市场和经济学家预计，英国央行会将基准利率维持在4%，放缓自2024年8月以来每季度一次的降息节奏。半小时后，行 长贝利将主持新闻发布会。 英国央行将于北京时间周四晚8点公布利率决议，这很可能是一场势均力敌的决策，外界普遍预计该央行将维持利率不 变，从而结束此前连续每个季度降息的步伐。 由于对高企的通胀以及工党政府将于11月26日公布的关键秋季预算仍存担忧，货币政策委员会（MPC）预计将采取谨慎 态度。然而，鉴于近期数据显示价格压力有所缓解且经济正在降温，贝利可能会保留在圣诞节前采取行动的希望，他被 视为这个意见分歧的委员会中的关键摇摆票。 作为央行沟通机制改革的一部分，英国央行还将推出全新版式的《货币政策报告》和会议纪要，届时九名货币政策委员 会的决策者将首次分别阐述自己的观点。 投票分歧 经济学家预计这将是一场票数接近的决议，调查显示，最普遍的预测结果是6比3的分歧。在42位受访者中，只有8位预测 会出现意外的25个基点降息。 委员会内部分歧严重，一方是以首席经济学家皮尔为代表的鹰派，他们仍然担心几乎是其2%目标两倍的粘性通胀；另一 方则是泰勒为代表的鸽派，他们更侧重于正在放缓的经济和疲软的劳动力需求，预计 ...

正如上图显示，随着英国央行步入降息周期，MPC委员们立场日益分歧，本次投票或将出现重大分歧。 智通财经APP获悉，利率期货市场以及经济学家们普遍预计，英国央行将在当地时间周四维持基准利率不变，这一注 定将存在激烈争论的潜在决定将终结此前英国央行连续按季度降息的走势。 市场和经济学家们预计，英国央行周四(北京时间周四晚间)将把基准利率保持在4%不变，从而放缓自2024年8月以来 每季度一次的渐进式降息步伐。英国央行将于伦敦时间中午12点公布这一最新的利率决定，半小时后英国央行行长安 德鲁·贝利(Andrew Bailey)将召开新闻发布会。 在通胀高企的担忧以及工党政府11月26日极为关键的秋季预算声明即将到来之际，英国央行货币政策委员会(MPC)预 计将采取较为谨慎的货币政策立场。然而，在最新数据显示英国物价压力出现缓解迹象且经济有所降温之后，贝利可 能会保留在圣诞节前采取降息行动的希望。他被视为这一出现剧烈分歧的MPC委员会中的关键摇摆票。 在央行与市场沟通方式的重大调整中，英国央行还将推出新版本的《货币政策报告》以及会议纪要，九名MPC委员 将首次分别阐述各自观点。 经济学家预计这将是一场胶着的决议，在机 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 15%, aligning with market expectations and reflecting ongoing economic uncertainties [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Context - A survey of 40 economists indicated a consensus that the Central Bank would keep the rate unchanged at 15% [4]. - The monetary policy committee highlighted that the global environment remains uncertain due to U.S. economic policies and geopolitical tensions, necessitating caution for emerging markets [4][5]. - Domestic economic growth is expected to slow, although the labor market remains strong [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Recent data shows improvements in overall and core inflation indicators, yet they still exceed the inflation target [4]. - The committee noted that inflation expectations are unanchored, and high inflation forecasts persist, requiring a prolonged period of tight monetary policy to ensure inflation converges to target levels [5]. - The decision to maintain the Selic rate at 15% is deemed consistent with strategies aimed at stabilizing inflation while also smoothing economic fluctuations and promoting full employment [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The monetary policy committee remains vigilant and may adjust future monetary policy steps, including potentially resuming the rate hike cycle if deemed appropriate [5]. - Economists project Brazil's GDP growth for 2026 to be 1.78%, slightly down from a previous estimate of 1.80% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][2][3] Core View of the Report - The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond purchases is generally neutral for the bond market. In the short term, it helps accelerate the stabilization of the bond market; in the medium term, it is beneficial for the market to form an expectation of an "upper limit" on interest rates; in the long term, it better coordinates with fiscal policy tools. However, the market lacks positive factors for a significant decline in interest rates [2][3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Event - On November 4, 2025, the People's Bank of China announced that the net investment in open - market Treasury bond transactions in October was 20 billion yuan [3][4][5] Analysis of Net Investment Scale - The 20 - billion - yuan net investment scale is not large, but it is the result of operations in the last few trading days of October. The central bank's average monthly net purchase of Treasury bonds from August to December last year was 200 billion yuan, so the significance of the 20 - billion - yuan net purchase should not be underestimated [3][5] Motivation for Resuming Treasury Bond Purchases - The central bank emphasized the supply - demand relationship when resuming Treasury bond purchases. It chose October instead of September, probably to coordinate with fiscal policy rather than to inject liquidity, and the operation mode is likely to assist the market in digesting the supply of interest - rate bonds [3][5] Implication of the Central Bank's Action - The central bank's resumption of Treasury bond purchases implies that the current bond market yield is within its desirable range, and it is unlikely to break this state due to its own actions [3][5] Expectation of the Central Bank's Net Bond - Buying Scale - It is expected that the social financing scale will grow moderately in the remaining two months of this year, and a reasonable assumption is that the central bank's net bond - buying scale should be roughly the same as that of the same period last year [3] Central Bank's Attitude towards Market Attention - The central bank does not want the market to over - focus on the scale of Treasury bond purchases. It has been guiding the market to view monetary policy operations from the perspective of "emphasizing price rather than quantity" [3]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 5, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 65.5 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 557.7 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The central bank's net withdrawal scale has increased, but interbank funding remains loose, with overnight repurchase rates around 1.31% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system are also around 1.3%, indicating ample supply [3] - Non-bank institutions' overnight borrowing rates for pledged certificates of deposit and credit bonds are maintained at around 1.4% [3] - The market liquidity expectations are further soothed by the central bank's announcement to restart government bond trading and conduct buyout reverse repos [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show a slight decline, with the 30-year main contract down 0.08%, the 10-year down 0.01%, and the 2-year down 0.01% [12] Group 5: Key Economic Events - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the certainty of development and openness in China's economic strategy during the China International Import Expo [13] - The State Council announced the suspension of additional tariffs on certain U.S. imports starting November 10, 2025, while retaining a 10% tariff rate [13] - The National Development Bank reported that it has provided over 150 billion yuan in loans to support technological innovation and equipment upgrades since 2022 [14] Group 6: Global Macro Events - The U.S. federal government has entered its 36th day of shutdown, marking the longest in history [16] - The Bank of Japan's meeting minutes indicate a consensus on the potential for continued interest rate hikes if economic and price forecasts are met [16] Group 7: Bond Market Developments - The National Development Bank plans to issue up to 8 billion yuan in fixed-rate bonds on November 6 [18] - China Bank is assisting the Indonesian government in issuing 6 billion yuan in dim sum bonds in Hong Kong [18] - Country Garden reported a sales revenue of 27.96 billion yuan for the first ten months and held a creditor meeting for its offshore debt restructuring plan on November 5 [18]

