Group 1: Report Core View - The precious metals market entered a volatile pattern after a significant correction due to the release of profit - taking sentiment and the cooling of the tariff situation. The US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the government shutdown provided potential safe - haven support. Most Fed voters support a loose path, and a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the October FOMC meeting is almost certain. The market focuses on employment data and future rate - cut margins. The yen's low - level volatility and geopolitical factors also affect the market. Gold still has a high premium and is in an overbought area, so short - term correction risks should be guarded against. The precious metals' short - term trend may be wide - range volatile, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data [8]. - The short - term trend of gold and silver is expected to be wide - range volatile. The London gold price has strong support at the $4000 mark and a key resistance area around $4150. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade in the range of 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract in the range of 11000 - 11600 yuan/kg. The US CPI data on Friday will be a key factor, and a stronger - than - expected CPI may weaken rate - cut expectations and lead to a greater gold price correction [8]. Group 2: Weekly Summary Market Review - The profit - taking sentiment led to a significant correction in the precious metals market. The US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the 22 - day government shutdown provided potential safe - haven support. The tariff situation is likely to be stable, and most Fed voters support a loose path. The 10 - month FOMC meeting is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points. The yen's low - level volatility and geopolitical factors affect the market [8]. Market Outlook - Gold has a high premium and is in an overbought area, so short - term correction risks should be guarded. The London gold price has support at $4000 and resistance around $4150. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade between 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract between 11000 - 11600 yuan/kg. The US CPI data on Friday is crucial, and a strong CPI may lead to a greater gold price correction [8]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Market - This week, the profit - taking sentiment led to a significant correction in precious metals. As of October 24, 2025, COMEX silver was at $47.52 per ounce, down 6.14% for the week; the Shanghai silver main 2512 contract was at 11332 yuan/kg, down 7.49% for the week. COMEX gold was at $4065 per ounce, down 4.72% for the week; the Shanghai gold main 2512 contract was at 938.10 yuan/gram, down 6.17% for the week [9][11]. - As of October 23, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1052.37 tons, up 1.72% month - on - month; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15469 tons, up 0.30% month - on - month. Due to the US government shutdown, the COMEX precious metals position data has not been updated [12][16]. - As of October 23, 2025, the gold basis was - 0.28 yuan/gram, up 95.9% month - on - month; the silver basis was - 89 yuan/kg, up 45.9% month - on - month. The gold and silver inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and New York COMEX basically decreased. COMEX gold inventory was 38958914.92 ounces, down 0.48% month - on - month; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 84606 kg, up 19.62% month - on - month. COMEX silver inventory was 503832524 troy ounces, down 2.3% month - on - month; the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 920103 kg, down 21.3% month - on - month [22][30] Group 4: Silver Industry Import Situation - As of September 2025, China's silver import volume was 245749 kg, up 19.17% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore and its concentrates was 160587998 kg, down 13.19% month - on - month [36] Downstream Demand - Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production has been rising. As of August 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4.25 million pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.20% [38][42] Group 5: Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand are in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [44][48] - The silver supply - demand gap has been narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, the total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; the total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [50][52] Group 6: Gold Industry Price Changes - As of October 24, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 939.30 yuan/gram, down 3.66% month - on - month; Lao Fengxiang's gold price was 1228 yuan/gram, down 2.84% month - on - month; Chow Tai Fook's gold price was 1232 yuan/gram, down 2.38% month - on - month; Saturday's gold price was 1164 yuan/gram, down 3.32% month - on - month [54][58] Demand Changes - According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The central bank's gold - buying pace slowed down, and the high gold price led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [60] Group 7: Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility dropped significantly, and the ratio of SP500/COMEX gold price increased. The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.30%, and inflation expectations rose slightly [64][68][71] - In October 2025, the