宏观经济分析报告 "反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 ――2026 年 1 月物价数据点评 展望来看，（1）生猪供给仍较充足，猪价或延续低位震荡；春节前鲜菜 价格或再度上涨。（2）油价对 CPI 同环比将转为上拉；（3）春节因素或 带动核心通胀同环比涨幅扩大。综上预计 2026 年 2 月 CPI 同环比涨幅均 扩大。 PPI："反内卷"与新质生产力发展并进 2026 年 1 月 PPI 同比降幅收窄，环比涨幅扩大。国际定价商品中，输入 性因素继续拖累国内石油相关行业价格；受铜矿供应持续紧缺、AI 投资 扩张等因素影响，有色金属产业链价格继续上行。国内定价商品中，（1） 上游原材料中，"反内卷"持续显效，基础化学原料制造、黑色金属加工 价格由降转涨，煤炭产业链则暂时降温。（2）中游制造业中，除"反内 卷"带动锂离子电池、光伏设备制造等价格由降转涨外，人工智能等数 字化技术加快发展、算力需求增长带动电子设备制造业价格环比上涨。 （3）下游消费品制造业中，春节提振效应明显，礼品和食品等备货需求 增加带动工艺品制造、农副食品加工价格上涨。 展望来看，2 月输入型通胀或有升温；国内定价商品价格的积极因素仍然 是两大方向， ...

Core Insights - The core consumer price index (CPI) in China showed a mild increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% and a year-on-year rise of 0.2% in January, while the core CPI excluding food and energy rose by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand [1][2][3] Industry Analysis - The increase in core CPI is attributed to high service consumption demand and rising prices of durable goods, supported by international gold price increases and consumption policies [1][2] - Specific price changes include a 5.7% increase in airplane tickets, a 2.0% rise in travel agency fees, and price increases in household goods and personal care items ranging from 0.7% to 1.4% [1][2] - The industrial consumer goods price, excluding energy, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, with notable increases in gold jewelry prices by 77.4% and household goods by 2.1% to 6.6% [2] Consumer Goods Stability - Essential consumer goods such as vegetables, meat, and fruits maintained stable prices, with fresh vegetable prices decreasing by 4.8% and pork prices increasing by 1.2% [2][3] - The stability in prices of essential goods is seen as a successful regulatory measure to ensure basic living needs are met [2] Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that the CPI growth rate will significantly increase to around 1.0% in February due to the reversal of the Spring Festival timing effect, with a combined CPI growth rate of approximately 0.6% for January and February [3] - For 2026, the CPI growth rate is expected to fluctuate between 0.5% and 1.2%, with a potential year-end rate around 0.8% [3][4] - The data from January is viewed as a positive signal for high-quality economic development in 2026, emphasizing the need for policies to support income growth, youth employment, and infrastructure investment [4]

