Economic Data Release - China will release several important economic data this week, including June CPI, June PPI, July foreign exchange reserves, and July social financing data [1] - The U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" suspension period is about to end, and the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [1] Stock Market Developments - This week, a total of 50 stocks will have their lock-up shares released, with a total market value of approximately 37.619 billion yuan. The top three stocks by market value of released shares are Lingyun Guang (5.952 billion yuan), Haohua Technology (4.263 billion yuan), and Weike Technology (3.636 billion yuan) [2] Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China is seeking public opinion on the draft business rules for the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which includes detailed processes for account management, funding, and settlement [4] - The Ministry of Finance has announced measures regarding government procurement of medical devices imported from the EU, requiring that non-EU companies' products must not exceed 50% of the total contract amount for certain procurement projects [5] Aviation Industry Initiatives - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has established a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy, focusing on the development and regulation of these sectors [6] Real Estate Market Stability - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market and encourages local governments to implement precise policies to promote healthy development [7] Electricity Demand Surge - China's electricity load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, driven by high temperatures, marking an increase of approximately 200 million kilowatts from the end of June and nearly 150 million kilowatts year-on-year [8] Oil Production Increase - Eight major oil-producing countries have decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, adjusting their output based on current market conditions [9] New Tariffs Announcement - U.S. President Trump announced that new tariffs will likely be implemented starting August 1, with rates potentially reaching up to 70% [10] Stock Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a strong oscillation, with a focus on industry logic as half-year reports approach. High-dividend blue-chip companies are anticipated to gain market favor [14] - The market is cautiously optimistic for July, with expectations for steady upward movement in the index amid various influencing factors [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance capital is actively increasing its stake in listed companies, with a total of 19 instances of stake increases involving 15 companies reported by July 3, 2025, nearing the total of 20 for the entire year of 2024 [5][6]. Group 1: Recent Stake Increases - On July 3, 2025, Xintai Life Insurance acquired 345 million shares of Hualing Steel, representing 5% of the company's total share capital, triggering a stake increase notification [1][2]. - Li'an Life Insurance announced on July 3, 2025, that it increased its stake in Jiangnan Water by purchasing 1.1 million shares, bringing its total holdings to approximately 47 million shares, or 5.03% of the company [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance of Companies - Hualing Steel reported a revenue of 30.075 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a decrease of 18.52% year-on-year, while its net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 43.55% to 562 million yuan [2]. - Jiangnan Water achieved a revenue of 294 million yuan in Q1 2025, a slight decrease of 0.43%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 95 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.13% [3]. Group 3: Trends in Insurance Capital - The insurance sector has seen a significant increase in stake acquisitions, with a focus on companies in banking, environmental protection, transportation, and public utilities, characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields [5][6]. - The current low-interest-rate environment and changes in accounting standards are driving insurance capital to pursue long-term stable investment returns through stake increases in listed companies [6][7]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - Recent regulatory changes have allowed insurance companies to increase their equity asset allocation, potentially bringing an additional 1.5 trillion yuan into the market [8]. - Insurance companies are encouraged to focus on long-term investments in sectors such as technology and traditional industries with stable earnings and reasonable valuations [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a strong performance in certain sectors such as banking, electricity, chemical pharmaceuticals, and fiberglass, while software development, internet services, batteries, and auto parts lagged behind [1] - Long-term capital inflow into the market is accelerating, with a steady increase in ETF size and continuous inflow of insurance funds, providing