Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the United States in July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which aligns with the previous value and is slightly below the expected rate of 2.8% [1] - The month-on-month CPI, seasonally adjusted, increased by 0.2%, matching expectations and down from the previous month's increase of 0.3% [1]

原油方面：昨日晚间（8月11日），乌克兰总统泽连斯基表示，与莫迪讨论了对俄罗斯石油的制裁问 题，我们同意计划于9月在联合国大会上举行会晤并制定互访计划。据相关媒体报道，15日俄美在阿拉 斯加会谈结束后，普京将会邀请特朗普来俄罗斯参加下一轮会谈。此消息表明，俄美之间的谈判仍有诸 多不确定因素，但前景依旧向好。供应端来看，OPEC+已经确定在9月继续维持54.8万桶增产力度，且9 月将提前完成220万桶的原定增产计划。需求端来看，欧美夏季出行高峰还在继续，季节性利好因素仍 在，延缓了油价下跌速度。叠加中美关税顺利延期，减少了利空压力，短期内油价可能出现短暂反弹。 8月12日市场速览 ：1、中美关税顺利延期90日。2、特朗普在社交媒体上高调宣布，黄金不会被征收关 税。3、特朗普团队将鲍曼、杰斐逊和洛根纳入美联储主席候选人之列，有望今年秋季宣布美联储主席 人选。 技术面：昨日日线收小阳线，有一定的见底效果。1小时来看，市场仍处在下跌趋势，价格盘整至60日 均线之上，但仍在120均线下方运行，关注未来价格能否反弹，今日多空分水岭在64.50美元一线。 美元指数：据白宫有关人员透露，美国总统特朗普正在考虑让美联储两位副主 ...

马来亚银行分析师表示，市场对美国CPI数据持谨慎态度。除非有明显迹象显示关税带来的物价压力显 著加大，否则此次通胀报告不太可能大幅改变市场对美联储9月降息或进一步宽松的预期。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

日内将可关注美国7月NFIB小型企业信心指数、美国7月CPI年率及月率等各项数据，市场整体预期偏向利空金价的概率较大，故此日内来看仍可高空看回 落为主，但如今日反弹触及3370美元或上方，就算遇阻回落，只要不收线在3340美元下方，后市都将再度转为看涨反弹为主。 反之如数据弱于预期，则将会提升降息预期，推动金价持稳反弹，那么本周后市将继续回归到低多看涨的策略。 张尧浠：黄金税谣言澄清金价走低、日内再迎美CPI回落出尽 上交易日周一(8月11日)：国际黄金大幅回落收跌，因美国总统特朗普表示不会对进口金条征收关税，中美再次暂停实施24%关税90天，欧洲领导人及泽连 斯基将与特朗普通话等，减弱了黄金避险需求； 一举收复上周涨幅，一度跌至60日等均线下方，空头力量加强，有望再度回踩100日均线支撑目标，但日内短周期有止跌反弹需求，关注反弹动力，如今 日不能反弹收线在中轨或5日均线上方，则后市仍将继续看回落触及100日均线支撑后再看反弹。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3398.34美元/盎司，直接先行走强录得日内高点3404.51美元，之后遇阻回落，持续走低，并震荡偏弱，延续至美盘尾录日内 低点3341.22美元，最终有 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a significant decline due to reduced geopolitical tensions, impacting its safe-haven demand, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve officials' speeches [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a 2.8% year-over-year increase, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year [2]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.33% month-over-month increase in core CPI for July, aligning with market expectations, while overall CPI is projected to rise by 0.27% [2]. - Bank of America predicts a 0.24% month-over-month increase in overall CPI and a 0.31% increase in core CPI for July, which could elevate the core CPI year-over-year growth from 2.9% to 3.1% [2]. Market Impact - If CPI data exceeds expectations, the U.S. dollar may strengthen further, putting additional downward pressure on gold prices; conversely, weaker data or renewed geopolitical risks could enhance gold's appeal as a safe haven [2]. Technical Analysis - A closing price below $3,300 for gold could shift the outlook to bearish, while a breakout above the $3,400 resistance level may pave the way for new historical highs [3]. - Current support levels for gold are around $3,365, followed by $3,350 and $3,335, with $3,300 being a critical short-term level [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the upcoming US CPI data for July is a crucial economic indicator, especially in the context of rising inflation expectations due to tariff policies [1] - Despite recent tariff developments, including increased tariffs on August 7 and a proposed 100% tariff threat on chips, the overall consumer price increase in the US for Q2 remained below 3.0% [1] - The S&P Global US PMI data, which serves as a leading indicator for CPI trends, suggests that inflation may rise in the second half of 2025, indicating potential future price acceleration [1] Group 2 - The forthcoming CPI data will be essential in confirming whether prices began to accelerate in July, which is critical for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] - Given the potential volatility in prices, the Federal Reserve is currently adopting a wait-and-see approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States, highlighting how tariff increases have contributed to inflationary pressures in recent months [2][3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on CPI - The inflation effect of tariffs is evident in the June data, with notable increases in prices for furniture (1%), clothing (0.4%), and entertainment goods (0.8%) [3][8]. - It is estimated that tariffs have already been reflected in the CPI, with a potential impact of 14% if core goods prices remained at February levels, or 40% if they followed last year's declining trend [4][14]. - The overall effective tariff rate in the U.S. increased by approximately 8.3 percentage points from March to June, with the latest estimate suggesting it could rise to 17.3% [10][19]. Group 2: Remaining Tariff Effects - If the overall tariff rate reaches 17.3%, the remaining unreflected tariff impact on core goods prices could contribute an additional 0.5 to 0.54 percentage points to the overall CPI [19]. - Projections indicate that if the remaining tariff effects are realized gradually over the next three months, the CPI year-on-year could be 3.2% and 3.3% for the third and fourth quarters, respectively [19][29]. Group 3: June CPI Data Analysis - The June CPI rose to 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations, while the core CPI increased to 2.9% [20][29]. - The breadth of CPI inflation has widened, with the proportion of items with year-on-year increases exceeding 2% rising from 40.8% to 44.1% [20][24]. - Core goods prices saw a significant increase, with the CPI for core goods rising from 0% to 0.2% month-on-month, driven by higher prices in imported goods [24][26]. Group 4: Market Reaction - Following the CPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts decreasing from 1.93 to 1.76 [29]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.53% to 98.63, and the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by 4.8 basis points to 4.481% [29].

