Core Viewpoint - The report from ING suggests that a strong U.S. non-farm payroll data release could lead to further appreciation of the U.S. dollar [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Employment Data Expectations - The U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show an increase of 100,000 jobs in July according to a Wall Street Journal survey [1] - ING's analyst Francesco Pesole anticipates a higher increase of 115,000 jobs, while market rumors suggest an increase around 120,000 jobs [1] Currency Market Impact - The U.S. dollar reached a two-month high against a basket of currencies overnight [1] - The upcoming employment data is viewed as a significant opportunity for the dollar to strengthen further [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing weak fluctuations around $3,330, influenced by technical resistance and market uncertainties regarding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Economic Data - Recent U.S. inflation and employment data show strong performance, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) remaining flat month-on-month and a narrowing year-on-year increase, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates persistent inflation [3]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may only implement limited rate cuts within the year, despite high core CPI and hawkish comments from Fed officials [3]. Market Reactions - President Trump's comments about potentially dismissing Fed Chair Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [3]. - New tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper have heightened global market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading in the lower Bollinger Band range after a peak of $3,499.83, indicating a consolidation phase with key resistance at $3,444.82 and support at $3,278 [4]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, but diminishing selling pressure suggests a potential weak rebound [5]. - The RSI is stable at 49.47, indicating neutral market sentiment but slightly weak, with no clear direction expected in the short term [5].

Market Overview - Strong U.S. employment data has alleviated market concerns regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant increase in the U.S. dollar index, which rose to a high of 97.42 before closing at 97.08, up 0.32% [1][2] - The precious metals market showed mixed results, with spot gold experiencing a substantial decline, dropping to a low of $3311.65, a decrease of over $50 from its daily high, ultimately closing down 0.94% at $3325.50 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver, while also retreating, saw a strong rebound, closing up 0.78% at $36.82 per ounce [1][2] Employment Data - The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report indicated an increase of 147,000 jobs in the U.S., surpassing the June expectation of 110,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - Weekly jobless claims fell from 237,000 to 233,000, reflecting resilience in the U.S. labor market [3] - The ADP employment change for June marked the first decline in over two years, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 95,000 jobs [3] Manufacturing and Job Vacancies - The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index improved from 48.5 in May to 49.0 in June, exceeding expert expectations of 48.8, indicating a slight recovery in U.S. manufacturing activity [4] - Job openings in the U.S. rose from 4.395 million in April to 4.76 million in May, surpassing the market expectation of 7.3 million [4]

Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000[2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2%[2] - Labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected and previous 62.4%[2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%[2] Market Reactions - Following the non-farm data release, U.S. stock markets rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 0.8%, 1.0%, and 0.8% respectively[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.3 basis points to 4.34%[2] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4% to 97.1, while spot gold prices fell by 0.9% to $3326.1 per ounce[2] Fed Rate Expectations - The probability of a rate cut in July dropped from 25% to 0% after the non-farm data release[2] - The probability of a September rate cut decreased from 100% to approximately 73%[2] - The expected number of rate cuts for the year was revised down from 2.6 to 2.1[2] ADP vs Non-Farm Data - The ADP report showed a loss of 33,000 jobs in June, significantly below the expected gain of 95,000[3] - The divergence between ADP and non-farm data is attributed to differences in statistical coverage and the impact of tariffs[3] - Non-farm data is considered more reliable as it covers approximately 80% of employment positions compared to ADP's 17%[3] Economic Outlook - The strong non-farm data suggests resilience in the U.S. economy, supporting previous assessments[4] - The report indicates that if tariffs do not escalate further, a soft landing for the economy remains likely[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance given manageable economic downturn risks and rising inflation concerns[4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is influenced by strong U.S. employment data, while central bank gold purchasing trends provide long-term support for prices [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current Gold Prices - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 775.68 CNY per gram, down 0.4% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3337.5 USD per ounce, down 0.16% [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Strong U.S. employment data for June exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which in turn pressured gold prices [2]. - Over 90% of surveyed central banks believe they will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, with net purchases expected to exceed 1300 tons by 2025 [3]. - Recent geopolitical stability and trade negotiations have reduced gold's safe-haven demand, although potential increases in U.S. debt could enhance its appeal [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term outlook suggests gold may remain weak unless there is a significant deterioration in U.S. unemployment or inflation data [4]. - Long-term potential for gold price increases exists due to weakening U.S. dollar credibility and ongoing central bank purchases, but geopolitical and trade developments must be closely monitored [4].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report will play a crucial role in determining whether the recent downward trend of the U.S. dollar will continue [1] Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell believes that persistent inflation and a solid labor market indicate that interest rates should remain at restrictive levels [1] - Any unexpected downturn in the employment report could weaken Powell's position and increase market expectations for a rate cut in the July meeting [1] - Unless the employment data is weaker than expected, the dollar may continue to consolidate before the U.S. holiday on July 4 [1]

