五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-05-22 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周三美豆震荡小幅收涨，美豆新作平衡表在贸易战缓和及产量不增情景下有偏紧趋势，阿根廷局部产量 受损及本周美豆产区降雨过多或推迟播种提供一定支撑。不过已播种区域降雨偏好限制涨幅。周三国内 豆粕现货涨跌互现 10 元/吨左右，华东低价报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内 供应压力增大。上周港口大豆库存继续增加，同比偏高约 120 万吨，油厂豆粕库存偏低报 12 万吨左右。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴 ...

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-05-21 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周二美豆震荡小幅收涨，美豆新作平衡表在贸易战缓和及产量不增情景下有偏紧趋势，阿根廷局部产量 受损及本周美豆产区降雨过多或推迟播种提供一定支撑。周二国内豆粕现货下跌，因开机率提升，华东 低价报 2850 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。 据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内供应压力增大。上周港口大豆库存继续 增加，同比偏高约 120 万吨，油厂豆粕库存偏低报 12 万吨左右。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴西农民大豆销售进度已超过 60%，后期 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short - term high - level allocation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak shock [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Shock [2] - Glass: Shock [2] - Soda ash: Shock [2] - CSI 300: Shock [4] - SSE 50: Rebound [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2 - year treasury bond: Shock [4] - 5 - year treasury bond: Shock [4] - 10 - year treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: High - level shock [4] - Silver: Strong - biased shock [4] - Pulp: Shock [6] - Logs: Shock [6] - Soybean oil: Shock [6] - Palm oil: Shock [6] - Rapeseed oil: Shock [6] - Soybean meal: Weak - biased shock [6] - Rapeseed meal: Weak - biased shock [6] - Soybean No. 2: Weak - biased shock [6] - Soybean No. 1: Shock [6] - Live pigs: Shock [8] - Rubber: Strong - biased shock [8] - PX: Wait - and - see [8] - PTA: Wait - and - see [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Core Viewpoints - The driving force for the previous policy - and - sentiment - driven rise in the black industry has gradually weakened, and it will return to fundamentals in the short term. The financial market is affected by factors such as LPR cuts and deposit rate cuts, and the precious metal market is influenced by multiple factors including central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets are facing different supply - and - demand situations, and the polyester industry is affected by factors such as oil prices and raw material supply [2][4][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The driving force for the previous policy - and - sentiment - driven rise has weakened. Supply is expected to increase, iron - water production has declined from a high level, port inventory is relatively high, and demand is the key. The improvement in steel - demand expectations due to the easing of the trade war is offset by the seasonal weakening of actual demand. Conservative investors can try long - short spreads, and aggressive investors can focus on short - selling opportunities in the far - month contracts [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply - and - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose. Coking enterprises' profits have improved, but steel mills' procurement willingness has decreased, and coke supply has increased, with an overall supply - surplus pattern [2] - **Rebar**: The driving force for the previous rise has weakened, demand is falling slowly in the short term, inventory is still being depleted, but the rainy season may affect inventory depletion. Supply remains high, and attention should be paid to the impact of the suspension of a 24% tariff on exports [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed operation, daily output has fluctuated slightly, spot prices have fallen slightly, and inventory has increased significantly. The real - estate industry is in an adjustment period, and demand is difficult to recover significantly [2] Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indexes. The latest LPR has been cut, and banks have lowered deposit rates. The Sino - US tariff issue has achieved phased results, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has eased. Long positions in stock indexes can be held [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has risen, and market interest rates are consolidating. The central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations, and long positions in treasury bonds can be held lightly [4] - **Gold**: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting, and factors such as central bank gold purchases, currency credit, and geopolitical risks are affecting its price. The logic for the current price increase has not completely reversed, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock [4] Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: Spot prices are stable, raw - material prices have fallen, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off - season. Pulp prices are expected to be in a shock [6] - **Logs**: Downstream demand is in the off - season, supply pressure has weakened, and prices are expected to be in a bottom - level shock [6] - **Oils and fats**: Palm oil production is in a seasonal increase period, and inventory has risen. The supply of three major oils is abundant, and it is in the traditional consumption off - season, but pre - festival stocking has improved spot consumption. Prices are expected to be in a shock [6] - **Meals**: Sino - US trade relations have eased, US soybean inventories may tighten, and domestic soybean supply has become more abundant. Meal prices are expected to be in a weak - biased shock [6] - **Live pigs**: The average slaughter weight has increased slightly, demand from slaughter enterprises has decreased, and post - festival consumption has declined seasonally. However, secondary fattening demand provides support, and prices are expected to be in a shock [8] - **Rubber**: Domestic rubber output is stable, Thai raw - material prices are high, demand from tire