Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong supported by high inflation and employment resilience, but in the medium - term, it is restricted by fiscal pressure and differences in the pace of interest rate cuts. The RMB fundamentals are still mild, but with narrowing interest rate spreads, stable settlement, and eased external expectations, the short - term exchange rate has a foundation for phased stability [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the put - end volatility higher than the call - end. The volatility of the USD/CNY option has declined, indicating that the market's expectation of future volatility of the USD/CNY has weakened [4]. - The term structure shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the US - China interest rate spread over different time periods [8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor has not been activated and shows a fluctuating trend. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [10]. - Based on CFTC data (as of July 8), the report presents the total positions and speculative net long positions of various currency pairs such as GBP/USD, CAD/USD, EUR/USD, and JPY/USD [14][17]. 2. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Economic Situation - There are differences in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account had a balance of $311 billion on July 9, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $227.2 billion. Changing the Fed chairman is unlikely to significantly change the US monetary policy direction in the short term [23]. - The US economic downward risk is rising. Employment data is mixed, inflation is waiting for June CPI data, and the economy is showing marginal decline with falling fiscal expenditure, differentiated June economic sentiment, and pressured May retail sales [25]. Tariff Events - In the trade negotiations with the US among 17 key countries and regions, different situations are presented. For example, the UK - US agreement is in effect, the China - US is accelerating the implementation of the London framework results, the India - US is close to reaching a temporary trade agreement, etc. Trump extended the grace period for the equal - tariff to August 1, and the equal - tariff 2.0 phase has officially started, increasing global trade uncertainty [26]. The "Great Beautiful Act" in the US - The "Great Beautiful Act" became effective on July 4. It includes measures such as corporate and individual tax cuts, reduction of clean - energy subsidies, medical assistance, and the supplementary nutrition assistance program, and an increase in the debt ceiling. However, it may lead to problems such as fiscal front - loading, deterioration of income and welfare distribution, and increased inflation [30][32]. China's Economic Situation - China's economic structure is differentiated. In June, the pressure increased, with the growth rates of investment sub - items declining and retail sales also under pressure. June's export data exceeded expectations, with financial data improving, and the RMB showing resilience in the face of trade policy uncertainties [33][42]. Comprehensive Rectification of "Involution - style" Competition - The government is promoting the in - depth construction of a unified national market, including requirements such as "five unifications and one opening". Industries such as steel, refining, and photovoltaic are the focus of rectification, with measures including curbing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the exit of backward production capacity [44]. Trade Policy Uncertainty - In 2025, Sino - US tariff frictions have recurred. Although a suspension agreement was reached in May, there may be further fluctuations. The export structure has changed, with emerging markets supporting overall exports. The RMB has shown resilience and is less affected by tariff policies, and the marginal impact of trade uncertainty on the exchange rate will continue to weaken [53]. Overall Views - Currently, the economic expectation difference between China and the US is neutral, the interest rate spread is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is also neutral. In the short - term, the US dollar may remain strong, while the RMB has a foundation for phased stability [57]. Risk Assessment - From the historical data from April 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years), the range of the premium and discount of the futures main contract is between - 1100 and 900 [58].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience with a three-day upward trend, closing at 24,203 points, up 63 points or 0.3% [2] - The main board turnover was HKD 210.4 billion, a decrease of 35.1% from the previous day's high of HKD 324 billion [2] - Northbound trading maintained a net inflow status, with a significant increase of 372.7% in net inflow to HKD 8.243 billion [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The social financing data released by the People's Bank of China for the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with a total increase of CNY 22.8 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 26.2% [4] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 12.9 trillion, indicating reasonable growth in financial volume and a continuous decline in financing costs [4] - Despite strong overall data, some monthly credit data showed weakness, reflecting uncertainty in corporate expectations [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Tmall (6110.HK) - Tmall reported a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year to HKD 27.01 billion, primarily due to weak offline consumption and reduced foot traffic [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 41.9% to HKD 1.29 billion, with the decline in profit outpacing revenue due to high fixed costs [6] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 135%, distributing a final dividend of HKD 0.02 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Tmall is optimizing its store structure, reducing the number of direct-operated stores by 18.3% to 5,020, while focusing on improving operational efficiency [7] - The company is expanding its brand partnerships, including collaborations with high-end running brands, to diversify its brand matrix [7] - Future performance is expected to improve as retail consumption conditions recover, with projected EPS for FY26/27/28 at HKD 0.21/0.22/0.23, and a target price of HKD 3.6 based on a 16x PE for FY26 [7]