People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold reserves by about 1.87 tons, significantly more than other countries [75]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $4120 per ounce after a brief pullback and subsequent rebound, with a significant increase of 57% year-to-date, highlighting its status as one of the best-performing assets of 2025 [1] - The recent rebound in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including investor repositioning ahead of key U.S. inflation data, escalating geopolitical tensions, and expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][3] - Record inflows into gold ETFs reached $26 billion in Q3, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion, indicating strong demand from both institutional and retail investors [3] Geopolitical and Trade Factors - The U.S. government's sanctions against Russian oil companies have intensified market demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as geopolitical risks rise [5] - Ongoing U.S.-China tensions, particularly regarding technology exports and tariffs, are contributing to a sustained demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [5] - The potential for a prolonged U.S. government shutdown raises concerns about economic impacts, which could further drive investors towards gold [4] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Despite traditional headwinds such as a rising U.S. dollar index and increasing Treasury yields, gold prices managed to rebound nearly 1%, reflecting strong market expectations for Federal Reserve easing [3] - Historical data shows that gold typically rises by an average of 6% within 60 days following the start of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, providing a supportive backdrop for current gold price movements [3] - Short-term trading strategies suggest potential selling pressure below $4150, with targets set around $4060 to $3960 [8]

Group 1 - The narrative of gold becoming the ultimate safe asset is increasingly evident, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's pause on balance sheet reduction and rising global distrust in the financial system [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent monetary easing, including the first rate cut of the year, suggests significant potential for gold and silver price increases, despite a recent pullback [2] - Gold and silver are currently in a severely overbought zone, leading to increased price volatility, particularly in the silver market due to its lower liquidity compared to gold [3] Group 2 - Recent selling pressure in the gold market was influenced by silver sell-offs, but fundamental market conditions remain unchanged, indicating that central bank purchases will continue to support gold prices [4] - Despite a 2% drop in gold prices, the broader market context suggests that this should be viewed as part of a larger rebound, with increasing demand for gold ETFs indicating a steady market expansion [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The prices of gold and silver will continue to rise after the price correction stabilizes. The current correction is not a reversal, presenting a good window for buying on dips. The Fed's loose monetary policy is in the early stage, and the overseas silver spot shortage cannot be completely resolved due to structural supply - demand imbalance [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Key Shift in the Fed's Monetary Policy Stance - The Fed's monetary policy has entered a key node of dovish shift. Fed Chairman Powell said the US economic data during the government shutdown was better than expected, the downside risk in the labor market has increased, and commodity price increases are mainly due to tariff policies. He also announced that the Fed will soon end the quantitative tightening (QT) operation [4]. - A loan risk event occurred in some small US banks, which, combined with Powell's speech on suspending the balance - sheet shrinkage, provides a solid reason for the Fed to end the balance - sheet shrinkage and move towards expansion. The Fed's loose monetary policy expectations will continue to be a macro - level positive factor for precious metal prices [4]. - The selection of the new Fed Chairman is ongoing. Different candidates have different stances on monetary policy, which may affect the Fed's future policy direction and is expected to be a positive factor for precious metal prices [5]. II. Silver Faces Structural Shortage, and International Silver Prices are Supported - Driven by the increasing expectation of Fed easing, the silver price has been strong this year. From January 2 to October 17, 2025, the price of the COMEX silver main contract increased by 72.72% and reached a record high of $53.76 per ounce [9]. - The strong silver price has led institutions and individual investors at home and abroad to include silver in their investment portfolios. The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs have increased, and the physical locking of ETFs has made the London silver spot tight [11]. - Although the silver spot lease rate has declined and the COMEX silver inventory has decreased, the New York - London silver price spread has rebounded, and the COMEX12 contract holdings have increased. The shortage of overseas silver spot can only be alleviated in the short term. The strategy for precious metals still recommends a long - term view, and the reference operating ranges for the Shanghai gold and silver main contracts are given [12].

