格隆汇12月20日｜Clocktower首席策略师王凯文指出，当前美股呈现典型的经济周期末期特征：强劲的 企业盈利增长持续推动股价创新高，但市场远期估值已停止扩张。他认为，一旦市场对货币政策的预期 转向紧缩（利率上行），估值将面临压缩压力。基于此，他判断美股牛市或已进入"最后一程"，上半年 仍可能由盈利主导上涨，但下半年风险显著增大。 ...

短期内，金银在触及阶段高位后出现技术性整理，属于上涨过程中的正常现象。随着关键经济数据陆续 公布，市场对未来利率路径的判断仍将反复修正，价格波动或有所加大。 对于后市，尽管白银相对黄金的估值已处于偏高区间，短线不排除出现轮动或回调，但在经济不确定性 尚未消散的环境下，贵金属作为对冲工具和资产多元化选择的核心地位依然稳固。综合来看， Mhmarkets迈汇认为，在货币政策预期、实物需求与资金流向多重因素支撑下，贵金属板块仍具备中长 期配置价值，本年度行情有望延续强势表现。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 12月16日，2025年以来，贵金属市场延续强势格局，白银表现尤为突出。Mhmarkets迈汇表示，制造业 数据不及预期令市场重新押注货币环境趋于宽松，美元承压之下，资金加速流入贵金属板块，成为本轮 行情的重要背景。 从价格结构来看，白银大幅跑赢黄金，金银比快速回落至历史相对低位区间。Mhmarkets迈汇认为，这 一变化反映出市场风险偏好阶段性抬升，资金更倾向于选择弹性更大的品种，以捕捉降息预期下的超额 收益。 制造业活动走弱被视为本轮上涨的直接催化剂。相关数据大幅低于市场预期，强化了对未来利率下行的 ...

12月5日，近期贵金属市场呈现出温和分化的走势，黄金小幅上涨而白银略有回落。NCE平台认为，这 种分化体现了市场参与者在不同品种上的操作偏好与风险管理策略。黄金的温和上涨主要受到技术性买 盘推动，多头试图在关键支撑位附近建立仓位，而白银的回落则反映出短线获利了结的需求，同时也是 长期上升趋势中的正常调整。NCE平台表示，当前市场情绪整体偏稳，投资者对于贵金属的多空观点各 有侧重，短期波动性仍然存在。 力。然而，NCE平台认为，这种压力并未改变整体货币政策预期，美联储下周可能继续执行适度降息的 计划，为贵金属提供潜在的支撑。与此同时，美元指数保持稳定，国际原油价格小幅上行，而10年期美 债收益率仍处于相对高位，这些外部因素共同影响着贵金属的短期波动。 从市场结构来看，黄金和白银的价格形成机制各具特点。现货市场提供即时交割价格，而期货市场则决 定未来交割的预期价格。NCE平台认为，年底临近，交易活跃度和流动性变化对期货市场尤为关键，目 前12月黄金期货成为最受关注的交易品种。技术分析显示，黄金多头若能够突破历史高位，将进一步确 认上行趋势，而空头在关键支撑位附近仍存在一定防守压力。这表明市场短期内可能以震荡上行为 ...

从数据面来看，周三公布的美国ADP就业报告与ISM服务业PMI将率先对汇价产生短线扰动，而市场关 注度最高的则是周五出炉的PCE物价指数。作为美联储制定货币政策时最核心的通胀参考指标，此次 PCE数据的表现将直接影响市场对美联储降息幅度及后续节奏的判断，进而为USD/JPY的中期走势定下 基调。 技术面视角下，USD/JPY日线图显示，汇价在触及前期阻力位后再度承压，连续多个交易日受制于短期 均线，上方抛压迹象明显。当前K线呈现高位钝化特征，MACD指标动能柱持续缩减，显示汇价上行动 力正在不断衰减；同时RSI指标已从超买区域回落，进一步印证多头力量趋于放缓的市场特征。 周三交易时段，美元兑日元试图延续前一日的反弹势头，但未能在高位企稳，随后回落至关键区域附近 窄幅整理。尽管汇价出现回调，但市场并未涌现明显的跟进抛售盘，这一现象充分反映出在多项关键经 济数据公布前，投资者普遍持谨慎观望态度。 当前汇市的核心驱动逻辑源于双边货币政策预期的显著分化：日本央行潜在政策调整预期持续为日元提 供上行动力，而市场对美联储下周启动降息的押注则不断压制美元走势。双重因素交织下，USD/JPY在 关键区域附近维持震荡整理态势， ...

