Report Information - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [1] - Report Title: 2025 November Fiscal Data Review - Research Team: Fixed Income Research Team [2] - Analysts: Chen Xi, Wang Shuaizhong [3] - Event: The Ministry of Finance announced the fiscal data for November 2025 [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In 2025 H2, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly [8] - Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [8] - The bond - stock allocation continues to shift, and bond yields are expected to rise continuously [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog 11 - month Fiscal Data Focus - Tax revenue continued positive growth, and the decline of non - tax revenue narrowed. In November, tax revenue increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and has maintained positive growth for 8 consecutive months. The decline of corporate income tax and individual income tax in November may be the main reason for the slowdown in tax revenue growth. The securities trading stamp tax increased by 2.3% year - on - year in November, with a slower growth rate. The importance of investing in people is highlighted, and attention should be paid to fiscal expenditures in related industries. [5] - The decline in land transfer income continued to drag down government fund revenue. From January to November, government fund revenue decreased by 4.9% year - on - year, with land transfer income down 10.7%. The real estate market is in a transition period, and the ebb of land finance may still drag down government fund revenue. [5] - Government fund expenditures turned positive year - on - year in November, reaching 2.8%, up 41 pct from October. Central government fund expenditures increased significantly to 31.5%, up 25.2 pct from the previous value. In October, the central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit. The issuance of new special bonds accelerated in November, and the issuance progress reached 101.3% by the end of November, up 11.2 pct from October. [6] General Public Budget - **Income**: In November, general public budget income decreased by 0.02% year - on - year. Central income decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, while local income increased by 4.1%. Tax revenue items such as foreign - trade enterprise export tax rebates, property tax, deed tax, land value - added tax, urban land use tax, and environmental protection tax increased compared with October. Non - tax revenue decreased by 10.8% year - on - year. [7] - **Expenditure**: In November, general public budget expenditure decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. Central expenditure increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and local expenditure decreased by 5.1%. Infrastructure expenditure items such as urban and rural community affairs and agriculture, forestry, and water affairs decreased year - on - year, and the increase in central expenditure drove the year - on - year increase in fiscal expenditure in November compared with the previous value. [7] Government Fund Budget - **Income**: In November, government fund income decreased by 15.8% year - on - year. Central income decreased by 9.1% year - on - year, and local income decreased by 16.1%. Land transfer income decreased by 26.8% year - on - year. [7] - **Expenditure**: In November, government fund expenditure increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Central expenditure increased by 31.5% year - on - year, and local expenditure increased by 1.7%. Land transfer expenditures decreased by 7.5% year - on - year. The growth rate of government fund expenditures in November increased compared with October. [7] Bond Market Viewpoint - With the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [8]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - Public fiscal revenue growth for the first 11 months of 2025 was 0.8% year-on-year, maintaining the previous month's pace[3] - Public fiscal expenditure growth for the same period was 1.4%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The deficit utilization rate for the first account was 62.2%, which is 9.2 percentage points lower than the average of the past three years[3] Tax Revenue Insights - National tax revenue growth for the first 11 months was 1.80%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Non-tax revenue saw a decline of 3.7%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by a high base from last year[3] - Tax revenue growth has been positive for 8 consecutive months, reaching 2.8% in November, despite a slight decline from the previous month[3] Fiscal Spending Focus - Science and technology expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year, while social welfare spending increased by 5.4%, both outpacing overall fiscal expenditure growth[3] - Infrastructure spending remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 7.7%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] Government Fund Performance - Government fund revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 13.7%, showing a marginal decline from the previous month[3] - In November, government fund revenue fell by 15.8%, but expenditure grew by 2.8%, indicating stronger expenditure performance[3] Overall Fiscal Outlook - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.5 percentage points, while expenditure growth decreased by 0.7 percentage points, suggesting less urgency for short-term fiscal stimulus[3] - The central economic work conference emphasized accelerating fund disbursement to promote actual spending and physical work volume[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include underperformance of growth stabilization policies, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and greater-than-expected overseas economic downturns[11]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In November 2025, the national general public budget revenue showed a year-on-year growth of -0.02%, down from 3.2% previously, indicating a significant slowdown in revenue growth due to economic fundamentals[1] - The national general public budget expenditure in November 2025 decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 9.8%[1] - The broad fiscal budget revenue completion rate for January to November 2025 was 85.3%, with a monthly year-on-year decline of 5.2% in November, higher than the same period in 2024[2] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue in November 2025 was 11,450 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, while non-tax revenue was 2,576 billion yuan, showing a decline of 10.8%[3] - The corporate income tax turned negative, reflecting a broader economic slowdown, while personal income tax maintained a high growth rate, partly due to enhanced tax collection efforts[4] Government Fund Budget Analysis - The government fund budget revenue in November 2025 decreased by 15.8% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous decline of 18.4%, primarily due to reduced land transfer income[7] - Government fund budget expenditure in November 2025 increased by 2.8% year-on-year, recovering from a previous decline of 38.2%, attributed to accelerated project funding[8] Future Fiscal Outlook - For 2026, there is a potential for a slight increase in the deficit ratio, estimated between 4.0% and 4.2%, corresponding to a deficit scale of approximately 5.89 trillion to 6.19 trillion yuan[3] - The broad fiscal deficit scale is projected to be around 11.79 trillion to 12.09 trillion yuan, with local special bonds estimated at about 4.4 trillion yuan[3]

