点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 报告摘要 5月A股港股市场有所回暖 5月A股主要指数涨跌分化，行业端涨多跌少。受风险偏好波动等因素影响，5月（截至27日），A股主要指数 涨跌出现分化，其中万得全A涨幅最大，而科创50跌幅最大。行业端涨多跌少，轻工制造、综合、纺织服饰等 行业表现较好，而电子、计算机、房地产、社会服务等行业表现相对较差。 5月港股市场震荡上行。5月受海外扰动缓和、国内风险偏好回暖等因素影响，港股市场整体走势震荡上行。截 至2025年5月27日，恒生香港35、恒生指数、恒生综合指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒生科技的涨幅分别为 7.6%、5.7%、5.3%、4.9%、1.9%。 A股观点：继续关注三类资产 政策的持续支持以及中长期资金积极流入背景下， A股市场有望震荡上行。当前A股市场的估值处于2010年以 来的均值附近，而随着政策的积极发力，中长期资金带来的增量资金或将持续流入市场，对资本市场形成托 底，A股市场有望震荡上行。 配置方向上，关注三类资产。方向一：稳定类资产，如高股息、黄金。稳定类资产能够在市场面临不确定时提 供确定性。方向二：产业链自主可控。在"双循环"新发展格局和全球产业链重构的双重驱 ...

消息面上，工业和信息化部近期实施制造业重大技术改造升级和大规模设备更新工程，推动传统产业升 级，预计将撬动超5万亿元市场。国家税务总局数据显示，一季度全国企业采购机械设备金额同比增长 11%，延续较快增长势头。 注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变 动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩 的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 华龙证券指出，机械设备行业呈现结构性复苏态势。2025年4月挖机销量同比增长17.6%，其中国内销 量增长16.4%，出口增长19.3%，1-4月累计销量同比增长21.4%。内需受益于集中换新周期、地产政策 宽松及国家换新政策催化；海外市场受基建需求带动持续增长。自动化设备领域，4月工业机器人产量 同比大增51.5%，主要因"以旧换新"政策释放设备更新需求，叠加贷款贴息降低企业升级成本，行业或 迎困境反转。制造业PMI虽回落至49%，但关税扰动下政府有望加码"两新"、"两重"项目支持，为机床 工具等通用设备带来增量需求。机械行业在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major brokerages are optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of 2025, anticipating a structural bull market driven by multiple policy benefits and industrial upgrades [1][2]. Market Outlook - Brokerages such as Industrial Securities, CITIC Securities, and Everbright Securities predict a "structural bull" market for the capital market in the second half of 2025 [2]. - Industrial Securities' chief strategist Zhang Yidong believes that A-shares will exhibit characteristics of "stable index, structural bull" in the long term, highlighting the attractive valuation of Chinese assets [2]. - CITIC Securities' chief A-share strategist Qiu Xiang expects a bull market for equity assets starting from Q4 2025, with a significant shift in market style towards core assets [2]. - Everbright Securities' chief strategist Zhang Yusheng notes that the gradual recovery of fundamentals, along with macro and micro liquidity, will drive market growth, leading to a structural bull market [2][3]. Sector Preferences - Investment opportunities in the second half of the year should focus on four key areas according to Industrial Securities' chief strategist Zhang Qiyao: technology trends marked by DeepSeek, domestic service consumption, dividend assets, and sectors like gold and military [4]. - Qiu Xiang emphasizes the importance of increasing allocations to Hong Kong stocks and focusing on leading companies in emerging and traditional industries [4]. - Open Source Securities' chief strategist Wei Jixing suggests five focus areas: domestic consumption, technology growth in AI and robotics, industries with improved costs, sectors benefiting from overseas opportunities, and stable dividend stocks [4]. - Li Chao from Zheshang Securities advocates for a focus on dividend-related sectors and technology, anticipating adjustments in institutional allocation due to new public fund regulations [4].