Group 1 - The new export orders index has dropped to 97.9, indicating a contraction and suggesting a slowdown in trade growth later this year [1][3] - Global trade is expected to face increasing resistance in the second half of 2025 due to rising uncertainties and trade restrictions, despite strong growth in the first half [1][6] - The World Bank has revised its forecast for global trade growth in 2025 down to approximately 1.8%, a significant decrease from earlier predictions [6][9] Group 2 - The WTO's global merchandise trade index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5, indicating ongoing growth, but the weak export orders signal that this momentum may not be sustainable [3][6] - The UNCTAD report anticipates a $300 billion increase in global trade this year, but warns of significant challenges in the latter half due to U.S. trade policy uncertainties and geopolitical tensions [6][8] - The U.S. trade deficit has been widening over the past four quarters, exacerbating global trade imbalances [8][9] Group 3 - The World Bank's data shows a notable reduction in trade growth forecasts, particularly for developed economies, which are expected to see trade growth at about half of previous estimates [7][9] - The rise in tariffs and trade restrictions has led to a historical peak in trade policy uncertainty, impacting global trade dynamics [6][10] - Companies are currently hesitant to make investment decisions due to the unpredictable nature of trade policies, leading to a wait-and-see approach [10]

周四亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，一度收复3320美元/盎司关口，目前交投于3317美元/盎司附近。周三金价在触及近两 周低点3282.61美元/盎司后强势反弹，最终收报3313.73美元/盎司，展现出强劲的回升动能。美国10年期国债收益率从逾 两周高位回落至4.34%，为金价反弹提供支撑；美元指数则徘徊在97.40附近，接近两周多来的高点。 | 昨收 | 3313.73 | 最高 | 3326.35 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3313.55 最低 | | 3313.38 | | 买入 | 3317.00 | 卖出 | 3317.20 | 一、基本面分析：多重因素驱动避险需求升温 贸易政策不确定性加剧 特朗普政府宣布自8月1日起对日本、韩国等14国输美产品加征25%-40%关税，并明确表示"日期不会再变"。此举直接冲击 全球供应链，尤其是电子、汽车等依赖铜的行业。日本、韩国已启动紧急预案，欧盟也在加速与美国的贸易谈判，试图避 免关税冲击。世界银行警告，若全面实施25%关税，2025年全球GDP增速将放缓0.8个百分点，贸易额下降3.2%。这种政 策不确定性显著推升市场 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices showed a rebound after hitting a near two-week low of $3282.61 per ounce, closing at $3313.38 per ounce, indicating significant recovery momentum [1][3] - The increase in gold prices is driven by rising geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainties, and U.S. fiscal expansion, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - The U.S. dollar index remains near a two-week high, exerting short-term pressure on gold, but the decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.34% partially offsets the impact of a stronger dollar [4][11] Group 2: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - The EU is accelerating trade negotiations with the U.S. to avoid tariff increases set by the Trump administration, focusing on reducing auto import tariffs and providing export credits for EU car manufacturers [5][6] - In-depth discussions on auto tariff rates and quotas have taken place, with proposals for providing tariff credits to manufacturers producing and exporting cars in the U.S., which could benefit companies like BMW and Mercedes [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate a cautious stance, with most policymakers focusing on potential inflation pressures from trade tariffs, maintaining the interest rate range at 4.25%-4.50% [8][9] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July are low, but there is an increasing probability of a first cut in September, with a cumulative cut of 50 basis points by year-end being likely [9] Group 4: U.S. Treasury Market Performance - The U.S. Treasury auction of $390 billion in 10-year notes saw a strong bid-to-cover ratio of 2.61, the highest since April, indicating reduced concerns about "selling U.S. assets" [10] - The decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.34% reflects alleviated worries about fiscal outlook, creating a favorable environment for gold price rebound [11] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Gold price fluctuations are influenced by trade negotiations, dollar movements, and Federal Reserve policies, with short-term pressures from a stronger dollar and Treasury yield volatility [12] - Investors are advised to monitor initial jobless claims data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches to gauge market sentiment changes [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, currently at $3284.47 per ounce, with a decline of 0.51% [1] - The recent rebound of the US dollar index is limiting the bullish momentum for gold, as the market is under strong resistance [1] - The extension of the tariff agreement by Trump until August 1 has provided temporary relief to the market, but the long-term macro pressures on the dollar remain significant, including rising public debt and deficit concerns [2] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes, as a dovish tone could lead to a depreciation of the dollar and support for gold prices [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are currently fluctuating, with key support at $3280 and resistance around $3335; a break below $3297 could lead to further declines [4] - If geopolitical risks escalate or negotiations fail, the dollar's support may be short-lived, leading to a renewed focus on gold [2]

Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 768.06 CNY per gram, with a slight increase of 0.31% [1] - The highest price reached today is 771.68 CNY per gram, while the lowest is 765.59 CNY per gram, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - Key resistance levels for paper gold are identified between 775 CNY per gram and 800 CNY per gram, with important support levels ranging from 760 CNY per gram to 800 CNY per gram [3] Group 2 - Australia currently faces a relatively low U.S. tariff rate of 10%, but is still impacted by specific tariffs on the steel and aluminum industries [2] - The Australian Productivity Commission's analysis suggests that proposed U.S. tariff adjustments could have a mild but positive impact on the Australian economy, potentially increasing GDP by approximately 0.37 percentage points [2] - The report warns that growing global economic uncertainty is becoming a constraint on economic activity, affecting household consumption, business investment, and trade policy stability [2]

声明中还强调，全球经济不确定性高企，尤其是美国关税政策演变或对贸易活动及企业投资决策造成冲 击。尽管澳大利亚受美国关税直接影响有限（钢铁、铝等行业除外），但生产力委员会模型显示，全球 贸易政策不确定性可能拖累澳GDP增长0.37%。国内方面，劳动力市场仍紧张，工资增速高位徘徊，叠 加生产率疲软导致单位劳动力成本高企，加剧通胀压力。 （文章来源：新华财经） 澳洲联储明确维持物价稳定与充分就业为首要目标，承认私人需求复苏步伐或慢于预期，但领先指标显 示劳动力市场存超预期韧性可能。声明特别提及货币政策将保持灵活，若国际动态对澳大利亚经济产生 实质影响，将"果断应对"。 新华财经北京7月8日电（崔凯）澳洲联储意外决定将现金利率目标维持在3.85%，未如市场预期降息25 个基点。尽管自2022年峰值以来，通胀已显著下降，并且当前利率较五个月前已下调50个基点，但鉴于 全球经济不确定性高企以及贸易政策对经济活动的潜在负面影响，委员会认为需等待更多信息以确认通 胀可持续回落至2-3%的目标区间。 澳洲联储承诺将密切关注数据变化和风险评估的发展，以指导未来政策决策。值得注意的是，本次会议 决议以6票赞成、3票反对通过，反映了 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures showed a slight increase, with the main contract on July 8 reported at 8958 CNY/kg, up 0.28% from the opening price of 8856 CNY/kg [1] - The highest price reached was 8959 CNY/kg, while the lowest was 8839 CNY/kg [1] Group 2 - FHN economist Chris Low noted that despite better-than-expected non-farm employment data for June, the overall situation is not celebratory, with only 74,000 private sector jobs added when excluding new teacher positions [2] - Low humorously suggested that setting low expectations can make poor data appear better, indicating a need to face the reality of slowing economic growth in the U.S. [2] Group 3 - Guoxin Futures commented on the uncertainty in trade policies, suggesting that silver futures may exhibit a volatile pattern due to recent tariff announcements by President Trump [3] - The report indicated that precious metals experienced wide fluctuations, with New York gold futures down 0.11% and Shanghai silver down 0.19% [3] - Looking ahead, precious metals are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to the influence of the U.S. dollar index and trade policy uncertainties, while medium to long-term support is expected from central bank purchases, technological demand, and de-dollarization trends [3]

Group 1 - The article discusses how geopolitical uncertainty and tariff policies have led to increased defensive investments by governments and companies, unexpectedly supporting the stock market [2][3] - The European Union has allowed member states to increase defense spending, with Germany planning to raise military expenditure to over 1% of GDP and invest an additional €500 billion (approximately $588 billion) in infrastructure [2] - The Stoxx Aerospace and Defense Index surged 54% in the first half of the year, marking a historic performance with a 74% increase in USD terms [2] Group 2 - There are three potential scenarios regarding the impact of geopolitical and tariff uncertainties on the economy: 1. The market may have already priced in the uncertainties, with a belief that Trump will not reimpose severe tariffs [3] 2. The uncertainties may primarily affect the value of the dollar, as foreign investors show decreased interest in U.S. assets, leading to the worst dollar performance since the Nixon administration [5] 3. The uncertainties could eventually harm the economy as CEOs delay critical decisions, which may suppress corporate investment [6][8] Group 3 - The article highlights a divide between bullish and bearish perspectives, with bulls focusing on current economic conditions and strong corporate investments, while bears emphasize the potential negative impacts of uncertainty on consumer and business sentiment [8] - Concerns are raised about inflationary pressures and growth slowdowns due to tariffs, with some analysts suggesting that now may be an appropriate time to cash out given the high valuations in the stock market [8]