Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to January to April [1] - Tax revenue for the same period was 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points; non-tax revenue was 17,467 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 1.5 percentage points [1] - In May, the general public budget revenue growth rate was 0.1%, slowing by 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, with tax revenue growth dropping from 1.9% to 0.6% and non-tax revenue turning negative at -2.2% [2] Group 2: Fiscal Expenditure - From January to May, national general public budget expenditure was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with the growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points [1] - In May, general public budget expenditure grew by 2.6% year-on-year, slowing by 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, with significant declines in infrastructure spending, which fell by 7.7% [4] - Key areas of expenditure such as social security and employment saw a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while education and health spending grew by 6.7% and 3.9%, respectively [4] Group 3: Economic Analysis - The slowdown in revenue is attributed to factors such as the decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), the unsustainable high growth of non-tax revenue, and weakened land transfer income [1] - The analysis indicates that the increase in value-added tax revenue reflects a trend of economic recovery, supported by robust growth in the equipment manufacturing sector [2] - The government is expected to accelerate bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, especially in light of the revenue slowdown and strong expenditure performance in the first four months [5]

广 发证券资 深宏观分析师 吴棋滢 wuqiying@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 5 月财政收入增速小幅回踩。公共财政收入同比、税收收入同比分别回落至 0.1% （前值 1.9% ）、 0.6% （前值 1.9% ），但 仍位于正值区间，强于一季度表现。非税收入同比 -2.2% ，为 2024 年以来首次转负。应与财政收入对非税收入的依赖有所减轻有关， 今年预算对非税收入增长目标有明显下调 （目标增速 -14.2% ）。前 5 个月公共财政收入累计同比 -0.3% ，距离年初目标差值（ 0.37 个百分点）较前期有所收窄。 第二， 分税种来看，国内增值税表现较好，累计同比 2.4% ，或与工业企业利润增速好转有关；个人所得税表现较好，累计同比涨幅 扩大至 8.2% （去年年度为 -1.7% ），与低基数、汇算清缴、二手房交易较为活跃、股市年内表现较好背景下部分股东减持等因素有 关。消费税表现中性，和今年较高的社零增速有一定直观上的反差，主要是消费税中烟酒车油等占比较高，其中前两者增速不快；汽车 零售辆增速较快，但由于降价，零售额增速并不快。税收收入的主要拖累项一是外贸环节相关税种， ...

2025.06. 21 本文字数：1590，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 6月20日，财政部公布2025年1—5月财政收支情况，总体看财政收入平稳，财政支出保持一定扩张 力度，以落实积极财政政策，扩大总需求，推动经济平稳运行。 从财政收入端来看，财政部数据显示，1—5月，全国一般公共预算收入96623亿元，同比下降 0.3%。这一降幅较前4个月（-0.4%）略微缩窄。全国政府性基金预算收入15483亿元，同比下降 6.9%。这一降幅较前4个月（-6.7%）略微扩大。 全国一般公共预算收入由税收收入和非税收入组成，且以前者为主。税收收入又被称之为经济"晴雨 表"。 财政部数据显示，今年前5个月全国一般公共预算收入中，全国税收收入79156亿元，同比下降 1.6%，这一降幅较前4个月（-2.1%）有小幅缩窄。 导致今年以来税收收入下滑有多重因素。首先，部分企业经营困难，利润下滑，导致第二大税种企业 所得税收入下滑。 财政部数据显示，今年前5个月企业所得税收入（21826亿元）同比下降2.5%。不过今年以来，规模 以上工业企业利润总额同比增速由负转正，企业所得税收入降幅持续缩窄。 其次，房地产市场 ...