周一（12月1日）亚洲时段，现货黄金继续保持涨势，一度刷新高点至4230.41美元/盎司。这种连续上 涨的格局并非偶然，而是受到了宏观经济环境和货币政策预期的双重支撑。投资者们将黄金视为对抗不 确定性的盾牌，尤其是在经济增速放缓的预期下，黄金的不孳息特性变得格外吸引人。周一的11月ISM 制造业PMI、周三的ISM服务业PMI、周四的周度失业救济申请，以及周五的10月核心PCE和密歇根大 学12月初步消费者信心调查，都将成为焦点。这些数据如果继续显示经济弱势，将进一步巩固降息预 期，推动金价向上突破。美元疲软走势放大黄金的吸引力与黄金上涨相呼应的是美元的持续走弱。上周 美元指数下跌0.69%，创下7月21日以来最大单周跌幅。这种势头直接源于市场对美联储降息的押注， 因为降息通常会削弱美元的吸引力。 地缘政治局势增添金价的不确定变量除了宏观经济因素，地缘政治风险也为黄金市场注入了额外的不确 定性。短期内，美乌代表团围绕俄乌"和平计划"展开的新一轮会谈备受关注。这次会谈于11月30日在美 国佛罗里达州举行，美方包括国务卿鲁比奥、中东问题特使威特科夫和总统特朗普的女婿库什纳，乌方 则由国家安全与国防委员会秘书乌梅罗 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of further loose monetary policy is not strong, and the bond market lacks short - term drivers [2]. - The money market was tight at the beginning of last week and then loosened. The weighted money interest rate increased marginally. Next week, there will be a large maturity of reverse repurchase in the open market, 90 billion yuan of MLF will mature, and government bond payments may reach 20 - 30 billion yuan. The central bank is likely to increase reverse repurchase and renew MLF in time, but the money interest rate may fluctuate at the end of the month [5]. - Overseas, the trading of the US interest - rate cut expectation has changed. The expectation of a December interest - rate cut has declined. After adjustment, there may still be trading opportunities [5]. - The bond market adjusted last week, especially the 30 - year variety. The short - term bond market is in a box - shock stage. The driving factors that may break the shock in the future include the implementation of the redemption fee new rule, the announcement of the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the month, and the release of November economic data. Unilateral strategies suggest range operation, and short - position investors can speed up the position - shifting pace next week [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract 2512 changed - 0.51% to 115.57, the 10 - year main contract 2512 changed 0.01% to 108.43, the 5 - year 2512 changed - 0.02% to 105.86, and the 2 - year 2512 changed 0.01% to 102.46 [19]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Last week, the trading volume of each variety significantly recovered, and the progress of position - shifting and contract - changing accelerated. The open interest of each variety decreased. For example, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had 176,275 open interests, a change of - 3026 hands compared with last week [26]. - **Basis and Implied Spread**: As of November 21, the basis of TL2512, T2512, TF2512, and TS2512 were 0.14, 0.08, 0.02, 0.00 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0, - 0.03, 0.01, 0 compared with last week. The implied spreads were 0.33BP, 0.27BP, 0.89BP, 0.09BP respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.1BP, - 0.25BP, 0.58BP, 0.12BP compared with last week [30]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of TL, T, TF, TS contracts 2512 - 2603 were 0.2, 0.19, - 0.05, 0.05 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 0.03, - 0.04, - 0.05, - 0.01 compared with last week. The inter - period spreads are expected to narrow, and it is recommended that long - position investors shift positions earlier and short - position investors later [34]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The inter - period spreads of varieties within 10 years mostly narrowed last week, while the spreads between the 30 - year variety and the short - end widened, showing a differentiated feature [48]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Fundamental Tracking - **October PMI**: Slightly lower than expected. The manufacturing PMI was 49.0, a decrease of 0.8 points month - on - month. The decline was