编者荐语： 展望后市，A股国庆节前延续了较为强势的走势，各大指数均在5日线之上，预计节后仍将持续趋势，需要注意3750-3900之间的区间仍是震荡为主，节后 要重点关注方向选择。板块方面，预计有色金属，固态电池，黄金等潜力较大。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者司伟杰 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 2025 年国庆假期期间，截止发稿的 1 0 月 7 日收盘，全球主要股指整体呈现上涨趋势：恒生指数涨幅 0 .38% ，恒生科技 1 .30% ，美 股三大指数微涨，韩国股市涨幅 3 . 6 4% ，日本股市表现最强上涨 6 .7% ，亚太市场显示出较强的复苏态势。大宗商品方面 COMEX 黄 金价格站上 4 000 ，涨幅超 3 .45% ，贵金属普涨，反映了避险需求或通胀预期的变化，有色金属同样较强，显示出全球工业需求的回暖 迹象。从期间涨幅来看，预计节后 A 股以平稳向好为主，且黄金、有色金属等板块可能延续强势。 展望后市， A 股国庆节前延续了较为强势的走势，各大指数均在 5 日线之上，预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro - face: Most Fed officials think further monetary easing this year may be appropriate, while a few might have supported no rate - cut in September. The US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, with expected rate cuts of 25 basis points twice by the end of this year and another 50 basis points in 2026 [3]. - Fundamental - face: In Indonesia, President Prabowo ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines, which may intensify the tight supply of tin ore. Tin ore imports from Myanmar have rebounded, and short - term supply shows improvement signs, but tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. In the smelting sector, raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream made small pre - holiday stockpiling, domestic inventory decreased, but high tin prices may suppress procurement demand. LME inventory also declined, and the spot premium remained stable. It is recommended to wait and see or hold previous long positions cautiously [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 287,090 yuan/ton, with a change of 12,020. The closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is 680 yuan/ton, with a change of 760. LME 3 - month tin is at 36,250 dollars/ton, down 120. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 34,948 lots, up 6,204. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 987 lots, up 388. LME tin total inventory is 2,505 tons, up 40. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,429 tons, down 130. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 5,851 tons, up 10 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 284,200 yuan/ton, up 7,000. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 283,960 yuan/ton, up 5,500. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 2,890 yuan/ton, down 5,020. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 65.01 dollars/ton, down 73.01 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 272,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 276,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 183,870 yuan/ton, up 4,080. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that most officials are in favor of further rate cuts this year, but many are cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants think further policy relaxation is appropriate for the rest of the year, and inflation is expected to stay high in the short - term and then gradually fall to 2%. - China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion. - S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, and the delay in key economic data release will affect the Fed's monetary policy. Each week of shutdown may cut economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points [3].

Core Insights - The recent report from the Boston Fed indicates that the sharp rise in inflation expectations poses a greater risk to the Federal Reserve's ability to control prices compared to previous periods [1] - Unlike during the pandemic, the current increase in households' one-year inflation expectations is not primarily driven by food and energy prices, raising the risk of sustained inflation above the Fed's 2% target [1][4] - The researchers draw parallels to the late 1970s when inflation surged, leading the Fed to implement an aggressive rate hike cycle [1][4] Inflation Expectations - Since the beginning of the year, American households have been adjusting to the aggressive trade policies of the Trump administration, leading to rising consumer inflation expectations [4] - The report highlights that the inflation expectations surge in the early 1970s and during the pandemic was largely explained by sharp increases in energy and food prices, but the current rise in expectations is less correlated with price increases [4] - The inability to explain the rise in inflation expectations through price increases suggests a significant risk of "de-anchoring" similar to the late 1970s, although these risks are currently deemed manageable [4] Consumer Surveys - Federal Reserve officials have characterized the high inflation expectations from the University of Michigan survey as "outliers," noting that other inflation expectation indicators remain aligned with the 2% target [4] - In a notable survey by the New York Fed, consumer inflation expectations for the next year rose to 3.4% in September, with three- and five-year expectations exceeding the Fed's 2% target by a full percentage point [4]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 宏观：国际金价站上 4000，国内假期出行活跃 海外方面，美国政府陷入停摆、9 月非农就业报告推迟发布，截至目前尚未解决，参议 院第六次否决两党临时拨款议案。日本高市早苗当选自民党总裁，将接任日本首相，其政策 主张宽货币、宽财政；法国总理提交辞呈，再度引发政治担忧，日元、欧元兑美元贬值，美 元指数升破 99 后回落。海外政府不确定性及地缘政治摩擦升温，推动金价站上 4000 美元关 口，AI 产业叙事进一步发酵，假期期间海外股指均收涨、铜价涨幅超 4%、油价走平。近期 关注美国政府关门进展、美联储官员的讲话、以及海外地缘政治的风险。 