Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut in 2025 and the second consecutive cut since September this year [1][2] - The decision reflects a cautious approach after eight months of maintaining rates to assess the impact of tariffs and policy adjustments on the economy [1] - The Fed's statement highlighted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [1][2] Economic Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) noted high uncertainty in the economic outlook and acknowledged rising downside risks to employment in recent months [2] - The FOMC reiterated its commitment to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to the 2% target, leading to the decision to lower the federal funds rate [2] Future Policy Considerations - The FOMC will carefully evaluate the latest data, changes in economic outlook, and risk balance when considering further adjustments to the target range [3] - The committee plans to end the reduction of its overall securities holdings on December 1, with reinvestment of mortgage-backed securities' principal into short-term Treasury bonds [3] - The FOMC's assessments will consider a wide range of information, including labor market conditions, inflation pressures, and developments in financial and international situations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve faces unprecedented challenges in formulating monetary policy due to a "data vacuum" caused by the U.S. government shutdown, which has halted the release of critical economic data [1][3][11]. Economic Data Impact - The government shutdown has led to a complete halt in data collection and publication by key departments, including the Labor Statistics Bureau and the Commerce Department, affecting important metrics like non-farm employment and retail sales [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs highlights that prolonged shutdowns can damage data quality, as seen in the 2013 shutdown when only 75% of regular price samples for CPI were collected [3]. Inflation and Employment Signals - Recent economic indicators show a consistent signal of policy direction, with the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, and core CPI also underperforming expectations [4][5]. - The ADP employment report indicates a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected increase of 51,000, marking the largest decline since March 2023 [5]. Federal Reserve's Policy Balancing - Fed Chair Powell emphasizes the difficulty of balancing the need to combat inflation while addressing employment market risks, especially in the context of missing key economic data [7][9]. - Powell signals a potential end to the balance sheet reduction policy, which has seen the Fed's assets decrease from approximately $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion since mid-2022 [7]. Divergence in Policy Perspectives - There is a growing divide within the Federal Reserve regarding the pace and extent of potential rate cuts, with some officials advocating for aggressive cuts due to employment market concerns, while others caution against inflation risks [9][10]. - The internal disagreement is exacerbated by the lack of recent official economic data, leading officials to rely on their interpretations of limited information [10]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The market has priced in strong expectations for rate cuts, with a 99.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October, reflecting concerns over economic growth and inflation dynamics [11][12]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped below 4% for the first time since last September, indicating market apprehension about economic slowdown and the anticipated rate cuts [12][14]. - The dollar index remains under pressure due to rate cut expectations, while geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties provide some support, leading to a mixed outlook for the dollar [16].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% and will stop balance sheet reduction on December 1, gradually replacing MBS with short-term government bonds [2] - There is a division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the interest rate cut, with some advocating for a 50 basis points cut while others oppose any reduction [2] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in August, indicating a shift towards an oversupply of labor [3][6] Group 2 - Inflation lacks sustained upward momentum, with the core CPI falling by 0.1 percentage points to 3% in September, suggesting that tariff costs are taking time to be passed on to consumers [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's assessment of employment and inflation is based on available data due to the lack of recent economic data caused by the government shutdown [5] - Economic growth is described as expanding at a moderate pace, although consumer spending has weakened, particularly in retail [8] Group 3 - The outlook for the U.S. economy remains cautious, with the Beige Book indicating a decline in consumer spending and a preference for discounts among lower-income groups [8] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in December has decreased significantly, reflecting uncertainty in the labor market and inflation dynamics [9] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making may be delayed due to the absence of economic data, which complicates the assessment of labor market risks [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds target rate range to 3.75%-4% for the second consecutive time, but there is significant uncertainty regarding a potential rate cut in December, as indicated by Chairman Powell's remarks [1] - The decision to cut rates was made with a 10-2 vote, with two officials dissenting; one advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points and the other opposing any cut [1] - The Fed's statement did not provide forward guidance for December's policy path, and Powell noted strong divisions among policymakers regarding further rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - The rate cut occurred amid a lack of official economic data due to a government shutdown, with key indicators like non-farm payrolls and retail sales not being updated [2] - The Fed's description of the economy was adjusted, indicating moderate expansion, a cooling labor market, and rising inflation, with the CPI at 3% [2] - The Fed announced the end of its balance sheet reduction (QT), which had decreased its assets from nearly $9 trillion to about $6.6 trillion, citing concerns over financial conditions tightening [2] Group 3 - Historically, the Fed rarely eases monetary policy during economic expansions and stock market highs, but current market conditions driven by AI technology and strong earnings may lead to continued stock market gains despite potential inflationary pressures [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% - 4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year [1] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low as of August [1] - The Federal Reserve is committed to supporting maximum employment and restoring inflation to the 2% target [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, below the market expectation of 3.1% [2] - The core CPI also rose by 3% year-over-year, matching