4月26日，光大证券首席经济学家高瑞东发布4月25日政治局会议精神学习体会。高瑞东认为，短期政策 强调底线思维，目标是实现"四稳"——也即会议提出的"着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"。会议 具体围绕着力保民生、大力发展服务消费、加快财政资金落地和用好货币政策，部署了四条政策主线。 高瑞东强调，稳就业放在"四稳"之首，指向就业受到当前决策层的高度重视。后续来看，预计稳就业政 策将持续落地。一方面，通过提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例等，降低企业裁员压力。另一方面，预计 重大项目也将加速落地，以工代赈吸纳沿海就业人群。长期政策则要用深化改革开放的办法解决发展中 的问题，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，持续用力推进关键核心技术攻关，方能在国际经贸斗争中立于 有利地位。"长远看还是东风浩荡"，只要我们保持战略定力，集中精力办好自己的事，时与势终将站到 中国一方。(人民财讯) ...

中国经济，正频频让人感到"超预期"。 一季度经济同比增速5.4%，超出了很多国内外机构的预测，而过去往往在四月底召开的中央政治局会议，来得也比往年更早一 些。 时间本身也是信号。 当前，经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固，外部冲击影响加大，在这样的国内外情况下，及时召开会议并向社会传递应对 当前形势的决策判断与工作部署，可以帮助各界更好认识当前经济形势，统一思想认识，也可以更好凝聚共识。 细看中央政治局会议新闻通稿，多处表述之前都很少见。比如这句， "统筹国内经济发展和国际经贸斗争" 。和2018年的"经贸摩 擦"相比，"经贸斗争"反映出中央对当前国际形势的严峻性、长期性和艰巨性的最新判断，也正基于这样的判断，会议提出要"强化 底线思维，充分备足预案，扎实做好经济工作。" 以变应变。 会议提出， "要着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期" ，也蕴含不少新意。 "稳就业"排在首位，"对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例"，表明在外部冲击加大的情况下，对就业这个民 生之首的高度重视。 稳企业、稳市场，"多措并举帮扶困难企业"，透露出宏观决策对微观经济运行主体的关切度在进一步提升。在去年9月以来一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to adopt a more proactive and expansive policy stance, focusing on stabilizing expectations, growth, foreign trade, employment, stock market, and real estate, while also introducing new incremental policies [1][5][9]. Economic Outlook - The economic situation is anticipated to be acknowledged as stable with a good start in Q1, but challenges will be highlighted, particularly the complex external environment and insufficient domestic demand growth [3][5]. - The GDP growth rate for Q1 is reported at 5.4%, but indicators like CPI and PPI suggest weak demand characteristics remain unchanged, necessitating policy adjustments [5][9]. Policy Direction - The policy tone is expected to be more aggressive and expansive, with a focus on "real money" measures to stabilize various economic sectors [5][9]. - There is an emphasis on implementing existing policies while also introducing new measures to address external uncertainties [5][9]. Key Focus Areas - Specific areas of focus include central leverage, stabilizing foreign trade and employment, expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, stabilizing the stock market and real estate, and enhancing industrial reform [9][10]. - Potential measures may include interest rate cuts, increased fiscal stimulus, and adjustments to the use of funds for existing policies [9][12]. Trade and Employment - The government is expected to emphasize support for foreign trade enterprises and employment, with significant backing for transitioning exports to domestic sales [11][15]. - The stock market may see increased support, with actions from central financial institutions to stabilize market confidence [11][15]. Infrastructure and Reform - More infrastructure projects are likely to be launched, focusing on urban renewal and water conservancy [12]. - Long-term reform efforts will continue, with attention to national market unification and state-owned enterprise reforms [12][13]. Recent Developments - Recent government actions include high-level visits to Southeast Asian countries to strengthen cooperation, and responses to increased tariffs from the U.S. [13][14]. - The government is actively supporting the transition of foreign trade enterprises to domestic markets through various platforms and initiatives [15][16].