Group 1 - A-shares indices opened high and showed strong performance in computing power concepts, with the Computer ETF (159998) rising by 2.36% and trading volume exceeding 500 million yuan [1][2] - The Computer ETF (159998) has seen a continuous net inflow of funds for 9 days, accumulating over 125 million yuan, and its latest scale reached 2.791 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF in its category [2] - The Computer ETF tracks the CSI Computer Index, which includes stocks from companies involved in information technology services, application software, system software, and computer hardware, with top holdings including Hikvision and iFlytek [2] Group 2 - Nvidia reported a 69% year-on-year revenue growth in its first fiscal quarter, reaching 44.1 billion USD, exceeding market expectations [3] - The U.S. International Trade Court blocked President Trump's tariff policy, which could impact the semiconductor market dynamics [3] - Domestic chip manufacturers are accelerating breakthroughs in performance and capacity, indicating significant potential for domestic AI chip market growth [3][4] Group 3 - Domestic and international computing power demand is expected to resonate positively, with infrastructure demand remaining strong, particularly for domestic computing power and the entire AIDC industry chain [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the resurgence of interest in the AI and domestic innovation sectors, driven by Nvidia's strong performance and the upgrade of DeepSeek-R1, particularly focusing on national information security [1] - The Xinchang ETF fund (562030) has seen a significant increase, with a mid-day price surge of over 2%, ranking among the top ten ETF gains in the market [1] - The fund has experienced continuous net inflows for ten consecutive days, totaling over 100 million yuan, likely catalyzed by the merger of Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang [1] Group 2 - The Xinchang sector is viewed as having high investment value due to strong policy support, growing market demand, and technological advancements [3] - Policy support is substantial, with expectations that technological self-reliance will be the main theme of the tech industry by 2025, driving the development of domestic software and hardware [3] - Market demand is robust, with both government and industry sectors driving the need for domestic innovation, leading to a projected market growth rate of 10.84% in 2025 and 26.82% in 2026, reaching a market size of 26,559 billion yuan by 2026 [3][4] Group 3 - The industry is experiencing a recovery in prosperity, supported by the release of secure and reliable results for core products like CPUs, operating systems, and databases, indicating an improvement in the overall strength of Xinchang products [4] - External pressures are pushing for greater self-sufficiency in technology, accelerating the development of the Xinchang industry [4] Group 4 - The Xinchang ETF fund (562030) and its linked funds are designed to passively track the CSI Xinchang Index, which encompasses key segments of the Xinchang industry, including basic hardware, software, and information security [6] - The index is characterized by high growth and elasticity, making it a focal point for investment in the current climate [7] - Four key investment logics are emphasized: geopolitical tensions increasing the need for self-sufficiency, government procurement likely to rebound, breakthroughs in technology by domestic firms, and the timing of procurement standards becoming more refined [7]

Core Viewpoint - The newly approved floating rate fund, Dachen Zhi Zhen Return Mixed Fund, will start issuing on June 3, with a focus on active equity investment and managed by Du Cong, who has demonstrated strong performance in technology growth investments [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Overview - The Dachen Zhi Zhen Return Mixed Fund is set to be issued on June 3, with Du Cong as the proposed fund manager and ICBC as the custodian [1]. - Dachen Fund is known for its active equity investment capabilities, with notable fund managers like Xu Yan, Liu Xu, and Han Chuang [1]. - Du Cong has shown a significant excess return of 18.7% relative to the performance benchmark since managing Dachen Growth Progress Fund [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Du Cong's investment framework focuses on identifying "key variables" to determine investment weight through expected return rates and curvature [2]. - The investment process consists of two main steps: assessing long-term performance potential and understanding company quality and future valuation [2]. - "Curvature" is a key concept in Du Cong's strategy, representing the acceleration of growth, which influences company pricing during market turning points [2]. Group 3: Performance Metrics - Since Du Cong took over Dachen Growth Progress Fund, it has achieved a cumulative return of 20.74%, ranking in the top 15% of its category [3]. - The fund's net asset value curve has shown steep growth, indicating strong performance during various bull markets in the technology sector [3]. - The fund's turnover rate reached 1,076.12%, reflecting Du Cong's active management and responsiveness to market changes [3]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - Du Cong highlighted several investment opportunities in the 2024 annual report, including AI computing power, domestic substitution industries, and the Apple supply chain [6][7]. - The fund achieved a quarterly return of 11.2% in Q1 2025, with an excess return of 8.27% relative to its benchmark [6]. - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are seen as a catalyst for investment opportunities in semiconductor and software sectors [6].

Group 1 - A-shares indices opened high and rose, with AI ETF (512930) increasing by 1.57% and trading volume exceeding 24 million yuan [1] - Key stocks in AI ETF include XinYiSheng, QianFang Technology, ZhongJi XuChuang, SiWei TuXin, and ChipOn [1] - AI ETF closely tracks the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index, with Cambricon Technologies as the largest constituent [1] Group 2 - Nvidia reported Q1 FY2026 earnings with a 69% year-over-year revenue increase to $44.1 billion, surpassing market expectations [2] - Net profit was $18.775 billion, slightly below market expectations of $20.767 billion, with adjusted EPS at $0.96, above the expected $0.93 [2] - GuoXin Securities highlights a recovery in tech sentiment, focusing on semiconductor autonomy and edge SoC innovation, anticipating a valuation expansion in the electronics sector by 2025 [2]

