Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pig price will fluctuate and adjust with a risk of decline; in the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large and the forward price rebound is under pressure. Egg prices are under pressure in the third quarter and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. Palm oil shows short - term rebound but has limited long - term upside. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil also have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and trend moderately stronger in the long - term. Corn prices are expected to be moderately stronger, with short - term support and long - term upward drive but limited upside due to substitutes [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig - **Spot price**: On June 4, the spot price in Liaoning was 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.1 - 14.5 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.1 - 14.3 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 15.2 - 15.8 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Market situation**: In June, the pig supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the overall consumption is weak. However, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening and frozen product inventory entry still exists, limiting the decline of pig prices. In the long - term, the supply from June to September 2024 will increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is at a low level and fluctuates in the short - term. Wait to short at the resistance level after the rebound. The resistance and support levels for different contracts are given [1]. 2. Egg - **Spot price**: On June 4, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.7 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.02 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Market situation**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand weakens, and the egg price support is limited. In the medium - term, the supply in the future may increase due to high replenishment in March - April 2025. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, be bearish in general; for the 10 contract, look for long opportunities at low prices [2]. 3. Oil Palm oil - **Futures price**: On June 3, the Malaysian palm oil main 8 - month contract rose 1.44% to 3934 ringgit/ton [2]. - **Market situation**: In May, the export of Malaysian palm oil improved, the production increase slowed down, and the inventory accumulation was expected to slow down. The inventory in Indonesia decreased, and India has the demand to replenish inventory. In the long - term, the production will increase seasonally until October. In China, the palm oil inventory has recovered and will continue to rise [3][4]. - **Strategy**: The 08 contract may rebound in the short - term, pay attention to the performance at the 8000 resistance level. The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8300 [4][7]. Soybean oil - **Futures price**: On June 3, the US soybean oil main 7 - month contract rose 1.25% to 46.81 cents/pound [2]. - **Market situation**: The US biofuel blending plan is about to be announced. The US soybean fundamentals are mixed. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is large, and the soybean oil inventory has increased, with a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [5]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 7500 - 8000 [7]. Rapeseed oil - **Market situation**: The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing and export is strong, and the old - crop inventory is declining. The new - crop sowing is normal. In China, the inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure is large. Pay attention to the changes in China - Canada relations [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9500 [7]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures price**: On June 3, the US soybean 07 contract rose 7.25 cents to 1040.75 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal M2509 contract closed at 2935 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market situation**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to fluctuate. In China, the soybean arrival increases, and the spot price is expected to be weak. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price will trend moderately stronger [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will be range - bound in the short - term, and go long on dips after mid - June [8]. 5. Corn - **Spot price**: On June 3, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2320 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2460 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market situation**: In the short - term, the supply increases, but the price has support. In the long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside is limited due to substitutes [8]. - **Strategy**: Be moderately bullish. The 07 contract will fluctuate at a high level, and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [8]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are materializing, inventory accumulation has begun, and the market is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [3]. - For polyethylene, overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and LD is weakening. In 2025, new devices pose significant pressure, and attention should be paid to their commissioning [8]. - For polypropylene, upstream and mid - stream inventories are accumulating. The basis is +10, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profit is around -500. With few known future maintenance plans, supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 05 contract faces pressure, which can be relieved by export growth or monthly maintenance of 2 million - ton PDH devices [8]. - For PVC, the basis is strengthening. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in June. The current static inventory is decreasing from a high level, and factors like exports, coal prices, and terminal orders should be monitored [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,动力煤期货 remained at 801. The daily changes in江苏现货,华南现货,鲁南折盘面,西南折盘面,河北折盘面,西北折盘面, CFR中国, CFR东南亚,进口利润,主力基差, and盘面MTO利润 were 0, 20, 5, - 3, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9, 20, - 13 respectively [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,东北亚乙烯 remained at 780. The daily changes in华北LL,华东LL,华东LD,华东HD, LL美金, LL美湾,进口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 65, 30, - 2, 0 respectively [8]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,山东丙烯 and东北亚丙烯 remained stable in some cases. The daily changes in华东PP,华北PP,山东粉料,华东共聚, PP美金, PP美湾,出口利润,主力期货,基差,两油库存, and仓单 were - 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, - 43, 20, - 2, - 133 respectively [8]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 26 - 30, 2025,西北电石 decreased from 2450 to 2350,山东烧碱 increased from 867 to 885. The daily change in基差(高端交割品) was 10 [11][12].

甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/05/2 3 801 2302 2303 2460 2600 2460 2630 256 327 70 50 -818 2025/05/2 6 801 2285 2300 2410 2565 2460 2525 256 327 58 40 -843 2025/05/2 7 801 2250 2275 2390 2520 2325 2505 254 327 39 40 -828 2025/05/2 8 801 2255 2275 2355 2520 2300 2500 255 327 29 25 -825 2025/05/2 9 801 2245 2278 2353 2510 2300 2495 255 327 32 15 -836 日度变化 0 -10 3 -2 -10 0 -5 0 0 3 -10 -11 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘面低估值，等待淡季预期交易到位；伊朗降开工，非伊增量，国内供应增 加，总体来说处于利 空兑 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is starting, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. - For plastics, the overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral, with upstream inventory accumulation during holidays. The import profit is around - 400, and there's no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [7]. - For polypropylene, the upstream and mid - stream inventory has increased. The basis is + 10, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. The import profit is around - 500, and there's no large - scale export transaction. With less planned maintenance, supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure, and pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly PDH device maintenance of 2 million tons [7]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened. The mid - and upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices is ongoing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors in June [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 21 to May 27, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, while the Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2330 to 2250, a decrease of 35. The daily change on May 27 showed a 0 change in power coal futures, - 35 in Jiangsu spot price, etc [2]. - **Market Situation**: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has started. Iran has reduced its production, but there are non - Iranian increments and increased domestic supply. It's in a bearish realization period [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 21 to May 27, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780, and the North China LL price dropped from 7260 to 7025, a decrease of 235. The daily change on May 27 showed a 0 change in Northeast Asia ethylene, - 75 in North China LL price, etc [7]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, with upstream inventory accumulation during holidays. The import profit is around - 400, and there's no further increase. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From May 21 to May 27, 2025, the Shandong propylene price dropped from 6520 to 6440, a decrease of 80. The daily change on May 27 showed a - 10 change in Shandong propylene price, etc [7]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream and mid - stream inventory has increased. The basis is + 10, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. The import profit is around - 500, and there's no large - scale export transaction. With less planned maintenance, supply is expected to increase slightly [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 21 to May 27, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price dropped from 2500 to 2400, a decrease of 100. The daily change on May 27 showed a - 50 change in Northwest calcium carbide price, etc [11][12]. - **Market Situation**: The basis has strengthened. The mid - and upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices is ongoing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, pig prices are oscillating strongly. From May 5 - 11, the price of 20KG piglets in Henan remained at 45 yuan/kg, the pig price in Henan rose from 14.85 yuan/kg last week to 15 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide dropped from 1635 yuan/head last week to 1631 yuan/head. The average national slaughter weight increased by 0.18% week - on - week to 126.51KG. In the futures market, the pig futures price is oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract closed at 13925 yuan/ton on May 9, and its basis widened from 940 yuan/ton last week to 1075 yuan/ton [2]. - Looking ahead to May 12 - 18, the spot price of pigs will oscillate and adjust. In the off - season, the group's adjustment of slaughter volume has a significant impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing, and the actual pressure can only be judged after the selling pressure test. For the futures market, the short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity, with stop - profit and stop - loss in mind. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15000 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review (May 5 - 11) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices are oscillating strongly. The supply side shows that large - scale farms have no intention to actively sell and reduce weight in May, and small farmers are reluctant to sell. The demand side has the frozen - fresh price difference supporting regular demand, and the secondary fattening procurement demand has weakened compared to before the festival. The average national slaughter weight increased slightly [2]. - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices are oscillating and adjusting. The LH2509 contract has a certain price range, and the basis has widened [2] 3.2 Market Outlook (May 12 - 18) - **Spot Market**: The price will oscillate and adjust. The group's adjustment of slaughter volume in the off - season has a large impact on prices. There is still speculative demand support in May, but the spot pressure is gradually increasing [3]. - **Futures Market**: The short - term contradiction of the near - term contract is still accumulating, waiting for spot verification. The January contract has long - allocation value, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity. The short - term support and pressure levels of the LH2509 contract are 13000 yuan/ton and 15000 yuan/ton respectively [4] 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: This week, the basis is 1075 yuan/ton, and the LH2507 - LH2509 monthly spread is - 430 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week is 126.51KG. In March, the pork output was 508 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39%, and the pork import was 9.