（原标题：欧盟与印度的贸易协定发出了重要的政治信号） 《爱尔兰时报》1月27日发表评论文章，欧盟与印度已就贸易协定达成原则性共识，这是一个重要 的政治信号。与南方共同市场协定类似，欧盟此举旨在强调其对贸易协定、多元化和基于规则的贸易方 式的承诺，尤其是在特朗普的政策颠覆现有体系之际。 该协定在经济上也意义重大，尽管目前欧盟与印度的贸易额相对有限，如果该协议获得通过，贸易 额预计会逐步增长。欧盟汽车企业将获得更大的市场准入，但仍需受配额限制。一些与爱尔兰相关的领 域，包括药品和烈酒的关税将下调，爱尔兰威士忌有望成为重要受益者之一。 牛肉行业被排除在外，这使得爱尔兰很可能支持最终协议，尽管其全部条款的细节尚未公布。印度 与俄罗斯的密切关系可能会在欧盟内部引发一些政治阻力。 欧盟与南美国家和印度历经多年谈判达成的两项协议如今终于完成，这绝非巧合。这是在面对特朗 普威胁时，表明欧盟的贸易政策"一切照旧"。欧盟与美国去年达成的框架性贸易协议，因特朗普近期计 划就格陵兰岛问题征收关税而受到威胁，最终能否达成并实施仍有待观察。 对爱尔兰而言，贸易多元化至关重要。与对南方共同市场的立场截然不同，爱政府对与印度的协议 表示欢迎 ...

格隆汇2月7日｜美国和印度发表关于贸易协定的联合声明，美国和印度将为对方提供优惠市场准入。美 国将对印度商品征收18%的"对等"关税，美国将针对印度供应的特定飞机和零部件取消关税。印度计划 购买价值5000亿美元的美国能源、飞机和金属。 ...

新华社布宜诺斯艾利斯2月5日电（记者张铎 王钟毅）阿根廷政府5日宣布与美国签署互惠贸易和投资协 定。阿根廷舆论认为，政府此举旨在通过对美开放市场缓和美方关税压力，但势必给阿根廷农业发展带 来冲击。 ...

Core Points - India and the United States are expected to sign a formal trade agreement in March, which will involve India reducing tariffs on U.S. goods [1][5] - The agreement will see the U.S. reduce tariffs on Indian exports from 50% to 18%, while India commits to purchasing approximately $500 billion worth of U.S. goods over the next five years, including $70 to $80 billion in Boeing aircraft [1][5] - The formal signing process of the agreement is expected to take 30 to 45 days, with a joint statement to be released in four to five days [1][6] Trade and Economic Impact - Following the announcement of the trade agreement, the Indian stock market experienced an increase, indicating reduced uncertainty in the bilateral relationship [2][6] - India plans to increase its procurement of energy, aircraft, and chips from the U.S., with total orders for aircraft, engines, and parts valued at approximately $100 billion [6] - Tata Group's airline has ordered nearly 200 aircraft from Boeing, while Akasa Air has ordered 226 Boeing 737 MAX planes [6] Agricultural Concerns - The main opposition party in India is pressuring the government to disclose details of the agreement, particularly regarding the openness of the agricultural sector [3][7] - Officials have indicated that India will provide limited market access for U.S. agricultural products while retaining key industrial protection measures [4][8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-5 天胶反弹，其它偏震荡 逻辑：昨日商品情绪演继续回暖，天胶同样跟随小幅走高，整体依旧维持 多头趋势。前期的上涨主要是宏观氛围驱动，并无基本面变化，所以昨日 回落也不存在基本面的变化。目前来看近一个月运行区间上移，前期压力 位成为支撑位。当前交易逻辑我们认为或维持宏观影响为主。当前胶价基 本面相对偏弱，但预期尚可，所以也存在提前于基本面发生边际变化前开 始上涨的可能。目前基本面具体来说，海外供应季节性上量相对顺利，上 游供应目前仍相对充裕。而需求端来看，节前轮胎企业逢低采购，虽对现 货形成一定支撑，但总体并未出现大批量集中补库的情况。而当前最明面 的利空为较快的累库。但在资金炒作预期的背景下，盘面暂时易涨难跌。 展望：基本面变量有限，但当前资金关注度继续上升，盘面维持震荡。 风险因素：宏观对商品超预期的扰动，天气。 农业团队 油脂：⽣柴税收抵免政策发布，油脂⼩幅反弹 蛋⽩粕：购销清淡，双粕延续震荡 ⽟⽶/淀粉：购销逐步清淡，期现窄幅震荡 ⽣猪：供需宽松，现货回调 天然橡㬵：多头情绪延续 合成橡㬵：⾼位震荡 棉花：节前窄幅 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the trade agreement between the United States and India, where the U.S. will reduce tariffs on Indian goods to 18% in exchange for India lowering tariffs on U.S. goods and potentially ceasing oil purchases from Russia [2] - The agreement includes a commitment from India to purchase $500 billion worth of U.S. energy, technology, and agricultural products [2] - India is heavily reliant on oil imports, with approximately 90% of its demand met through imports, making it the third-largest oil importer globally [3] Group 2 - Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, India has significantly increased its imports of cheap oil from Russia [3] - Recent reports indicate that India has begun to slow down its oil purchases from Russia, with imports expected to decrease from about 1.2 million barrels per day in January to approximately 1 million barrels per day in February, and further down to 800,000 barrels per day in March [3]