Economic Outlook - The necessity for domestic demand to take over from external demand is increasing as external demand's contribution to economic growth may weaken [1] - The central economic work conference at the end of the year is expected to continue advocating for a "more proactive fiscal policy" and "moderately loose monetary policy" [1] - Economists predict that China's economy will achieve a growth target of around 5% for the year, despite a complex external environment [2][3] Confidence Index - The "Chief Economist Confidence Index" for November 2025 is reported at 50.3, remaining stable from the previous month [2] - The index indicates a balanced outlook among economists regarding economic performance in the coming months [2] Inflation Predictions - The average forecast for October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is -0.1%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.2% [4] - CPI is anticipated to show a seasonal increase in the fourth quarter, while PPI's recovery will depend on policy support or improvements in overseas demand [5] Retail and Industrial Growth - The predicted growth rate for social retail sales in October is 2.7%, lower than the previous month's 3% [6] - Industrial value-added growth for October is forecasted at 5.7%, indicating a slight decline but still maintaining a strong performance [7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to be -0.8% for September, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous month [8] - Real estate development investment is projected to decline by 14% in October, indicating a worsening trend in the sector [9] Trade and Foreign Exchange - The trade surplus for October is predicted to be $94.26 billion, slightly higher than the previous month's figure [10] - The average forecast for the RMB to USD exchange rate by the end of November is 7.1, indicating stability in the currency [16] Monetary Policy and Financing - New loans for October are expected to decrease to 454.91 billion yuan, down from 1.29 trillion yuan in the previous month [11] - The total social financing volume for October is projected to be 1.3 trillion yuan, lower than the previous month's figure [13] Policy Focus - Macro policies are expected to strengthen coordination between fiscal and monetary measures, with an emphasis on infrastructure and social welfare investments [18] - The focus on "investment in people" aims to enhance human capital and stimulate domestic consumption, which is crucial for sustainable economic growth [19][20]

11月4日，中国人民银行公布2025年10月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况。数据显示，央行10月恢复公开市场国债买卖，当月净投放200亿元。这意味 着自今年1月起暂停的国债买卖操作已恢复。 问：国债买卖操作有何作用？ 答：这是丰富货币政策工具箱、增强国债金融功能、发挥国债收益率曲线定价基准作用、增进货币政策与财政政策相互协同的重要举措，也有利于我国 债券市场改革发展和金融机构提升做市定价能力。 实践中，人民银行根据基础货币投放需要，兼顾债券市场供求和收益率曲线形态变化等情况，灵活开展国债买卖双向操作，保障货币政策顺畅传导和金 融市场平稳运行。 问：10月份净投放出于什么考虑？ 答：一方面，净买入的操作模式体现了央行呵护流动性市场和稳定债市预期的操作目标。 今年以来，国债买卖为何暂停又恢复？一起来看↓ 问：现在为何恢复？ 答：年初时，债券市场供求不平衡压力较大、市场风险有所累积。与年初暂停国债买卖时相比，当前10年期国债收益率已升至1.8％附近，期限利差走 阔。目前债市整体运行良好，具备恢复公开市场国债买卖操作的条件。 而且，恢复国债买卖操作既有利于支持实体经济，加强货币与财政政策协同，也有利于释放流动性，稳定 ...

