Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) by Huabao Fund is expected to capitalize on the recovery of the A-share market and the low valuation of the agricultural sector, particularly in the pig farming industry, which is poised for a price rebound [1][2][3]. Company Summary - Huabao Fund has served 64.12 million clients and generated a total profit of 83.2 billion yuan for fund holders, with cumulative dividends reaching 59.4 billion yuan as of June 2025 [1][8]. - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) is the first ETF in the market to track the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, which encompasses various segments of the agricultural industry [1][5]. - As of August 2025, Huabao Fund's equity ETF assets under management reached 117.4 billion yuan, solidifying its position as a leading institution in the public fund ETF business [8]. Industry Summary - The agricultural sector has experienced a significant downturn over the past three and a half years, but recent trends indicate a recovery, with the sector's valuation remaining low [3]. - The CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index has a price-to-book ratio of 2.65, which is lower than similar indices, indicating potential for growth [3]. - The pig farming industry is currently at a low price point, with limited downside risk, and is expected to see improved profitability due to a new normal of stable production and price increases over the next 1-3 years [3]. - The seed industry is receiving increased governmental focus, with advancements in biotechnology expected to enhance competitiveness among leading companies [4]. - The CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index has outperformed similar thematic indices and broad market indices since its inception, with a cumulative return of 85.73% from December 2013 to July 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) by Huabao Fund is expected to capitalize on the recovery of the A-share market and the low valuation of the agricultural sector, particularly benefiting from the upward trend in the pig cycle [1][2][6]. Company Summary - Huabao Fund has served 64.12 million clients and generated a total profit of 83.2 billion yuan for fund holders, with cumulative dividends reaching 59.4 billion yuan as of June 2025 [1][5]. - The Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery ETF (159275) is the first ETF in the market to track the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index, which covers key sectors such as pig farming, aquatic feed, animal health, and seeds [1][4]. - Huabao Fund has a total asset management scale of 117.4 billion yuan in equity ETFs, solidifying its position as a leading institution in the ETF business [5]. Industry Summary - The agricultural sector has experienced a significant rebound following a prolonged downturn, with the CSI Agricultural, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Index currently at a price-to-book ratio of 2.65, which is lower than similar indices [2][4]. - The pig farming industry is at a low price point, with limited downside potential, and is expected to see improved profitability for quality enterprises in the next 1-3 years due to a new normal of stable production and price increases [2][3]. - The seed industry is receiving increased attention from national policies, with advancements in biotechnology and the potential for accelerated commercialization of genetically modified crops [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Expected to be volatile in the short term and likely to strengthen in the medium term [5] - **Protein Meal**: Expected to remain range - bound [5] - **Corn and Starch**: Short - term: Consider closing out short positions and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; Long - term: Support for low - buying in far - month contracts [6][7] - **Hogs**: Expected to be volatile. Spot and near - month prices are likely to be weak, while far - month contracts are supported by de - capacity expectations [1][7] - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [11] - **Cotton**: Short - term: Range - bound; After new cotton is on the market: May face downward pressure [11][12] - **Sugar**: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish in the long term; Short - term: Range - bound between 5500 - 5750 [15] - **Pulp**: Expected to be volatile [16] - **Logs**: Expected to be weak in the near term and stronger in the far term [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex pattern with different trends for various products. The hog cycle is still in a downward phase in the short - to - medium term but may turn around in 2026 if de - capacity policies are implemented. Oils and fats are affected by factors such as weather, trade, and demand, with short - term volatility and medium - term upward potential. Protein meal is expected to remain range - bound. Other products like natural rubber, cotton, etc., also have their own supply - demand and market factors influencing their price trends [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: Due to concerns about US soybean demand, US soybeans declined on Wednesday, and domestic oils continued to consolidate. The macro environment includes a weaker US dollar and falling crude oil prices. The US soybean growing area is affected by drought, and the export outlook is pessimistic. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decrease seasonally, and palm oil inventory accumulation may be limited. Rapeseed oil inventory is slowly falling but still high year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: Short - term: Volatile adjustment; Medium - term: Likely to strengthen [5] 3.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: International soybean prices are affected by weather, with a possible reduction in US soybean yields in the September report. Brazilian soybean premiums have adjusted, and US soybean exports are affected by the trade war. Domestically, the market is range - bound, and demand may improve as the temperature drops [5] - **Outlook**: Range - bound. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low levels [5] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: Corn prices are generally stable, with local declines. Supply is affected by the release of old - crop inventory and the upcoming new - crop supply. Demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. The price difference between corn and wheat is increasing, and wheat substitution may decline [6][7] - **Outlook**: Short - term: Close out short positions and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds; Long - term: Support for low - buying in far - month contracts [6][7] 3.4 Hogs - **Logic**: Supply is abundant in the short term, with an expected increase in the second half of the year. Demand shows a stable ratio of fat to lean pigs. Inventory weight has decreased slightly. In the long term, de - capacity policies may drive price increases in 2026 if implemented [1][7] - **Outlook**: Volatile. Spot and near - month prices are likely to be weak, while far - month contracts are supported by de - capacity expectations [1][7] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The price is range - bound between 157 - 161. There are many speculation themes, and the short - term supply is limited while demand is stable. The price may rise due to seasonality [10] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [10] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The price is range - bound, following natural rubber and supported by the cost of raw material butadiene. Butadiene supply is under no significant pressure, and demand is stable [11] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly bullish in the short term [11] 3.7 Cotton - **Logic**: The current low - inventory and improving - demand situation provides support for cotton prices. The expected increase in purchase prices is limited by the expected large increase in new cotton production. After new cotton is on the market, prices may face downward pressure [11][12] - **Outlook**: Short - term: Range - bound; After new cotton is on the market: May face downward pressure [11][12] 3.8 Sugar - **Logic**: International sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic imports are rising, resulting in downward pressure on prices [15] - **Outlook**: Long - term: Volatile and slightly bearish; Short - term: Range - bound between 5500 - 5750 [15] 3.9 Pulp - **Logic**: The decline is mainly due to the low acceptance of BCTMP pulp. After the 09 contract delivery, the pressure may be alleviated. The market shows a differentiated performance among different types of pulp [16] - **Outlook**: Volatile [16] 3.10 Logs - **Logic**: The price decline is due to lower foreign quotes and weaker domestic spot prices. The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. Supply pressure will ease in the coming weeks [17][18] - **Outlook**: Weak in the near term and stronger in the far term [18]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-9-3 九月出栏继续增加，猪价压力持续 油脂：短期或继续震荡调整，等待进一步信息指引 蛋白粕：关注下沿支撑，盘面料延续区间震荡 玉米/淀粉：贸易商提前布局囤货，情绪不易过度悲观 生猪：9月出栏继续增加，猪价压力持续 橡胶：胶价上行驱动有限，但下方支撑偏强 合成橡胶：盘面维持区间震荡 纸浆：现货成交清淡，纸浆期货核心驱动难定 棉花：棉价震荡整理，关注收购价 白糖：供应压力边际增大，糖价偏弱运行 原木：弱现实与旺季预期博弈 【异动品种】 ⽣猪观点：9⽉出栏继续增加，猪价压⼒持续 逻辑：（1）供应：短期，9月计划出栏量预计保持环增趋势，猪源供应整 体充裕。中期，2025年上半年全国能繁母猪产能尚在高位波动，并且1月~ 7月新生仔猪数量持续环比增加，按照仔猪→商品猪6个月出栏时间推算， 预计下半年生猪出栏呈增量趋势，周期仍受供应压制。长期，7月"反内 卷"政策引导生猪产业"降重+减产"，农业部、发改委、中畜协开会落 实政策精神，8月农业部继续表示"持续推进生猪产能综合调控"。但是 当前生猪养殖尚有利润，主动减产存在阻力，7月钢联、涌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Hai Da Group and "Buy-B" for Sheng Nong Development, with several other companies rated as "Increase-A" or "Increase-B" [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown a market performance with the CSI 300 index increasing by 2.71% and the agricultural sector rising by 2.02% during the week of August 25 to August 31 [2][20]. - The report highlights a recovery cycle in the feed industry and marginal improvements in livestock farming, suggesting potential growth opportunities [4][5]. - The report indicates that the current market sentiment may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability, while it overlooks the positive effects of declining raw material costs and potential macro demand recovery in 2025 [5][6]. Summary by Sections Swine Farming - As of August 29, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 13.25, 14.84, and 13.73 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week change of -2.21%, -3.57%, and 0.00% respectively [3][28]. - The average pork price was 19.94 yuan/kg, down 0.80% from the previous week, while the average wholesale price for piglets remained stable at 26.00 yuan/kg [3][28]. - The self-breeding profit was 32.24 yuan/head, while the profit from purchasing piglets was -148.41 yuan/head [3][28]. Poultry Farming - As of August 29, the weekly price for white feather broilers was 7.33 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous week, while the price for broiler