Core Viewpoint - President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook on grounds of alleged mortgage fraud, marking the first time in over a century that a president has removed a Fed governor, indicating a significant escalation in Trump's conflict with the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Statements - Lisa Cook's attorney announced plans to sue Trump over the dismissal, seeking judicial review of the decision [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve spokesperson stated that the law provides long-term fixed terms for governors, and a president can only dismiss them for "just cause," emphasizing the importance of this protection for monetary policy decisions [3][12]. Group 2: Trump's Intentions and Future Appointments - Trump expressed a desire for "100% transparency" in the Federal Reserve and indicated readiness for legal battles regarding Cook's dismissal, while also stating he has suitable candidates in mind to replace her [5][10]. - Reports suggest Trump is considering Stephen Moore and David Malpass as potential replacements for Cook on the Federal Reserve Board [5][10]. Group 3: Implications for the Federal Reserve's Independence - Experts warn that if Trump successfully dismisses Cook, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence and leading to greater economic uncertainty in the future [12][13]. - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, with only two currently appointed by Trump, indicating a potential shift in the board's composition if more vacancies are created [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, being the first such dismissal in over a century [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Actions and Implications - Lisa Cook's attorney announced plans to sue Trump over the dismissal, citing that the Federal Reserve Act allows for removal only under "just cause" [2]. - The Federal Reserve emphasized its commitment to fulfilling its legal responsibilities and adhering to any court rulings [2]. - Legal experts suggest that proving Cook's alleged mortgage fraud in court will be a significant challenge for the Trump administration [6]. Group 2: Political Motivations and Future Appointments - Trump indicated he has candidates in mind to replace Cook, aiming to secure a majority on the Federal Reserve Board [3][5]. - The current composition of the Federal Reserve Board includes members appointed by previous administrations, with only two being Trump appointees [4]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower interest rates has been a driving factor behind the dismissal [4][5]. Group 3: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Experts warn that if Trump's dismissal of Cook is upheld, it could set a precedent for presidential influence over the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining its independence [7][8]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining stable and unbiased monetary policy, free from political pressures [7].

Group 1 - President Trump has threatened to dismiss Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook if she does not resign due to allegations of mortgage fraud [1] - Trump has been critical of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and has previously targeted Fed Chair Jerome Powell for various reasons [1] - Cook has stated she will not resign under pressure, despite the allegations made against her [1] Group 2 - If Cook is forced to leave the Federal Reserve, Trump would have the opportunity to exert more influence over U.S. monetary policy, potentially undermining the independence of the central bank [2] - Should a vacancy arise, four out of seven Federal Reserve Board seats would be appointed by Trump, increasing his control over the board [2] - A recent incident involved a Trump supporter confronting Cook at a public event, highlighting the political tensions surrounding her position [2]

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference will take place from August 21 to 23 in Wyoming, attracting global investor attention, particularly towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, which is expected to provide insights into future monetary policy directions [1][4] - The theme of this year's conference is "Labor Market Transformation: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy," closely related to recent significant changes in the U.S. labor market, which has shown signs of cooling from May to July [3] - Non-farm payroll data for May and June was revised down by over 250,000, with only 73,000 new jobs added in July, and wage growth slowing from 6% in June 2022 to approximately 3.9% [3] Group 2 - U.S. inflation data has been mixed, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing moderate increases, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9%, the largest monthly increase in over three years, indicating rising input inflation risks [5] - Investors are weighing economic data ahead of Powell's speech, with an approximately 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, as major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have adjusted their forecasts for the first rate cut from December to September [10] - JPMorgan predicts that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.4% or higher in August, the Fed may aggressively cut rates by 50 basis points in September, with expectations of three consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, and December [11]

