Economic Overview - The inflation environment for 2025 is characterized by a bottoming out and stabilization, with the GDP deflator index dropping to -1.2% in Q2, the lowest since 2010, and improving to -1.0% in Q3[4][17]. - The manufacturing investment growth rate fell from 9.0% in February to 1.9% in November, indicating a slowdown in capacity expansion[4][5]. Price Trends - The PPI has shown signs of recovery, with a five-month consecutive increase from July to December, marking the first positive growth since June 2022[4][5]. - Key price increases in sectors such as storage chips (up 478%), copper (up 25.2%), and lithium hexafluorophosphate (up 248.2%) were noted from July to December 2025[4][20]. Structural Changes - The PPI base year will shift in 2026, with significant updates to the survey directory and weight adjustments, particularly increasing the weight of non-ferrous metal processing and computer communication electronics[4][28]. - The new PPI structure will better reflect emerging industries and technological advancements, potentially leading to a more pronounced impact on price readings[4][28]. Investment and Consumption - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to stimulate investment, particularly in infrastructure, which will support raw material prices in the construction sector[5][12]. - Consumer spending is anticipated to increase due to policies aimed at enhancing consumption rates, with a focus on public service equalization and short-term incentives for service consumption[5][12]. Global Economic Factors - Global liquidity conditions remain supportive, with M2 growth in major economies rising from 2.4% to 8.0% year-on-year, indicating a favorable environment for commodity prices[6][12]. - The export environment is projected to remain stable, with expected growth rates of 3-4% for exports, contributing to a balanced pricing scenario for major export products[5][12]. Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include unexpected downward pressure on the domestic economy, uncertainties in real estate policies, and fluctuations in global commodity prices[12][14]. - The impact of the pig cycle and other agricultural price trends may also influence inflation dynamics in 2026, with expectations of a price bottoming out in the first half of the year[10][12].

Core Insights - The pig industry in China is experiencing a significant bifurcation, with major listed companies increasing their output while many smaller producers are exiting the market due to ongoing losses [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In 2025, the total output of major listed pig companies reached approximately 205 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 20.57%, with these companies accounting for about 29% of the national total [1]. - Nine out of ten listed pig companies reported positive growth in output, with only two companies, Aonong Biological and Luoniushan, experiencing declines [1]. - The top three companies, Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope, collectively produced 136 million heads, representing over 66% of the total output [1]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The second tier of companies saw significant changes, with Zhengbang Technology's output increasing by approximately 106% to 8.54 million heads, marking the most notable growth among listed companies [2]. - COFCO Jiajia Kang returned to the top ten with a nearly 70% increase, while Lihua shares achieved over 50% growth for two consecutive years [2]. - The threshold to enter the top ten in output has risen to over 4.5 million heads, indicating heightened competition [2]. Group 3: Price and Cost Dynamics - Despite the increase in output, pig prices have remained low, with average prices in November showing a decline of approximately 28.73% for Muyuan and 29.92% for Wens compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The price of feed ingredients, such as soybean meal, has risen by 20% year-on-year, further squeezing profit margins for smaller producers [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry is expected to undergo a significant restructuring in 2026, with many smallholders and high-cost producers likely to exit the market due to oversupply and high costs [6]. - The market is anticipated to reach a supply-demand balance by the second half of 2026, as major companies begin to reduce their breeding stock [5][6]. - Predictions suggest that pig prices in 2026 may fluctuate between 10 to 13 yuan per kilogram, with only a slight recovery expected compared to 2025 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, many products are expected to be in a state of shock, while in the long - term, the pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. - Overall, the supply of oilseeds (soybeans and rapeseeds) is relatively abundant, and the annual output of palm oil is high. Although it is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend, the overall situation of the oil market is complex[7]. - The protein meal market is affected by factors such as international soybean supply and domestic demand, and is expected to be in a state of shock[8]. - The corn market is in a state of tight balance, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short - term[9]. - The rubber market (both natural and synthetic) is expected to be in a state of shock, with different influencing factors[13][16]. - The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and gradually strengthen in the medium - to - long - term, while the sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[17][18]. - The pulp and double - gum paper markets are expected to be in a state of shock and weaken, and the log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[19][22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**: Export expectations drive the rebound of palm oil. The price of palm oil is strong, driving up the prices of soybean and rapeseed oils slightly. The supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively abundant, and the future supply expectations of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are different[7]. - **Logic**: For palm oil, the market expects good export data in Malaysia from January 1 - 20, but the domestic spot inventory is increasing, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment is insufficient. For soybean oil, the global soybean production and inventory are expected to increase, and the domestic market's acceptance of high prices is decreasing. For rapeseed oil, future supply expectations are turning loose, but the spot is still tight, and the near - end basis is relatively strong[7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to be in a state of shock, palm oil in a state of shock, and rapeseed oil in a state of shock and weaken[7]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**: Terminal stocking and point - pricing drive the rebound of double - meal prices at low levels[8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sowing of Argentine soybeans is nearly finished, and the US soybean demand is supported. The supply of overseas soybeans is expected to increase. Domestically, the low prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal attract downstream stocking, but the adjustment of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has a slight negative impact[8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to be in a state of shock. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal[8]. 3.1.3. 玉米及淀粉 - **观点**: Corn is in a state of range - bound shock[8]. - **Logic**: The current fundamentals are in a tight balance. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the logistics is affected by snow. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises' pre - holiday stocking has a certain impact on prices. Policy grain auctions also affect the price[9]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to be in a state of shock[9]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**: Slaughterhouses' procurement slows down, and the spot and futures prices of live pigs decline[10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the early - January slaughter progress is slow, and secondary fattening has re - entered in some areas. In the medium - term, the supply surplus pressure will last until April 2026. In the long - term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand shows a slight weekly increase in slaughter volume, and there is a slight inventory accumulation[11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be in a state of shock. The industry is advised to focus on short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. 3.1.5. 沪胶与20号胶 - **观点**: The natural rubber market is in a state of wide - range shock[12]. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall commodity adjustment trend, the rubber price is in a narrow - range shock, and the fundamentals have not changed much. It is mainly driven by macro factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream buying is weak after the price increase[13]. - **Outlook**: The natural rubber market is expected to be in a state of shock[13]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**: The price is in a state of correction and adjustment, and the market is in a state of shock[16]. - **Logic**: After the previous price increase, there is no further upward momentum, but the downside space is limited. The mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged, mainly based on the expected improvement of butadiene fundamentals. The price of butadiene has been rising recently[16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is still pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen in the medium - term[16]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**: The price continues to adjust, and attention should be paid to the lower support[17]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, due to the exhaustion of short - term benefits and the decline in positions, the cotton price has stopped rising. The fundamentals are generally good, but the increase in cotton yarn imports is a marginal negative factor. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise based on the expected tight supply and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang[17]. - **Outlook**: The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen[17]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**: The sugar price is under pressure and closes down[18]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, and both domestic and international prices are under pressure. In the domestic market, the supply is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure during the northern hemisphere's listing period[18]. - **Outlook**: The sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[18]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**: The price of broad - leaf pulp continues to weaken, and the fundamentals have more concerns[19]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of pulp have not changed much, with both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the increase in import costs and the relatively low price difference between needle and broad - leaf pulp. The negative factors include the seasonal decline in demand, abundant supply in the spot market, and the weakening of the broad - leaf pulp price[19]. - **Outlook**: The pulp market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[19]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**: There are no major contradictions, and the price is in a low - level shock[20]. - **Logic**: The market is in a low - level shock, with stable production by large - scale paper enterprises and rational stocking by dealers. The demand is weak, and the price increase is difficult to pass on to the downstream[22]. - **Outlook**: The double - gum paper market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[22]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**: The price of the log futures contract continues to decline, and the valuation has entered a deep - water area[23]. - **Logic**: The log futures contract has declined with increasing positions, and the short - term is dominated by bears. The valuation has entered a low - value area, and the downward space is relatively limited. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the delivery situation has changed. The spot price in the Jiangsu market is rising due to tight supply[23]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[23]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 No specific data analysis or summary content is provided in the given text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of commodities was 2414.16, a decrease of 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, a decrease of 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, a decrease of 0.34%[184]. - The agricultural product index on January 20, 2026, was 934.25, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a decline of 1.15% in the past 5 days, an increase of 2.39% in the past month, and an increase of 0.13% since the beginning of the year[186].