significant support [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in June introduces uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, which could significantly boost global risk appetite if clear signals are released [1] Group 2 - The A-share market exhibited a clear divergence in style, with strong performance in dividend stocks despite adjustments in previously strong sectors like solid-state batteries, stablecoins, and military industry [2] - The market is expected to continue its oscillation in the short term, with structural opportunities in specific themes, while caution is advised against chasing high-performing sectors and stocks [2] - The medium-term outlook for the A-share market appears positive, with expectations of continued upward trends supported by financial policies for high-quality development and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that regulatory changes are expected to lead to a significant increase in insurance capital allocation to equity assets, with an estimated additional funding of over 400 billion yuan by 2025 [1] Group 2 - In April, the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice to relax the restrictions on the proportion of equity assets that insurance companies with sufficient solvency can allocate [1] - Under the ongoing regulatory guidance, insurance funds are accelerating their entry into the stock market by establishing private equity investment funds [1] - A fund manager from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) estimates that if the balance of insurance fund utilization grows by 5% by 2025, with 25% allocated to equity assets, approximately 412.5 billion yuan will be available for equity asset allocation [1]

编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.06.20） 宏观及策略研究 科创板改革获推进，市场延续窄幅震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 晨会纪要（2025/06/20） 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/06/20） 宏观及策略研究 科创板改革获推进，市场延续窄幅震荡——A 股市场投资策略周报 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（6 月 13 日-6 月 19 日），重要指数纷纷收跌；其中，上证综指收跌 1.19%，创业板指收跌 1.95%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 1.26%，中证 500 收跌 2.12%。成交量方面小幅缩量，两市统计区间内成交 6.33 万亿元，日均成交额达到 1.27 万亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent transfer of shares from Commonwealth Bank of Australia to New China Life Insurance marks a significant shift in the shareholder structure of Hangzhou Bank, with New China Life now holding over 5% of the bank's shares, positioning itself as the fourth largest shareholder [1][4]. Group 1: Shareholder Changes - Commonwealth Bank of Australia has completely divested its stake in Hangzhou Bank, transferring 330 million shares to New China Life Insurance, which now holds a total of 5.09% of the bank's shares [1][2]. - The transaction price of 13.1 yuan per share for New China Life is significantly lower than Hangzhou Bank's closing price of 16.56 yuan on June 16, indicating a strategic long-term investment rather than a short-term profit [2][12]. - New China Life's acquisition aligns with its strategy to enhance its long-term investment portfolio and optimize its asset structure amid increasing competition for investment opportunities [2][16]. Group 2: Strategic Intentions - New China Life's investment in Hangzhou Bank is not only aimed at increasing dividend assets but also at leveraging the bank's extensive network in the Yangtze River Delta region to expand its market presence [3][24]. - The bank has established a comprehensive service network in Zhejiang province, which is crucial for New China Life as it seeks to tap into the region's high growth potential [3][24]. - The collaboration between New China Life and Hangzhou Bank could lead to enhanced synergies in various business areas, particularly in insurance and banking services [4][26]. Group 3: Historical Context and Performance - Commonwealth Bank of Australia has been a shareholder in Hangzhou Bank for 20 years, witnessing significant growth in the bank's asset size from under 50 billion yuan to over 2.11 trillion yuan by the end of 2024 [7][10]. - The bank's net profit growth of 18.07% in 2024, alongside stable asset quality metrics, reflects its resilience in a challenging market environment [7][8]. - The exit of Commonwealth Bank is part of a broader trend where foreign banks are reducing their stakes in Chinese financial institutions due to rising compliance costs and a strategic focus on domestic markets [10][11]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The current environment of asset scarcity and regulatory encouragement for insurance capital to enter the market has led to a growing preference among insurance companies for long-term dividend assets [17][19]. - New accounting standards have facilitated this trend, allowing insurance firms to classify bank stocks as long-term investments, which aligns with New China Life's strategy to enhance its long-term equity investment base [18][19]. - New China Life's OCI account for equity investments has seen substantial growth, indicating a strategic shift towards high-dividend assets [19].

