Group 1: Report General Information - Report date: August 14, 2025 [1] - Report author: Xiang Weiyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Author's qualification: F3051846 (从业资格证号), Z0015764 (投资咨询证号) [1] - Contact information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - For gold, due to the US Treasury Secretary's statement on potential sanctions against Russia and high expectations of a 50BP interest rate cut in September, the gold price first rose and then fell, and rose again in the morning. The high expectation of interest rate cuts supports the gold price [4]. - For silver, with the same statement from the US Treasury Secretary and a significant increase in domestic risk appetite, the silver price strengthened during the day. The recovery of commodity sentiment still supports the silver price [6]. Group 4: Summary by Catalog 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US Treasury Secretary's statement led to a rise - then - fall in the gold price. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell (10 - year US bond yield down 6 basis points to 4.231%), the US dollar index fell 0.28% to 97.80, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.24% to $3407.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The silver price rose during the day due to the US Treasury Secretary's statement and increased domestic risk appetite. Similar to gold, US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index fell, and the offshore RMB appreciated. COMEX silver futures rose 1.44% to $38.55 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Today's key events include the State Council Information Office press conference, US July PPI, intensive speeches by Fed members, and UK Q2 GDP [4]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:30: Australian employment population and unemployment rate for July [15] - 10:00: State Council Information Office press conference on the achievements of the "14th Five - Year Plan" digital China construction [15] - 14:00: UK Q2 GDP preliminary value [15] - 20:30: US July PPI, initial jobless claims for the week ending August 9 [15] - 22:00: US St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem participates in a CNBC program [15] - Next day 02:00: US Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 FOMC voter) participates in an online seminar [15] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 3.2 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of gold futures warrants is 36045 kg (unchanged), the 20 - day moving average is downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position is decreasing [4][5]. - Silver: The basis is - 26 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 1151209 kg (decreased by 753 kg day - on - day), the 20 - day moving average is downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position is decreasing [6]. 5. Position Data - Gold: On August 13, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.24% to 214,449, the short position increased by 3.78% to 60,932, and the net position decreased by 1.09% to 153,517 [29]. - Silver: ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years, and Shanghai silver warrants continued to decrease but were higher than last year's level, while COMEX silver warrants increased slightly [36][40].

核心观点 年内降息概率下降，需求端政策或使得通胀预期得以延续，对债市形成持续性压制，债市做多窗口或进一步后移。 1. 年内降息概率进一步下降。年内降息概率或在"财政替代货币、结构替代总量、预期管理"三重效应下进一步下降。首先，财政贴息≈定向降息，央行总 量工具必要性下降；其次，结构性政策或抑制"全面降息"空间，更有利于防止资金空转；最后，通胀预期升温，央行降息更加谨慎，年内降息概率进一步 下降。 2. "反内卷"行情下通胀预期被再次强化。在"反内卷"政策持续推进的背景下，通过供给收缩→价格信号→预期自我强化的路径实现，通胀预期被阶段性强 化。虽然市场开始类比2016年的供给侧改革，提前押注再通胀，但仅仅基于供给收缩逻辑的通胀叙事可能延续性不强，需求端政策或为涨价预期提供更好 的支撑，带动"反内卷交易"二次升温。 3. 债市做多窗口或进一步后移。贴息政策通过"财政补位+结构性降息"组合，显著压缩了央行年内货币政策总量宽松空间，年内降息概率进一步下降，考 虑个人贷款贴息政策将持续至2026年8月31日，预计下一次降息窗口将后移至2026年一季度，年内不排除有"防御式降息"可能。需求端政策或使得通胀预 期得以延续， ...

Core Insights - The probability of interest rate cuts within the year has decreased, with demand-side policies potentially sustaining inflation expectations, leading to continued pressure on the bond market and further postponement of the buying window [1][3][28] - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy is expected to compress the central bank's total monetary policy easing space, with the next potential rate cut window likely pushed to the first quarter of 2026 [3][12][28] - Inflation expectations have been reinforced under the "anti-involution" policy, with demand-side policies providing better support for price increase expectations, leading to a resurgence in "anti-involution trading" [2][20][28] Summary by Sections Understanding Personal Consumption Loan Interest Subsidy Policy - The policy covers personal consumption loans under 50,000 yuan and key areas such as automotive, healthcare, and education, with a maximum subsidy of 3,000 yuan for eligible borrowers [10][11] - The subsidy is equivalent to a targeted interest rate cut of 0.5-1 percentage points, reducing the effective financing cost for consumers [11][12] Impact on Bond Market - The bond market's buying window is likely to be further delayed due to the subsidy policy, which compresses the central bank's monetary policy easing space [3][28] - The anticipated inflation expectations and strong performance in the equity market may continue to exert pressure on the bond market [28] Inflation Expectations and Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy has led to a self-reinforcing cycle of price signals and inflation expectations, with significant price increases in sectors like coal and steel [2][20] - The market has begun to bet on a re-inflation scenario, with indicators showing a shift in investor sentiment towards inflationary expectations [20][27]

Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Electrolytic Copper) - Report Date: August 12, 2025 - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute - Author: Wang Wenhu 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic anti-involution policies lead to inflation rebound expectations, and the accumulation of total domestic and foreign electrolytic copper inventories slows down. However, the rebound of US consumer inflation may suppress the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, limiting the upside space for Shanghai copper prices. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [5]. - Due to the expectation of domestic economic stimulus policies, global copper concentrate production disruptions, and tight supply-demand expectations, combined with the impact of the traditional consumption off-season and the uncertainty of the US interest rate cut rhythm, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the basis and calendar spreads of Shanghai copper [8]. - Given that Trump's administration imposed a 50% tariff on copper products (excluding electrolytic copper), and with the continuous tight supply-demand expectations of global copper concentrates and the increasing expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates after September, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - US import tariffs push up commodity prices, causing the annual rates of consumer inflation CPI and PCE in June to rise. However, due to the possible significant downward revision or far lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls from May to July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates in September, October, and December [3]. Upstream - Newmont's Canadian Red Chris copper mine suspended operations due to a collapse in the underground passage of a non-productive project. Anglo Asian Mining's Demirli copper mine started trial production. Zijin Mining's Kamoa-Kakula copper mine's west side resumed production in early June, but the east side's drainage may last until September. Tongling Nonferrous' Mirador copper mine phase II in Ecuador with a 150,000-ton capacity may be put into production in the second half of 2025, potentially increasing the domestic production (import) of copper concentrates in August [3]. - The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system in the recycling base of recycled copper resources of Dianzhong Nonferrous successfully produced anode copper in early July. The weekly processing fees for crude copper in northern (southern) China remained flat (increased) compared to the previous week. The capacity of domestic smelters for rough refining maintenance in August may decrease compared to the previous month, potentially increasing the domestic production (import) of crude copper in August [3]. - Liangshan Copper's 125,000-ton cathode copper refining project may start feeding production by the end of the year. Northern Copper's Houma Beitong with an annual production of 200,000 tons of cathode copper ignited its side-blowing and top-blowing smelting systems on June 10, potentially reducing the domestic production of electrolytic copper in August [3]. Supply and Inventory - Indonesia's PT Gresik copper smelter (annual production of 300,000 tons) needed maintenance for 2 - 4 weeks in early August due to oxygen supply equipment failure. India's Adani copper smelter with a 500,000-ton capacity resumed feeding on June 16 after multiple delays but still faced the risk of cancellation of long-term supply contracts for South American copper concentrates. African agricultural exports delayed ship bookings until late August, leading to inventory accumulation of electrolytic copper at Durban and Dar es Salaam ports, potentially reducing the domestic import of electrolytic copper in August [4]. - The import window closure may limit the domestic import of electrolytic copper, causing the inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded areas to decrease compared to the previous week. China's social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased compared to the previous week, while the inventory of electrolytic copper at the London Metal Exchange increased compared to the previous week [17]. - The inventory of copper concentrates at Chinese ports increased compared to the previous week [20]. Downstream - The daily processing fees for refined copper rods for East China's power and enameled wire increased compared to the previous week, causing the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) to decline (decline) compared to the previous week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of China's copper wire and cable enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of China's copper enameled wire decreased (increased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's enameled wire enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of China's copper strip increased (increased) compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's copper strip enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tubes increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's copper tube enterprises increased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rods increased compared to the previous week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of China's brass rod enterprises decreased (decreased) compared to the previous week [5]. - The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off-season are intertwined, potentially causing the capacity utilization rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises to decline (increase, decrease, decrease) in August [5]. Market Structure - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive, and the calendar spreads are negative [6]. - The basis of Shanghai copper is negative and within a reasonable range, and the calendar spreads are negative and within a reasonable range. The reason is the expectation of domestic economic stimulus policies, global copper concentrate production disruptions, and tight supply-demand expectations, combined with the impact of the traditional consumption off-season and the uncertainty of the US interest rate cut rhythm [8]. - The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai copper to LME copper is close to the 75th percentile of the past five years, which is due to Trump's administration's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper products (excluding electrolytic copper), combined with the continuous tight supply-demand expectations of global copper concentrates and the increasing expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates after September [9]. - The spreads between COMEX copper's near and far contracts are basically negative and within a reasonable range. The spread between LME copper and Shanghai copper is positive and basically within a reasonable range. The spread between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range. The spread between COMEX copper and LME copper is negative and within a reasonable range, which is due to Trump's administration's copper tariff policy inducing potential cross-market arbitrage transactions [11]. - The closing prices of Shanghai copper's near and far months show a Back structure, and the closing prices of COMEX copper's near and far contracts show a Contango structure [13]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,300 - 9,500 and the resistance level around 10,000 - 10,200 for LME copper, and the support level around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance level around 4.6 - 5.0 for COMEX copper [5]. - Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the basis and calendar spreads of Shanghai copper [8]. - Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [9].