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to May 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 96,623 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, which is a slight improvement from the previous four months' decline of 0.4% [1] - Government fund budget revenue was 15,483 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year, slightly worsening from the previous four months' decline of 6.7% [1] Tax Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue, which is a key economic indicator, accounted for 79,156 billion yuan of the general public budget revenue, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, an improvement from the previous four months' decline of 2.1% [1] - Corporate income tax revenue was 21,826 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing as profits of large industrial enterprises have turned positive [1][2] Impact of Real Estate and Trade - The real estate market remains sluggish, leading to significant declines in related tax revenues, such as deed tax and land value-added tax, which experienced double-digit decreases [2] - Complex foreign trade conditions, including trade wars, have negatively impacted fiscal revenue, with notable declines in import VAT, consumption tax, and tariffs [2] Price Levels and Tax Base - Low price levels have compressed nominal fiscal revenue, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% in May 2025, affecting tax revenue growth based on nominal value [3] - Domestic VAT revenue was 30,850 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [3] Sector-Specific Tax Revenue Growth - Despite overall tax revenue challenges, certain sectors showed strong performance, with equipment manufacturing tax revenue growing by 28.8% and computer communication equipment manufacturing by 11.9% [4] - The cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors saw a tax revenue increase of 7.8%, while the information transmission and software services sector grew by 10% [4] Non-Tax Revenue and Budget Adjustments - Non-tax revenue reached 17,467 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, primarily driven by asset activation [5] - Local government fund budget revenue was 13,635 billion yuan, down 8.3% year-on-year, with land use rights transfer revenue declining by 11.9% [6] Fiscal Policy and Expenditure - To counteract declining tax revenue, the government has implemented a more proactive fiscal policy, accelerating bond issuance to support expenditure [6] - General public budget expenditure was 112,953 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, which is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate [7] - Social security and employment expenditures grew by 9.2%, and education expenditures increased by 6.7%, both exceeding the average expenditure growth rate [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the continuous growth in both revenue and expenditure in the region's fiscal budget for the first five months of the year, with public budget revenue reaching 755.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and public budget expenditure totaling 2563.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - Tax revenue has shown a positive trend, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% for the first five months, improving significantly from a mere 0.04% growth in the first four months [1] - Expenditure from municipal and county finances has also increased, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%, and 13 out of 14 municipalities reporting positive growth in expenditure [1] Group 2 - In the area of public welfare, spending reached a historical high of 2014.88 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, maintaining a proportion of around 80% of total public budget expenditure [2] - Significant growth was observed in various sectors, including commercial services (38.2%), energy conservation and environmental protection (31.8%), transportation (25.8%), technology (15.1%), agriculture (10.3%), and education (8.9%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, announced that tax revenues for the current reporting season have exceeded targets, indicating a stronger-than-expected fiscal performance [1] Group 1 - The reported tax revenues are higher than anticipated, suggesting improved economic conditions [1] - This increase in tax revenue may have implications for government spending and budget planning [1] - The performance of tax revenues could influence future fiscal policies and economic forecasts [1]

财政部日前公布了2025年1至4月的财政收支情况。从收入和支出两端看，4月财政收入继续改善，财政 支出节奏加快，各级财政部门持续加大对惠民生、促消费、增后劲的支持力度。 财政部公布的数据显示，1至4月，全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%，降幅比一季度收窄0.7个百 分点。其中，税收收入65556亿元，同比下降2.1%，降幅比一季度收窄1.4个百分点。值得一提的是，税收收入在4 月份增长了1.9%，月度增幅由负转正。 财政支出方面，东方金诚研报认为，4月一般公共预算支出同比增长5.8%，增速较3月加快0.1个百分点，大幅高于 当月一般公共预算收入增速，显示财政支出端延续稳增长取向。从支出进度来看，1至4月一般公共预算支出完成 全年预算的31.5%，高于过去五年同期平均水平30.7%。 从结构上看，4月基建类四项支出合计同比增长2.2%，增速较上月加快1.7个百分点，其中，城乡社区事务、交通 运输支出增速明显加快，农林水事务、节能环保支出增速有所放缓。民生类支出中，4月社会保障、科技、卫生健 康支出增速加快，其中，社会保障支出同比增速从上月的9.0%进一步提速至9.6%，或说明稳就业政策力度加大 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that tax revenue in the UK has increased compared to April of last year, partly due to the rise in national insurance contributions [1] - However, this increase in tax revenue has been offset by rising expenditures, attributed to the increased costs of public services and the growth in various welfare and state pension payments [1]

Core Insights - The overall public budget revenue for the first four months of the year was 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Public budget expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking the fastest expenditure progress for the same period since 2020 [1] - In April, public budget revenue grew by 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue growth accelerating by 4.1 percentage points to 1.9% [1][2] - Non-tax revenue for the first four months was 15,060 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the growth rate slowed to 1.7% in April [3] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for April turned positive with a growth rate of 1.9%, while the total tax revenue for January to April was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first quarter [2] - Major tax categories showed a decline in growth rates, with VAT, consumption tax, and corporate income tax experiencing significant drops [2] - Personal income tax saw a substantial rebound due to a low base from the previous year, rising from -58.5% to 9.0% [2] Expenditure Analysis - Public budget expenditure in April grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in social security and employment spending (8.5%) and education spending (7.4%) [4] - Infrastructure spending showed a growth of 2.2%, with notable increases in urban community and transportation expenditures [4] - Overall, the acceleration in fiscal spending in April indicates a proactive approach to stabilize growth amid external challenges [4] Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while key areas of expenditure are being supported, the ongoing decline in cumulative fiscal revenue indicates underlying economic issues, particularly insufficient effective demand [5] - The focus of fiscal policy in the second quarter is expected to be on accelerating the implementation of existing policies rather than introducing large-scale new measures [5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年05月21日 2025 年 4 月财政数据快评 税收收入回正，广义支出提速 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 财政部公布 2025 年 1-4 月财政数据，全国一般公共预算收入 80616 亿，同比下降 0.4%。中央一般公共预 算收入 33928 亿，同比下降 3.8%；地方一般公共预算本级收入 46688 亿元，同比增长 2.2%。全国一般公 共预算支出 93581 亿，同比增长 4.6%。中央一般公共预算本级支出 12282 亿，同比增长 9%；地方一般公 共预算支出 81299 亿，同比增长 3.9% 评论： 税收增速由负转正。4 月一般公共预算收入当月同比 1.9%，前值 0.3%。税收收入当月同比 1.9%，前值-2.2%； 非税收入当月同比 1.7%，前值 5.9%，继 ...