Group 1 - Gold prices surged on October 13, with spot gold reaching a high of $4060 per ounce and COMEX gold exceeding $4070 per ounce [1] - As of the report, spot gold was priced at $4046.06 per ounce, while COMEX gold was at $4066.1 per ounce [1] - The London gold price on October 10 was reported at $4017.845 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 53.11% [5] Group 2 - The recent volatility in precious metals markets has seen both gold and silver prices hitting record highs, with silver prices increasing by 73.53% year-to-date [5][6] - Analysts from CITIC Futures indicated that the upward trend in precious metals is supported by the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and liquidity easing [6] - Key factors to monitor include the U.S. government's "shutdown" developments and the release of non-farm payroll and inflation data [6] Group 3 - Major banks, including China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued risk warnings regarding the increased volatility in precious metals prices [8][10] - These banks recommend that clients manage their positions carefully and stay informed about market changes to mitigate risks [8][10] - The adjustments in risk ratings for various asset management products by banks reflect the overall market volatility and aim to guide investors in making informed decisions [11][12]

Group 1 - The international spot gold price has surpassed $4000 per ounce, reaching a historical high with an annual increase of over 53% [1] - Several banks, including China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued risk warnings regarding precious metals business, advising clients to manage their positions and invest rationally [1][2] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has raised the minimum investment threshold for its gold accumulation business from 850 yuan to 1000 yuan, while maintaining the minimum accumulation starting point at 1 gram for other methods [1] Group 2 - Multiple banks, including Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, have adjusted their precious metals-related services, including increasing investment thresholds and adjusting margin levels [2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties such as the U.S. government shutdown and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - UBS Wealth Management indicates that the demand for defensive assets has significantly increased amid economic uncertainty and geopolitical changes, with a smooth upward logic for precious metals in the fourth quarter [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - International spot gold prices have surpassed $4000 per ounce, marking a historical high with an annual increase of over 53% [1][3] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to investor confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties such as the U.S. government shutdown and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3][4] - As of October 10, 2023, the London gold price was reported at $4017.845 per ounce, while silver reached $50.126 per ounce, reflecting annual increases of 53.11% and 73.53% respectively [3] Group 2: Bank Responses to Gold Price Volatility - Major banks, including China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have issued risk warnings regarding gold trading, advising clients to manage their positions carefully due to increased market volatility [2][3] - ICBC has raised the minimum investment threshold for its gold accumulation business from 850 yuan to 1000 yuan, while maintaining the minimum for gram-based accumulation at 1 gram [2] - Banks are dynamically adjusting their gold-related services, including increasing investment thresholds and modifying margin levels in response to market fluctuations [3] Group 3: Fund Risk Rating Adjustments - Several banks have also adjusted the risk ratings of public fund products due to recent stock market volatility, with China CITIC Bank announcing changes effective October 15 [5][6] - The adjustments include raising the risk ratings of 15 products and lowering the ratings of 2 products, reflecting a proactive approach to investor protection and compliance with regulatory requirements [6][7] - The adjustments aim to ensure that the risk ratings align with the current market conditions and provide accurate information to investors, thereby reducing blind investment behaviors [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, the precious metals market saw partial profit - taking, with prices slightly declining, and silver officially breaking through its historical high. The U.S. government remains in a shutdown, and the two - party stalemate continues. The situation of "no news is good news" persists during the data vacuum period. The election of Takako Koshikawa as the LDP president may increase geopolitical risks in the Asia - Pacific region and boost the willingness to allocate gold [1][3]. - In the fourth quarter, the upward logic of precious metals is generally smooth. The beginning of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and liquidity easing are short - term drivers, while debt over - issuance and de - globalization leading to the contraction of the U.S. dollar's credit are the long - term bullish foundation for gold, and silver benefits synchronously [3]. - Currently, the price volatility of gold and silver has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level, and the prices are not as extremely crowded as in April. Attention should be paid to the progress of the U.S. government shutdown and the release of non - farm and inflation data after the shutdown ends, as well as price volatility changes [1][3]. - The weekly outlook for spot London gold is in the range of [4000, 4200] dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver, it is in the range of [48, 55] dollars per ounce [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - New York Fed President John Williams supports further interest - rate cuts this year to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market. He believes the U.S. economy is not on the verge of recession, and inflation prospects are less dire than earlier this year. Labor market weakness will help curb inflation [2]. - The U.S. National Tax Service will furlough over 34,000 employees due to the government shutdown, accounting for about 46% of the department's total staff. U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson is discussing reforms to the Affordable Care Act subsidies [2]. - Trump said he is conducting transactions with Japan and South Korea. The Vietnamese government said its negotiation representatives will go to the U.S. in October and November to continue trade negotiations [2]. Price Logic - After the holiday, partial profit - taking in the precious metals market led to a slight price decline, and silver broke through its historical high. The U.S. government shutdown continues, and the two - party stalemate persists. The situation of "no news is good news" continues during the data vacuum period. The election of Takako Koshikawa as the LDP president may increase geopolitical risks in the Asia - Pacific region and boost the willingness to allocate gold [1][3]. - In the fourth quarter, the upward logic of precious metals is smooth. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and liquidity easing are short - term drivers, while debt over - issuance and de - globalization leading to the contraction of the U.S. dollar's credit are the long - term bullish foundation for gold, and silver benefits synchronously [3]. - Currently, the price volatility of gold and silver has slightly increased but remains relatively low, and the prices are not as extremely crowded as in April. Attention should be paid to the progress of the U.S. government shutdown and the release of non - farm and inflation data after the shutdown ends, which may cause disturbances in interest - rate cut expectations. Also, changes in price volatility may increase the risk of price adjustments [1][3]. - The weekly outlook for spot London gold is in the range of [4000, 4200] dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver, it is in the range of [48, 55] dollars per ounce [3]. Market Index - As of October 9, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodity index has related data. The commodity index is 2249.67, up 1.12%; the commodity 20 index is 2541.25, up 1.66%; the industrial products index is 2238.71, up 0.87%; the PPI commodity index is 1342.89, up 2.05% [43]. - The precious metals index on October 9, 2025, has a daily increase of 3.88%, a 5 - day increase of 7.08%, a 1 - month increase of 12.26%, and a year - to - date increase of 44.98% [44].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/10/10 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: MOFCOM decided to control export of rare earth-related technologies. Futur ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged significantly since late August, reaching a historic high of $4,059.31 per ounce on October 9, 2023, marking an increase of nearly 55% since the beginning of 2025 [1][2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including U.S. government shutdown fears, ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical tensions [2][5] - The performance of gold-related stocks has been robust, with several companies in the sector experiencing significant stock price increases, driven by rising gold prices and improved earnings [3][4] Gold Price Surge - Analysts categorize the gold price increase into two phases: the first from mid-January to mid-April due to rising safe-haven demand, and the second starting in late August following the Jackson Hole meeting, driven by rate cut expectations and European debt crisis concerns [1][2] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a peak price of 918.8 yuan per gram on October 9, 2023, reflecting the domestic market's response to international trends [1] Market Dynamics - Central banks globally have continued to purchase gold, with a net addition of 166 tons in Q2 2023, led by Poland's 29-ton increase [4] - The domestic gold ETF market has expanded significantly, with a total scale of 169.485 billion yuan by the end of September, showing a growth of over 140% since the beginning of the year [4] Investment Trends - The demand for gold is shifting from central banks to private investors, driven by lower opportunity costs due to expected rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks [5][6] - The current allocation of gold in global financial markets remains low compared to equities and bonds, indicating potential for increased investment in gold [5] Long-term Outlook - Analysts maintain a positive long-term outlook for gold prices, supported by macroeconomic factors such as liquidity expansion from rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks [6][7] - The focus for future price movements will be on U.S. government actions and economic data releases, which could influence market expectations [6][7]

