Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, influenced by the unexpected significant decline in the US PPI data and the anticipated rise in the US CPI data, alongside a stabilizing dollar index [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US PPI for August unexpectedly decreased, leading the market to almost fully price in three rate cuts for the remainder of the year [3]. - If the upcoming US CPI data does not show a decline from previous values, it may weaken bullish sentiment for gold prices, potentially leading to a consolidation or downward movement [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Due to the unexpected decline in PPI and favorable initial jobless claims data, gold prices are likely to remain stable with a tendency for slight upward movement [3]. - The daily chart indicates that gold prices formed a top reversal pattern but have not yet fallen below the 5-day moving average, suggesting that bullish sentiment remains dominant until a drop below this average occurs [3]. - If gold prices do drop below the 5-day moving average, potential support levels are identified at around $3570 or further below $3500, which could present new bullish entry opportunities [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a mixed performance in the U.S. CPI and PPI data, leading to a reduction in market expectations for the extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, while still maintaining some support for potential cuts in the future [4] - The U.S. July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, which is below the market expectation of 2.8% and consistent with the previous month, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3.0% and marking the highest level since February [4] - The July PPI showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, the highest level since February, significantly surpassing the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the largest since June 2022 [4] Group 2 - The latest CME "FedWatch" data indicates a 15.4% probability of maintaining interest rates in September, an 84.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut, and a 6% probability of maintaining rates in October, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 42.4% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 51.5% [2] - In the domestic market, major contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate rising over 3% and polysilicon, palm oil, and industrial silicon increasing over 2%, while SC and eggs fell by over 1% [3]

Core Insights - The US July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations. This marks the end of five consecutive months of core CPI underperformance [1][2] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected to rise by 2.8% but actually increased by 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected to rise by 3.0% but increased by 3.06%. The discrepancies are attributed to seasonal adjustments and rounding issues [1][2] - The inflation structure indicates a rebound in used car prices, tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts, and fluctuations in airline ticket prices and hotel rates, contributing to the inflation rebound this month [1][3] Inflation Structure - Core goods CPI month-on-month increased slightly from 0.20% to 0.21%, with furniture, clothing, and leisure goods showing varying degrees of decline. Transportation goods improved from -0.38% to 0.22%, with both new and used car prices rebounding [3] - Housing inflation saw a rise in residential services from 0.18% to 0.23%, with owner-equivalent rent (OER) and rent price rent (RPR) increasing to 0.28% and 0.26%, respectively, returning to pre-pandemic levels [3] - Super core CPI rebounded significantly from 0.21% to 0.48%, driven by contributions from medical insurance and transportation [3] Market Reaction - Following the July CPI data release, interest rate cut expectations increased, leading to a decline in the 2-year US Treasury yield to 3.72%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.31%, with the 10-year real yield reaching 1.93% [4] - The market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," resulting in a drop in the dollar index below 98 and a decline in gold prices, while US stocks and silver prices rose [4] Trading Strategy - Current market expectations for rate cuts are overly optimistic, with a projected 2.4 cuts/61 basis points for the year. The optimistic scenario suggests two cuts (in September and December), while the pessimistic scenario suggests one cut (in October) [5] - The current pricing of 61 basis points for rate cuts indicates at least an 11 basis point adjustment potential. Overly optimistic rate cut expectations imply upward risks for the dollar index and short-term interest rates [5] - Future gold price increases may stem from "inflation exceeding expectations → delayed rate cut expectations → increased economic pressure → downward revision of growth outlook" [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices faced downward pressure, dropping below the $3350 mark and reaching $3340, with New York futures also falling below $3400 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.30% on the day [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin made a clear call for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, suggesting that the benchmark interest rate should be at least 1.5 percentage points lower than its current level, which led to a spike in gold prices earlier in the day [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 17 have increased significantly, with traders now betting on a 99% chance of a 25 basis point cut, up from 91.4% the previous day [3] Group 2 - Investors are awaiting the release of U.S. PPI and initial jobless claims data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's policy direction; economists expect July's PPI and core PPI to rise by 2.5% and 2.9% year-on-year, respectively [4] - If industrial producer prices unexpectedly slow down, it could increase the likelihood of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially weakening the dollar and driving gold prices higher [4] Group 3 - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are currently focused on short-term rebounds, with key support levels identified between $3355 and $3352; if these levels do not hold, further declines could test the previous low of $3342 and the $3330 area [5] - The upper resistance level remains at $3375-$3380; if this resistance is breached, the next significant resistance level to watch will be around $3400 [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two additional cuts in 2026, lowering the terminal rate to between 3% and 3.25% [1] - The consumer price index (CPI) data for July showed a slight increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2%, aligning with economists' expectations, while gasoline prices fell by 2.2% [2][3] - Following the release of weak non-farm payroll data, Goldman Sachs indicated that the adjustment in employment growth data was the most significant in 57 years, suggesting a potential reduction in monthly job growth expectations by 45,000 to 80,000 [3] Group 2 - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 93%, with a 7% chance for a 50 basis point cut [4] - Traders anticipate a total rate cut of approximately 65 basis points this year, an increase from previous predictions of around 60 basis points [5] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has advocated for a 50 basis point cut, citing recent weak employment data as a reason for a more significant reduction [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows inflation remains manageable, which supports market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][3][4] - The July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest month-on-month increase in six months [1][3] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy shifted significantly, with a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, while the likelihood of maintaining rates was only 6.6% [3] Group 2 - The July CPI data suggests that inflation is still within a controllable range, reinforcing market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4] - Investors are advised to monitor statements from Federal Reserve officials and subsequent economic data to assess whether the rate cut magnitude and pace align with current market expectations [4] - The high expectations for a rate cut have already influenced the pricing in the dollar, stock market, and fixed income markets, potentially leading to a weaker dollar and a continued upward trend in risk assets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced an 8-day consecutive rise, reaching 3674 points, raising questions about potential opportunities for stocks that have not yet increased in value [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The recent U.S. CPI data has increased the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September, which could provide further upward momentum for the A-share market [1] - The current market trend is characterized by a "slow bull" pattern, with daily rotations among different sectors, preventing a uniform bullish sentiment [1] - As long as short sellers do not dominate the market, the overall market remains secure, indicating that many sectors and individual stocks still have opportunities for catch-up growth [1] Group 2: Short-term Strategy - Given the rapid increase in the index and the peak sentiment among numerous stocks, a consolidation phase is expected after breaking through 3674 points to digest floating capital [1] - The company suggests maintaining a bullish outlook but advises controlling the pace of investments in the short term to secure profits, with plans to resume aggressive strategies once the market stabilizes [1]

