Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in major economic indicators in China due to external demand slowdown, weakened domestic demand, and high base effects from the previous year, emphasizing the need for stronger macroeconomic policies to stabilize growth [3][4]. Economic Indicators - In October, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 4.9% year-on-year, slowing down by 1.6 percentage points from September [3]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points from September [3]. - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 408,914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [3]. Government Response - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting to discuss the implementation of "two major" constructions aimed at enhancing consumption and investment [3][4]. - The government plans to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods to stimulate consumption and achieve a dynamic balance [3][4]. Investment Trends - Despite a decline in overall investment, emerging industries such as digital manufacturing and smart equipment are showing significant growth, with the digital industry manufacturing value-added increasing by 9.5% year-on-year [7][8]. - The investment in fixed assets has seen a historical decline, particularly in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate sectors [9]. "Two Major" Construction - The "two major" construction initiative is set to allocate 800 billion yuan to support 1,459 projects, focusing on strategic areas such as ecological restoration and major infrastructure [11][12]. - This initiative aims to optimize project reviews and enhance the quality of investments, promoting new productive forces [11][12]. Consumer Trends - Service consumption is becoming a significant growth point, with retail sales in services growing by 5.3% year-on-year [7]. - Digital and green consumption are expanding, with online retail sales increasing by 9.6% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards a more diversified consumption structure [8][14]. Supply and Demand Adaptability - Enhancing supply and demand adaptability is crucial for releasing consumption potential and ensuring economic circulation [13][15]. - The article highlights the need for a balance between supply and demand, with a focus on quality and personalized consumption [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [3]. Core Viewpoints - The steel sector is showing signs of recovery with a slight increase in prices and production, despite facing supply-demand imbalances and overall profit declines. The report suggests that the implementation of "stability growth" policies will support demand in real estate and infrastructure, leading to a potential marginal improvement in steel demand [4][6]. - The report highlights that the steel industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, with a tightening supply due to policy expectations and increasing industry concentration. This is anticipated to create structural investment opportunities, particularly for high-margin special steel companies and leading enterprises with strong cost control [4][6]. Supply Situation - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 88.8%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points week-on-week. Electric furnace utilization stands at 53.2%, up by 2.31 percentage points [26]. - The total production of five major steel products is 7.261 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 229,800 tons, or 3.07% [26]. Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products is 8.606 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 63,300 tons, or 0.73% [34]. - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 100,000 tons, which is an increase of 370 tons, or 3.87% week-on-week [34]. Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products is 10.614 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 136,100 tons, or 1.27%, but an increase of 30.61% year-on-year [42]. - Factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.160 million tons, down by 126,100 tons, or 2.94% week-on-week, and up by 6.35% year-on-year [42]. Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,422.3 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.47 yuan/ton, but a year-on-year decrease of 6.85% [48]. - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -29 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton week-on-week, while the profit for electric arc furnace-produced construction steel is -155 yuan/ton, up by 7 yuan/ton week-on-week [54]. Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 786 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [71]. - The price of primary metallurgical coke is 1,935 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 55 yuan/ton [71]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leading enterprises with advanced equipment and environmental standards, such as Shandong Steel and Hualing Steel, as well as companies with excellent growth potential like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [4].