中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-10-9 ⻩⾦突破4000美元关⼝，关注波动率和 美国政府停摆进展 ⾦银的价格波动率⼩幅抬升，但绝对位置仍处于偏低⽔准，价格尚未出现 4⽉的极端拥挤，短期上涨⾏情有望延续，我们分别上调⻩⾦和⽩银的⽬ 标位。后续重点关注两个⽅⾯，⼀是美国政府的停摆进展，以及停摆结束 后⾮农和通胀数据的披露，这可能形成短期降息预期层⾯的扰动。⼆是价 格波动率变化，若后续价格波动出现显著放⼤，会相应带来价格调整⻛险 的放⼤。 重点资讯： 1）美国9月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，预期增加5.1万人，前值增加 5.4万人。 2）美国9月ISM制造业PMI指数为49.1，预期为49，8月前值为48.7。 新订单指数48.9，预期50，前值51.4。在8月短暂扩张后，新订单指 数再次陷入收缩。就业指数45.3，预期44.3，前值43.8。物价支付指 数61.9，预期62.7，8月前值63.7，支付价格指数已连续三个月下 降。 3） 美国9月ISM非制造业PMI为50，预期51.7，前值52。新订单指数 降至50.4，几乎抹去前月的全部涨幅。就业指数连续第四个月萎缩， 萎缩速度有所放缓。支付价格指数 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price volatility of gold and silver has slightly increased, but the absolute level remains low, and the price has not reached the extreme congestion in April. The short - term upward trend is expected to continue, and the target prices of gold and silver are raised respectively [1][3] - The follow - up focuses on two aspects: the progress of the US government shutdown and the release of non - farm and inflation data after the shutdown ends, which may cause short - term disturbances to the interest rate cut expectations; and the change in price volatility. If the price volatility significantly increases, the risk of price adjustment will also increase [1][3][4] - The upward logic of precious metals in the fourth quarter is smooth. At the beginning of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, liquidity easing is the short - term driver, while debt over - issuance and the contraction of the US dollar credit caused by anti - globalization are the long - term bullish cornerstones of gold, and silver also benefits synchronously [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In September, the US ADP employment decreased by 32,000, compared with an expected increase of 51,000 and a previous increase of 54,000 [2] - The US September ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, with an expected 49 and a previous 48.7. The new orders index was 48.9, expected 50 and previous 51.4, falling into contraction again after a brief expansion in August. The employment index was 45.3, expected 44.3 and previous 43.8. The price - paid index was 61.9, expected 62.7 and previous 63.7, and has declined for three consecutive months [2] - The US September ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50, expected 51.7 and previous 52. The new orders index dropped to 50.4, almost erasing the previous month's gains. The employment index contracted for the fourth consecutive month, with the contraction rate slowing down. The price - paid index slightly rose to 69.4, one of the highest levels in three years [2] - Takamichi Sanae won the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election on the 4th, becoming the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party and is expected to be Japan's first female prime minister [2] Price Logic - During the National Day holiday, precious metal prices continued to rise. The US dollar gold officially broke through the 4000 - dollar mark, and the silver price approached 50 dollars. The precious metal sector was the most eye - catching in the market [3] - During the holiday, the US government shut down, and the non - farm data was suspended. The market traded on the idea that "no news is good news", combined with the weak ADP employment and PMI data, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations slightly increased again [3] - Takamichi Sanae's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and her right - wing stance increased the risk of geopolitical conflicts in the Asia - Pacific region, further boosting the willingness to allocate gold [3] Outlook - The London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [4000, 4200] dollars per ounce, and the London silver spot is expected to be in the range of [48, 55] dollars per ounce [4] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index was 2224.82, down 0.46%; the commodity 20 index was 2499.78, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2219.36, down 0.85% [42] Precious Metal Index - On September 30, 2025, the precious metal index was 3087.93, with a daily increase of 0.57%, a 5 - day increase of 2.70%, a 1 - month increase of 9.