Report Title - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20251029: Beware of Price Reversals after Peaking" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand are both strong, with low inventory pressure upstream. The price is rising due to macro - improvement and warrant cancellation. However, production is continuously increasing, downstream inventory replenishment is slowing down, and the inflection point of power demand may be approaching. It is necessary to guard against price reversals after peaking. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [2] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Market Data on October 28, 2025 - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts of carbonate lithium futures decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 260 to 340 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract decreased by 260 yuan/ton to 81640 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 729307 lots, an increase of 214852 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 488803 lots, an increase of 5325 lots [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 27335 tons, a decrease of 404 tons compared to the previous day [2] - **Spreads**: The spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spread between consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 320 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - **Base Price**: The base price (SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium average price - carbonate lithium active contract closing price) was - 3140 yuan/ton, an increase of 2210 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] 2. Raw Material Prices - The prices of spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and various lithium ores increased. For example, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 925 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [2] 3. Lithium Product Prices - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased. The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 78500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1950 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - The average prices of different types of lithium hydroxide also increased slightly. The average price of battery - grade micro - powder lithium hydroxide was 79700 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] 4. Other Related Product Prices - The average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium (99.95% domestic) was 100500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - The prices of some ternary precursors and materials increased slightly, and the prices of some cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate also increased [2] 5. Inventory Data - The SMM carbonate lithium inventory decreased. The total inventory was 130366 tons, a decrease of 2292 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory of smelters decreased by 602 tons, the inventory of downstream decreased by 2460 tons, and the inventory of others increased by 770 tons [2] 6. Industry News - On October 28, Dazhong Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary Liuzhou Chengtai Mining Investment Co., Ltd. obtained a 30 - year "Mining License" for the Hunan Jijiaoshan lithium mine. The lithium ore resource volume is 48987200 tons, equivalent to about 3.2443 million tons of carbonate equivalent. The open - pit mining scale is 20 million tons per year, which can produce 80000 tons of lithium carbonate per year [2] - Chile's lithium national strategy is advancing. The Chilean Ministry of Mining has submitted a decree to the Comptroller - General of the Republic, specifying the terms and conditions of CEOL contracts with several consortia, which will enable the development of a lithium project in the Quillagua Este area [2]

Core Insights - Lithium carbonate futures prices reached the lowest point since July 2023 in late June 2025, with fluctuations influenced by "anti-involution" policies and production halts in Ningde Times [1] - Supply of lithium carbonate is growing rapidly, with domestic production in September reaching 87,260 tons, a 2% month-on-month increase and a 52% year-on-year increase [1] - Demand for lithium carbonate remains strong, driven by the production of battery materials, with significant increases in both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [3] Supply Analysis - The production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials showed mixed results: spodumene production increased by 5%, while lithium mica decreased by 15%, and salt lake production rose by 10% [1] - Cumulative lithium carbonate production from January to September reached 643,700 tons, a 42% year-on-year increase [1] - Despite potential disruptions in the Jiangxi Yichun mining area, new capacities from spodumene and salt lakes are expected to push October production close to 90,000 tons [1] Demand Analysis - The production of lithium iron phosphate in September was 356,800 tons, reflecting a 12.8% month-on-month and a 42% year-on-year increase, with expectations for continued growth in October [3] - Ternary material production in September was 75,000 tons, showing a 2.6% month-on-month and a 31.5% year-on-year increase [3] - The overall production of power batteries and other batteries in September increased by 50% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 44% from January to September [3] Inventory and Market Trends - As of last week, lithium carbonate weekly inventory stood at 132,700 tons, a decrease of 2,143 tons, indicating an accelerated destocking process [4] - The number of registered futures warehouse receipts for lithium carbonate has decreased significantly, suggesting improved demand from downstream and traders [4] - The futures market shows signs of a potential rebound, with the main contract price breaking through the upper range of 75,000 yuan/ton, indicating a possibility of continued upward movement [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The de - stocking of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts continues, and the short - term price is relatively firm [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 75,580 (down 120 compared to T - 1), the trading volume was 102,894 (down 66,214 compared to T - 1), and the open interest was 113,411 (down 25,023 compared to T - 1). For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 75,980 (up 40 compared to T - 1), the trading volume was 197,979 (up 9,188 compared to T - 1), and the open interest was 310,199 (up 16,916 compared to T - 1). The warehouse receipt volume was 29,892 (down 813 compared to T - 1) [2]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 854 (up 3 compared to T - 1), the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,845 (up 20 compared to T - 1), the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,100 (up 100 compared to T - 1), and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF) was 9,400 (unchanged compared to T - 1) [2]. - **Lithium Salt and Related Product Data**: The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,850 (up 100 compared to T - 1), the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 78,100 (unchanged compared to T - 1), and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF) was 9,450 (unchanged compared to T - 1). The prices of various types of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and other products also showed different changes [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,110 yuan/ton, up 119 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [3]. - Kodal announced on October 20 that the first batch of 30,000 tons of spodumene concentrate from the Bougouni project will be shipped from the Port of San Pedro in Côte d'Ivoire to Yangpu Port in Hainan, marking the official start of the mine's export business. The transportation is expected to take 4 to 6 weeks, and 45,000 tons of inventory will be shipped later [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Group 1: Report Core View - The spot supply of lithium carbonate is tight, and the upward - oscillating trend is expected