Group 1 - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a slight decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] - From January to July, the industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year [1] - Among the three major sectors, mining increased by 5.0%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 3.3% in July [1] Group 2 - In July, 35 out of 41 major industries maintained year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in chemical manufacturing (7.2%), transportation equipment manufacturing (13.7%), electrical machinery (10.2%), and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (10.2%) [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw an 8.4% increase in added value, while high-tech manufacturing grew by 9.3%, both exceeding the overall industrial growth rate by 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points respectively [1] - The policy for equipment updates has stimulated demand across industries for upgrading equipment, supported by financial assistance and policy incentives [1] Group 3 - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that 188 billion yuan of special government bonds for equipment updates have been allocated, supporting approximately 8,400 projects across various sectors, leading to a total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [2] - Analysts predict that industrial production momentum may weaken in the second half of the year due to declining exports and increased domestic consumption and investment efforts [3] - The overall industrial production growth rate is expected to slow down, potentially aligning with or slightly below GDP growth, indicating a shift in economic growth drivers towards the service sector [3] Group 4 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce growth stabilization measures for key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials [4] - The ministry aims to support major industrial provinces in implementing supportive policies, fostering new growth points, and enhancing industrial transformation to stabilize industrial economic operations [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Thursday, treasury bond spot yields strengthened collectively, while treasury bond futures weakened. The central bank continued net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded slightly. Domestically, July's financial data showed structural differentiation, with the year - on - year growth rate of social financing rising for three consecutive months and credit weakening marginally. The policy effect of expanding domestic demand emerged, and foreign trade remained resilient. The Ministry of Finance launched a double - discount policy. Overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended by 90 days, and the market expected a high probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Currently, the bond market is still anchored to equity fluctuations, and the linkage between stock and bond fluctuations may further strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.12%, 0.08%, 0.02%, and 0.36% respectively. T, TF, and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 5478, 4113, and 16673 respectively, while TS decreased by 1961 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed a downward trend, except for some spreads like T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 which increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 13223, 6780, 2945, and 8709 respectively. The net short positions of T's top 20 increased by 1743, while those of TF, TS, and TL decreased by 1531, 2090, and 621 respectively [2]. 3.2 CTD Bonds - The net prices of the top two CTD bonds all decreased, such as 220010.IB decreased by 0.0853, 250007.IB decreased by 0.1408 [2]. 3.3 Active Treasury Bonds - The yields of active treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 0.45bp, 1.50bp, 1.00bp, 0.86bp, and 0.75bp respectively [2]. 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 1.97bp, Shibor overnight remained unchanged, the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 0.50bp, and Shibor 7 - day decreased by 0.80bp [2]. 3.5 LPR Rates - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.6 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 1287 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1607 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In July 2025, the incremental social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, the new RMB loans were - 500 million yuan, M2 year - on - year growth rate was 8.8%, M1 was 5.6%, and M0 was 11.8%. - 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan. - On August 18, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China will conduct the tender for the eighth - phase central treasury cash management commercial bank time deposits, with an operation volume of 120 billion yuan and a term of 1 month [2]. 3.8 Key Data to Watch - On August 14 at 20:30, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 9 (in ten thousand people). - On August 15 at 20:30, the US retail sales month - on - month rate for July [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are on the rise, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further recovery of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, resulting in a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has declined year - on - year. Although the zinc price has dropped recently and downstream enterprises are purchasing on demand at low prices, overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up the domestic zinc price. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,480 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is - 15 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,811.5 dollars/ton, down 36.5 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 209,862 lots, down 3,627 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 9,808 lots, down 94 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 17,097 tons, up 905 tons. The SHFE inventory is 65,917 tons, up 4,193 tons; the LME inventory is 78,475 tons, down 1,075 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,390 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 1.5 dollars/ton, up 3.26 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory is 99,200 tons, up 8,000 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 13.61%, down 0.4%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 13.61%, down 0.4%. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 7.71%, up 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 13.21%, unchanged [3]. Industry News - China's social financing scale increment from January to July 2025 totaled 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, and the new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan. In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, new RMB deposits were 500 billion yuan, and household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap was 3.2 percentage points, 0.5 percentage points narrower than last month. Trump said he would announce the new Fed chairperson earlier and has narrowed the candidates to three or four. The 188 billion yuan investment subsidy for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has been allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations due to policy influence. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a situation of slight increase in supply and weak demand, with accumulated industrial inventory. The option market sentiment is slightly bullish, and it is also recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage of slight contraction in supply and weak demand during the off - season, with accumulated industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,715.00 yuan/ton, down 75.00 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,240.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is 25.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; that of alumina is 9.00 yuan/ton, up 35.00 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 13,505.00 hands to 202,961.00 hands, while those of alumina increased by 69,355.00 hands to 158,619.00 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants remained unchanged at 14,225.00 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,525.00 tons to 478,625.00 tons. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,608.50 US dollars/ton, down 14.00 US dollars [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,140.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is 55.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum SHFE inventory decreased by 3,913.00 tons to 113,614.00 tons, and the Shanghai aluminum SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,830.00 tons to 57,946.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,710.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,820.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 500.00 yuan to 210.00 yuan/ton, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 25.00 yuan to - 5.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium is 20.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium is - 4.91 US dollars/ton, down 0.38 US dollars [2]. - The basis of alumina decreased by 10.00 yuan to - 20.00 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the national alumina operating rate is 84.01%, up 1.52 percentage points; the total alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,300.00 yuan/ton, up 100.00 yuan; that in Shandong metal scrap is 15,900.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export volume is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. - The alumina export volume is 17.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the import volume is 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 53.20 million tons, up 2.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume is 192,314.50 tons, down 30,781.00 tons; the export volume is 19,570.72 tons, down 12,523.35 tons [2]. - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 97.78%, up 0.10 percentage points [2]. - The aluminum product production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.20 million tons, up 5.20 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.58 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the National Real Estate Prosperity Index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. - The aluminum alloy production is 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 7.85%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.25%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money option is 9.27%, up 0.0028 percentage points; the call - put ratio is 1.16, down 0.0437 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September. The US Treasury debt has exceeded $37 trillion for the first time [2]. - In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9% [2]. - Four departments including the central bank explained two discount policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal and financial cooperation to boost consumption. After the policy expires, an effect evaluation will be carried out [2]. - In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [2].