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market logic is gradually returning to the industrial logic. The sentiment of secondary fattening has been positive since April, with the spot price mainly showing a strong upward trend. The May contract is narrowing the basis spread upwards, while the far - month contracts are suppressed by the selling expectation. The industry's continuous profitability time has exceeded expectations, and the near - term inventory accumulation pattern remains unchanged. The far - month contracts offer relatively high hedging profits, so attention should be paid to hedging opportunities while being cautious about setting stop - loss and take - profit levels [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Market Review (4.14 - 4.20) - **Spot Market**: The live pig price showed a strong and volatile trend. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 45.2 yuan/kg (the same as last week), the live pig price in Henan was 15.07 yuan/kg (up from 14.82 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1635 yuan/head (the same as last week). On the supply side, the group's slaughter progress was basically in line with expectations, and the slaughter of individual farmers decreased. On the demand side, the difference between frozen and fresh meat prices continuously supported demand, and the procurement demand for secondary fattening increased. The average slaughter weight nationwide this week was 126KG (up from 125.64KG last week), with a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [1]. - **Futures Market**: The live pig futures price showed a strong upward trend. The highest price of the LH2505 contract this week was 13890 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13470 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13875 yuan/ton (compared to 13380 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2505 contract was 1195 yuan/ton (down from 1440 yuan/ton last week) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (4.21 - 4.27) - **Spot Market**: The live pig spot price will fluctuate and adjust. Since March, the group's adjustment of slaughter volume has had a significant impact on prices. Secondary fattening has continuously purchased and held pigs, and the pig weight has continued to increase. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the market expectation is weak, which stimulates secondary fatteners to sell before the festival. There may be a wave of selling, which will further narrow the price difference between fat and lean pigs, and the spot performance will continue to exceed expectations. In terms of supply, the vacancy rates of individual farmers and secondary fattening pens are relatively high. High - weight pigs will be sold according to the market, while small - weight pigs will continue to be held. The group's slaughter progress is in line with the plan. According to the sow plan, the increase in slaughter volume in the second quarter is limited, and the increase in the third quarter will be more obvious. In terms of demand, it is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand will drop significantly compared to the peak before the Spring Festival. However, the demand for converting frozen meat to fresh meat has increased, and the total slaughter volume has increased year - on - year. It is expected that there will also be a small seasonal increase in April. In terms of driving factors, the frozen product sector is limited by the expected price peak and capital pressure, and hopes to start warehousing at a price of 13.5 yuan/kg or lower. Import tariffs have limited impact on the total volume, and the cost transmission range is also limited. Pigs weighing around 300 catties have seen an increased volume of selling before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and there is still a willingness to enter the market after the festival. In general, there is still speculative demand support in mid - to - late April, and the inventory accumulation situation has not reached the critical point [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2505 contract closed at 13875 yuan/ton on April 18th. As tariff and macro - sentiment cool down, the trading logic is gradually returning to the industrial logic. Since April, the sentiment of secondary fattening has been positive, and the spot price has mainly shown a strong upward trend. The May contract is narrowing the basis spread upwards, while the far - month contracts are suppressed by the selling expectation. Many groups have announced a significant decrease in the breeding cost in March, mainly due to cost reduction driven by management and efficiency improvement. The industry's continuous profitability time has exceeded expectations, and the near - term inventory accumulation pattern remains unchanged. The far - month contracts offer relatively high hedging profits. The short - term support level of the LH2505 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: This week, the basis was 1195 yuan/ton, and the calendar spread between LH2505 and LH2507 was 215 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week was 126KG (compared to 124.64KG last week). In February, the pork production was 3.655 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.5%, and the pork import volume was 83,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% [12].