Core Viewpoint - Korean retail investors are increasingly turning to leveraged VIX (Volatility Index) bets as a strategy to hedge against risks in the U.S. stock market or to speculate on potential market corrections [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Approximately $130 million has flowed into a 2x long VIX futures ETF, making it one of the most favored U.S.-listed ETFs among Korean investors, accounting for about 20% of the global inflow into this ETF [1]. - This trend follows years of heavy investment in large tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, with many investors preparing for a potential sell-off as U.S. stock valuations approach historical highs [1][4]. - The leveraged VIX ETF has seen a 19% increase this month, although it has declined by 65% within the year [4]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Korean retail investors, known for their aggressive risk-taking, have previously made significant profits by investing in high-leverage ETFs related to companies like Tesla and Nvidia [1][5]. - The influx of funds into VIX products is seen as a reflection of the investors' enthusiasm for the U.S. market, particularly given their existing long positions in leveraged ETFs [5]. - Public discussions about VIX and leveraged products are prevalent on local social media platforms, with dedicated groups on Kakao Talk discussing these investments [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The surge in investment in volatility products tends to increase the cost of purchasing crash insurance in the VIX futures market, which is significantly smaller than the S&P 500 market [5]. - The use of leveraged securities amplifies both potential gains and losses, with the long-term holding of such products often leading to declines due to the need for constant rebalancing [4][6]. - Experts caution that the current market conditions do not suggest an imminent crash, indicating that investors in leveraged VIX products may face challenges in achieving returns [6].

Core Insights - Korean retail investors, known for their aggressive trading, are increasingly turning to complex leveraged VIX products amid growing concerns over a valuation bubble in the U.S. stock market [1] - The 2x long VIX futures ETF has attracted approximately $130 million in inflows from Korean investors this year, accounting for about 20% of the global inflows into this ETF [1] - The trend is driven by dual motivations: some investors are hedging their substantial long positions in U.S. stocks, while others are speculating on a market correction [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - The 2x long VIX futures ETF has become one of the most favored U.S.-listed ETFs among Korean investors, ranking seventh in purchase volume in July [1] - Analysts warn that these leveraged volatility products are designed for short-term trading and can lead to significant losses if held long-term [1][2] Group 2: Risks and Misunderstandings - The risks associated with leveraged VIX products are significantly higher than those of ordinary leveraged securities, and many Korean retail investors may not fully understand these risks [2] - These products require continuous rebalancing through futures positions, which can lead to losses even during short-term price increases [2] Group 3: Retail Investor Behavior - Korean retail investors, referred to as "ants," are drawn to overseas leveraged or inverse securities due to the lack of trading restrictions compared to local derivatives [3] - Popular chat groups on Kakao Talk discuss VIX and leveraged products, indicating a community-driven approach to trading [3] - Some retail investors remain committed to their positions despite losses, reflecting a strong belief in potential market recovery [3]

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve has signaled a dovish stance, with Chairman Powell indicating a likely end to balance sheet reduction in the coming months, and a potential for two rate cuts by the end of the year [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its growth forecasts for the US economy to 2.0% and 2.1% for this year and next, respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.9% and 2.0% [1] - Technical analysis shows a strong upward movement in gold prices, with a focus on the support level around $4,175 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are expected to provide some support for oil prices [3] - However, the oil market faces significant pressure from supply-side factors, with US production rising to 13.62 million barrels per day and Saudi Arabia reaching a new production high [4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of a more severe oversupply situation than previously anticipated, influenced by trade tensions between major economies [4] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend for oil prices, with resistance at $60 and support at $57 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market is currently experiencing a period of adjustment after a previous price surge, with potential for further upward movement if it stabilizes above the 20-day moving average [6] - The focus is on the support level around $4.85 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has tested the 62-day moving average for support and is showing signs of a bullish trend [6] - Attention is on the support level around 47,228 [6]