Economic Overview - In October, some economic indicators showed a downward trend due to last year's high base, deep adjustments in the real estate sector, and weak domestic demand [2][6] - Despite the downturn, there were positive signs such as a rebound in service retail sales driven by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, indicating significant consumption potential [2][6] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for October grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest monthly growth this year [6][12] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning towards high-end production, with equipment manufacturing increasing by 8%, outpacing overall industrial growth [6][10] Investment Trends - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7%, with infrastructure investment down by 0.1% and real estate development investment down by 14.7% [7][14] - High-tech sectors such as aerospace and information services saw significant investment growth, with aerospace manufacturing up by 19.7% and information services up by 32.7% [7][12] Trade Dynamics - In October, the total import and export volume grew by 0.1% year-on-year, with exports declining by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [8][9] - The trade growth slowdown was attributed to last year's high base, with some exports delayed from September due to typhoons [9][10] Policy Measures - The government is implementing policies to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to stimulate consumption and investment [3][13] - Recent policies include the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the acceleration of local government bond usage to support effective investment [13][14] Economic Outlook - Despite the challenges, the overall economic operation remains stable, with a GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual target of around 5% [12][15] - Analysts suggest that additional policy measures may be necessary to counteract weak demand and support economic recovery, particularly in the real estate sector [14][15]

Economic Overview - In October, economic indicators showed a downward trend due to factors such as last year's high base, deep adjustments in the real estate sector, and weak domestic demand [1][4] - Despite the downturn, there were positive signs in the economy, particularly in service retail sales, which rebounded due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, indicating significant consumption potential [1][11] Production and Investment - The industrial added value and service production index both recorded their lowest monthly growth rates of the year in October, with industrial added value growing by 4.9%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [5][11] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with infrastructure investment down by 0.1% and real estate development investment down by 14.7% [6][12] Trade and Exports - In October, the total import and export volume grew by only 0.1%, with exports declining by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4%, reflecting a significant drop in growth compared to previous months [7][11] Policy Measures - The State Council is implementing measures to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, aiming to stimulate consumption and improve project funding arrangements [2][12] - Recent policies include the accelerated deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and the utilization of 500 billion yuan in local government debt limits to boost effective investment [12][14] Economic Challenges and Outlook - The economy faces challenges from weak domestic demand and structural issues, necessitating stronger growth policies to reverse the current downward trend and promote recovery [13][14] - Despite the pressures, achieving the annual growth target of around 5% remains likely, with expectations for further fiscal and monetary policy support in the coming months [13][14]

Economic Performance - In October, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.9% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 2.9%. However, fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% from January to October [1] - The macroeconomic operation in October was influenced by factors such as slowing external demand, weakened domestic consumption and investment growth momentum, and the time lag in the transmission of stable growth policies [1] High-tech Manufacturing Sector - The high-tech manufacturing sector showed strong growth, with the added value increasing by 7.2% year-on-year in October, outpacing the overall industrial growth [2] - From January to October, the investment in information services, aerospace, and computer equipment manufacturing grew by 32.7%, 19.7%, and 4.1% respectively [2] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted retail sales in telecommunications and cultural office supplies, with growth rates of 23.2% and 13.5% respectively in October [2] Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that stable growth policies will be further strengthened to support the macroeconomic operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year [3] - The focus of these policies will be on expanding domestic demand, releasing consumption potential, and increasing effective investment to counteract the impact of slowing external demand [3] - The government aims to stabilize the economy while fostering new productive forces for sustainable economic development [3]