记者了解到，2025年以来，国家发展改革委会同有关部门和各地方优化设备更新支持范围，完善项目申 报审核标准，严格做好项目筛选把关，推动重点领域实施设备更新。下达完毕的1880亿元投资补助资金 用于支持工业、用能设备、能源电力、交通运输、物流、环境基础设施、教育、文旅、医疗、住宅老旧 电梯、电子信息、设施农业、粮油加工、安全生产、回收循环利用等领域约8400个项目，带动总投资超 过1万亿元。 今年1880亿元超长期特别国债支持设备更新投资补助资金下达完毕 记者13日从国家发展改革委获悉，2025年超长期特别国债支持设备更新的1880亿元投资补助资金已于近 期下达完毕。 记者：魏弘毅、魏玉坤 来源：新华网 下一步，国家发展改革委将按照党中央、国务院决策部署，会同各有关方面持续加强统筹协调，扎实推 进项目建设，推动尽快形成更多实物工作量，严格项目和资金闭环管理，确保中央资金用到实处，更好 发挥"两新"政策效能。 转自：新华社 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - As of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, up from 8.3% at the end of June [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.06 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] - In the first seven months, a net cash injection of 465.1 billion yuan was recorded [1] Group 2: Lending and Investment - In the first seven months, new RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 680.7 billion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 11.63 trillion yuan [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission allocated 188 billion yuan in special bonds to support equipment upgrades, which is expected to drive total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - The recent market for soybean meal and oil has faced multiple uncertainties, prompting related entities to enhance investor education and risk prevention [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised upward its global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, while lowering the demand growth forecast for the same years [1] - As of August 12, domestic asphalt companies reported a 3.8% decrease in shipment volume week-on-week, while refinery capacity utilization and weekly output increased [1] - The price of lithium carbonate rose by 3,000 yuan per ton compared to the previous working day, affecting both battery-grade and industrial-grade prices [1] - The silicon industry association indicated that prices in the polysilicon market are expected to stabilize [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 188 billion yuan in special bonds to support equipment upgrades across various sectors, leading to a total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The funding will support approximately 8,400 projects in diverse fields including industrial equipment, energy, transportation, logistics, environmental infrastructure, education, cultural tourism, healthcare, residential elevators, electronic information, facility agriculture, grain and oil processing, safety production, and recycling [1]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China maintained a stable operation in July, supported by policies such as the trade-in program and the initial progress in addressing "involution" competition [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In July, automotive production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, with month-on-month declines of 7.3% and 10.7%, but year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7% [1] - From January to July, automotive production and sales totaled 18.235 million and 18.269 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.7% and 12% [1] - The growth rates for production and sales in the first seven months expanded by 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - In July, NEV production and sales reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, with year-on-year growth of 26.3% and 27.4%, accounting for 48.7% of total new car sales [1] - Sales of pure electric vehicles in July were 811,000 units, up 47.1% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid vehicle sales were 451,000 units, a 2.8% increase [2] - NEV exports were notable, with 225,000 units exported in July, a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 120% [2] Group 3: Export Dynamics - NEVs have become the main driver of automotive export growth, with traditional fuel vehicle exports declining [3] - In July, traditional fuel vehicle exports were 350,000 units, down 9.6% month-on-month and 4.3% year-on-year [3] - From January to July, traditional fuel vehicle exports totaled 2.373 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7% [3] Group 4: Brand Performance - In July, Chinese brand passenger car sales reached 1.604 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%, with a market share of 70.1%, up 3.8 percentage points from the previous year [4] - Chery and BYD were among the top exporters, with Chery exporting 119,000 units (up 31.9%) and BYD exporting 81,000 units (up 160%) in July [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The automotive industry is expected to maintain a stable operation in the coming months, supported by government policies such as the third batch of long-term special bonds for trade-in programs [5] - The government plans to ensure that funds are used effectively to boost consumer confidence and stimulate automotive consumption through the end of the year [5]

"相比此前特别国债在2至3个月内集中发行的安排，更加平缓的发行有利于逐步推进项目落地，且避免 与一般国债、地方政府债券的发行形成叠加。"东吴证券固定收益首席分析师李勇表示。 财政部网站5月13日公布2024年一般国债、超长期特别国债发行有关安排。其中，超长期特别国债分为 20年期、30年期和50年期品种，均按半年付息。5月17日，财政部将公开招标发行2024年首只超长期特 别国债，面值总额400亿元，票面利率通过竞争性招标确定。 专家认为，本轮超长期特别国债期限较长，有利于增强对长期限项目的保障能力，同时发行节奏较为平 缓，可避免集中发行给资金面造成阶段性压力。从政策效果看，超长期特别国债既可以拉动投资和消 费，又能筑牢长期高质量发展的基础。 发行计划出炉 根据发行安排，今年超长期特别国债将从5月17日首发到11月中旬发行完毕，20年期、30年期和50年期 品种分别发行7只、12只和3只。 本轮特别国债发行期限明显更长。从此前历次特别国债的发行期限上看，短的只有3年，5至10年的相对 集中一些，最长的为30年。 广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家连平表示，20年至50年特别国债覆盖了2030年、2035年、 ...

本报记者 韩 昱 5月13日，财政部公布2024年一般国债、超长期特别国债发行有关安排。2024年超长期特别国债发行安 排显示，超长期特别国债期限包括20年期、30年期、50年期，均为按半年付息。其中，30年期将最先在 5月17日发行。 从市场流动性角度看，陈宇恒认为，超长期特别国债发行将带来中长期流动性需求相应增加，在国债发 行阶段，央行或考虑实施降准，营造适宜的流动性环境。 冯琳表示，发行期限包括20年期、30年期和50年期，且从发行次数看，以30年期为主，符合市场预期。 超长期特别国债的发行，可以更好匹配长期限项目融资需求、提升资金使用效率，增强财政对长期限项 目的资金保障能力。 连平也认为，从期限来看，20年至50年期限超长期特别国债，不仅能够为建设周期长、投资回报慢的重 大项目和重大工程等提供充裕的超长期资金，同时超长久期还摊薄了国债的付息压力。 （责任编辑：关婧） 今年《政府工作报告》提出，"为系统解决强国建设、民族复兴进程中一些重大项目建设的资金问题， 从今年开始拟连续几年发行超长期特别国债，专项用于国家重大战略实施和重点领域安全能力建设，今 年先发行1万亿元"。4月30日召开的中共中央政治局会 ...