Group 1 - Oil prices showed a moderate recovery on Thursday, with Brent crude futures rising by $0.28 to $65.91 per barrel, an increase of 0.43%, and WTI crude futures up by $0.23 to $62.89 per barrel, an increase of 0.37% [1] - Geopolitical risks are currently a core variable in the market, with the upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting raising risk premiums. Trump warned of "serious consequences" for Russia if no peace consensus is reached on Ukraine, including potential economic sanctions [3] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in its September meeting, with a nearly 100% probability of a rate cut, and an increasing likelihood of a 50 basis point reduction [3] Group 2 - The EIA reported an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories by 3 million barrels for the week ending August 8, significantly exceeding market expectations of a decrease of 275,000 barrels [3] - IEA's latest forecast indicates that global oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026 will exceed expectations, driven mainly by OPEC+ production plans and non-OPEC countries' capacity expansion [3] - Technical analysis shows that WTI crude prices found initial support around $62.50 per barrel, with resistance near the $64.20-$64.50 range, close to the 20-day moving average [4] Group 3 - The oil market is currently in a tug-of-war between bullish geopolitical risks and dovish monetary policy expectations, while inventory accumulation and supply expansion exert downward pressure [6] - Short-term volatility will largely depend on the outcome of the US-Russia meeting and the Federal Reserve's policy path in September [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the RMB to USD exchange rate and highlights concerns regarding the structural changes in demand for USD assets as a safe haven, influenced by rising political risks and uncertainties in fiscal outlooks [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - On August 14, the onshore RMB opened at 7.1722 against the USD, up from the previous day's closing of 7.1755 [1] - As of 9:30 AM, the offshore RMB was reported at 7.1760 against the USD [1] - The RMB's central parity rate against the USD was set at 7.1337, an increase of 13 points from the previous trading day [1] Dollar Index and Economic Insights - The USD index showed a downward trend, reported at 97.6432 as of 9:30 AM [1] - Gabriela Chimienti, an economist at the Asian Development Bank, noted that changes in monetary policy expectations are the main drivers of short-term fluctuations in the USD [1] - There is a concerning structural shift indicating a weakening demand for USD assets as a safe haven, attributed to rising political risks and doubts about institutional independence [1] - If this trend continues, it may reduce global demand for USD assets, exerting downward pressure on the USD and potentially increasing long-term borrowing costs in the U.S. [1]

【导读】宁德时代（300750）枧下窝锂矿停产，锂矿概念股集体大涨；中慧生物-B港股上市首日大涨157.98% 8月11日，港股三大指数涨跌不一。其中，恒生指数收涨0.19%，恒生科技指数微跌0.01%，恒生中国企业指数微跌0.08%。全日大市成交额为2009亿港 元，南向资金净买入金额为3834.40万港元。 | 主板 | 涨 886 | 平 642 | 跌 759 | | 恒生指数期货 | 24892 | 58 0.23% | 恒生科指期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 年初至今 序号 | | 1 | HSI | 恒生指数 | | 24906.81c | 47.99 | 0.19% | 2009亿 | 24.16% 1 | | 2 | HSTECH | 恒生科技 | | 5460.02c | -0.28 | -0.01% | 524亿 | 22.20% 2 | | 3 | HSHKBIO | 恒生生物科技 | | 16236.68c | 1 ...

白银、钯金等品种的同步上涨，也反映出贵金属板块整体的资金流入趋势。白银价格触及自7月25日以 来的高点38.11美元/盎司，钯金涨幅更是达到1.7%，至1151.31美元。这种联动行情表明，资金在避险情 绪的驱动下，不仅青睐传统的黄金，也在布局工业属性与贵金属属性兼备的品种，以实现风险对冲与潜 在收益的平衡。 8月8日亚洲交易时段，现货黄金在3400美元/盎司附近交投，延续了前一日的涨势。此前，美国总统特 朗普宣布的新一轮关税正式生效，加之最新就业数据强化了市场对美联储年内降息的预期，使得投资者 的避险情绪明显升温。现货黄金周四一度触及自7月23日以来的最高水平3392.65美元，期金结算价则升 至3453.7美元，白银、钯金等贵金属亦出现不同程度上涨。 在宏观环境的交汇作用下，黄金市场的上涨逻辑清晰可见。首先，关税的落地加剧了投资者对全球贸易 环境不确定性的担忧，这不仅可能影响企业盈利和跨境投资，还可能引发全球供应链的再调整。在这种 背景下，部分资金倾向于增持无信用风险的避险资产，而黄金无疑是首选之一。 不过值得注意的是，当前金价已接近近期高位，而其背后的驱动力在很大程度上依赖于政策预期与宏观 事件的持续性 ...