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal revenue and expenditure data for the first eleven months of the year indicate a stable performance in public budget revenue, with a shift towards a more people-oriented fiscal policy focusing on social welfare and strategic national tasks [1][4][5]. Revenue Summary - From January to November, the total public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [2][3]. - Tax revenue amounted to 164,814 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while non-tax revenue decreased by 3.7% to 35,702 billion yuan [2]. - Central government revenue was 88,464 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year, whereas local government revenue increased by 2.2% to 112,052 billion yuan [2]. Expenditure Summary - Total public budget expenditure for the same period was 248,538 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [4][5]. - Central government expenditure was 38,232 billion yuan, up 6.2%, while local government expenditure grew by 0.6% to 210,306 billion yuan [4]. - Key areas of expenditure included social security and employment (up 8.1%), education (up 4.4%), and health (up 4.7%) [4]. Fiscal Policy Direction - The fiscal policy is shifting from a production-oriented approach to a more people-centered approach, focusing on investments in human capital and social welfare [5]. - The government plans to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy, marking the 18th consecutive year of expansionary fiscal measures since 2008 [4][5]. Debt Issuance and Fund Budget - In the first eleven months, the issuance of national bonds reached 14.19 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 89.2%, which is 6.4 percentage points lower than the previous year [6]. - Local government special bonds issued totaled 4.46 trillion yuan, exceeding the annual limit by 101.3% [6]. - Government fund budget revenue was 40,274 billion yuan, down 4.9%, while expenditure increased by 13.7% to 92,124 billion yuan [6].

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to November, China's general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 164,814 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, while non-tax revenue was 35,702 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 3.7% [1] - The growth rate of general public budget revenue remained consistent with that of January to October [1] Group 2: Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax and domestic consumption tax grew by 3.9% and 2.5% respectively, indicating stable growth [1] - Corporate income tax increased by 1.7%, while personal income tax saw a significant rise of 11.5%, maintaining the same growth rate as in the previous months [1] - Sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed strong tax performance, with computer and communication equipment manufacturing tax revenue up by 14.1%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing tax revenue up by 7.9% [1] Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure - National general public budget expenditure reached 248,538 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [2] - Key areas of expenditure included social security and employment (up 8.1%), education (up 4.4%), health (up 4.7%), and science and technology (up 7.9%) [2] - Government fund budget revenue was 40.3 billion RMB, down 4.9%, while government fund budget expenditure was 92.1 billion RMB, up 13.7% [2] Group 4: Debt and Funding - The increase in expenditure was attributed to accelerated use of bond funds, with local government special bonds and other financial instruments contributing to a total expenditure of 51.5 billion RMB [2]

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue - From January to November, the national general public budget revenue reached 20.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1][3] - Tax revenue continued to grow, with total tax revenue at 16.48 trillion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to January to October [1][3] - Major tax categories showed stable growth: domestic value-added tax and domestic consumption tax increased by 3.9% and 2.5% respectively; corporate income tax rose by 1.7%; personal income tax grew by 11.5%, consistent with the previous period [1][3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax performance, with tax revenue from computer and communication equipment manufacturing up 14.1%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing up 7.9%, scientific research and technical services up 14.6%, and cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors up 6.3% [1][4] Group 3: Fiscal Expenditure - From January to November, the national general public budget expenditure was 24.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [2][4] - Key areas of expenditure included social security and employment (up 8.1%), education (up 4.4%), health (up 4.7%), science and technology (up 7.9%), energy conservation and environmental protection (up 6.6%), and culture, tourism, sports, and media (up 1.3%) [2][4] Group 4: Government Fund Budget - Government fund budget revenue was 4.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [2][4] - Government fund budget expenditure reached 9.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds, with 5.15 trillion yuan spent from various bond sources [2][4]

Group 1 - The national general public budget revenue for the first 11 months of the year reached 20.05 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.8%, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous 10 months [1] - Tax revenue amounted to 16.48 trillion yuan, growing by 1.8%, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first 10 months [1] - The domestic value-added tax and domestic consumption tax grew by 3.9% and 2.5% respectively, while personal income tax increased by 11.5%, consistent with the growth rate from the first 10 months [1] Group 2 - The performance of personal income tax has been notably strong, likely due to the active capital market and increased wealth effect, with capital market-related tax revenues also seeing significant growth [2] - Corporate income tax revenue reached 402.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7%, indicating a recovery in corporate earnings supported by various factors [2] - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries showed strong tax revenue performance, with the computer and communication equipment manufacturing sector growing by 14.1% and the electrical machinery sector by 7.9% [2] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector continues to play a stabilizing role, with tax revenue from manufacturing maintaining a stable share of around 30% [3] - High-tech industry sales revenue increased by 14.7%, with smart device manufacturing sales growing by 28.2%, reflecting rapid growth in innovation-driven sectors [3] - General public budget expenditure for the first 11 months reached 24.85 trillion yuan, growing by 1.4%, with significant spending in social security and employment, education, and health sectors [3]