Core Insights - The economic indicators for October showed a downward trend due to factors such as last year's high base, deep adjustments in the real estate sector, and weak domestic demand [1][3][4] - Despite the challenges, there are positive signs in the economy, particularly in service retail sales and the manufacturing of high-tech products [1][4][9] - The need for stronger growth policies is increasing to counteract the current economic pressures and promote recovery [1][12][13] Economic Performance - In October, the industrial added value and service production index both recorded their lowest monthly growth rates of the year, with industrial added value growing by 4.9%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and service production index growing by 4.6%, down 1 percentage point [3][4] - Fixed asset investment from January to October decreased by 1.7%, with infrastructure investment down by 0.1% and real estate development investment down by 14.7% [5][11] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October grew by 2.9%, marking the lowest monthly growth rate of the year [4][5] Sectoral Analysis - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as equipment manufacturing, saw an increase of 8%, indicating a shift towards mid-to-high-end manufacturing [4][7] - Investment in high-tech fields, including new energy and artificial intelligence, is expanding, with aerospace and information services seeing significant growth rates of 19.7% and 32.7%, respectively [5][11] - The disparity between high-tech industries and traditional sectors is widening, with high-tech manufacturing and services showing robust growth while traditional sectors face challenges [7][12] Policy Implications - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and another 500 billion yuan in local debt limits is aimed at stabilizing the economy, although the effects are expected to take time to materialize [11][12] - There is a call for additional fiscal measures to support consumer spending and investment, particularly in the real estate sector, to prevent further declines [12][13] - The overall economic stability is seen as a foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [9][12]

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for October showed a downward trend due to factors such as last year's high base, deep adjustments in the real estate sector, and weak domestic demand, although there were still some positive signs in consumption and industrial production [1][10]. Economic Indicators - The industrial added value for October grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decline of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest monthly growth rate of the year [3]. - The service production index increased by 4.6% year-on-year, down 1 percentage point from the previous month, also reflecting the impact of last year's high base [3]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in October grew by 2.9% year-on-year, the lowest monthly growth rate this year, with certain categories experiencing negative growth due to last year's high base [4][5]. Investment Trends - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7%, with infrastructure investment down by 0.1% and real estate development investment down by 14.7% [5]. - High-tech sector investments showed rapid growth, with aerospace and equipment manufacturing investment increasing by 19.7% and information services investment growing by 32.7% [5]. Trade Performance - The total import and export volume in October grew by 0.1% year-on-year, with exports declining by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4% [6]. - The decline in export growth was attributed to last year's high base, with overall trade stability observed when combining September and October data [6]. Policy Implications - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and 500 billion yuan in local debt limits is expected to support economic recovery, although the effects will take time to materialize [12][13]. - There is a growing necessity for enhanced growth policies to address weak domestic demand and the deep adjustment in the real estate market [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for October show a downward trend influenced by last year's high base, deep adjustments in the real estate sector, and weak domestic demand, although there are still positive signs in certain areas such as service retail growth and advancements in high-tech manufacturing [2][3][4]. Economic Indicators - In October, the industrial added value and service production index both recorded the lowest monthly growth rates of the year, with industrial added value growing by 4.9%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and service production growing by 4.6%, down 1 percentage point [3]. - The social retail sales growth rate for October was 2.9%, the lowest monthly growth rate of the year, with fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) declining by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October [4]. - The total import and export volume in October grew by 0.1%, with exports decreasing by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4%, reflecting a significant drop in growth compared to the previous month [5]. Policy Measures - A new policy package involving 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and 500 billion yuan in local debt limits has been introduced to stimulate investment and support local government finances [2][8]. - The effectiveness of these policies is expected to take time to materialize, with projections indicating significant impacts by the first quarter of 2026 [8][9]. Sectoral Performance - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as equipment manufacturing and information technology services, continue to show robust growth, with equipment manufacturing value increasing by 8% and information technology services growing by 13% [3][4]. - Investment in high-tech sectors like aerospace and information services has seen substantial growth, with aerospace manufacturing investment increasing by 19.7% and information services by 32.7% from January to October [4]. Economic Outlook - Despite the downward pressure on economic indicators, achieving the annual growth target of around 5% remains likely, although there is a growing necessity for enhanced growth stabilization policies to address weak demand and the real estate market's challenges [9][10]. - Recommendations for policy adjustments include increasing fiscal spending, optimizing expenditure structures, and implementing further monetary easing to support economic recovery [10].

