期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 2025/6/26 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.37 | 0.11 | DR007 | 1.69 | 2.52 | | | GC001 | 1.81 | 21.00 | GC007 | 1.97 | 7.00 | | 化 贝 | SHBOR 3M | 1.63 | 0.10 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | H | 1年期国债 | 1.37 | 0.28 | 5年期国债 | 1.52 | 0.03 | | 市 | 10年期国债 | 1.65 | 0.40 | 10年期美债 | 4.30 | -4.00 | | 场 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了3653亿元7天期逆回购操作,当日1563亿元逆回购 | | | | | | | 与 | 到期,据此计算,单日净投放2090亿元。 热评:本周央行公开市场有9603亿元 ...

热评:本周央行公开市场有9603亿元逆回购到期,其中周二至周五分别到 期1973亿元、1563亿元、2035亿元、1612亿元。一年来,央行坚持支持性 的货币政策立场,从数量、价格、结构等方面,出台了多项货币政策措 施,有效支持了经济持续回升向好和金融市场的稳定。同时,央行完善货 币政策框架,优化货币政策中间变量,培育政策利率,提升货币政策传导 效率,丰富货币政策工具箱,做好政策沟通和预期引导。货币政策框架的 转型是一个渐进、持续的过程,未来央行还将不断地做好评估和完善。 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 (%) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 我則一日受 动(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3858 | 0.29 | IF当月 | 3823 | 0.5 | | 上证50 | 2685 | 0.41 | IH当月 | 2654 | 0.7 | | 中证500 | 5674 | 0.61 | IC当月 | 5626 | 0.7 | | 中证1000 | 6078 | 1.31 | IM当月 | 6001 | 1.1 | | IF成交量 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Overseas data shows the cooling of the US economy, but it's not enough to change the Fed's stance. The Middle - East geopolitical instability has raised market risk - aversion. Domestic A - shares are in a state of stock game, with expectations of index repair and attention to policies from the Lujiazui Financial Forum and foreign capital inflows [1][2][11] Summary by Directory 1.行情观点 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US May retail sales monthly rate was - 0.9%, lower than expected and the previous value, the largest decline since March 2023, mainly due to the drop in car purchases. The May industrial output monthly rate was - 0.2%, also lower than expected and the previous value. The Fed is more concerned about labor - market data and is delaying interest - rate cuts due to internal contradictions. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields increased, gold slightly rose, crude oil rose, US stock indexes fell, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, with the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciating. Middle - East geopolitical fluctuations increased market risk - aversion [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.36%. The market showed a volatile correction. Although the index decline was limited, individual - stock declines widened. The market was mainly affected by news and in a state of stock game with sector rotation. Coal, public utilities, etc. rose, while pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, etc. fell. The Lujiazui Forum is being held, and policy news is to be focused on [2][5] 1.3 Important News - The US Senate passed a stablecoin bill. Trump mentioned upcoming drug tariffs. 95% of central banks expect gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months. The "Fed whisperer" said the Fed would have been ready to cut interest rates this week without tariff risks. There are ongoing developments in the Israel - Iran conflict, and China announced evacuating citizens from Iran and Israel. China's new - generation manned spacecraft had a successful test [6][7][9] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Pay attention to whether the US will directly attack Iran and the intensification of great - power games. Domestic A - shares are in a stock game. With the expectation of policies from the Lujiazui Financial Forum, the index is expected to repair. Focus on policy news' impact on index trading volume and foreign capital inflows when gold prices are high [11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The document presents the performance, trading volume, and positions of futures contracts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, including data such as closing prices, settlement prices, trading volume changes, and position changes [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - It shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and valuation of major stock indexes and sectors. Market - style contributions to the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes are also presented, along with charts on market trading volume, turnover rate, and other indicators [36][37][38] 4. Liquidity Tracking - Charts on central - bank open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels are provided [53]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2 - Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is interval oscillation, the medium - term view is going up, and the intraday view is oscillating strongly. The policy - side positive expectations form strong support, but there are uncertainties from external factors such as the evolution after the end of the Sino - US tariff war suspension period and the Middle East geopolitical crisis [1][5] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is oscillating strongly, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is oscillating strongly, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is that the latest May credit data shows weak real - economy financing demand, so policy - side support is expected. The positive policy expectations strengthen the bottom support of the stock index. Also, there are high uncertainties from external factors, and the stock market risk preference is defensive. In the short term, the stock index will mainly oscillate in an interval, waiting for new driving forces [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Today's news was relatively quiet, with stock indices fluctuating within a narrow range and the dividend index leading the gains. Market sentiment was cautious. The domestic economic fundamentals were in a weak recovery state, while there were still uncertainties overseas and the external situation was volatile. Under the influence of both domestic and international factors, the stock indices lacked strong drivers, resulting in a strong wait - and - see sentiment and low trading activity in the market. The upcoming Lujiazui Forum tomorrow morning will release several financial policies. If there are policies exceeding expectations, it is expected to drive the stock indices to enter a phase - up trend [4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices fluctuated weakly. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 0.09%. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 7.863 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IC declined on heavy volume, IH rose on light volume, and IM rose on heavy volume [2]. Important Information - The two - day 2025 Lujiazui Forum will open tomorrow morning with the theme of "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation and High - quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". - The Bank of Japan kept the policy benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, in line with market expectations, and remained on hold for the third consecutive meeting [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.01 | 0.10 | -0.20 | 0.02 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.563 | 5.0679 | 8.6313 | 17.9958 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | -0.6555 | 0.2873 | -0.011 | 0.713 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 23.7778 | 8.2576 | 21.8236 | 32.9756 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.1165 | -0.0433 | 0.0333 | 0.5515 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.04 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.12 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.77 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1207.213 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | -78.63 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View No clear core view is presented in the given content. It mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: On June 13, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of major economies varied. For example, the US was 4.401%, and the UK was 4.549%. Changes in yields were also provided for the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods. For instance, the one - year change in the US was 0.074%, while in Italy it was - 0.384% [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The 2 - year Treasury yields of major economies such as the US, UK, and Germany were presented. On June 13, 2025, the US 2 - year yield was 3.940%. Similar to the 10 - year yields, changes for different time periods were given [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies were shown. On June 13, 2025, the exchange rate against the Brazilian real was 5.544, with the latest change being 0.11%. Changes for the latest, one - week, one - month, and one - year periods were provided [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The performance of major economies' stock indices was reported. On June 13, 2025, the Dow Jones was 5976.970, with a latest change of - 1.13%. Changes for different time periods were also included [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The performance of credit bond indices, including emerging economies' investment - grade and high - yield, and US and euro - zone investment - grade and high - yield, was presented. The latest changes, one - week, one - month, and one - year changes were given [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3377.00, with a change of - 0.75% [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) and its环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were reported. For instance, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 12.72, with a环比 change of - 0.06 [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX were given. The risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.46, with a环比 change of 0.01 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 were presented. The latest value of A - shares' fund flow was - 1393.57 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized board, and ChiNext were reported. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 14671.97 [4]. - **Main Contract Premiums/Discounts**: The basis and percentage changes of IF, IH, and IC were provided. The basis of IF was - 7.78, with a change of - 0.20% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and percentage changes of Treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were presented. The closing price of T00 was 108.825, with a change of 0.02% [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The funding rates R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes (BP) were given. The R001 rate was 1.4620%, with a daily change of - 12.00 BP [5].

股 指 行 情 綜 述 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/6/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 较前值变动 | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.37 | 0.47 | DR007 | 1.54 | 1.10 | | हूं | GC001 | 1.49 | -4.50 | GC007 | 1.57 | -1.00 | | ਜ | SHBOR 3M | 1.64 | -0.30 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | -10.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.41 | 0.00 | 5年期国债 | 1.51 | 0.50 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.65 | 0.30 | 10年期美债 | 4.41 | -6.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了1 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "大类资产早报" - Report Date: June 13, 2025 - Author: Research Center Macro Team 1. Global Asset Market Performance 1.1 Main Economies' 10 - Year Treasury Yields - On June 12, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.361%, 4.475%, 3.180% respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.061 (US) to 0.002 (China). One - year changes varied, with the UK up 0.255 and Italy down 0.475 [3]. 