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 39.57% [44]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is hovering near the historical high of $3,700 per ounce due to the expectation of the Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut and the decline of US Treasury yields [1][3] - The first interest - rate cut is about to happen, and attention should be paid to the guidance on the subsequent path from the quarterly end interest - rate meeting. There can be a moderate optimism about the subsequent interest - rate cut space at the beginning of the interest - rate cut cycle [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Key Information - The US and China have reached a framework agreement on TikTok's ownership transfer to US control, to be confirmed in a call between US President Trump and Chinese leaders on Friday [2] - The Trump administration is taking actions to weaken China's global port network and place more strategic docks under Western control [2] - The central bank and the General Administration of Customs have optimized the "non - one - batch - one - certificate" policy for gold imports, expanding applicable customs from 10 to 15, extending the license validity period to 9 months and allowing multiple declarations within the validity period, which is beneficial to the gold trade [2] - Chinese leaders proposed a global governance initiative at the "SCO+" meeting, aiming to promote the multipolarization of the international monetary system and improve the global financial governance system [2] b) Price Logic - In the European session on Tuesday, gold hovered near the historical high of $3,700 per ounce. Market bets on the Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut continued to suppress the US dollar, driving up non - yielding assets. The market focus is on the Fed's policy meeting this week [3] - US economic data in August showed that retail sales and industrial output both exceeded expectations, causing short - term pressure on gold and silver. Meanwhile, the unexpected decline of Canada's CPI strengthened the interest - rate cut expectation, and the probability of a rate cut this week in the swap market rose to 93% [3] c) Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities includes special indices (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index, PPI Commodity Index) with corresponding increases of +0.62%, +0.79%, +0.67%, and +0.39% respectively on September 16, 2025 [44] - The precious metals index on September 16, 2025, had a daily increase of +1.15%, a 5 - day increase of +1.69%, a 1 - month increase of +9.09%, and a year - to - date increase of +33.31% [45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The current expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver for gold prices. US inflation and fundamental data are in line with this trend, causing gold prices to fluctuate at high levels. In the long - term, gold will still benefit from the contraction of the US dollar's credit [1][3]. - Although the continuous deterioration of non - farm data has temporarily suppressed the elasticity of silver prices, as the performance of US assets diverges and the market's trading of a soft landing continues to strengthen, silver prices are expected to challenge historical highs in the combination of a soft landing and interest rate cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Logic - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core driver. The 2 - year US Treasury bond has priced in the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the quarterly FOMC meeting on the subsequent path. The central bank's gold - buying behavior continues, and geopolitical conflicts have resurfaced, which is favorable for gold allocation. In the long - term, gold benefits from the contraction of the US dollar's credit [3]. - **Silver**: The continuous deterioration of non - farm data has temporarily suppressed silver's elasticity. However, as the US recession expectation weakens, the obstacle to silver's elasticity is removed. Silver prices are expected to challenge historical highs in the combination of a soft landing and interest rate cuts [3]. 3.2 Outlook Next week, focus on the FOMC meeting guidance and US retail data. The weekly range for spot London gold is [3500, 3800], and for spot London silver is [39, 45] [3]. 3.3 Key Information - China and the US delegations are holding talks in Madrid to resolve trade tensions, and the US and China are close to reaching an agreement on TikTok [2]. - A drone invaded Romanian airspace during a Russian attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, forcing Romania to scramble fighter jets [2]. - The Fed will hold a policy meeting on September 16 - 17. There are uncertainties regarding the attendance list due to a lawsuit to dismiss a Fed governor and a pending Senate approval for a new appointment [2]. 3.4 Index Information - On September 15, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index is not detailed. The commodity index is 2239.53, up 0.50%; the commodity 20 index is 2507.34, up 0.37%; the industrial products index is 2254.68, up 0.90% [46]. - The precious metals index on September 15, 2025, has a daily decline of 0.27%, a 5 - day increase of 0.29%, a 1 - month increase of 7.34%, and a year - to - date increase of 31.79% [48].