Global Economic Outlook - Citigroup economists predict that global economic growth will slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 due to the impact of tariffs, with the full effects expected to manifest in the second half of this year [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that inflation caused by tariffs will likely not persist for long, as the U.S. economy is entering a weaker state compared to the inflationary periods of 2021 and 2022 [1] - John Hardy from Saxo Bank warns that the U.S. Treasury should monitor risks in the Japanese government bond market, as Japan's debt situation is becoming more severe [1] Japanese Yen and Bond Market - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that the depreciation of the yen may still have room to continue, despite recent declines in long-term Japanese government bond yields [2] - Analysts from Bank of America indicate that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to address the supply-demand imbalance in the long-term bond market, continuing to reduce bond purchases until March 2026 [3] - State Street Global Advisors describes the challenges in the Japanese bond market as "technical" rather than "structural," suggesting that these issues can be resolved through adjustments in issuance [4] Chinese Aviation and Energy Sector - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) reports that the significant drop in oil prices this year is expected to improve the cost structure for airlines, with a solid foundation for the aviation cycle to start [5] - CICC also highlights opportunities in the diesel generator sets and large-bore engines used in data centers, driven by high demand for AI infrastructure [6] Consumer Goods and Pet Industry - Huatai Securities emphasizes the potential for recovery in the consumer sector, particularly in the food and beverage industry, as consumption trends improve [7] - Huaxi Securities projects that China's pet industry could reach a market size of 478.7 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% from 2024 to 2030 [8] Investment Strategies in Materials and Energy - CITIC Securities outlines three investment themes in the materials sector, focusing on policy-driven themes, high certainty growth from industry prosperity, and innovation in products and technologies [9] - The same report suggests that the second half of 2025 will see a complex price trend in commodities due to U.S. tariff policies, recommending a focus on "hedging" and "supply disruptions" [10] Economic Projections - CITIC Securities anticipates a potential bull market for Chinese equity assets starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by synchronized economic and policy cycles across major economies [11] - The firm also predicts that the economic landscape will exhibit characteristics of strong production, recovering investment, stable consumption, and resilient exports [12]

Core Insights - The article discusses the leading domestic valve brands in China for various industries, highlighting their market positions, technological advancements, and future trends. Group 1: Leading Brands and Market Position - Suzhou Neway Valve is recognized as a global benchmark for deep-sea valve technology, with 42% of its revenue coming from overseas and a production capacity exceeding 600,000 units per year [11][12] - China Nuclear Su Valve Technology is the only domestic company with full qualifications for nuclear-grade valves, achieving over 90% localization in nuclear power valves and securing over 1.5 billion yuan in nuclear power orders [12][13] - Shanghai Qizhong Valve holds a 53% market share in nuclear-grade butterfly valves, with a 180% annual increase in orders for new energy lithium battery valves [14][15] Group 2: Industry Trends and Innovations - The trend towards domestic substitution is accelerating, particularly in high-end fields such as semiconductor special gas valves and ultra-high pressure hydrogen valves, with leading companies investing over 8% of their revenue in R&D [32] - Green technology is expected to dominate municipal and energy project tenders, with low-carbon valves and smart water management solutions leading the way [33] - The global competition is intensifying, driven by infrastructure demands in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with China's valve export expected to exceed 12 billion USD by 2025 [34]

转自：大话芯片 加入"中国IC独角兽联盟"，请点击进入 投稿 、 商务合作 请微信 dolphinjetta 是说芯语，欢迎关注分享 2025年5月28日，星期三 —— 据业内消息来源称，德国西门子公司的电子设计自动化（EDA）部门或 将暂停对中国大陆地区的支持与服务。据称，这一举措是基于美国商务部工业安全局（BIS）的通知， 要求西门子与其在中国大陆的客户"脱钩"。西门子公司表示正在等待BIS进一步澄清细节，而其部分技 术类网站已对中国区用户禁止访问。 与此同时，其他两大EDA供应商Synopsys（SNPS）和Cadence Design Systems（Cadence）也处于观望状 态，并计划在美国官方上班后根据最新的政策指导采取行动。这表明，全球三大EDA工具供应商可能 同时面临针对中国大陆市场的服务限制。 若上述情况属实，对于依赖进口EDA工具进行芯片设计的中国大陆企业而言，将是一次重大挑战。缺 乏必要的技术支持可能会导致研发进程受阻，进而对整个半导体产业链造成影响。 目前，中国及国际业界正密切关注此事件的发展，以及它对全球半导体供应链可能产生的连锁反应。面 对这样的不确定性，中国政府及本土企业正加 ...