1.2 Main Economies' 2 - Year Treasury Yields - On June 12, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 4.010%, 3.861%, 1.810% respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.046 (UK) to 0.072 (South Korea). One - year changes also showed differences, like the US down 0.910 and Japan up 0.349 [3]. 1.3 US Dollar to Main Emerging Economies' Currency Exchange Rates - On June 12, 2025, the exchange rate against the Brazilian real was 5.537. Latest changes were from -0.93% (South Korean won) to 0.26% (South African rand). One - year changes showed the Brazilian real up 5.56% and the South African rand down 3.99% [3]. 1.4 Main Economies' Stock Indexes - On June 12, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6045.260. Latest changes were from -0.74% (German DAX) to 0.38% (S&P 500). One - year changes were significant, such as the German DAX up 27.75% and the French CAC down 2.91% [3]. 1.5 Credit Bond Indexes - On June 12, 2025, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3392.930. Latest changes were from -0.02% (Eurozone high - yield credit bond index) to 0.43% (US investment - grade credit bond index). One - year changes were positive across the board, with the emerging economies' high - yield credit bond index up 13.14% [3][4]. 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 2.1 Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. were 3402.66, 3892.20 respectively. The daily percentage changes were from -0.06% (CSI 300) to 0.26% (ChiNext) [5]. 2.2 Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 12.78, 10.90 respectively. The环比 changes were from -0.15% (German DAX) to 0.03% (CSI 500) [5]. 2.3 Risk Premium - The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of the S&P 500 was -0.47, with a环比 change of 0.05%. The German DAX was 2.44, with a环比 change of 0.09% [5]. 2.4 Fund Flows - The latest values of A - shares, the main board, etc. were -433.46, -411.02 respectively. The 5 - day average values also showed different trends [5]. 2.5 Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 12717.69 billion, 2602.40 billion respectively. The环比 changes were from 16.02 (Small and Medium - sized Board) to 180.87 (ChiNext) [5]. 2.6 Main Contract Premium or Discount - The basis of IF, IH, IC were -8.60, -9.08, -19.93 respectively. The percentage changes were -0.22%, -0.34%, -0.34% respectively [5]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc. were 108.850, 105.880 respectively. The daily percentage changes were from -0.03% (TF00) to 0.05% (T01) [6]. - The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4348%, 1.5820%, 1.6390% respectively. The daily changes in basis points were from -13.00 (R001) to 0.00 (SHIBOR - 3M) [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No clear core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields vary across different economies. For example, on 2025/06/06, the US was at 4.508, with a latest change of 0.115, a one - year change of - 0.043. Some yields have increased recently, while others have decreased [2]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Similar to 10 - year yields, there are differences among economies. The US 2 - year yield on 2025/06/06 was 3.870, with a latest change of - 0.090 and a one - year change of - 1.060 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies show different trends. For instance, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.560 on 2025/06/06, with a latest change of - 0.50% and a one - year change of 7.74% [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Stock indices also have diverse performances. The S&P 500 on 2025/06/06 was 6000.360, with a latest change of 1.03% and a one - year change of 13.09% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different types of credit bond indices (investment - grade and high - yield) in different regions (US, eurozone, emerging economies) have various changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of - 0.49% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: A - share closed at 3385.36 with a 0.04% change. Different indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., have different closing prices and percentage changes [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values for different indices are provided, such as 12.56 for the CSI 300, with corresponding环比 changes [3]. - **Risk Premium**: Risk premium data (1/PE - 10 rate) and their环比 changes are given for multiple indices [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows for different segments of the A - share market are presented. For example, the latest value of A - share fund flow was - 518.24 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and different indices are provided, along with环比 changes [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data for index futures like IF, IH, and IC are given [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The closing prices and percentage changes of treasury bond futures (T00, TF00, T01, TF01) are shown. For example, T00 closed at 108.710 with a 0.03% change [4]. - **Funding Rates**: Funding rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) and their daily changes are provided [4].

FICC日报 | 2025-06-04 股指低开高走，金融板块表现强势 市场分析 特朗普提高关税。国内方面，美方称中方违反日内瓦会谈共识，对此，外交部发言人林剑表示，商务部发言人此 前已就此阐明中方严正立场。日内瓦共识是中美双方在相互尊重、平等协商的原则下达成的。美方在毫无事实根 据的情况下，对中方抹黑指责，出台对华芯片出口管制、暂停对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证 等极端打压措施，严重破坏日内瓦共识，也损害了中方正当权益。中方对此坚决反对，已提出严正交涉。林剑强 调，施压和胁迫不是同中方打交道的正确方式。我们督促美方尊重事实，停止散布虚假信息，纠正有关错误做法， 以实际行动维护双方达成的共识。海外方面，特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%提高至50%， 该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美国从英国进口的钢铝关税仍将维持在25%。 股指上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数低开高走，上证指数涨0.43%收于33631.98点，创业板指涨0.48%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，美容护理、纺织服饰、银行行业领涨，家用电器、钢铁、煤炭行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市 成交 ...