Economic Growth - China's economic growth momentum has slowed down in October, with both supply and demand sides experiencing a decline in growth rates [1][4] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized the need to "resolutely achieve the annual economic and social development goals," focusing on stabilizing macroeconomic operations for the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year [1][13] Supply Side - Industrial production has significantly declined, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises growing by 4.9% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from September [3][4] - The decline in industrial added value is attributed to the impact of holidays and the tapering effects of "export rush" and "two new" policies (large-scale equipment updates and consumption upgrades) [4] - Notably, the added value of equipment manufacturing grew by 8.0% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing increased by 7.2%, indicating strong support from large-scale equipment updates and domestic manufacturing transformation [4] Service Sector - The service production index grew by 4.6% year-on-year in October, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month [6] - Specific sectors such as information transmission, software, and IT services saw growth rates of 13.0% and 8.2%, respectively, while the financial sector's growth rate fell from 8.7% to 5.6% [6] Demand Side - Social retail sales increased by 2.9% year-on-year in October, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [6][8] - Exports in dollar terms decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, contrasting with an 8.3% increase in the previous month [6][8] - Consumer behavior remains cautious, with a significant reduction in household loans, indicating weak willingness to leverage [8] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7% from January to October, with the drop widening by 1.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months [9][11] - Manufacturing investment grew by 2.7%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, while real estate investment fell by 14.7%, with the decline accelerating [11][12] - The decline in manufacturing investment is influenced by external environment fluctuations and high base effects from last year's equipment updates [12] Policy Response - Analysts suggest that the current uncertainties in exports and consumption necessitate increased macro policy support for investment [13] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the full deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 500 billion yuan from local debt limits to support infrastructure [13][14] - Expectations are set for further fiscal policies to boost consumption and potential new rounds of interest rate cuts, given the low government debt ratio and current low domestic prices [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic growth momentum weakened marginally in October 2025, but it is likely to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%. New round of pro - growth policies are expected to be introduced in the coming year, and gold's long - term bullish trend is well - founded [4]. - The end of the US federal government shutdown had short - term and long - term impacts on the US economy. In the short term, it may push up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, while in the long run, the US economic growth momentum is likely to rebound in late 2025 and 2026, which is negative for precious metals [16][17]. - It is recommended to take a long - position approach in precious metal trading, as the medium - term bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over, and attention should be paid to the opportunities to go long again [30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Environment Review 3.1.1 Economic Situation in China - China's economic growth momentum weakened marginally in October due to reduced stimulus from pro - growth measures, international trade tensions, and the decline of export - rush demand. New pro - growth policies are expected to be introduced in the future [4]. - From January to October, China's cumulative year - on - year fixed - asset investment shrank by 1.7%, with manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure investment all showing different degrees of slowdown [5]. - In October, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to October was 4.3% [8]. - In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, with a slowdown in growth. The domestic supply - demand imbalance worsened [9]. - In October, China's real estate market continued to be weak, with the national real estate climate index falling, sales, completion, and new construction areas all shrinking, and high inventory levels [11][12]. - In October, new and second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in China declined, and the positive feedback cycle of falling prices and weak sales resumed [14]. 3.1.2 Impact of the End of the US Federal Government Shutdown - The 43 - day US federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025, caused a short - term shock to the US economy, with an estimated loss of about $645 billion and a predicted 1.5 - percentage - point reduction in Q4 2025 GDP growth [15][16]. - After the shutdown ended, the release of previously suspended economic data may push up the Fed's December rate - cut expectation, leading to a rise in US stocks and precious metal prices. In the long term, the US economic growth momentum is likely to rebound, which may lead the Fed to pause rate cuts in the first half of 2026, negative for precious metals [16][17]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and Dollar Exchange Rates - The US dollar index is expected to oscillate at a low level in the second half of 2025, with a core fluctuation range of 95 - 102. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to be slightly stronger but face upward pressure [19][20]. - The 10 - year US Treasury yield is expected to have a core fluctuation range of 3.8% - 4.5% in the second half of 2025 [22]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of November 13, 2025, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were 22.4% and 13.8% higher than their May 2024 lows respectively [23]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system support the long - term bull market of gold. In the medium - term, economic recession risks and liquidity premium expectations make gold prices stronger. In the short - term, gold prices rose due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation but then corrected and rebounded [26][27]. - It is recommended to take a long - position approach in precious metal trading, with London gold expected to reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce in the next six months and one year respectively, and London silver expected to reach $58 and $63 per ounce [30]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - to - silver ratio in London and Shanghai showed different trends from June 2024 to October 2025. The correlation between gold and other assets also changed, with the negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index turning positive, and the negative correlation between gold and US Treasury real yields weakening [31].