Group 1 - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, primarily influenced by the Spring Festival's timing, leading to a high comparison base from the previous year [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, while it increased by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][3] - Energy prices fell by 5.0% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.34 percentage points to the CPI decline, with gasoline prices down 11.4% [1] Group 2 - Core CPI showed a mild increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.3%, the highest in six months, indicating a continuous recovery in consumer demand [1] - Prices for air tickets and travel agency services rose by 5.7% and 2.0% respectively, while prices for household services, hairdressing, and entertainment tickets increased between 0.4% and 2.8% [2] - Excluding energy, industrial consumer goods prices rose by 2.6% year-on-year, with significant increases in gold jewelry prices (77.4%) and household goods [2] Group 3 - The PPI's month-on-month increase of 0.4% reflects positive changes driven by the ongoing construction of a unified national market and increased demand in certain industries [3] - Prices in the raw materials and processing industries rose by 0.7% and 0.5% month-on-month, with year-on-year declines narrowing by 0.6 and 1.2 percentage points respectively [3] - The trend of "anti-involution" is expected to continue influencing the prices of basic raw materials and industrial products in the future [3]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a moderate recovery in consumer demand [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the highest increase in six months [3] - Food prices decreased by 0.7%, contributing to a decline in the CPI year-on-year by approximately 0.11 percentage points, while service prices increased by 0.1% [2][3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% [4] - Key industries showed price increases due to improved supply-demand structures and the effects of capacity governance [4][5] - Domestic prices in the non-ferrous metal and petroleum sectors exhibited divergence due to international price fluctuations, with non-ferrous metal mining prices increasing significantly [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recovery of consumer demand in January, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The January CPI increase is influenced by the Spring Festival, with food prices showing a year-on-year decline, particularly in fresh vegetables and fruits, while pork prices also decreased [3] - The core CPI continues to rise, reaching its highest level in nearly six months, with notable increases in prices for air tickets, travel agency fees, and various services [4] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission indicates that price improvements in certain industries are due to enhanced supply-demand adjustments and the rectification of excessive competition [6] - The recent CPI data release is the first following the "base period rotation" in 2025, which aims to better reflect changes in consumer behavior and ensure the representativeness of the "fixed basket" of goods [8][18] Group 3 - The "base period rotation" involves updating the categories and structure of the fixed basket of goods to adapt to changes in consumer spending patterns, conducted every five years [8][11] - The latest rotation has introduced new categories reflecting current consumption trends, such as home security devices and internet medical services, while expanding the survey coverage to approximately 120,000 points [20][22] - The publication of the CPI weights, which indicate the expenditure proportion of each category, enhances transparency and aligns with international standards, reflecting the increasing trend of development-oriented and enjoyment-oriented consumption [24]

二是扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比涨幅持续扩大。扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨2.6%，涨幅 比上月扩大0.1个百分点。其中，黄金饰品价格同比上涨77.4%；家用器具、家庭日用杂品和服装价格涨 幅在2.1%—6.6%之间。 （文章来源：人民网） 二是国际油价变动导致能源价格降幅扩大。1月份能源价格下降5.0%，影响CPI同比下降约0.34个百分 点，对CPI同比的下拉影响比上月增加约0.06个百分点，其中汽油价格同比下降11.4%，降幅比上月扩大 3.0个百分点。 董莉娟表示，居民消费需求持续恢复，核心CPI温和上涨的态势没有改变。 一是核心CPI环比继续上涨。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，为近6个月最高。其中，飞 机票和旅行社收费价格环比分别上涨5.7%和2.0%；家政服务、美发、电影及演出票价格涨幅在0.4%— 2.8%之间；数据存储设备和计算机价格分别上涨8.0%和2.6%；家用器具、家庭日用杂品、个人护理用 品价格涨幅在0.7%—1.4%之间。 人民网北京2月11日电国家统计局11日公布数据显示，1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，居民消费价格指 数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0. ...

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's economic performance in 2025 shows stable development in employment and income, with a focus on high-quality employment and income growth driven by various policies and initiatives [3][5][10]. Employment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in Beijing remained stable at an annual average of 4.1%, consistent with the previous year, with monthly fluctuations between 4.0% and 4.3% [4]. - Employment initiatives targeted at youth, particularly college graduates, and support for disadvantaged groups have been emphasized to promote local employment and transition employment [4][10]. - The unemployment rate peaked at 4.3% in July due to the influx of new labor from college graduates, but stabilized in the fourth quarter [4]. Income - Per capita disposable income in Beijing increased from 69,000 yuan at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 89,000 yuan by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2025 [5]. - Wage income and net transfer income contributed significantly to this growth, with both categories showing a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, contributing 73.6% to the rise in disposable income [5]. - Rural residents' income growth outpaced urban residents, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, leading to a reduction in the urban-rural income ratio to 2.29 [5]. Consumer Prices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Beijing showed a low and stable trend, with a year-end increase of 1.0% after a period of decline in the first three quarters [6]. - Food prices decreased by 2.0%, significantly impacting the CPI, with fresh vegetables seeing a notable decline of 4.2% [6][7]. - Service prices remained stable overall, with some categories experiencing price increases, such as home services and education, which rose by 17.4% and 0.8%, respectively [8]. Future Outlook - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes improving the quality of life and increasing income, with a focus on stabilizing employment for key groups such as college graduates and rural laborers [9][10]. - Despite structural employment challenges, favorable economic conditions and supportive policies are expected to maintain a stable labor market and income growth [10]. - Price stability is anticipated, with measures in place to ensure food supply and manage service prices during peak demand periods [10].