enterprises is recovering, inventory accumulation has slowed down, and prices are expected to be in a strong - biased shock [8] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The acceleration of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks may suppress oil - price rebounds, PX load has recovered, and prices are expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The acceleration of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks may suppress oil - price rebounds, PXN spreads are around $272/ton, and short - term supply and demand are in a de - stocking state, mainly affected by raw - material price fluctuations [9] - **MEG**: Domestic production load has decreased, ports are expected to de - stock, raw - material prices are weak, and the market fluctuates widely due to macro - sentiment fluctuations [9] - **PR**: Mainstream polyester factories may cut production, and prices may be adjusted downward due to cost factors [9] - **PF**: Although downstream buyers are cautious, international oil prices have risen, and supply - side factors are favorable. The market is expected to be in a narrow - range consolidation [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand situation of iron ore is loose, with steel mills' molten iron production decreasing and the arrival level remaining high this month. The port inventory has increased. There are rumors of a crude steel reduction policy, and the trade war is easing. With a neutral fundamental situation, a positive basis, a neutral inventory situation, a positive trend on the disk, a negative main position, and considering the market sentiment and domestic demand, the report suggests a fluctuating and slightly bearish outlook [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' molten iron production is decreasing, supply - side arrival levels remain high this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory increases, there are rumors of a crude steel reduction policy, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot - equivalent prices of Rizhao Port PB powder and Brazilian coarse ore are 852 and 826 respectively, with basis values of 127 and 101, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is positive [2]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is 14,746.99 tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is positive [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is negative [2]. - **Expectation**: There are signs of trade war easing, market sentiment is warming up, but domestic demand is decreasing and imports are increasing, suggesting a fluctuating and slightly bearish trend [2]. Factors - **Positive Factors**: Steel mills' replenishment has increased, port inventory has decreased, there are import losses, and the trade war is easing [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Future shipment volumes will increase, terminal demand remains weak, there are rumors of a domestic crude steel reduction policy, and no strong stimulus policies have been introduced [5]. Other Catalogs - The report also includes information on iron ore port spot prices [6], iron ore futures - spot basis [11], iron ore import profit [13], iron ore shipment volume [15], iron ore port inventory and steel mill inventory [18], iron ore arrival and dispatch volume [20], iron ore daily consumption [24], steel enterprise production situation [27], and iron ore port daily trading volume and steel mills' daily molten iron [29], but no specific data summaries are provided in the given text.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Global Economic Research and Trade Policy - **Company**: J.P. Morgan Core Insights and Arguments - The US has reduced tariffs on China to approximately 40%, down from 145%, resulting in a nearly 10 percentage point decrease in the effective US tariff rate, which now stands at around 14% compared to 3.5% at the beginning of the year [2][12][20] - This tariff reduction has led to an upward revision of the US GDP projections for 2025, now expected to expand by 0.6%, and a decrease in inflation forecasts due to less tariff pass-through [2][12] - Core PCE inflation is projected to remain elevated at 3.5%, prompting a delay in the Federal Reserve's policy normalization until December [2][12] - The trade war's impact on business sentiment has been significant, with sentiment dropping into recession territory, but the anticipated recession in the US for the second half of 2025 has been removed due to the tariff détente [3][11] - Despite the positive developments, the overall global growth outlook remains weak, with recession risks still estimated at 40% for the second half of 2025 [11][17] Additional Important Content - The current US tariff rate represents a substantial tax hike equivalent to 1.25% of GDP, which could lead to upward pressure on prices for imported goods [14] - The US fiscal policy is shifting towards a more stimulative approach, with a proposed net stimulus of nearly 1% of GDP for the next year, which is expected to support continued labor demand and economic expansion [14][19] - The easing of trade tensions with China does not imply a resolution of trade issues with the EU and other Asian countries, where negotiations remain contentious [11][18] - The US administration's recent actions indicate a willingness to avoid "short-term pain for long-term gain," which has positively influenced asset prices and market sentiment [12][19] - The anticipated growth drag on China due to tariffs has been reduced to -1.5 percentage points, leading to a revised growth forecast of 4.8% for 2025 [20] - The economic integration deals with Gulf states, including significant investments and economic exchanges, are expected to enhance trade flows but have limited immediate economic impact [19][26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of US trade policy changes and their effects on the broader economic landscape.