slightly larger than the seasonal average. The construction industry PMI fell 0.2 percentage points to 49.1%, but the new order and business activity expectation indexes rebounded. The service industry PMI rose 0.1 percentage points to 50.2% [52][60][64]. - **October Inflation Data**: Continued to improve, slightly higher than expected. CPI turned positive year - on - year, rising 0.5 percentage points to 0.2%. PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2% [72]. - **October Financial Data**: Weaker than expected. The new social financing scale was 81.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 59.7 billion yuan. The new loan scale was - 2.01 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 31.66 billion yuan [78]. - **October Export**: The year - on - year growth was - 1.1%, lower than the cumulative year - on - year of the first three quarters (6.1%) and the third - quarter year - on - year (6.6%). Exports to most regions slowed down, and the export of labor - intensive consumer goods declined [79][83]. - **October Industrial Added Value**: Declined. The month - on - month seasonally adjusted was 0.17%, significantly lower than the previous value of 0.65%. The production of some products decreased, and the reasons may include the transfer of export decline, the limited impact of policy - based financial instruments on construction products, and the negative impact of "anti - involution" on new energy products [90][96]. - **October Consumption**: Most categories improved, but the growth rate of high - base durable goods declined. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles increased 4.0% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 3.2% [99]. - **October Fixed - Asset Investment**: Remained weak. The decline expanded, with the cumulative year - on - year changing from - 0.5% to - 1.7%, and the corresponding month - on - year was - 11.2% [111]. - **Consumption High - frequency Data**: Real - estate sales declined year - on - year, and automobile sales growth slowed down. Metro passenger volume and domestic flight numbers showed different trends [112]. - **Export High - frequency Data**: Although the export growth rate declined, it was resilient. The export container freight rate index rebounded in November, and the port throughput increased year - on - year [121][135]. 3.3. Policy - related Tracking - **15th Five - Year Plan Suggestions vs. 14th Five - Year Plan Suggestions**: The 15th Five - Year Plan pays more attention to total demand issues, emphasizes scientific and technological self - reliance, and has more specific goals in promoting consumption. It also has new requirements in industrial development, scientific and technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, system reform, opening - up, green development, and people's livelihood protection [145][146][147]. - **Recent Policy Meetings and Measures**: The State Council has made arrangements for the "two new" policies, and relevant departments have issued policies such as promoting urban high - quality development, increasing special bond issuance, and accelerating the investment of policy - based financial instruments [149]. - **Central Bank's Bond - trading Operations**: The central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations. The net investment of various monetary policy tools in the current period shows different situations [150][151]. - **Trade War Progress**: Since 2025, the trade war and tariff game have intensified. The United States has continuously increased tariffs on Chinese imports, and China has carried out counter - measures. There was a brief easing in May, but the US tariff policy has encountered domestic resistance [154][156].