德国总理默茨表示，尽管欧洲议会中的反对者计划对南方共同市场贸易协定进行司法审查，但欧盟与南 方共同市场成员国之间的贸易协定仍将暂时生效。默茨周一在 法兰克福发表讲话时称："一旦首个南美 国家批准该贸易协定，该协定将立即生效。" ...

Core Insights - India and the European Union have finalized a trade deal that significantly reduces tariffs on nearly all goods, which may impact global trade dynamics and energy supply chains [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Deal Implications - The trade deal allows Europe to purchase refined products from India, which are derived from Russian oil, raising concerns about financing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine [2][10]. - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on India for purchasing Russian oil, while the EU is leveraging the free trade agreement to strengthen ties with India, potentially altering U.S.-EU trade relations [4][9]. Group 2: India's Energy Needs - India imports approximately 4.5 million barrels of oil per day, with traditional suppliers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq providing around 2.2 million barrels, while other countries have significantly reduced their supply [5][15]. - The decline in oil production from various countries and sanctions on Venezuela and Iran have led India to increasingly rely on Russian oil, which is seen as a necessity rather than a choice [6][15][16]. Group 3: Future Energy Sanctions - The ongoing reliance on Russian oil by India may undermine the credibility of future energy sanctions, as India continues to seek energy security amidst declining supplies from traditional sources [14][15]. - The EU's phased approach to sanctions contrasts with the U.S. strategy, indicating a divergence in policy that could complicate future trade negotiations [11][12].

印度与欧盟双方于本周二宣布，已敲定一项搁置已久的里程碑式贸易协定，此举旨在降低对美贸易关系 波动带来的风险。 欧盟方面表示，该协定将对按货值计算占比 96.6% 的贸易商品取消或降低关税，预计到 2032 年，欧盟 对印度的出口额将实现翻倍，欧洲企业的关税成本也将因此节省 40 亿欧元（约合 47.5 亿美元）。 印度商务部在一份声明中指出，欧盟将在七年内对99.5% 的贸易商品下调关税，其中印度的水产品、皮 革制品、纺织品、化工产品、橡胶、贱金属以及珠宝首饰等商品的关税将降至零。 印度总理纳伦德拉・莫迪早些时候表示："昨天，欧盟与印度签署了一项意义重大的协定。" 他称："全球各界都将其称为'协定之王'。这份协定将为印度 14 亿民众和欧洲数百万民众带来重大机 遇。" 欧盟的声明显示，该协定将打开印度这个庞大且壁垒森严的市场。印度将在五年内把汽车关税从最高 110% 逐步降至 10%，大众、雷诺、奔驰和BMWYY>宝马等欧洲汽车制造商将从中受益。 欧盟同时指出，印度还将立即把葡萄酒等酒精饮料的关税从 150% 降至 75%，并逐步下调至 20%；烈酒 关税则将降至 40%。 此外，该协定还将降低一系列欧盟输印 ...

根据该协议，将逐步允许最多25万辆欧洲制造的汽车以优惠关税税率进入印度，这一数字远高于根据另 一份协议给予英国的3.7万辆配额。其中约16万辆内燃机汽车的进口关税将在五年内降至10%，而针对9 万辆电动汽车，为保护印度新兴的电动车市场，相关关税将在第十年才开始下调。大部分类别汽车的初 始配额内关税将从约30%起征。超出此配额外，该贸易协定还商定在十年内将燃油动力汽车的关税降至 35%。相较于印度目前对进口汽车征收高达110%的关税，这是一次大幅度的关税下调。这一前所未有 的配额安排，标志着双方正通过贸易协定重塑经济关系。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：磐石 1月27日，根据印度与欧盟达成的贸易协定，印度已同意给予欧洲汽车制造商一项远超近期其他协议的 配额，大幅削减关税，并向其长期受严格保护的汽车市场开放更大准入空间。 ...