标普全球市场情报经济总监蒂姆·摩尔指出，尽管11月26日预算案公布前的政策不确定性导致部分重大 支出决策延迟，但国内市场客户需求的韧性仍让多数企业保持乐观。这一积极态势对将经济增长列为首 要任务的财政大臣里夫斯而言，无疑是利好消息。 值得关注的是，当前市场普遍预期英国央行将于本月召开的货币政策会议上维持4%的基准利率不变。 英国央行正密切追踪服务业价格变化以评估通胀压力，而PMI数据显示价格涨势放缓，或为货币政策调 整提供更多空间。 分析认为，服务业与制造业的协同改善，预示英国经济可能已度过此前的疲软期，逐步显现复苏迹象。 但预算案公布前的增税预期仍让部分企业在关键决策上保持谨慎，未来经济复苏力度仍需观察政策落地 后的实际效果。(完) 中新社伦敦11月5日电 (欧阳开宇 刘施岑)标普全球5日公布的调查数据显示，英国服务业10月表现超预 期，采购经理人指数(PMI)攀升至扩张区间高位，企业对未来一年的业绩展望创下2024年10月以来最强 水平，同时通胀压力呈现显著减弱态势。 数据显示，英国10月服务业PMI终值升至52.3，高于9月的50.8，延续扩张势头。作为英国经济的核心支 柱，服务业产出与新订单在10月同 ...

问：国债买卖操作有何作用？ 11月4日，中国人民银行公布2025年10月中央银行各项工具流动性投放情况。数据显示，央行10月恢复 公开市场国债买卖，当月净投放200亿元。这意味着自今年1月起暂停的国债买卖操作已恢复。 今年以来，国债买卖为何暂停又恢复？一起来看↓ 问：现在为何恢复？ 答：年初时，债券市场供求不平衡压力较大、市场风险有所累积。与年初暂停国债买卖时相比，当前10 年期国债收益率已升至1.8％附近，期限利差走阔。目前债市整体运行良好，具备恢复公开市场国债买 卖操作的条件。 而且，恢复国债买卖操作既有利于支持实体经济，加强货币与财政政策协同，也有利于释放流动性，稳 定市场预期。 答：一方面，净买入的操作模式体现了央行呵护流动性市场和稳定债市预期的操作目标。 另一方面，200亿元净买入规模相对较低，也体现了央行无意引起利率过快下行、避免过度影响对债市 预期的监管意图。 答：这是丰富货币政策工具箱、增强国债金融功能、发挥国债收益率曲线定价基准作用、增进货币政策 与财政政策相互协同的重要举措，也有利于我国债券市场改革发展和金融机构提升做市定价能力。 实践中，人民银行根据基础货币投放需要，兼顾债券市场供求和收 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a complex scenario characterized by strong consumer spending, rising AI investments, and a softening labor market [2][6] - Current economic growth is primarily driven by productivity gains from AI investments, suggesting a potentially higher long-term growth rate for the U.S. [2][6] - The direct effects of AI investment include stimulating demand and boosting consumer confidence, while indirect effects are seen in rising productivity [2][6] Group 2: Tariff and Trade Impact - Tariff costs are currently borne by importers and have not significantly impacted consumer prices, limiting their overall economic effect [3][11] - The uncertainty caused by tariffs has led some businesses to delay investments, which could gradually increase inflation if import prices rise [3][11] - Overall, the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is considered limited at this stage, with the primary concern being the uncertainty they create [12][13] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Inflation - Current inflation is around 3%, which is above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, potentially constraining the space for interest rate cuts [3][10] - The Federal Reserve is expected to focus more on inflation rather than employment, especially if inflation remains above 3% [3][10] - The Fed's approach is described as "data-driven," which is deemed appropriate given the current economic complexities [3][9] Group 4: AI and Employment - While productivity growth is notable, there are concerns that AI may lead to the displacement of certain skilled jobs, resulting in structural unemployment [3][19] - Individuals are advised to develop transferable skills to avoid over-specialization, and there is a call for government and societal initiatives to promote retraining programs [3][19] - The interaction between AI investments and employment is complex, with significant productivity improvements expected, but the exact impact on job markets remains uncertain [15][19] Group 5: Debt and Political Environment - The U.S. debt issue is technically manageable, but political will to address it is lacking, which could raise investor concerns in the medium to long term [4][24] - The outcome of the 2026 midterm elections could lead to either the continuation of current policies or increased uncertainty, impacting U.S.-China-EU economic relations [4][28] - There is a belief that the Federal Reserve's independence is strong, despite some attempts to influence it, and it is expected to make sound decisions [21][22]