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, and the core CPI rose by 0.32%, both meeting expectations[1] - Year-on-year, the CPI was expected to be 2.8% but came in at 2.7%, while the core CPI was expected at 3.0% and actual was 3.06%, with discrepancies attributed to seasonal adjustments and rounding issues[1] Inflation Structure - The rebound in used car prices, tariff impacts on furniture and auto parts, and fluctuations in airfare and hotel prices contributed to the inflation increase[1] - Core goods CPI month-on-month slightly increased from 0.20% to 0.21%, while transportation goods improved from -0.38% to 0.22%[1] - Housing services rose from 0.18% to 0.23%, with owner’s equivalent rent (OER) and rent price rent (RPR) at 0.28% and 0.26% respectively, returning to pre-pandemic levels[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the market narrative shifted to "moderate inflation → increased rate cut expectations → improved growth outlook," leading to a drop in 2-year Treasury yields to 3.72% and a rise in 10-year yields to 4.31%[1] - The dollar index fell below 98, while gold prices decreased, and U.S. stocks and silver prices increased[1] Rate Cut Expectations - Current market pricing suggests 2.4 rate cuts (61 basis points) for the year, but there is an anticipated adjustment of at least 11 basis points downward[1] - The optimistic scenario for rate cuts is two times (September and December), while the pessimistic scenario is one time (October)[1] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential overreach in Trump’s policies, excessive rate cuts leading to inflation rebound, and prolonged high rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[1]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States in July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which aligns with the previous value and is slightly below the expected rate of 2.8% [1] - The month-on-month CPI, seasonally adjusted, increased by 0.2%, matching expectations and down from the previous month's increase of 0.3% [1]

原油方面：昨日晚间（8月11日），乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，与莫迪讨论了对俄罗斯石油的制裁问 题，我们同意计划于9月在联合国大会上举行会晤并制定互访计划。据相关媒体报道，15日俄美在阿拉 斯加会谈结束后，普京将会邀请特朗普来俄罗斯参加下一轮会谈。此消息表明，俄美之间的谈判仍有诸 多不确定因素，但前景依旧向好。供应端来看，OPEC+已经确定在9月继续维持54.8万桶增产力度，且9 月将提前完成220万桶的原定增产计划。需求端来看，欧美夏季出行高峰还在继续，季节性利好因素仍 在，延缓了油价下跌速度。叠加中美关税顺利延期，减少了利空压力，短期内油价可能出现短暂反弹。 8月12日市场速览 ：1、中美关税顺利延期90日。2、特朗普在社交媒体上高调宣布，黄金不会被征收关 税。3、特朗普团队将鲍曼、杰斐逊和洛根纳入美联储主席候选人之列，有望今年秋季宣布美联储主席 人选。 技术面：昨日日线收小阳线，有一定的见底效果。1小时来看，市场仍处在下跌趋势，价格盘整至60日 均线之上，但仍在120均线下方运行，关注未来价格能否反弹，今日多空分水岭在64.50美元一线。 美元指数：据白宫有关人员透露，美国总统特朗普正在考虑让美联储两位副主 ...