the previous value but below market expectations [2] - The ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, the largest decline since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000 jobs [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve plans to complete its total securities holdings reduction by December 1, after which the principal repayments from mortgage-backed securities will be reinvested in short-term Treasury bonds [3] - A majority of the Federal Open Market Committee members voted in favor of the 25 basis point rate cut, while two members had differing opinions on the extent of the cut [3] Group 4 - The last Federal Reserve meeting of the year is scheduled for December 9-10 [4]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The decline in inflation data paves the way for an interest rate cut in October, but signals of broader policy easing are more noteworthy[2] - The ongoing government shutdown has amplified short-term employment market disruptions and economic downward pressure, which may influence Powell's judgment on future rate cuts[3] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has shrunk from a peak of $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion, with bank reserves dropping below $3 trillion, indicating accumulating liquidity pressure[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Private sector employment data suggests a softening labor market, despite the lack of official data support, indicating a potential risk for the job market[3] - The current government shutdown has lasted for one month, nearing historical highs, which could increasingly burden the real economy and disrupt employment data[4] - The Treasury's increased bond issuance since the debt ceiling was lifted has led to market liquidity tightening, with the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON-RRP) balance nearing depletion[4] Group 3: Market Implications - If the Fed signals an end to balance sheet reduction, it could create a "dual easing" effect alongside the October rate cut, potentially boosting valuations of interest-sensitive assets like tech stocks and gold[6] - The upcoming meeting is not only expected to confirm a rate cut but also to act as a turning point for liquidity, providing further support to capital markets[6] - Risks include significant changes in U.S. trade policies and unexpected tariff expansions that could lead to a global economic slowdown and increased market volatility[6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce the end of its balance sheet reduction (QT) during the upcoming meeting, which has led to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4.0% for the first time in a year [2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Changes - Since March 2020, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded from $4.31 trillion to nearly $9 trillion by April 2022, effectively doubling in size [4]. - The Fed initiated asset purchases in March 2020, announcing a $500 billion increase in Treasury securities [4]. - In December 2020, the Fed committed to purchasing at least $800 billion in Treasury securities and $400 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) monthly [5]. - The tapering of asset purchases began in July 2021, with a gradual reduction in the pace of buying [5]. - The balance sheet reduction started in June 2022, with monthly reductions of $30 billion in Treasuries and $17.5 billion in MBS, increasing to $60 billion and $35 billion respectively by September 2022 [5]. - By March 2025, the reduction pace for Treasuries is expected to slow to $5 billion per month [5]. Reasons for Ending QT - The need to avoid increased market financing costs and tightening liquidity in the overnight money market [7]. - Core inflation has been affected by tariffs and wages, and aggressive rate cuts could exacerbate inflation [7]. - To prevent long-term Treasury yields from rising due to a new round of fiscal expansion [7]. - The U.S. housing market is closely linked to MBS and long-term rates, necessitating a careful approach to avoid destabilizing the housing market [7]. Market Impact of Ending QT - Gold prices are likely to rise due to improved liquidity, alongside declining real interest rates and a weaker dollar [8]. - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to trend downward in the medium to long term, influenced by rate cut expectations [8]. - Overall, the end of QT could support equity valuations due to improved liquidity and lower yield expectations, although it may also lead to increased volatility if interpreted as a reactive policy change [8].

Economic Indicators - The delayed September CPI data from the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 3% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[10] - Core CPI rose by 3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both lower than market expectations, indicating easing inflation pressures[10] - The owner’s equivalent rent (OER) increased by only 0.13%, the lowest level since 2020, suggesting a continued decline in housing inflation[10] Market Trends - The SOFR and IORB spread has turned positive, leading some market participants to believe the Fed may halt balance sheet reduction by the end of October[3] - The U.S. housing market remains weak, with existing home sales slightly rising to 4.06 million units, still at a low level, indicating weak supply and demand dynamics[10][21] - Market pricing indicates there are still two expected rate cuts by the end of the year, with a 96.7% probability for the next meeting[25] Risks - Ongoing trade tensions could elevate commodity inflation, potentially limiting the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy[4][26] - If housing inflation cools more slowly than anticipated, it may also constrain the Fed's easing options[26]

来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 美联储10月降息25个基点的概率为97.3% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储10月降息25个基点的概率为97.3%，维持利率不变的概率为2.7%。美联储 12月累计降息50个基点的概率为95.3%。 Wrightson：美联储本周或将结束缩表 研究机构Wrightson的分析师预测，美联储本周可能准备宣布结束资产负债表缩减。近期隔夜拆借市场 的动向显示，融资条件已趋紧，准备金已降至接近被认为是均衡的水平。Wrightson团队表示，美联储 本周采取行动将是一个谨慎的举措，以避免对资金市场造成过大压力。他们指出："即便美联储认为准 备金供应仍然相当充足，我们也怀疑FOMC是否会忽视最近几周联邦基金利率中反复出现的警告信 号。" 10月28日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0856，上调25点。升值至2024年10月15日以来最高。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that September inflation figures fell below expectations, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.3% month-over-month, lower than both August's increase and market expectations of 0.4% [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The September CPI increased by 0.3%, which is lower than the 0.4% increase expected by the market and the previous month's increase [1] - The slight recovery in CPI data raises questions about the market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting remains high at over 95% [1] - Despite the high probability of a rate cut, the Federal Reserve has not yet halted its balance sheet reduction plan, indicating that it has not fully entered a loose monetary policy phase and is maintaining a neutral to hawkish stance [1] - Some Federal Reserve officials have suggested that they may consider stopping the balance sheet reduction as key economic data shows signs of weakness [1]