Group 1 - Spot gold prices experienced a slight rebound, trading around $3318.88 per ounce, while spot silver continued its fifth consecutive day of decline, trading at approximately $37.20 per ounce [1] - Recent U.S. economic data has unexpectedly declined, while stronger-than-expected PPI data suggests that Trump's tariff policies may still exert inflationary pressure, leading to a significant likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting [2] - The market for gold has been characterized by a stalemate due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy and the dollar, with prices hovering around $3350 over the past three months, supported by stable investment demand [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that spot gold is in a bearish correction channel, with prices remaining below the 50-day EMA, suggesting continued downward pressure unless new positive signals emerge [3] - For spot silver, the 14-day RSI has dropped below 50, intensifying bearish sentiment, with prices likely to approach the support level at $37.11; a breach of this level could lead to further declines towards $35.70 and potentially as low as $32.96 [3] - Initial resistance for silver is seen at the 9-day EMA around $37.75, with a more significant challenge at the upper channel limit near $38.70; a breakthrough could shift market sentiment positively, allowing prices to target the July 23 high of $39.53 [3]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the conflict between former President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with Trump criticizing Powell for maintaining high interest rates, which he claims is damaging the U.S. housing industry [2][3][4] - Trump's urgent call for interest rate cuts is driven by the significant impact of high rates on the housing market, where mortgage rates have surged above 7%, leading to a 23% drop in new home sales [5][6] - The housing industry is crucial to the U.S. economy, accounting for nearly 15% of GDP, making it a key indicator of economic health [6][7] Group 2 - Powell's resistance to lowering interest rates is based on persistent core PCE inflation at 3.2% and a robust job market, which he believes could lead to a resurgence of inflation if rates are cut [9][10] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is questioned, as historical precedents show past chairpersons have been influenced by political figures, yet Powell is determined to maintain this independence despite Trump's pressure [10][12] - The ongoing standoff between Trump and Powell poses risks not only to the U.S. economy but also to the global economy, as changes in U.S. interest rates can have widespread implications for global capital flows and economic stability [20][22][24]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market currencies experienced a slight decline as traders processed signs of progress in Ukraine peace negotiations while awaiting more insights on U.S. monetary policy from the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting in Jackson Hole [1] Group 1: Currency Market - The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index fell slightly, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline, influenced by the Brazilian real, Indonesian rupiah, and Colombian peso [1] - The U.S. dollar saw a modest increase amid low trading volumes as traders focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech to solidify their bets on a rate cut in September [1] Group 2: Stock Market - The index tracking emerging market stocks also experienced a slight decline, reflecting the overall negative sentiment in the currency market [1]

市场就是如此扑朔迷离，刚刚登上新高的比特币，还没来得及欢欣鼓舞，就在4天内下挫接近1万美元， 甚至还有进一步下探趋势。而近期最亮的"仔"以太坊也不遑多让，迎头上升的大好态势被斩断，从4788 美元回到了4300美元下方。对波动更为敏感的山寨市场再度被抽血，多数代币下跌超15%，给蠢蠢欲动 的山寨板块又降了一次温。 要是回顾降息这一议题，在美国，堪称一场政治大戏。 紧缩周期已长达三年的美国，成效显著。无论外界是否怨声载道，通胀率逐渐可控是事实，而拜登当时 的改善家庭资产负债表直接发钱的操作虽给通胀带来挑战，但也的确通过将债务从家庭转嫁给政府，促 使美国完成了经济软着陆。 然而，本来预计今年就快结束的紧缩周期，让特朗普横插一脚的关税大战所打破。美联储陷入了两难境 地，一方面，GDP萎缩与通胀高企两难全；另一方面，保留冗余以应对总统的后续政策也有必要。特朗 普与美联储的对立格局，就此形成。 这厢特朗普气急败坏，连发数条社媒认为美联储降息过晚，威胁要让鲍威尔下台，甚至找上影子主席， 要在美联储安插自己人，祭出"后继有人"的大招。那厢鲍威尔顶住压力坚守阵地，硬刚"他没资格开除 我"，表示CPI和通胀才是决定一切的核心。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to act to prevent further deterioration in the labor market [1] Monetary Policy - Bowman urges other Federal Reserve decision-makers to begin cutting rates at the upcoming September meeting, citing recent weak labor market data as a reinforcement of her stance [1] - She believes that the proposed cuts will help avoid unnecessary worsening of labor market conditions and reduce the likelihood of needing larger policy adjustments in the future [1] Economic Outlook - Bowman reiterates that tariff-driven price increases are unlikely to sustain inflationary pressures [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained interest rates so far this year, with Bowman previously supporting this stance until June [1] - In July, both Bowman and Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 basis point rate cut [1]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board by President Trump signals a clear direction for future U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Philosophy and Policy - Milan's economic philosophy aligns closely with Trump's "America First" agenda, advocating for supply-side economic policies such as tax cuts, deregulation, and increased energy production as fundamental measures against inflation [1]. - He is a staunch "hawk" on inflation, criticizing the Fed's previous rate cuts under Powell, arguing that the Fed's tolerance for inflation rates close to 3% undermines the legislative spirit of "stabilizing prices" [1][5]. Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Milan has expressed concerns over the blurred lines between fiscal and monetary policy since the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting that this has compromised the Fed's institutional independence [1][3]. - His call for Congress to reform the Fed's structure to allow the White House greater power to dismiss Fed officials indicates a push towards reducing the Fed's autonomy [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications of the Nomination - The unexpected departure of current board member Kugler provides Trump with a strategic opportunity, as Milan's short-term appointment could influence future leadership decisions at the Fed [4]. - Milan's presence on the board, even for a brief period, is expected to heighten market uncertainty regarding the Fed's future policy direction, reflecting Trump's intent to exert influence over monetary policy [4][5].