国内方面，国庆中秋假期出行活跃度高于去年，但消费增速放缓，跨区域流动保持较快 增长，零售餐饮销售同比上升但较五一假期回落，出行热度与消费动力呈现结构性分化。假 期地产成交整体低迷，同比去年整体回落，一线城市因前期限购放松表现相对坚挺。目前国 内处于经济基本面温和、预期先行的格局，本周关注 9 月金融数据。 贵金属：金银再创新高，预计将维持强势运行 十一长假期间，美国政府停摆导致的经济数据延迟，令资金大举流入黄金与白银等避险 资产。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, nearing $4000 per ounce, is attributed to a combination of declining real interest rates and increased demand from central banks and retail investors, rather than inflation concerns [2][5][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold's price has increased over 50% in the past year, with historical parallels drawn to the 1970s and the 2008 financial crisis [2]. - The decline in the 10-year TIPS yield from 2.2% to 1.8% has made gold a more attractive asset as real returns on dollar-denominated bonds diminish [5][7]. - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with 244 tons bought in Q1 2025 and an additional 166 tons in Q2, indicating a shift towards gold as a non-liability asset [7][9]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Record inflows into global gold ETFs reached $64 billion from January to September 2025, reflecting a trend of investors using gold as a hedge against uncertainty while still engaging in riskier assets like AI stocks and cryptocurrencies [7][11]. - The current gold buying behavior is characterized by a dual approach of seeking returns while also securing against potential market downturns [7][11]. Group 3: Historical Context - Gold has historically been viewed as the ultimate currency, transitioning from the gold standard to a fiat currency system, which has led to a renewed interest in gold as a hedge against the perceived instability of paper currencies [8][9]. - The rise in gold prices can be seen as a vote against the paper currency system, reflecting a deeper concern about trust in financial institutions and government debt [9][10]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Historical patterns suggest that rapid increases in gold prices are often followed by prolonged corrections, indicating potential volatility ahead [10]. - Gold is not merely an anti-dollar asset but is influenced by the broader dynamics of the dollar system, including interest rates and inflation [10]. - The interplay between gold and emerging technologies, such as AI, highlights the complex relationship between optimism for innovation and anxiety about systemic risks [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is experiencing a shutdown due to a budget impasse, the first since 2019, expected to last until mid-October, leading to delays in the release of key economic data such as non-farm payroll and CPI inflation figures [1] - The market is entering a "data blackout" phase, with a surprising decline in ADP employment numbers, reinforcing expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate a series of interest rate cuts [1] - Gold and silver are viewed as essential tools to combat fiscal irresponsibility and monetary policy uncertainty, with a strong long-term bullish outlook for these precious metals [1] Group 2 - As of October 9, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) surged by 5.74%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Tongling Nonferrous Metals (10.07%) and Jiangxi Copper (10.00%) [3] - The Gold ETF Fund (159322) rose by 8.02%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with a latest price of 1.75 yuan [3] - The trading volume for the Gold ETF Fund was active, with a turnover of 18.49% and total transactions amounting to 18.44 million yuan [3] Group 3 - The Gold ETF Fund has seen a net value increase of 54.83% over the past year, ranking 569 out of 3054 index funds, placing it in the top 18.63% [4] - The fund's historical performance includes a maximum monthly return of 20.05% and a 100% probability of profit over a one-year holding period [4] - The fund has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [4] Group 4 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index account for 68.2% of the index, including major companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the metals and chemicals industry, emphasizing that these sectors typically perform well during the second phase of a bull market, driven by monetary easing and inflation expectations, as well as demand growth from economic recovery [4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The metals and chemicals sectors are identified as strong cyclical industries that usually do not miss out on bull markets, particularly during the second phase of such markets [4]. - Recent financial reports indicate a recovery in performance for many companies within these sectors, suggesting a positive trend in earnings [4]. Group 2: Market Behavior - Retail investors are cautioned against impulsive buying during market peaks, as this can lead to increased stress and potential losses [3]. - The article highlights the importance of reflecting on missed opportunities, particularly during initial entry points and during low-volume pullbacks [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the main themes in the market are likely to continue evolving, with fluctuations and rotations occurring within established themes rather than new ones emerging [4]. - It suggests that the current market phase is characterized by residual momentum, indicating that while there may be opportunities, they are part of a broader cyclical pattern [4].