to continue [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong market sentiment [4] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Contracts - 2511 contract: The closing price is 75,700, the trading volume is 169,108, and the open interest is 138,434. Compared with different time points (T - 1, T - 5, etc.), there are corresponding changes in price, volume, and open interest [2] - 2601 contract: The closing price is 75,940, the trading volume is 188,791, and the open interest is 293,283. Similar to the 2511 contract, there are changes compared with different time points [2] Basis and Other Data - Spot - 2511 is - 1,700, and Spot - 2601 is - 1,940. The basis between 2511 and 2601 is - 240. The difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,250, and Spot - CIF is 7,043 [2] Raw Materials and Lithium Salts - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 851, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,825. Battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,000, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,750. There are also prices and price changes for other lithium salts and related products [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 73,991 yuan/ton, up 642 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,000 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,750 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton [3] - In September, China imported 19,597 tons of lithium carbonate, a 10% decrease from the previous month but a 20% increase year - on - year. Exports were 151 tons, a 59% decrease from the previous month and a 9% decrease year - on - year [3][4]

Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] Report Date - October 20, 2025 [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply and demand of carbonate lithium will remain in a tight balance until there is a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi. It is expected that subsequent lithium salt imports from South America will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is strong, with large battery cell manufacturers increasing their production schedules by 8% in September and a projected 4% increase in cathode production in October. There are ongoing risks related to mining licenses, and with profit recovery, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase, leading to a rise in the cost center. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery manufacturers is increasing, and warehouse receipts are being continuously cancelled. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the Yichun mining end, and it is recommended to trade cautiously and monitor the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoints 3.1.1 Supply Situation - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's carbonate lithium production increased by 326 tons week - on - week to 22,765 tons, and September's production increased by 3.3% month - on - month to 95,442 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has been confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the first half of the year, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025. In August 2025, China imported 619,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 17.5% decrease from the previous month. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium concentrate imports from Australia decreased by 50.5% month - on - month, imports from Zimbabwe were 118,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 83.9%, imports from Nigeria were 105,000 tons, a 9.5% decrease, and imports from Mali increased by 73,000 tons. In August, 21,847 tons of carbonate lithium were imported, a 57.8% month - on - month increase, with 15,608 tons from Chile, accounting for 71%. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, and some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium from purchased lithium ore faced cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. 3.1.2 Demand Situation - The overall production schedule in October increased month - on - month, and large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increased by 8% in September. In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 37.3% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease but a 23.9% year - on - year increase. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 134.5 GWh, a 5.7% month - on - month increase and a 45.6% year - on - year increase. The trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory Situation - This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking trend. Factory inventory decreased by 2,255 tons, market inventory increased by 13,194 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 11,983 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Strategy Recommendations - Given the current situation, it is recommended to trade cautiously and continuously monitor the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production and inventory of carbonate lithium, average price of lithium concentrate imports, production proportion of carbonate lithium from different raw materials in September 2024, differences between domestic power battery production and loading volume, average production cost of carbonate lithium, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, and average price of ternary materials 8 - series NCA type [8][9][11][24] etc.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment strategy: Wait and see [5][90] - Operating range: 66,000 - 76,000 [5][90] Core Viewpoint of the Report - Supply contraction expectations are weakening, supply is at a high level, and downstream buyers after the holiday still mainly adopt a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the driving force brought by the inflection point of downstream inventory replenishment [6][91] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The basis has a premium of 810 yuan/ton [10] 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Ore - In September, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,800 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%; China's lithium mica production was 8,150 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 9.2% [14] - In August, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 470,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [18] - In July, the amount of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 88,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [22] 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Battery Recycling - In October, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 27,934 tons, flat month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 30.1% [25] 1.2 Supply Side - Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 20,635 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% - In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate rose to 21,847 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.8% and a year - on - year increase of 23.5% [30] - In September, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [32] 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Hydroxide - In October, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 40%, and the output was 27,020 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.8% - In August, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 5,673 tons, a month - on - month increase of 354.