Group 1 - Recent activities of insurance capital include participation in long-term investment reforms and significant investments in private equity funds [1] - The China Insurance Industry Association reported that seven insurance companies executed 15 equity stakes by the end of May, indicating a strong focus on banking and public utilities [1] - The central financial authorities aim for large state-owned insurance companies to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-share investments starting in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Regulatory adjustments include a 10% reduction in risk factors for stock investments, encouraging insurance companies to increase market participation [2] - Industry experts emphasize the importance of long-term equity investments and the need for insurance capital to focus on high-dividend assets and innovative financial tools [2] - A proposed "dumbbell" asset allocation strategy suggests balancing stable dividend assets with high-growth assets while using convertible bonds and preferred stocks as buffers [3] Group 3 - The cautious approach of insurance companies towards equity investments is primarily due to concerns over the volatility of fair value [3] - Recommendations for improving the investment environment include optimizing assessment mechanisms and implementing long-term performance evaluation systems [3] - Key challenges for insurance capital include addressing asset scarcity, adapting accounting standards, and reforming assessment mechanisms [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Insurance has acquired a 5.09% stake in Hangzhou Bank, becoming its fourth-largest shareholder, reflecting a trend of insurance companies increasing investments in high-dividend bank stocks in 2025 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Xinhua Insurance purchased 330 million shares of Hangzhou Bank from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia at a price of 13.095 yuan per share, totaling approximately 4.317 billion yuan [2]. - The transaction was initiated in January 2025 and completed with the approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration [2][3]. - Following the acquisition, Xinhua Insurance holds a total of 363 million shares in Hangzhou Bank, solidifying its position as a significant stakeholder [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - In 2025, insurance companies have made 15 equity acquisitions, with a notable focus on bank stocks, indicating a strategic shift towards high-dividend assets [4][5]. - The preference for bank stocks is attributed to declining long-term interest rates and the need for asset reallocation, as insurance companies seek stable dividend returns [5][6]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory initiatives have encouraged insurance funds to invest in the capital market, aiming to enhance the stability and proportion of insurance capital in A-shares [7][8]. - The government has introduced policies to facilitate long-term investments by insurance companies, including lowering risk factors for stock investments and promoting a "long money, long investment" strategy [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the performance pressure in Q2 is limited, with expectations for improved new business performance and further reductions in the cost of new liabilities due to anticipated interest rate cuts in Q3 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions and Fund Flows - A-share listed insurance companies are significantly underrepresented compared to the CSI 300 index, with public fund regulations expected to drive incremental capital inflows [1] - As of the end of Q1, the allocation of equity funds in the non-bank sector is underweight by 9.68% compared to the CSI 300 index, second only to banks [1] Group 2: New Liability Costs and Product Transformation - The cost of new liabilities has decreased significantly, with some insurance companies optimizing their existing liability costs [2] - The NBV (New Business Value) and VIF (Value of In-Force) yield performances for major insurers show a year-on-year decline, indicating effective risk management of interest spread losses [2] - The transformation of participating insurance products has exceeded expectations, with major insurers elevating this strategy to a strategic level [3] Group 3: Insurance Capital Market Participation - The implementation plan for promoting long-term capital market participation highlights the role of insurance capital as a key player, with sustainable growth in insurance fund utilization expected [4] - The upper limit for equity allocation for insurance capital has been unexpectedly relaxed, allowing for a total equity allocation scale of 9.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 505.5 billion yuan from previous regulations [4] - The reduction of investment risk factors for stock investments further opens up the equity allocation limits for insurance capital [4]

Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to attract incremental capital inflows due to significant underweighting compared to the CSI 300 index, driven by new public fund regulations [4][12][13] - The cost of new liabilities has significantly improved, with the transformation of participating insurance progressing beyond expectations, indicating effective cost control measures [4][25][29] - Insurance capital is accelerating its market entry, supported by a series of policies aimed at addressing existing barriers, enhancing the sustainability of insurance fund utilization [4][22][41] Funding Aspect - The public fund regulations are anticipated to lead to increased capital inflows into the insurance sector, which is currently underweighted compared to the CSI 300 index by 9.68% [11][12] - The insurance sector's weight in public funds is expected to gradually correct, with major insurers like Ping An and China Life showing significant underweighting [4][12][13] Liability Aspect - The new liability cost has decreased significantly, with the NBV breakeven yield for major insurers showing improvements: Ping An at 2.42%, China Life at 2.43%, and China Pacific at 2.60% [25][29] - The transformation of participating insurance is progressing well, with major insurers increasing their focus on this product type, indicating a strategic shift in product offerings [4][29] Asset Aspect - Insurance capital is entering the market more rapidly, with policies in place to facilitate this process, including adjustments to the equity investment limits for insurance funds [4][22][41] - The relaxation of investment risk factors for insurance capital is expected to enhance the equity allocation limits, allowing for greater investment in the stock market [4][22] Investment Analysis - The insurance sector is positioned to outperform the market, with policy support and performance recovery being key highlights [7][10] - The sector's performance has been bolstered by favorable regulatory changes and improved earnings, with the insurance index outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.6 percentage points year-to-date [7][10]