Overview - The real estate sector plays a crucial role in human economic and social development, providing essential spaces for various activities and representing a significant asset for individuals and families. Since the reform and opening up, the Qingdao real estate market has developed rapidly, but it has entered a rational development phase under the "housing is for living, not for speculation" policy. In 2024, the total investment in real estate development in Qingdao is projected to be 151.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.57%, with residential properties accounting for 80.7% of the investment, office buildings 4.4%, and commercial properties 3.2% [1][7]. Policy Environment - The Qingdao municipal government has prioritized the development of the real estate industry, issuing several policies aimed at stabilizing the market and reducing housing costs. Key measures include optimizing housing provident fund withdrawals for down payments, training for real estate agents, and implementing a commitment system for existing home transactions [3][4]. Industry Chain - The Qingdao real estate industry consists of an upstream sector that includes land supply, architectural design, construction materials, construction machinery, and financial services. The midstream involves real estate development, construction, and sales, while the downstream includes decoration, property management, and real estate brokerage services. Property management is a significant market segment, providing essential services such as security, cleaning, and maintenance [5]. Current Development - The real estate market in Qingdao has seen a decline in both construction and sales areas. In 2023, the construction area fell to 10.433 million square meters, and the sales area dropped to 1.455 million square meters. In 2024, the sales area is expected to further decrease to 1.1939 million square meters, with residential properties making up 77.49% of the sales [9]. Competitive Landscape - The Qingdao real estate market is characterized by intense competition with numerous participants. Major companies include Junyi Holdings, Hisense Real Estate, China Jinmao, and others. In the first quarter of 2025, Junyi Holdings led in sales with 1.560 billion yuan, followed by Hisense Real Estate and China Jinmao with 1.269 billion yuan and 0.796 billion yuan, respectively [11][13]. Company Analysis - **Junyi Holdings**: Founded in 2002, it is a leading real estate company in Shandong, focusing on high-quality residential and commercial projects. The company emphasizes product quality and customer satisfaction over scale [15]. - **Hisense Real Estate**: Established in 1995, it holds top-level qualifications in real estate development and property services. The company has received numerous awards for its projects, highlighting its strong market position [17]. Future Trends - The future of Qingdao's real estate policies will focus on stabilizing expectations through measures such as optimizing purchase restrictions and promoting urban village renovations. There may be further relaxation of household registration restrictions and enhancements to the housing provident fund policies to stimulate demand. Price trends are expected to vary across different districts, with core areas maintaining stable prices while peripheral areas may experience slight adjustments [19].

大家周日晚上好，周末加更一篇，主要是有三个新闻，想和大家分享一下自己的看法。 第一件事，是周五 中航信托 被托管的事情； 第二件事，是本周国务院 "加强预期管理"专题学习会 释放的一些政策信号； 第三件事，是周末的 机器人马拉松 ，表面看起来虽然摔得有点荒唐，但讲讲这次马拉松背后，一些底层的逻辑。 直接步入正题。 ...... 第一件事， 中航信托被托管的一些启发。 本周五，中航信托在官网进行了公告，其后续由建信信托、国投泰康信托进行托管，名义上是"市场化托管"，但实际上， 体现的是监管意 志 ——只有问题已经较大，积重难返的机构，才会采取类似这样的托管机制，其目的，是让熟悉行业的同业来把脉，以便尽快梳理清楚内 部的问题，在保险、信托行业，这套机制已经实施了好几次了。 其实，在去年底的《 2025金融行业的十大猜想 》中，我们就提到，对于金 融机构来说，2025年的关键 词，就是" 金融机构合并出清 潮，加速，加速，加速 "。 对于中航信托的问题，在4月初《 有机构扯到蛋了 》里， 聊中航信托的母公司——中航产融停牌退市的时候 ，其实也聊到了，下图，算 是说的比较隐晦了。后续，中航信托大概率是从母公司中航产融 ...