Group 1 - Silver prices closed at $36.55 per ounce on July 2, with a daily increase of 1.51%, reaching a high of $36.60 and a low of $35.86 during the day [1] - As of July 2, silver ETF holdings were reported at 14,846.12 tons, a decrease of 22.89 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - The recent trend shows silver prices in a bullish channel, with multiple attempts to break the $38 per ounce resistance level, although it has not been successfully maintained [4] Group 2 - The MACD indicator suggests that bullish momentum is strengthening, with the fast and slow lines operating above the zero axis and the histogram showing increasing red bars [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 60, indicating a strong market condition with potential for further upward movement in silver prices [4] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may influence market sentiment towards silver [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant downturn due to multiple macroeconomic and technical factors, with a shift in focus from geopolitical issues to U.S. economic data, particularly employment indicators impacting monetary policy [1][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened last week at $3,380.10 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $3,391, but quickly fell below the $3,350 support level, which turned into resistance. The price dropped below $3,300 for the first time on Tuesday and fell to a weekly low of $3,256 on Friday, with a slight recovery to around $3,275 [1][5]. Market Sentiment - A recent Kitco survey indicates that the majority of Wall Street analysts are bearish on gold prices, with only 35% expecting an increase, while over half anticipate further declines. In contrast, 51% of retail investors remain bullish, highlighting a significant divergence in views between institutions and retail investors [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Analysts express differing opinions on gold's technical outlook. Some suggest that if gold cannot regain the $3,344 level, it will maintain a downward trend, potentially targeting $3,175 if it falls below $3,258. Others believe that the long-term support for gold remains intact due to inflation concerns and expectations of monetary easing [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming U.S. employment data, including ISM manufacturing PMI, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, are expected to be critical in determining gold's price trajectory. Weak data could reinforce rate cut expectations, potentially leading to a resurgence in gold prices [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, with Chairman Powell indicating that recent economic data could have supported further rate cuts if not for concerns over tariffs impacting inflation efforts [1] - Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, but emphasized that the strong economy and job market do not necessitate immediate action [1][4] - Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed support for an early rate cut, with Vice Chair Bowman suggesting a potential cut as early as July if inflation continues to decline or the job market weakens [1][4] Group 2 - Concerns remain regarding U.S. inflation, particularly due to uncertainties surrounding trade policies and tariffs, which could lead to persistent inflationary pressures [2] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the latest meeting, marking the fourth consecutive time without a change, while also raising inflation expectations for 2025-2027 [2] - Recent inflation data has not yet shown significant impacts from tariff policies, indicating a delayed transmission effect on prices [3] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market remains robust, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000 in May, despite being the lowest since February, and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% [3] - Powell reiterated the dual mandate of the Federal Reserve to support employment while ensuring price stability, suggesting that the economy is in a "good position" and that immediate rate adjustments are unnecessary [4] - The Fed's economic outlook indicates a consensus for two rate cuts this year, although the number of officials not supporting a cut has increased, reflecting growing internal divisions [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. inflation is moving towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target, while labor data suggests a potential rise in unemployment rates [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased slightly by 0.1% in May, and the number of unemployment claims remains high at 248,000 [1] - These factors have heightened expectations for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in early fall, with a 61% probability for a rate cut in September, up from 58% the previous day [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meetings in the next week and July [1] - The likelihood of two or more rate cuts by December has risen to 78%, compared to 70% the day before [1] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, sensitive to Federal Reserve movements, has decreased to 3.891% due to the impact of this data [1]