农产品早报 2025-05-20 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周一美豆震荡为主，美豆新作平衡表在贸易战缓和及产量不增情景下有偏紧趋势，提供一定支撑。周一 国内豆粕现货下跌，因开机率提升，华东低价报 2860 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估本周大豆压榨量预计来到 220 万吨高位，国内 供应压力增大。上周港口大豆库存继续增加，同比偏高约 120 万吨，油厂豆粕库存偏低报 12 万吨左右。 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周中部降雨较多，可能对播种有所影响。巴西农民大豆销售进度已超过 60%，后期卖压 或逐步下降，另一方面，巴西也有对中美关系恢复的担忧， ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 20 日星期二 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-20） | 铁矿：前期政策与情绪驱动的上涨动力逐步减弱，短期内回归基本面。本 | 期澳巴发运回升，随着部分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的改善，供应 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 仍有增加预期。铁水产量高位转降，长流程钢厂利润阶段性修复，上周检 | 铁矿石 | 逢高空配 | 修的高炉本周复产，5 | 月铁水产量将维持在高位，铁矿价格受到高铁水支 | | | | | 撑。铁矿港口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核 | 心关键，贸易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，但现实需求季 | | | | | | | | 节性走弱，铁矿上方受到淡季需求压制。美国进口商未来三个月将迎来进 | 口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期，对近月需求形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者 | | | | | | | | 尝试铁矿正套，激进的投资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月反弹抛空机 | 会 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The easing of trade tensions between China and the US has led to a recovery in macroeconomic sentiment, benefiting the overall base metals sector [4][16][42] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to remain attractive due to ongoing economic uncertainties and inflation concerns, with gold prices anticipated to rise in the long term [4][42][43] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in gold and silver mining companies, as well as in base metals like copper and aluminum, driven by favorable market conditions and policy support [17][18][42] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices on COMEX fell by 3.72% to $3,205.30 per ounce, while silver prices decreased by 1.37% to $32.43 per ounce [22][24] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 617,575.37 troy ounces, and SLV Silver ETF holdings fell by 1,591,307.50 ounces [24] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to support gold prices, with a focus on gold resource stocks due to their low valuation levels [4][42][43] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper prices increased by 0.02% to $9,447.50 per ton, aluminum rose by 2.65% to $2,481.50 per ton, zinc increased by 1.43% to $2,691.50 per ton, and lead rose by 0.93% to $2,000.00 per ton [6][44] - SHFE market showed similar trends with copper at 78,140.00 yuan per ton, aluminum at 20,130.00 yuan per ton, zinc at 22,500.00 yuan per ton, and lead at 16,870.00 yuan per ton [6][44] - The report indicates a tightening supply of copper concentrate and a favorable outlook for copper prices due to ongoing infrastructure investments and demand in sectors like electric vehicles [17][71] Small Metals - The report notes that magnesium prices have remained firm due to cost increases and environmental inspections in certain regions [14] - The market for molybdenum and vanadium is stable, with steel mills beginning to procure, although price movements are limited [15][79] - The US has initiated anti-dumping investigations on metal silicon imports, which may impact market dynamics [78]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in a better-than-expected outcome, with a 90-day suspension of 24% tariffs and retention of the remaining 10% [4] - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing mixed performance, with some companies reporting lower-than-expected earnings due to various operational challenges [15][16][17] Company Summaries Yuanyuan Group - For Q1 2025, Yuanyuan Group reported revenues of $202.9 million and a net profit of $7.6 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.3% and a decline of 24.2% respectively, which was below market expectations [15] Under Armour - Under Armour's FY25 revenue was $5.2 billion, down 9% year-on-year, with an operating loss of $185 million. Adjusted operating profit was $198 million, with a net loss of $201 million [16] - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to decline by 4% to 5% compared to the same period in FY25, although gross margins are projected to improve [16] On - On reported a record Q1 sales of 727 million Swiss Francs, a 43% increase year-on-year, driven by a successful multi-channel strategy [17] - The company raised its full-year sales forecast for 2025, expecting at least a 28% increase, with gross margins projected between 60.0% and 60.5% [17] Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.28% increase, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.52% [19] - The overall retail sales in China for the first four months of 2025 grew by 4.1%, with online retail sales increasing by 11.5% [23] Material Data - As of May 16, 2025, the China Cotton 3128B Index was 14,577 RMB/ton, with a year-to-date decline of 0.9% [34][9] - The USDA forecasts a 2.7% year-on-year decrease in global cotton production for the 2025/2026 season [45]

东海期货 铁矿石价格短期以偏强思路对待 华联期货 前期铁矿2509合约空单注意减仓 新世纪期货：稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套 关税降幅超预期，市场情绪明显提振，黑色盘面大幅上涨。随着部分矿山产能的逐步释放和气候条件的 改善，供应仍有增加的预期。铁矿港口库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。需求才是核心关 键，贸易战缓和使得市场对钢铁需求的预期有所改善，美国进口商未来三个月将迎来进口成本大幅降低 的明确窗口期，未来90天中美两国之间的贸易将大幅增长，对近月形成一定支撑，稳健的投资者尝试铁 矿正套，激进的投资者关注贸易冲突缓和带来的远月合约反弹抛空机会。 东海期货：铁矿石价格短期以偏强思路对待 5月15日盘中，铁矿石期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至738.5元。截止发稿，铁矿石主力合 约报735.5元，涨幅1.03%。 铁矿石期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 新世纪期货 稳健的投资者尝试铁矿正套 钢厂利润可观，铁水产量短期处于高位，后续铁水产量回落是大概率事件，但对于回落路径，市场存在 较大分歧。供应方面，铁矿石发货量环比回落21.5万吨，到港量环比回落95.1万吨 ...