Core Viewpoint - New Five Feng (600975) is experiencing a significant increase in losses, with a projected net profit of -700 million to -960 million yuan for Q4 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The company's Q4 losses reached 780 million yuan, a substantial increase from a loss of 58 million yuan in Q3 2025 [2] - The decline in pig prices and the company's accounting practices contributed to the losses, with pig prices dropping significantly compared to the previous year [2][3] - New Five Feng's pig sales volume increased to 1.867 million heads in Q4 2025, a 66.4% increase from 1.1222 million heads in Q3 2025, exacerbating the losses [6] Industry Context - The overall industry is facing a downturn, with other companies like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) also reporting minimal profits or breakeven in Q4 2025 [2][8] - The domestic pig price trend showed a significant drop, with prices falling from over 14 yuan/kg in the first half of 2025 to as low as 10.9 yuan/kg by mid-October [3][11] - New Five Feng's cost structure is not competitive, with estimated breeding costs between 14.7 and 15.3 yuan/kg, leading to further financial strain [4] Accounting Adjustments - The company has made necessary accounting adjustments due to falling pig prices, including provisions for inventory impairment on biological assets [7] - The impact of these adjustments, along with the operational losses, will be clarified in the upcoming annual report [7] Long-term Outlook - The year 2025 is projected to be a low point for the pig farming industry, with overall profitability expected to be slightly better than in 2023 [12] - The concentration of losses in Q4 2025 is expected to be more severe compared to the average losses seen in 2023 [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent decline in pig prices, questioning the sustainability of the pig cycle [3][5] - It highlights that the market has experienced two consecutive days of price drops, indicating potential volatility in the pork industry [3][5] - The piece suggests that investors should closely monitor market trends and price movements to assess future opportunities in the pig farming sector [3][5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The agricultural sector continues to perform poorly, with the agricultural index down 3.26%, ranking 27th among 31 primary industries [4][14] - Pig prices are showing a slight upward trend, with an average price of 12.44 CNY/kg, up 1.92% from the previous week [5][20] - The supply of pigs is expected to decrease in the second half of 2026, potentially leading to a new upward cycle in pig prices [5][23] - The white feather chicken market is facing downward pressure, with chick prices dropping to 2.7 CNY/bird, down 1 CNY from before the hatching pause [7][33] - The planting sector shows mixed trends, with sugar prices slightly decreasing and cotton prices increasing [37] Summary by Sections Market Review - The agricultural sector continues to underperform, with the agricultural index down 3.27% this week [14] - The pig farming sector is leading the decline due to recent price fluctuations [17] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - Prices are slightly recovering, with an average price of 12.44 CNY/kg, and piglet prices rising to 336 CNY/head, an increase of 31 CNY from last week [5][20] - The industry remains in a loss position, with expectations of continued losses as supply pressures persist [5][23] - The production capacity is expected to continue decreasing, with a potential new cycle beginning in the second half of 2026 [23][24] White Feather Chicken - Chick prices have decreased due to weak demand and an accumulation of breeding eggs during the hatching pause [7][33] - The overall supply remains high despite a decrease in the number of breeding stock updates due to avian influenza outbreaks [7][33] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 5345 CNY/ton, while cotton prices have increased to 15978 CNY/ton [37] - Soybean prices have shown minor adjustments, with Brazilian soybeans at 3611 CNY/ton and U.S. soybeans at 4638 CNY/ton, both down by approximately 1% [37]

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is transitioning to an upward phase from the bottom of the pig cycle in Q4 2025, with the price of culling sows showing strong resilience due to multiple factors including fluctuations in fat pig prices, terminal demand support, and supply structure adjustments [3][11]. Price Trends - In Q4 2025, the average transaction price for high-quality culling sows was 8.97 yuan/kg, corresponding to an average discount of 75.06% compared to fat pigs, indicating a strong anti-decline characteristic in sow prices [3][11]. - The price of culling sows exhibited a "first drop then rise" pattern, closely linked to fat pig prices, which also followed a similar trajectory [4][12]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The support for culling sow prices in Q4 came from significant improvements in terminal demand, driven by seasonal factors such as lower temperatures boosting fresh meat consumption and increased demand for large pigs [6][14]. - The supply side has been managed rationally, with producers opting for precise culling strategies rather than mass culling, maintaining a stable core production capacity [6][14]. Market Balance - The core logic of the high-quality culling sow market in Q4 2025 is based on a balance between phase-specific demand support and rational supply adjustments, with the gradual reduction of breeding sow inventory reinforcing price stability [7][15]. - Short-term forecasts suggest that demand for stocking ahead of the 2026 Spring Festival will continue to support prices, while long-term trends indicate a potential upward shift in the culling sow market as low-efficiency production capacity is phased out [7][15].