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 45.6% [39] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 84,467 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% - In September, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 68%, and the output was 311,670 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18% and a year - on - year increase of 59% [42] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 16,976 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% - In August, the import volume remained flat, and the export volume increased [48] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Ternary Precursors - In October, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 48%, and the output was 90,540 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% - In August, the export volume increased [53] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In October, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the output was 12,124 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4% - In October, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, and the output was 12,880 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 72% [54] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Electrolyte - In October, the production of electrolyte was 200,180 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 30% - In August, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased [62] 1.4 Terminal Demand - Power Batteries - In August, the production of power batteries was 139.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 37.8% - In August, the installed capacity of power batteries was 62.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.8% and a year - on - year increase of 32.4% [65] 1.4 Terminal Demand - New Energy Vehicles - In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a month - on - month increase of 11.9% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% - In August, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.395 million, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 26.8% [68] 1.4 Terminal Demand - Energy Storage - In October, the production of energy - storage batteries was 53.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 40.1% - In August, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.7 GW, a month - on - month increase of 14.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 60.4%; the winning bid capacity scale was 18.65 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.5% [73] 1.4 Terminal Demand - Consumer Electronics - In August, the production of Chinese smartphones was 10.04 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4% - In August, the production of Chinese micro - electronic computers was 2.769 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [76] 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore declined. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 19 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 45 yuan/ton [81] 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2,024 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory increased by 1,255 tons, the downstream's inventory decreased by 1,128 tons, and other inventories decreased by 2,150 tons [86] - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 3,562 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 47 tons [87] 1.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: Wait and see - Operating range: 66,000 - 76,000 - Logic: The supply of lithium mica mines in Jiangxi remains at a low level, the production of lithium spodumene increases slightly, and the import volume of lithium ore decreases. The production of lithium carbonate continues to grow, the import volume of lithium salts increases, the export volume of lithium salts from Chile declines seasonally, and the recycling end maintains growth. New energy vehicles grow steadily, the production of cathodes is stable, the production of battery cells rises, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increases, and the inventory of ternary materials decreases. The production and winning bid scale of energy - storage batteries increase. The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica decline. The overall inventory decreases, the smelter's inventory increases, and the downstream and other inventories decrease. [90][91]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - On October 9, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium decreased. Both supply and demand were strong. The inventory pressure of upstream producers was not significant. The expectation of lithium ore supply contraction weakened, and the downstream inventory reached its peak. The demand inflection point had arrived. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Wait for the situation after Jiangxi's mining end submits the reserve report [1] - The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [1] Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market Data - Futures contract closing prices: The closing price of the near - month contract was 72,740 yuan/ton, the first - continuous contract was 72,860 yuan/ton, the second - continuous contract was 72,860 yuan/ton, and the third - continuous contract was 72,880 yuan/ton [1] - Futures trading volume and open interest: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 361,093 lots (+43,635), and the open interest was 229,022 lots (-2,942) [1] - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipt inventory was 42,379 tons (+670), and the social inventory decreased. The inventory of smelting plants, downstream, and others decreased [1] - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 240 yuan/ton (-60), the spread between the first - and second - continuous contracts was -40 yuan/ton (-20), and the spread between the second - and third - continuous contracts was 0 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Basis: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 750 yuan/ton (-540) [1] Spot Market Data - Lithium ore prices: Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) average price was 843 US dollars/ton (-15), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) average price was 1,110 yuan/ton (-15), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) average price was 1,835 yuan/ton (-20), etc. [1] - Lithium compound prices: Battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) average price was 73,550 yuan/ton (0), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) average price was 71,300 yuan/ton (0), etc. [1] - Other battery material prices: The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 90,450 yuan/ton (+3,500), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 122,350 yuan/ton (+1,500), etc. [1] Supply and Demand Information - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased [1] - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In September, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down. The 3C product shipments were average. In September, the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries increased [1] Industry News - German resource company Neptune Energy announced that an international evaluation company found that the lithium ore resources in the Altmark region of Saxony - Anhalt, Germany, had a lithium carbonate equivalent of 43 million tons. The company plans to produce battery - grade lithium from local brine lithium resources using the DLE direct lithium extraction method [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On September 18, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated downward. The current market trading was weak, the basis changed from discount to premium, the price of spodumene concentrate increased, and the price of lithium mica remained flat. Both supply and demand were strong, the upstream inventory pressure was not significant, and the resumption of production of spodumene mines was actively progressing, weakening the expectation of supply contraction. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of downstream replenishment. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On September 18, 2025, the trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 502,269 (+158,406), and the open interest was 281,411 (-13,213). The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts all decreased compared to the previous day. The price differences between different contracts and the basis also showed certain changes [1]. Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 570 yuan/ton higher than the closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 844 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica remained unchanged. The prices of various lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also had different degrees of changes [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium manganate powder increased, and the production of power batteries was basically flat. In September, the production of lithium manganate powder and the production plan of lithium manganate increased. Terminal demand: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. Inventory - On September 18, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts were 39,354 tons (+120), the social inventory decreased, the inventory of smelters and others decreased, and the downstream inventory was tight [1]. Industry News - Bandera now expects to achieve a post - tax net present value of $1.45 billion (previously estimated at $1.31 billion) due to increased reserves and mine design optimization. Saycona Mining's expansion plan for the North American Lithium (NAL) project in Quebec, Canada, will significantly improve project economics by increasing production and reducing costs. The annual average output of spodumene concentrate will increase from 192,000 tons to 315,000 tons, and the unit cost will decrease [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The current supply and demand are both weak, with little inventory pressure upstream. As the resumption of lithium mines is approaching actively, the expectation of supply contraction is weakening. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level, and it is necessary to wait for the downstream restocking point. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures Market - **Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures all increased compared to the previous day. For example, the near - month contract closed at 73,500 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 343,863 lots (- 156,404), and the open interest was 294,624 lots (- 5,813) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 39,234 tons, an increase of 410 tons from the previous day [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price minus the closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was - 490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Commodity Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars from the previous day; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,105 yuan/ton [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%, domestic) was 73,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan from the previous day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%, domestic) was 70,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Products**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate also showed different degrees of change [1]. 3.3 Market News - Pantera Lithium's shareholders voted overwhelmingly in favor of selling its subsidiary Daytona Lithium Pty Ltd to Energy Exploration Technologies (EnergyX). EnergyX is advancing its Lonestar Lithium project in New Markover, and this acquisition will further expand its resource reserves in the Smackover area, where the lithium resource volume may exceed 4 million tons [1]. 3.4 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of lithium mica remained flat [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the trial production and scheduled production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - The registered warehouse receipts were 39,234 tons (+ 410 tons), the social inventory decreased, the inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, and the downstream inventory increased [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 16, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures opened high and closed low. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the discount even widened. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the price of mica also rose. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed that the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down in August, and the 3C shipments were average. The planned production of energy storage batteries increased in September. The registered warehouse inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased. Smelters and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. The expected supply contraction is weakening as the resumption of lithium mines is progressing actively. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. Investors should be vigilant about the downstream restocking point [1]. - The trading strategy suggests short - selling on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Contract Closing Prices**: On September 16, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 73060 yuan/ton, 73180 yuan/ton, 73340 yuan/ton, and 73340 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 540 yuan/ton, 500 yuan/ton, 460 yuan/ton, and 460 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 500267 hands (+17477), and the open interest was 300437 hands (-9009) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 38824 tons (-139 tons) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 120 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 160 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 330 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 853 US dollars/ton (+5 US dollars/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1075 yuan/ton (-82.5 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 1815 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:6% - 7%) was 6090 yuan/ton (+115 yuan/ton), and the average price of amblygonite (Li2O:7% - 8%) was 7065 yuan/ton (-135 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 72850 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 70600 yuan/ton (+400 yuan/ton), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 9.3 US dollars/kg (unchanged), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained/domestic) was 74050 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized/domestic) was 79020 yuan/ton (-100 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Other Lithium - Related Product Prices**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%/domestic) was 56650 yuan/ton (+150 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 81250 yuan/ton (+600 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 79125 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 74675 yuan/ton (+225 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 93800 yuan/ton (+300 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 119650 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114375 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 118325 yuan/ton (+200 yuan/ton), the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 146650 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 33470 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy - storage type) was 32075 yuan/ton (+95 yuan/ton), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) was 29300 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton), and the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 231500 yuan/ton (+750 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Cobalt - Related Product Prices**: The average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%/imported) was 273000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was 57400 yuan/ton (+725 yuan/ton), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide (≥72.8%/domestic) was 226500 yuan/ton (+1500 yuan/ton) [1]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of smelters was 36213 tons (-3262 tons), the inventory of downstream sectors was 58279 tons (+3072 tons), the inventory of other sectors was 44020 tons (-1390 tons), and the total inventory was 138512 tons (-1580 tons) [1]. 3.4 Company News - On September 16, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792.SZ) stated on the investor interaction platform that the original annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate in Lanke Lithium Industry was upgraded through technological innovation, and the current capacity has been increased to 40,000 tons per year. The company will continue to benchmark against the industry's advanced level to further improve resource extraction and utilization efficiency and promote high - quality industrial development [1].