节后第一个交易日（10月9日），有色金属板块断层领涨两市，有色龙头ETF（159876）跳空大涨，场 内价格飙涨5.7%，刷新上市以来的高点。截至发稿，有色龙头ETF（159876）获资金实时净申购3420万 份。成份股方面，江西铜业、白银有色、四川黄金涨停，西部超导涨超16%，铜陵有色、云南铜业、山 东黄金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金等个股大幅跟涨。 天风证券认为，以下三点将支撑贵金属走势：一是避险需求。经济不确定性包括美股估值偏高、美联储 独立性危机、美国和欧洲的财政债务压力、欧美经济增速回升困难等多重因素。政策环境不确定性包括 贸易壁垒、中东局势等地缘风险；二是央行购金仍将发挥正面支撑作用。虽然央行购金速度最快的时期 已过，但各经济体央行出于储备多元化和降低对美元依赖的考虑，仍将保持稳定的购金需求，为黄金价 格提供底部支撑；三是通胀预期因素值得关注。目前看，通胀预期不是本轮行情的主因。但如果小概率 情形下美国发生持久性高通胀，那么黄金对冲通胀的价值将进一步凸显，或推动金价进入新的上行通 道。 不同的有色金属，景气度、节奏与驱动点并不一致，分化在所难免，如果看好有色金属板块，一个比较 轻松的思路是通过全覆盖来更好 ...

值得一提的是，10月8日，伦敦现货黄金价格首次站上4000美元整数关口，再创历史新高，延续破纪录 涨势。高盛将2026年12月黄金价格预测上调至每盎司4900美元（此前预测为4300美元）。 国庆假期期间，有色金属板块无疑成为了焦点中的焦点，万众期待之下，节后第一个交易日（10月9 日）有色金属板块断层领涨两市，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）跳空大涨，场内价 格飙涨5.39%，刷新上市以来的高点！截至发稿，该ETF获资金实时净申购2460万份！ 成份股方面，江西铜业、白银有色、四川黄金涨停！西部超导涨超16%，铜陵有色、云南铜业、山东黄 金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金等个股大幅跟涨！ 上交所数据显示，上一交易日（9月30日），有色龙头ETF（159876）单日吸金3463万元，反映资金看 好板块后市，积极进场抢筹！值得一提的是，截至9月30日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模3.47亿 元，再创历史新高！ 消息面上，据当地时间10月8日，美联储最新发布的9月议息会议纪要，在参加会议的19位官员中，略多 于一半的人预计今年还将至少再降息两次。 业内人士表示，美联储降息周期是一个关键的"慢变量 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 09 日 铜：供应扰动，推升价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 83,110 | 0.90% | 83680 | 0.69% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,701 | 3.93% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 156,069 | 17,609 | 213,859 | 67 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 17,830 | -2,923 | 321,000 | 2,100 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 26,823 | 1,220 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 139,425 | -3,975 | 5.95% | -0.79% | | | ...