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn from July 15 to 16, with Bitcoin's price dropping from a historical high of $123,100 to $116,300, marking a daily decline of over 5% [1] - Major cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin also saw declines ranging from 4% to 8% [1] - The crash resulted in a surge of liquidations, with 135,800 individuals affected and a total liquidation amount of $493 million (approximately 3.54 billion RMB), with nearly 80% of losses coming from long positions [1] Bitcoin Market Dynamics - On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin's exchange supply has fallen to a historical low of 14.5%, while the number of whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has increased to 2,135, suggesting sustained confidence among long-term holders [3] - The recent price correction is viewed as a standard adjustment following a market overheating, with the next key support level for Bitcoin identified at $114,000, a price point that previously triggered significant short covering [3] - Over the past three months, Bitcoin has seen an increase of over 40% due to institutional inflows, with a notable single-day surge of 6.8% on July 14 [3] Market Influences - The release of the U.S. June CPI data coincided with the market crash, leading investors to preemptively withdraw from risk assets. The CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [4] - Concerns about potential inflation rebound have led to fears that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, with analysts noting that cryptocurrencies are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes [4] Regulatory Environment - Matrixport has warned of tightening U.S. regulatory policies, with the SEC potentially expanding its enforcement on "tokenized securities," which could lead to prolonged volatility in risk assets [5] - Despite the challenges, some institutions maintain confidence in Bitcoin's price trajectory, with Bernstein reiterating a year-end target of $150,000 for Bitcoin, emphasizing that the current cycle is institutionally driven, contrasting with the retail-driven bubble of 2017 [5]

Core Insights - LME copper inventory has confirmed a bottom, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [1] - Recent US CPI data has reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing interest rate cuts in the near term [1] - Institutions believe that the copper price correction is not yet over, suggesting ongoing volatility in the market [1] Industry Analysis - The confirmation of LME copper inventory bottom may influence future trading strategies and market sentiment [1] - The impact of US CPI data on Federal Reserve policy could lead to shifts in investment strategies across various sectors, particularly those reliant on copper [1] - Ongoing monitoring of copper prices is essential as institutions anticipate further corrections, highlighting the need for investors to stay informed [1]