Core Insights - The consumption market in Wuhan is witnessing a new trend where "emotional consumption" is rising despite stable or declining prices in essential goods [1][8] - The service prices in Wuhan increased by 0.7% in 2025, with significant rises in beauty services (9.1%) and pet services (4.2%), indicating a shift towards "self-care" spending [1][9] Consumption Trends - Emotional consumption is characterized by a diverse range of services available throughout the day, catering to various age groups and emotional needs, such as early morning breakfast spots and 24-hour pet hospitals [4] - The CPI data shows that while overall prices increased modestly, specific sectors like education, culture, and entertainment saw significant price hikes, with ticket prices for attractions rising by 7.3% [8] Price Changes - The price changes from 2024 to 2025 in various categories indicate a mixed trend, with food and beverages expected to decrease by 0.5%, while other services like "other goods and services" are projected to increase by 9.6% [5] - Traditional consumer goods prices remain stable, with fresh vegetable prices down by 3.3% and pork prices down by 8.5%, allowing consumers to allocate more budget towards emotional and luxury spending [8] Market Dynamics - The rise in emotional consumption aligns with the upgrade of industrial products, as consumers are increasingly interested in health-oriented and technologically advanced products [8] - The trend reflects a broader shift among younger consumers who prioritize spending on personal well-being and experiences, indicating a new lifestyle and consumption pattern in Wuhan [9]

Core Insights - Wuhan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, surpassing the national average and ranking third among 19 sub-provincial cities, leading among central provincial capitals [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, indicating a recovery in consumer demand, particularly for services and durable goods [2][3] - The "National Subsidy" policy has significantly stimulated the purchase of home appliances and 3C digital products, contributing to a rise in prices for certain durable goods [4] CPI Trends - In the first half of 2025, Wuhan's CPI growth was 0.5 percentage points higher than the national average, which saw a decline of 0.1% [2] - Monthly CPI trends showed a "V" shape, with a peak increase of 0.7% in January, followed by a decline in February, and a return to positive growth in March through June [2] Service and Durable Goods Consumption - Service prices increased by 1.0%, outpacing the 0.6% rise in non-food prices, reflecting a robust growth in service consumption [4] - The prices of communication tools rose by 3.0%, while entertainment durable goods saw a 2.7% increase, driven by consumer confidence and demand for product upgrades [4] Emerging Consumption Trends - New consumption formats and experiences, such as immersive cultural tourism and sports activities, are gaining popularity, with related service prices increasing by 1.7% [5] - The demand for personalized and participatory sports consumption is on the rise, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [5] Food and Energy Prices - Food prices in Wuhan decreased by 0.7%, primarily due to a 4.4% drop in fresh vegetable prices, influenced by favorable climate conditions [5] - Energy prices also saw a decline, with gasoline and diesel prices dropping by 7.2% and 7.7%, respectively, contributing to a 3.7% decrease in overall energy prices [5]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Wuhan increased by 0.4% year-on-year in April, indicating the resilience and vitality of the consumption market [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with seven out of eight categories of goods and services experiencing price increases [1] - Prices for other goods and services rose by 6.3%, education and cultural entertainment by 2.3%, clothing by 2.1%, and housing and healthcare by 0.4%, while transportation and communication prices decreased by 3.5% [1] Group 2 - Service prices increased by 0.9% year-on-year, becoming a significant driver of CPI growth, with notable increases in ticket prices for attractions, movies, and performances [2] - The rise in service prices is attributed to various seasonal and event-driven consumption trends, including the popularity of cultural events and festivals in Wuhan [2]