Core Insights - A mysterious trader on the Hyperliquid platform, known for accurately predicting market crashes, has opened a new leveraged short position worth over $160 million, betting on a decline in Bitcoin prices [1][4][6] - The trader's recent actions have raised concerns in the cryptocurrency market, with speculation that they may possess information not available to the average investor [1][3][6] Group 1: Trader's Actions - On October 12, the trader established a $16 million short position with 10x leverage when Bitcoin was priced at $117,370, setting a liquidation price at $123,500, below Bitcoin's previous all-time high of $126,080 [2][8] - The trader's previous short position reportedly earned them over $192 million, leading to skepticism about the timing of their new trades [3][8] Group 2: Market Reactions - Binance founder Zhao Changpeng expressed concern over the legitimacy of the trader's actions, calling for verification of the claims surrounding the trades [1][6] - The market experienced a significant crash, with $19.1 billion in leveraged positions liquidated and over 1.66 million traders suffering losses, while the mysterious trader profited significantly [8][9] Group 3: Speculation and Analysis - Analysts have speculated about the identity of the trader, with some linking the account to Garrett Jin, former CEO of the now-closed BitForex exchange, although this connection has been disputed [6][7] - The precision of the trader's timing, executing a short order just one minute before a major announcement from Trump regarding new tariffs, has led to discussions about insider trading and market fairness [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals has seen significant fluctuations, particularly in nickel futures, which have experienced a notable increase amid mixed supply and demand dynamics in the industry [1] Macro Perspective - The Federal Reserve's minutes indicate that most officials believe continued easing may be appropriate this year, while a minority initially supported not lowering interest rates in September [1] Industry Analysis - According to Zhonghui Futures, the political situation in Indonesia has limited impact on nickel ore supply, with a notable divergence in the domestic nickel industry chain. There is significant oversupply pressure in refined nickel, while the supply of nickel sulfate remains relatively tight [1] - The latest domestic pure nickel social inventory is approximately 40,800 tons, showing a slight decrease month-on-month, but long-term supply pressures persist [1] Demand Dynamics - Southwest Futures notes that stainless steel is entering its traditional consumption peak, with increased production; however, demand remains constrained due to weak real estate consumption and sluggish nickel-iron transactions, leading to strong price-cutting psychology among steel mills [1] Market Outlook - Nanhua Futures suggests that during the National Day holiday, external nickel prices remained strong, primarily due to uncertainties surrounding Indonesian policies that have increased risk premiums. Expectations for tighter upstream nickel ore shipments and ongoing instability in long-term quotas continue to support the bottom price levels [1] - Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, with nickel sulfate prices under pressure. The demand for stainless steel is expected to enter an adjustment period after reaching seasonal peaks. It is anticipated that domestic prices will follow external trends with slight upward movements post-holiday, but sustained upward momentum is limited, likely resulting in a fluctuating strong pattern [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View - The zinc market has support, with specific data showing various changes in zinc-related indicators [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 21,825 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous day; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic trading was 3,042 dollars/ton, up 1.25%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 162,377 lots, a decrease of 18,168 lots; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 13,813 lots, an increase of 4,405 lots. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 127,778 lots, a decrease of 14,622 lots; the open interest of LME Zinc was 224,342 lots, an increase of 1,685 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME CASH - 3M premium was 67.56 dollars/ton, up 17.56 dollars. The premium of Guangdong 0 zinc was -50 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged. The premium of Tianjin 0 zinc was -40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -3,178.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167.49 yuan [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc's futures inventory was 57,221 tons, a decrease of 2,043 tons; LME Zinc inventory was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 1,150 tons. The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 10,325 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; the LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 10,645 tons, a decrease of 204 tons [1] - **Related Product Prices**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil including tax was 4,250 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,005 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 22,455 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [1] News - The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that most officials said it might be appropriate to continue with loose policies this year, while a few might have supported not cutting interest rates in September. There are differences among Fed officials on the magnitude of interest rate cuts, and the government shutdown has led to delays in the release of multiple economic data, making it more difficult for Fed officials to assess the economic outlook [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2][3]