Report Summary Core View - The expectation of a September interest rate cut in the US is stable, and index futures are likely to fluctuate strongly [1] - On July 15, all four index futures contracts for the current month declined. IF dropped 0.12%, IH dropped 0.58%, IC dropped 0.12%, and IM dropped 0.44% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 44,249 lots, IH by 19,958 lots, IC by 34,305 lots, and IM by 77,808 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 3,863 lots, IH by 1,424 lots, IC by 3,901 lots, and IM by 18,183 lots [1][2] Data Tracking Index Futures Data | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Basis | Turnover (Billion) | Volume | Change | Open Interest | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4,019.06 | ↑0.03 | | 353.52 | | | | | | IF2507 | 4,009.6 | ↓0.12 | -9.46 | 47.2 | 39,238 | ↑10,856 | 45,718 | ↓4,132 | | IF2508 | 3,993.2 | ↓0.18 | -25.86 | 13.81 | 11,529 | ↑4,578 | 19,935 | ↑4,198 | | IF2509 | 3,980.6 | ↓0.24 | -38.46 | 74.76 | 62,583 | ↑24,994 | 152,828 | ↑2,640 | | IF2512 | 3,948.6 | ↓0.25 | -70.46 | 12.97 | 10,947 | ↑3,821 | 48,850 | ↑1,157 | | SSE 50 | 2,747.23 | ↓0.38 | | 79.81 | | | | | | IH2507 | 2,740.2 | ↓0.58 | -7.03 | 15.73 | 19,124 | ↑4,764 | 22,777 | ↓1,830 | | IH2508 | 2,735 | ↓0.66 | -12.23 | 3.14 | 3,820 | ↑1,118 | 5,522 | ↑1,353 | | IH2509 | 2,734.2 | ↓0.64 | -13.03 | 28.14 | 34,281 | ↑12,504 | 58,202 | ↑1,546 | | IH2512 | 2,735.2 | ↓0.66 | -12.03 | 3.34 | 4,069 | ↑1,572 | 10,978 | ↑355 | | CSI 500 | 6,018.76 | ↓0.03 | | 246.08 | | | | | | IC2507 | 6,008.2 | ↓0.12 | -10.56 | 47.05 | 39,182 | ↑11,059 | 47,615 | ↓5,099 | | IC2508 | 5,949 | ↓0.21 | -69.76 | 14.63 | 12,301 | ↑2,863 | 27,145 | ↑4,805 | | IC2509 | 5,893.4 | ↓0.26 | -125.36 | 45.59 | 38,675 | ↑16,208 | 99,289 | ↑4,885 | | IC2512 | 5,770.4 | ↓0.22 | -248.36 | 12.18 | 10,553 | ↑4,175 | 57,153 | ↓690 | | CSI 1000 | 6,442.83 | ↓0.30 | | 347.38 | | | | | | IM2507 | 6,422 | ↓0.44 | -20.83 | 62.98 | 49,078 | ↑11,709 | 54,685 | ↓4,311 | | IM2508 | 6,352.8 | ↓0.46 | -90.03 | 22.9 | 18,041 | ↑7,303 | 31,298 | ↑8,958 | | IM2509 | 6,277.4 | ↓0.55 | -165.43 | 151.01 | 120,268 | ↑49,084 | 181,672 | ↑13,659 | | IM2512 | 6,099 | ↓0.52 | -343.83 | 28.3 | 23,203 | ↑9,712 | 77,129 | ↑2,067 | [1] Positions of the Top 20 Members in Futures | Contract | Long Position Change | Net Long Position Change | Short Position Change | Net Short Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF2507 | -2,144 | | -3,380 | | | IF2508 | 3,343 | 4,266 | 3,708 | 2,495 | | IF2509 | 2,224 | | 1,362 | | | IF2512 | 843 | | 805 | | | IH2507 | -333 | 1,106 | -1,613 | | | IH2508 | Not announced | | Not announced | | | IH2509 | 1,282 | | 1,614 | 487 | | IH2512 | 157 | | 486 | | | IC2507 | -3,506 | | -3,980 | 1,971 | | IC2508 | 3,762 | 3,173 | 4,065 | | | IC2509 | 3,354 | | 2,862 | | | IC2512 | -437 | | -976 | | | IM2507 | -1,683 | | -2,516 | | | IM2508 | 5,802 | | 5,461 | | | IM2509 | 11,704 | 15,823 | 10,596 | 13,541 | | IM2512 | Not announced | | Not announced | | [5] Important Drivers - The 14th issue of Qiushi Journal published on July 16 will feature an important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, emphasizing that China's policy of utilizing foreign investment remains unchanged [6] - The US June unadjusted CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, the highest since February, in line with expectations. After seasonal adjustment, the CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, also in line with expectations. The unadjusted core CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the expected 3.0%. After seasonal adjustment, the core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% [6] - After the release of the US CPI report, traders continued to bet that the Fed may start cutting interest rates in September. The market pricing indicates that the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed remains around 60%. Traders still believe the probability of a rate cut this month is only 5% [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.73%. The trading volume of A-shares reached 1.64 trillion yuan, up from 1.48 trillion yuan the previous day. More than 4,000 stocks declined. CPO concept stocks strengthened collectively, with New Fiber Optic Communication Technology Co., Ltd. hitting the 20% daily limit and reaching a new all-time high. AI intelligent agent concept stocks showed late-day activity, and some real estate stocks rebounded. However, the photovoltaic industry chain, pharmaceutical stocks, and power stocks declined [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and the trend intensity of IC and IM is 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]