chicks increased by 0.84% to 3.61 yuan/chick [3][43]. - The profit from broiler farming was reported at 1.37 yuan/chick, and the egg price was 7.24 yuan/kg, down 0.82% [3][43]. Feed Processing - In July 2025, the total industrial feed production in China was 28.31 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.3% and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [50]. - The report notes a significant decline in the factory prices of feed products, with the proportion of corn in compound feed at 33.1% and soybean meal at 14.1% [50]. Aquaculture - As of August 29, the prices for sea cucumbers, shrimp, and bass were stable at 90.00 yuan/kg, 320.00 yuan/kg, and 50.00 yuan/kg respectively [57]. - For freshwater products, the price of grass carp was 16.73 yuan/kg, up 0.54%, while the prices for crucian carp and carp showed slight fluctuations [57]. Crop and Grain Processing - As of August 29, the spot price for soybeans was 4005.79 yuan/ton, with corn and wheat prices at 2364.71 yuan/ton and 2428.89 yuan/ton respectively, showing slight declines [65]. - The report indicates that the prices for various mushroom products remained stable during the same period [65].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [4]. Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 3.717 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.49%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 181 million yuan, up 504.12% [1][2]. - The increase in revenue is primarily driven by a substantial rise in pig output, which reached 1.9096 million heads, marking a 74.47% year-on-year increase [2]. - The company is focusing on biological farming as its main track, showcasing strong cost control capabilities and production efficiency [2][3]. - The "Dechang Project" is progressing steadily, expected to enhance the company's breeding capacity significantly once fully operational [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.072 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.34% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.92%. However, net profit for Q2 was 52 million yuan, down 44.66% year-on-year and 60.22% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The leather products segment generated 101 million yuan in revenue, up 176.78% year-on-year, although it has not yet turned profitable due to low market prices [2]. Production and Efficiency - The company has optimized pig production management, achieving a PSY (Pigs Weaned per Sow per Year) of 28.56, which is competitive within the industry range of 25-29 heads [2]. - The feed-to-meat ratio improved to 2.57, and the survival rate for fattening pigs increased, with a target production cost of 6.50 yuan per jin for 2025 [2]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 320 million yuan, 531 million yuan, and 655 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.63 yuan, 1.04 yuan, and 1.28 yuan [4][7]. - The anticipated increase in pig output and improved production efficiency are expected to drive future performance, with a favorable market outlook as the second half of 2025 approaches [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, has achieved profitability in the first half of 2025, driven by high growth in pig sales and effective cost control measures [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a sales revenue of 3.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66.49% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 181 million yuan, compared to a loss of 44.84 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The company’s pig output reached 1.9096 million heads, representing a year-on-year growth of 74.47% [1] Group 2: Cost Management - The cost of pig farming for the first half of 2025 was approximately 6.16 yuan per kilogram [1] - The company has implemented a dual approach of "technology + management" to enhance production management and reduce costs [1] - Key measures include genetic improvement, strict biosecurity management, and optimizing breeding process management [1] Group 3: Capacity and Utilization - The company currently has a breeding capacity of over 180,000 pigs and aims to increase this capacity in an orderly manner [1] - The utilization rate of existing pig farms is approximately 85% [1] - The company plans to integrate quality capacity resources to improve capacity utilization [1] Group 4: Debt Management - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio was 64.57%, having increased for four consecutive quarters [2] - The company plans to keep the debt-to-asset ratio below 60% in the future [2]

Summary of the Livestock Farming Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The traditional pig cycle model has changed, with smallholders increasingly engaging in fattening rather than breeding, leading to reduced production volatility [1][2] - The top 35 pig farming companies now hold approximately 36% market share, indicating increased industry concentration and smaller production fluctuations [1][2] Government Policies - Since 2022, the government has implemented capacity regulation policies aimed at stabilizing market prices and controlling production [3] - Policies include setting targets for sow inventory, with a target of 39.5 million sows by July 2025, while actual slaughter numbers reached 40.42 million [3] - Adjustments to slaughter weights are also part of the measures to stabilize production and prices, addressing CPI pressures [3] Future Trends - The pig farming industry is expected to transition