨77.4%。 分类别看，食品价格同比下降0.7%，影响CPI同比下降约0.11个百分点，而上月对CPI的影响为上拉约 0.21个百分点。服务价格同比上涨0.1%，影响CPI同比上涨约0.05个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上 月减少约0.20个百分点。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，1月CPI同比最大的干扰因素是春节错位，市场对其早有预期。 从结构看，虽然食品与能源表现偏弱，但核心CPI表现稳健。展望2月，由于春节错月转向拉升CPI，预 计同比增速将显著回升。(完) 同时，国际油价变动导致能源价格降幅扩大。1月份能源价格同比下降5.0%，影响CPI同比下降约0.3 ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, reflecting a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to December [1] - The decline in CPI is attributed to the Spring Festival timing and a significant drop in energy prices, which decreased by 5.0%, impacting CPI by approximately 0.34 percentage points [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the highest increase in six months, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand [3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The PPI rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with an expansion of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [5] - Factors contributing to the PPI increase include the ongoing construction of a unified national market and rising demand in certain industries [5] - Prices in sectors such as photovoltaic, battery, cement, and steel have shown positive improvements due to the "anti-involution" policies implemented last year [5] Group 3: Industry-Specific Price Changes - In January, prices for cement manufacturing and lithium-ion battery manufacturing increased by 0.1%, continuing a four-month upward trend [5] - The price of photovoltaic equipment and components shifted from a 0.2% decrease to a 1.9% increase, while basic chemical raw materials saw a 0.7% increase [5] - The prices of non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries rose significantly, with silver smelting prices increasing by 38.2% and copper smelting by 8.4% [6] Group 4: Future Price Trends - The National Bureau of Statistics indicates that favorable factors for moderate price recovery are accumulating, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing market expectations [6] - The implementation of coordinated fiscal and financial policies is expected to gradually expand consumer demand, providing a foundation for stable price operations [6] - Emphasis on industry self-regulation and capacity management is anticipated to further enhance price recovery in key sectors [6]