Group 1 - The recent volatility in the gold market is primarily driven by a combination of monetary policy expectations and market sentiment [1][4] - The World Gold Council's CEO for China highlighted three main challenges in gold investment: understanding the market, timing the investment, and holding onto the asset [2] - The decline in gold prices is seen as both a risk release and an opportunity, emphasizing that gold serves as a safety net rather than a quick profit generator [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's shift towards a more hawkish stance has led to a stronger dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices as it is a non-yielding asset [4] - A recovery in global risk appetite, due to easing geopolitical tensions, has resulted in funds moving away from gold to riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies [4] - Technical selling pressure has emerged as many investors sought to lock in profits after a period of rising gold prices, contributing to the recent price drop [4] Group 3 - Since November, international gold prices have dropped over 5%, while domestic gold jewelry prices have decreased by approximately 20-30 yuan per gram, yet remain about 15% higher than at the beginning of the year [4] - Investors face difficulties in understanding the multitude of factors influencing gold prices, leading to impulsive buying and selling behaviors [4] - The average gold price increase over the past three years has been over 20%, but more than 60% of investors exited early, missing out on further gains [4] Group 4 - Different strategies are recommended for various types of investors: immediate buyers should consider current prices for planned purchases, long-term holders should adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach, and short-term speculators should be cautious due to market volatility [2][4] - It is crucial for all investors to choose reputable channels for purchasing gold and to be aware of buyback policies to ensure liquidity [4]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is influenced by the balance between oil price fluctuations and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, with upcoming U.S. CPI and Canadian inflation data expected to dictate the currency's direction [1] Economic Fundamentals - The USD/CAD exchange rate is affected by differences in the economic fundamentals of the U.S. and Canada, diverging monetary policy expectations, and international oil price trends [1] - U.S. core PCE inflation for October was reported at 3.5%, which was lower than expected, while Federal Reserve officials emphasized maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation, pushing back rate cut expectations to 2025, thus supporting the resilience of the USD [1] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was 2.9%, providing a solid foundation for the USD [1] - In Canada, as an oil-exporting country, the recent decline in international oil prices below $80 per barrel has led to a narrowing trade surplus, creating pressure on the economy [1] - Canada's October CPI year-on-year was 3.1%, above the central bank's 2% target, but core inflation showed a marginal decline, leading to market expectations for potential rate cuts next year, which could suppress the CAD [1] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD has entered a bullish channel after rebounding from a low of 1.33520, currently trading at 1.4654, with key support levels at 1.4640 and 1.4630 [2] - If the exchange rate breaks below the support level of 1.4620, it may trigger a short-term correction, while resistance levels are concentrated around 1.4660, 1.4680, and the upper boundary of the previous trading range at 1.4700 [2] - Technical indicators suggest a gradual emergence of an upward trend, with MACD showing a slight increase in bullish momentum and the average directional index rising to around 23, indicating a likely range-bound movement between 1.4630 and 1.4670 in the short term [2] - If the price stabilizes above 1.4680, the target could shift towards 1.4700-1.4720; conversely, a drop below 1.4630 could extend the downside to 1.4625-1.4610 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing a weak market consolidation, trading at 1.3130, down 0.11% from the previous day's close, with a narrow trading range of 1.3125-1.3150 [1] - The upcoming UK October CPI data is expected to significantly influence the Bank of England's future monetary policy path, as current UK economic data is in a phase of stagnation [1] - The fluctuations in the US dollar index are identified as a key variable affecting the short-term movements of the GBP, with ongoing divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts impacting market expectations [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD has been trading within a narrow range of 1.3125-1.3160 for three consecutive days, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears [2] - The primary resistance level is set at 1.3150, and a breakthrough could open up upward movement towards 1.3180, while support is focused on 1.3125, with a potential drop to 1.3100 if breached [2] - The daily chart indicates that the exchange rate is still in a correction phase following a previous rebound, with bearish momentum showing signs of weakening but not fully dissipated [2]

周二亚洲交易时段，市场情绪逐渐回暖。美联储12月降息的预期持续升温，黄金继续稳站4100美元上 方，而美元走强令原油价格承压下行。美国政府停摆问题有望解决，提振了整体市场信心，但避险与风 险资产的表现分化明显。 亚洲早盘，黄金价格（XAU/USD）小幅上涨至每盎司4120美元附近，延续近期强势走势。美国就业与 消费数据疲软令市场普遍押注，美联储下月可能降息25个基点。根据CME FedWatch工具数据，投资者 认为12月降息的概率已升至约67%，到明年1月或进一步攀升至80%。这种预期削弱了美元吸引力，同 时降低了持有黄金的机会成本，从而支撑金价表现。分析人士指出，只要金价稳守4100美元关口，多头 仍占据主导地位，不过美元反弹可能对金价上行构成压制。与此同时，美国政治僵局也出现缓和。参议 院已就结束政府停摆达成初步协议，总统特朗普表示支持，预计政府将在本周重启。政治不确定性降 低，使市场风险偏好回升，短期内可能削弱黄金的避险买盘。 原油市场方面，WTI原油周二亚洲早盘小幅走低，报每桶59.90美元。美元走强与全球能源需求放缓的 担忧继续压制油价表现。上周沙特将对亚洲客户的原油售价下调至近一年低点，引发市场 ...