亚洲早盘 黄金小幅走高，受对美联储降息的憧憬支撑，降息会提升非孳息性贵金属的吸引力。现货黄 金上涨0.1%，报每盎司3,382.62美元。隔夜公布的美国数据显示，美国供应管理学会服务业指数7月份 降至50.1，低于经济学家预期的51.2。Exness的Van Ha Trinh表示，色彩日益偏宽松的货币政策预期可能 会继续支撑黄金。这位金融市场策略师补充说，投资者很可能会继续关注美国经济数据，以寻找有关该 国经济走向的线索。 ...

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports a significant downward revision of 258,000 jobs, the largest since 1979, which is 4-5 times the normal adjustment range [1][2][5] - The analysis indicates that current employment data holds more predictive power regarding economic trends than historical revisions, maintaining the expectation of no interest rate cuts until 2025 [1][9] Employment Data Revision - The July employment report revealed unexpected large downward revisions for the previous two months: June's non-farm employment was revised from 147,000 to only 14,000, a reduction of 133,000; May's data was adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000, a drop of 125,000, totaling a net revision of 258,000 [2][3] - Historically, from March 1979 to July 2025, the average net revision has been an upward adjustment of 1,200 jobs, making this downward revision the largest in 46 years when excluding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [3] Statistical Analysis - The average absolute value of historical revisions is 56,000 jobs, with a standard deviation of 61,000; thus, the 258,000 job revision is statistically significant and considered an outlier [5] - Using a Probit regression model, Morgan Stanley found that while the large downward revision correlates with an increased recession probability, the effect is limited, raising the likelihood of recession by only 9 percentage points [9] Current Employment Signals - The July report showed an addition of 73,000 jobs, which is deemed more critical than the previous downward revisions; the current employment data is viewed as a stronger indicator of economic health [9] - Other indicators from the July report, such as moderate wage growth, slight increases in hours worked, and low unemployment rates, suggest that these current signals are more relevant than the historical downward adjustments [9] - Despite acknowledging that the downward revisions indicate a faster-than-expected slowdown in labor demand, Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast of no interest rate cuts through 2025, suggesting that recession risks remain elevated but not at a level that would alter the overall economic outlook [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of global markets, particularly focusing on trade policy uncertainty, monetary policy expectations, and macroeconomic data trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: The Euro area composite flash PMI rose to 51.0, indicating positive growth momentum. The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, supported by a 'Goldilocks' regime characterized by favorable growth conditions and risk asset returns [1][8]. 2. **Trade Policy Uncertainty**: Trade policy uncertainty has decreased to its lowest level since January, with recent trade agreements between Japan and the US, as well as the EU and US, setting reciprocal tariffs at 15%. This has positively impacted Japanese equities, particularly in the Autos and Industrial sectors [2][21]. 3. **Monetary Policy Expectations**: Expectations for monetary policy have shifted to a less dovish stance, with the ECB indicating a "wait and see" approach. The FOMC and BoJ are also expected to maintain current rates. This shift is reflected in the flattening of the 2s10s curves across G4 economies [3][17]. 4. **Earnings Season Performance**: The Q2 earnings season in the US has surprised positively, with markets pricing in larger moves for individual stocks compared to the index. Speculative trading activity has increased, which may support near-term equity returns [3][19]. 5. **Asset Allocation Strategy**: The asset allocation remains tactically neutral and modestly pro-risk for the next 12 months. The current 'Goldilocks' regime is expected to persist, driven by falling trade uncertainty and supportive macro data [4][7]. Additional Important Insights 1. **GDP Growth Forecasts**: Japan's GDP growth forecast has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points for FY'25/'26 following the trade agreement announcements [2][10]. 2. **Market Volatility**: The report notes that markets are currently pricing in 2.4 times larger moves for the average stock compared to the index, indicating heightened volatility expectations [3][19]. 3. **Sector Performance**: The rally in Japan was led by cyclical sectors, particularly Autos and Industrials, as defensive sectors were repriced higher [2][10]. 4. **Future Economic Indicators**: Upcoming economic indicators, including US NFPs, ISM, and advance GDP prints, are expected to provide further insights into the economic landscape [7][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current market dynamics, trade policy developments, and monetary policy expectations that are shaping investment strategies.

Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to decline due to reduced safe-haven demand driven by optimistic trade sentiments between the US and EU, alongside strong economic data and monetary policy expectations [3][4][10] Group 1: Trade Optimism and Safe-Haven Demand - Market expectations for a breakthrough in US-EU trade negotiations have diminished the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, with a potential agreement to lower tariffs to 15% expected by August 1 [3] - The announcement of a €93 billion tariff plan by EU member states against US products has not deterred optimism regarding a trade deal, leading to a significant drop in gold prices from a five-week high of $3438 [3] - The European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates has reinforced expectations of a weak Eurozone economy, indirectly supporting a stronger US dollar and pressuring gold prices [3] Group 2: Economic Data and Monetary Policy Pressure - Strong US economic data, including a 15.5% increase in durable goods orders (excluding defense), has contributed to a hawkish outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, with a 94% probability of maintaining interest rates in July [4] - The rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.384% and an increase in real yields to 1.994% have raised the opportunity cost of holding gold [4] - The US dollar index has strengthened by 0.18% to 97.62, further diminishing the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Institutional Withdrawal - Gold has fallen below the critical psychological level of $3400, with potential further declines towards $3350 if it remains below this threshold [7] - The RSI indicator shows a weakening of buyer dominance, indicating a slowdown in momentum [7] - Institutional investors are accelerating their exit from gold, as evidenced by a reduction in COMEX non-commercial net long positions by 3200 contracts to 122,000 and a decrease in SPDR Gold ETF holdings to a two-month low of 954.8 tons [9] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Data Expectations - Despite trade and economic factors dominating the market, geopolitical risks remain a concern, with potential events that could temporarily boost safe-haven demand [10] - The market is awaiting the release of US July durable goods orders data, with expectations of a drop from 16.4% in May to 10.8%, which could further reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve if the data exceeds expectations [10] - The current gold market faces dual pressures from trade optimism and economic data, with increased risks of downward movement below the $3350 support level [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical risks, monetary policy expectations, and economic data performance, leading to uncertainty in gold's market outlook [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has led to a rapid decline in geopolitical risk premiums, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Positive signals from tariff negotiations have increased market risk appetite, causing some funds to shift from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, which has pressured gold prices [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The U.S. dollar index has seen a decline this week, yet gold prices have not benefited from this trend. Market pricing indicates a 20% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, rising to 75% in September [3]. - Despite high inflation data, the market maintains expectations for a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, but this has not provided effective support for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Economic Data Performance - The unexpected weakness in the U.S. June ADP employment data, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, highlights concerns in the job market and strengthens bets on an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The market is closely watching the upcoming June non-farm payroll data, as its results will significantly impact gold price movements [3]. Group 4: Gold Price Outlook - The recent volatility in gold prices is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with geopolitical risk easing, diverging monetary policy expectations, and mixed economic data contributing to uncertainty [4]. - In the short term, gold prices may remain volatile, with a focus on U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve policy direction. In the medium to long term, global economic uncertainty and central bank gold purchases may support gold's value as a safe-haven asset [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing upward movement against the US dollar (USD), trading around 0.6559, with market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increasing significantly [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The one-month OIS rate has dropped to 3.7%, indicating a 60% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next month [1] - Cash rate futures suggest a 90% probability of a rate cut, with 90-day bank bill futures fully pricing in a 25 basis point reduction, bringing the expected rate down to 3.6% [1] - The bond market has already reflected these expectations, with the 3-year government bond yield falling to 3.6% [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Analysts from UOB expect the AUD/USD to maintain a range-bound movement between 0.6465 and 0.6515 in the short term, with potential for wider fluctuations between 0.6385 and 0.6555 [1] - If the AUD/USD price breaks below the 0.6465-0.6460 range, it may find support around the 0.6400 level, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.6375-0.6370 [2] - A clear break below these support levels could shift market sentiment to bearish, potentially driving the AUD/USD down to 0.6300 and further to 0.6245 and below 0.6200 [2]