主要税收收入项目中，1月份至11月份，国内增值税、国内消费税分别同比增长3.9%、2.5%，继续保持 平稳增长；企业所得税同比增长1.7%；个人所得税同比增长11.5%，增幅与1月份至10月份持平。 全国一般公共预算支出保持增长，重点领域支出得到保障。各级财政部门认真落实更加积极的财政政 策，加大支出强度，优化支出结构，持续加强对重点领域的支出保障。 12月17日，财政部公布了今年1月份至11月份财政收支情况。1月份至11月份，全国一般公共预算收入 20.05万亿元，同比增长0.8%。 1月份至11月份，全国一般公共预算支出24.85万亿元，同比增长1.4%。其中，社会保障和就业支出同比 增长8.1%，教育支出同比增长4.4%，卫生健康支出同比增长4.7%，科学技术支出同比增长7.9%，节能 环保支出同比增长6.6%，文化旅游体育与传媒支出同比增长1.3%。 税收收入继续增长。1月份至11月份，全国税收收入16.48万亿元，同比增长1.8%，增幅比1月份至10月 份提高0.1个百分点。 同时，1月份至11月份，全国政府性基金预算收入4.03万亿元，同比下降4.9%；全国政府性基金预算支 出9.21万亿元，同比 ...

Core Insights - The overall fiscal operation remains stable, with public budget revenue showing low growth trends in the first 11 months of the year [1][2] Group 1: Public Budget Revenue - National general public budget revenue for the first 11 months is approximately 20.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.8%, consistent with the previous 10 months [1] - Tax revenue, considered an economic barometer, accounts for about 16.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [1] - In November, tax revenue reached approximately 1.15 trillion yuan, growing by 2.8% year-on-year [1] - Major tax categories, including domestic VAT, corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, and personal income tax, have shown stable growth rates of 3.9%, 1.7%, 2.5%, and 11.5% respectively [1] - The significant growth in personal income tax is attributed to an active capital market and increased income from dividends [1] Group 2: Non-Tax Revenue - Non-tax revenue for the first 11 months is approximately 3.6 trillion yuan, showing a decline of 3.7% year-on-year [2] - The decline is partly due to previous high growth rates leading to a high base and increased regulatory scrutiny on penalty and confiscation revenues [2] Group 3: Government Fund Revenue - Government fund budget revenue, primarily from land sales, is about 4 trillion yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year, with a more significant decline compared to the previous 10 months [3] - Revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights is approximately 2.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% [3] Group 4: Fiscal Expenditure - General public budget expenditure for the first 11 months is around 24.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [3] - Government fund budget expenditure is approximately 9.2 trillion yuan, increasing by 13.7% year-on-year [3] - Expenditure on social security, health, and education has grown by 8.1%, 4.7%, and 4.4% respectively, all exceeding the average expenditure growth rate [3] Group 5: Fiscal Policy Measures - To maintain fiscal spending intensity and stabilize economic operations, the Ministry of Finance allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits for enhancing local fiscal capacity and effective investment [4] - In the fourth quarter, 500 billion yuan of new policy financial tools have been fully deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [4]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In the first 11 months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget revenue was +0.8%, unchanged from the previous value[1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of general public budget expenditure was +1.4%, down from +2.0%[1] - Government fund budget revenue saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -4.9%, compared to -2.8% previously[1] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by +13.7%, down from +15.4%[1] Tax Revenue Insights - In November, tax revenue showed a year-on-year decline of -0.02%, with a significant drop in central government revenue by -4.23% and an increase in local government revenue by +4.05%[3] - The four major tax categories experienced a decline in growth rates, with individual income tax growth at +11.43%, consumption tax at +3.31%, and domestic VAT at +3.31%[4] - Corporate income tax growth turned negative, dropping by 12.49 percentage points, likely due to a slowdown in the cleanup of irregular tax subsidies[4] Government Fund Performance - Government fund budget revenue in November showed a year-on-year decline of -15.8%, an improvement from -18.4% in the previous month[24] - Government fund budget expenditure recorded a year-on-year growth of +2.8%, a significant recovery from -38.2%[25] - The cumulative progress of government fund budget revenue for the first 11 months was 64.4%, below the five-year average of 71.5%[25] Infrastructure and Debt Management - The issuance of new local special bonds reached 4.46 trillion yuan, with a completion rate of 96.9% against the annual plan[34] - The acceleration of fiscal spending in November was evident, particularly in infrastructure and employment-related expenditures, which improved significantly[15] - The overall fiscal deposit decline in November indicates a faster allocation of fiscal funds to projects, supporting infrastructure investment stability[15]