to a new normal characterized by stable production and price maintenance, moving away from growth and cyclical volatility [4] - Large-scale enterprises will continue to expand, benefiting from more stable production control [4][5] Company Spotlight: Muyuan Foods - Muyuan Foods has a long-term selling price assumption of 14 RMB per kilogram, with costs reduced to 11.8 RMB per kilogram, leading to a long-term average cost of approximately 11.5 RMB per kilogram [5] - The profit per kilogram is 2.5 RMB, translating to a profit of 300 RMB per pig [5] - The company's annual profit is projected to exceed 25 billion RMB, with free cash flow estimated between 35 billion to 50 billion RMB, while its current market capitalization of 300 billion RMB is considered significantly undervalued [5] Investment Opportunities - There is a sector-wide opportunity for valuation reconfiguration among high-quality pig farming stocks [6] - Given the strong profitability and stable cash flow of large-scale companies like Muyuan Foods, active investment in high-quality pig farming stocks is recommended under the new normal of stable production and price maintenance [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment strategies and performance of Shen Li, a fund manager at Caitong Fund, emphasizing the importance of expanding one's investment capability circle and maintaining a balanced portfolio to achieve consistent positive returns in the public fund industry [4][5]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Shen Li has successfully managed the Caitong New Vision Mixed A fund, achieving positive returns for six consecutive accounting years since 2019, with a remarkable 118.88% return over the past year as of August 25 [4][5]. - The strategy involves reducing exposure to single industries and utilizing the negative correlation between sectors such as consumption, technology, and cyclical industries to hedge risks [9]. - Shen Li emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced portfolio to avoid over-concentration in any single sector, which can lead to biased decision-making and poor responses to market changes [8][9]. Group 2: Market Adaptation - In 2022, Shen Li focused on investment opportunities in the livestock industry, capitalizing on the "pig cycle" as a rare investment opportunity within the consumer sector, which contributed to his positive performance amidst a challenging market [6]. - In 2023, he adopted a more stringent selection process within the consumer sector, balancing his portfolio across food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and chemicals, particularly targeting stocks at the cyclical bottom [6][7]. Group 3: Future Focus Areas - Shen Li is currently concentrating on emerging fields such as AI hardware and semiconductors, while also keeping an eye on traditional and new consumer sectors, as well as livestock investment opportunities [7][11]. - The AI industry is viewed as a major driver of economic growth, with significant investment interest and increasing penetration across various downstream sectors [11]. - The trend towards domestic semiconductor production is accelerating, with a second upward cycle for semiconductor companies since 2018, driven by factors such as AI-induced replacement demand and domestic production [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 49.87 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.47 billion yuan, up 161.8% year-on-year [1]. - The company has shown stable growth in pig production, with 16.617 million pigs sold in H1 2025, a 15.6% increase year-on-year, and revenue from pig sales reaching 32.74 billion yuan, a 16.3% increase year-on-year [2]. - The chicken production metrics remain stable, with 600 million chickens sold in H1 2025, a 9.2% increase year-on-year, although revenue from chicken sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year [3]. - The company's balance sheet is improving, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 50.6%, down 8.4 percentage points year-on-year, and cash reserves of 2.5 billion yuan [4]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 7.806 billion yuan, 10.310 billion yuan, and 11.449 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.17 yuan, 1.55 yuan, and 1.72 yuan [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2025 revenue was 49.87 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.47 billion yuan, marking significant growth [1]. - The company achieved a stable growth in pig production, with a total of 16.617 million pigs sold, contributing to a revenue of 32.74 billion yuan [2]. - Chicken sales totaled 600 million, with a revenue of 15.13 billion yuan, despite a decrease in average selling price [3]. Cost Management - The comprehensive cost of pig farming decreased to 12.4 yuan/kg, a reduction of approximately 2.4 yuan/kg year-on-year [2]. - The comprehensive cost of chicken farming was reduced to 11.2 yuan/kg, down 1.2 yuan/kg year-on-year [3]. Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - The company's debt-to-asset ratio improved to 50.6%, and cash reserves stood at 2.5 billion yuan [4]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was 6.47 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3% year-on-year [4]. Future Outlook - The company is projected to see a recovery in profitability in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the traditional consumption peak [4]. - The expected net profits for 2025 to 2027 indicate a positive trend in earnings growth [4].