Core Viewpoint - The company Muyuan Foods (牧原股份) is expected to face significant profit declines in 2025 due to the cyclical downturn in the pig industry, despite an increase in sales volume of pigs [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 3.18 billion to 2.18 billion yuan compared to 17.881 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.20% to 17.79% [3][4]. - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be between 15.1 billion to 16.1 billion yuan, down from 18.747 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a decrease of 3.647 billion to 2.647 billion yuan, or a decline of 14.12% to 19.45% [4]. Sales Volume and Pricing - In 2025, the company anticipates selling 77.981 million pigs, an increase of approximately 6.38 million pigs compared to 71.602 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.91% [4][5]. - The average selling price of pigs is expected to be around 13.5 yuan per kilogram, which is a decrease of approximately 17.3% compared to the previous year, significantly impacting overall profitability [4][5]. Cost Structure - The company's total breeding cost is projected to be around 11.6 yuan per kilogram by December 2025, indicating that the selling price has fallen below the cost line [5][6]. - The company maintains a competitive edge through its self-breeding model and integrated supply chain, which includes feed, breeding, slaughtering, and meat processing [7][12]. Strategic Initiatives - To counteract the cyclical downturn, the company is actively seeking international expansion, including establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary in Vietnam and investing 3.2 billion yuan in a high-tech breeding project [14]. - The company has also signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Charoen Pokphand Group (正大集团) to explore global collaboration in feed and slaughtering sectors [14]. Market Position - Muyuan Foods is the industry leader, with a sales volume of 77.981 million pigs in 2025, nearly double that of its closest competitor, Wens Foodstuffs Group (温氏股份), which sold 40.4769 million pigs [11]. - The company has invested significantly in research and development, with expenditures of 1.658 billion yuan, 1.747 billion yuan, and 1.263 billion yuan in 2023, 2024, and the first three quarters of 2025, respectively [12].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Muyuan Foods, is expected to face a significant decline in profits for 2025 due to the cyclical downturn in the pig industry, with projected net profits decreasing by 12.20% to 17.79% compared to the previous year [6][7]. Financial Performance - Muyuan Foods forecasts a net profit of 14.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan for 2025, down from 17.88 billion yuan in 2024, representing a decrease of 3.18 billion to 2.18 billion yuan [6][7]. - The company's non-net profit is expected to be between 15.1 billion and 16.1 billion yuan, a decline of 3.65 billion to 2.65 billion yuan from 18.75 billion yuan in 2024 [6][7]. - The average selling price of pigs is projected to drop by approximately 17.3% to around 13.5 yuan per kilogram, impacting overall profitability despite an increase in sales volume [7][8]. Sales Volume and Market Dynamics - In 2025, Muyuan Foods anticipates selling 77.98 million pigs, an increase of about 6.38 million pigs compared to 71.60 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.91% [3][7]. - The decline in profits is attributed to falling pig prices rather than a decrease in sales volume, highlighting the impact of market fluctuations on profitability [6][7]. Cost Structure and Competitive Advantage - Muyuan Foods maintains a cost advantage with a breeding cost of approximately 11.6 yuan per kilogram as of December 2025, which is lower than competitors [9][17]. - The company employs a self-breeding model and has integrated its supply chain, which enhances its competitive edge in the industry [11][12][19]. Strategic Initiatives - To counteract the cyclical challenges, Muyuan Foods is expanding internationally, including investments in Vietnam and partnerships with Charoen Pokphand Group for global collaboration [3][21]. - The company has recently passed the hearing for its Hong Kong IPO, which is a crucial step in its international expansion strategy [4][21]. Industry Context - The pig farming industry is experiencing increased concentration and efficiency, which poses challenges for all players, including Muyuan Foods, as they navigate the current market conditions [3][19]. - The overall scale of pig farming in China has reached 70%, indicating a mature market where significant growth may be limited [19][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pig industry is in a critical game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The pattern of increasing supply and weak demand in the national pig market is difficult to change in the short term. The spot price of live pigs will remain at a low level even in the peak season. The futures market trend depends on market sentiment, and attention should be paid to factors such as the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of farmers, the scale of secondary fattening, and the realization of seasonal demand [12] - The pressure on the supply side of live pigs remains high, the progress of sow capacity reduction is slow, and the winter demand improvement has limited pulling effect. The medium - term spot price of live pigs lacks continuous upward drive and may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - The supply of commercial pigs is expected to continue to increase until the first half of 2026. The lowest price of this cycle is expected to be in the first quarter of 2026 [10][12] - The main contract pressure level is 12300 - 13000. In terms of options, you can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1. Fundamental Views - Spot: The weekly average price of live pig spot has increased. The national average live pig slaughter price is 12.61 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.48%. The supply - side pressure remains high, the sow capacity reduction is slow, the winter demand improvement is limited, and the spot price may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - Capacity: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. The capacity regulation has achieved initial results. However, the inventory is still in the green area of capacity regulation, and it does not mean the beginning of a new cycle of soaring pig prices. From April 2024 to November 2025, the inventory of breeding sows showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the sow capacity was basically stable in 2025. It is expected that the national live pig slaughter volume will continue to increase until May 2026, and the lowest price of this cycle is expected to be in the first quarter of 2026 [10] 3.1.2. Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: The industry is in a game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The capacity reduction progress is slow, the supply of commercial pigs will continue to increase in the first half of 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve fundamentally. The total domestic pork consumption shows a steady decline trend, and the pattern of increasing supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term. The supply pressure may further increase before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will remain low. Pay attention to factors such as the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of farmers, the scale of secondary fattening, and the realization of seasonal demand, and track the position dynamics of main funds [12] - Strategy: The main contract pressure level is 12300 - 13000. In terms of options, you can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13] 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets - Spot price: The weekly average price of live pig spot has increased. The national average live pig slaughter price is 12.61 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.48%. The supply - side pressure remains high, the sow capacity reduction is slow, the winter demand improvement is limited, and the spot price may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - Spot - futures basis: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Futures spread: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Standard - fat and hair - white price difference: The demand support for fat pigs is relatively strong, and the price increase of fat pigs is greater than that of standard pigs. The national standard - fat price difference has widened to - 0.64 yuan/kg this week [42] - Piglet and binary sow price: The weekly average price of 7kg piglets is 309.05 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 22.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.03%. The current national piglet profit is about 30 yuan/head [46] - Culled sow price: The price of culled sows has adjusted narrowly following the live pig price. It is expected that the price of culled sows of multiple parities may fluctuate and adjust next week [49] 3.3. Capacity - Inventory of breeding sows: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. The capacity regulation has achieved initial results, and the inventory is still in the green area of capacity regulation. In December, the inventory continued to decline slowly. It is expected that the inventory will slightly decline in January [54][57] - Culled volume of breeding sows: In December, the culled volume of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 115,814, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% and a year - on - year increase of 18.80%. The culled volume in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 11,518, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5.47%. It is expected that the culled volume may increase easily and decrease difficultly in January [61] - Inventory proportion of breeding sows: No specific analysis conclusion provided 3.4. Supply Side - Inventory of commercial pigs: In December, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 4.72%. The inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.5558 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.17%. It is expected that the inventory will increase in January [69] - Slaughter volume of commercial pigs: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The slaughter volume in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. It is expected that the slaughter volume may increase in December [72] - Slaughter average weight of commercial pigs: The weekly average slaughter weight of live pigs has adjusted narrowly and the center of gravity has slightly moved down. It is difficult to drive the increase of the slaughter weight [78] 3.5. Demand Side - Slaughter volume of live pigs: The purchase cost of slaughtering enterprises has increased, the terminal reception is average, and the weekly average operating rate is weakly running. The slaughtering enterprises have reduced production to maintain prices, increased the fresh - sales ratio, and the frozen product inventory is in the stage of slow digestion [83] - Cold storage rate of slaughtering enterprises: After the festival, the market demand has declined, the purchase cost pressure of slaughtering enterprises is high, and they have reduced production to maintain prices. The frozen product inventory level has continued to decline [86] - Operating rate and fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises: This week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is 35.91%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the same period last year. It is expected that the operating rate will maintain a weak and narrow - range shock next week [89] - Substitute price: No specific analysis conclusion provided 3.6. Cost and Profit - Pig breeding and slaughtering profit: This week, the overall loss of the domestic pig breeding industry has continued to narrow. The average profit per head in the self - breeding and self - raising mode is 63.5 yuan. The average loss per head in the mode of purchasing piglets is 39.11 yuan, a significant narrowing of 35.78 yuan from last week. It is expected that the breeding profit may be under pressure in the middle and late ten days [102] - Slaughtering gross profit and feed - to - meat ratio: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Pig - to - grain ratio: This week, the pig - to - grain ratio is 5.44, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The market is still in the state of excessive decline warning. It is expected that the pig - to - grain ratio will continue to slightly expand next week [108]