今晚美国率先公布本周的重磅指引——美国7月CPI，由于零售商逐步提高各种受进口关税上调影响的商品价格，预计物价压力进一步上升，市场预期CPI年 率为2.8%（前值2.7%），CPI月率预计0.3%（前值0.2%），核心CPI年率预计达到3%（前值2.9%），意味着通胀可能录得今年年初以来的最大涨幅，但汽油 价格下跌可能有助于缓和整体物价上涨压力。 值得关注的是，本次的数据是自本月初美国总统因就业报告低迷而下令解雇美国劳工统计局局长埃里卡·麦肯塔弗以来，首次公布的CPI报告，而当前投资者 依然存在政府统计数据可能削弱信心的担忧。 尽管与关税相关的价格上涨越来越明显，但美国消费者6月份仍继续支出，但是这可能受到进一步物价压力的影响。受关税上调影响最大的商品价格在6月份 有所回升，但整体通胀率仍然相对低迷。随着贸易关税的影响开始显现，华尔街策略师发出警告称，美国经济正走向滞胀，这可能会限制美联储降息的能 力。 上周公布的纽约联邦储备银行的月度调查显示，7月份美国消费者通胀预期上升，就业市场看法改善。未来一年的预期通胀率从6月份的3%小幅升至3.1%。 未来三年的预期通胀率稳定在3%，而未来五年的预期通胀率则跃升至2 ...

美国：通胀预期回升 [Table_Authors] ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 本周高频数据显示美国交易层面通胀预期上升，但非制造业 PMI 回落，滞胀风险上 升，美联储货币政策面临两难困境。欧元区投资信心指数回落至负区间，欧洲央行 短期内或不会采取降息行动。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。本周（2025.8.1-2025.8.8），大宗商品价格大多 下跌。其中，伦敦金现上涨 1.1%，COMEX 铜下跌 0.7%，标普-高盛 商品指数下跌 1.2%。 主要经济体股市普遍上涨，日经 225 上涨 2.5%，标普 500 上涨 2.4%，其中恒生指数上涨 1.4%。债市方面，10 年期美债收益率较前一周回升 4BP 至 4.27%，国内 10Y 国债期货价 格上涨 0.2%。外汇市场方面，美元指数较前一周回落，报收 98.27， 日元兑美元贬值 0.2%，人民币兑美元升值 0.4%。 经济：美国方面：8 月市场交易层面 5 年与 10 年期通胀预期均回 升，投资者信心边际改善，8 月 2 日当周美国初次申请失业金人数 上升；7 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 回落；6 月耐 ...

Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report reviews 5 historical instances of bond bull - to - bear market transitions to provide insights for the current bond market [1]. - The main factor for the bond market's bull - to - bear transition is the recovery of real - entity financing demand, and it's crucial to grasp the timing of the central bank's monetary tightening [7]. - The bond market's interest rate fluctuation center is rising, and a defensive - counterattack investment strategy is suitable, waiting for trading opportunities from stock market rhythm changes [8]. Summary by Directory 2002 - 2020 Five Rounds of Bond Bull - to - Bear Market Review - 2003.9 - 2004.12: Rising inflation and tightened monetary policy led to a bond bear market. The central bank raised the reserve requirement ratio to prevent excessive growth of money and credit [2]. - 2006.11 - 2007.11: Over - heated economy and tightened monetary policy caused the bond market to turn bearish. Strong terminal demand drove inflation up, and the central bank tightened policy to curb over - heating [3]. - 2009.1 - 2009.11: Counter - cyclical policies, economic recovery, and monetary tightening led to a bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.85% to 3.68%, and the market later entered a volatile phase [4]. - 2016.10 - 2017.11: Financial de - leveraging drove the bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.69% to 3.92%, with strict supervision and tight money as the main factors [5]. - 2020.5 - 2020.11: Premature shift in monetary policy and an economic inflection point brought a bond bear market. The 10 - year treasury bond rate rose from 2.54% to 3.25% [6]. Characteristics of Bond Bull - to - Bear Transition - The recovery of real - entity financing demand, represented by economic upturn and rising prices, is the main cause of the bond market's bull - to - bear transition. The real - estate cycle has a significant impact on bond market interest rates [7]. - Central bank's monetary tightening occurs in all bond bear markets, but the timing varies according to the macro - economic environment, and grasping this timing is key [7]. Investment Strategy - The "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds is significant this year. Due to changes in inflation expectations, the bond market has declined while stocks have risen since July [8]. - Considering the low long - term interest rates and the possible PPI recovery, there is a risk of long - term interest rate re - pricing, and the interest rate curve tends to steepen [8]. - A defensive - counterattack strategy is recommended. Do not chase when the 10 - year treasury bond rate is below 1.7%, and consider short - term allocation at around 1.75%, waiting for trading opportunities from stock market rhythm changes [8].

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic view on liquidity for August and September, expecting funding rates to remain low, which will support the bond market [4][7][14] - Seasonal factors indicate that August typically sees continued liquidity, and September's pressure is manageable compared to the previous quarter-end [4][9] - Government bond issuance pressure may increase but is likely to be below expectations due to faster issuance earlier in the year and a lower-than-average pace anticipated for August and September [9][12] Group 2 - The bond market is currently constrained by inflation expectations and low profitability, which may prevent liquidity optimism from driving interest rates down [14][39] - Recent bond market performance shows a recovery trend, with yields on various government bonds declining, indicating a mixed response to market conditions [39][40] - The report suggests focusing on coupon value in bond investments, with caution advised for low liquidity trading products [16][39] Group 3 - High-frequency data indicates a negative year-on-year growth in housing transaction areas, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market [45][61] - Production data shows mixed trends, with some sectors experiencing increased operational rates while others face declines, highlighting a diverse economic landscape [45][46] - Commodity prices are fluctuating, with oil prices declining and metals like copper and aluminum seeing price increases, indicating varied market dynamics [46][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★, suggesting a focus on long - position opportunities, with a mid - to - long - term strategic allocation recommendation [1] - Silver: ★★, indicating a long - position strategy after a decline, with a long - term upward trend [1] - Copper: ★★, recommending trial long positions on dips, with a long - term optimistic outlook [1] - Zinc: ★, showing a bearish trend, suggesting short - position opportunities at high prices [1] - Lead: ★, with a bearish trend and the price under pressure [1] - Tin: ★, having a short - term rebound trend [1] - Aluminum: ★, with the price under pressure [1] - Nickel: ★★, suggesting short - position opportunities on rebounds [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★, with a cautious long - position recommendation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, with a long - position recommendation [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, with a long - position recommendation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple factors affecting various non - ferrous and new - energy metals, including policies, inflation expectations, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels. It provides investment strategies for different metals based on these factors, such as long - position or short - position operations at appropriate times [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Trump cooled down the meeting, and there was news that the Sino - US tariff might be postponed for 90 days. Trump stated that gold would not be taxed. Also, the inflation expectation rose this week, leading to an obvious adjustment in gold prices [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump's new policy exempts gold from tariffs, causing a short - term decline in physical demand. The market is trading inflation expectations, with a high probability of a September rate cut and an expected 1 - 2 rate cuts within the year. Trump cooled down the US - Russia summit. In the long run, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770 in the short term, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver follows gold's decline, and long positions can be taken after it stops falling. The trading range is 9100 - 9300 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The overnight Shanghai copper futures gapped down and rebounded under pressure [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and the subsequent refined copper production may decrease marginally. It is currently the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up during the peak seasons. LME copper inventory accumulation has slowed down, and domestic social copper inventory is tight, stimulating refined copper consumption. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The US inflation data is about to be released. The US dollar's rebound puts pressure on copper prices. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long term, copper is still bullish. The Shanghai copper price is expected to be in the range of [78000, 80000], and the London copper price in the range of [9600, 9900] dollars per ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: London zinc rose and then fell, and Shanghai zinc rebounded under pressure [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. The demand side is affected by tariffs and the off - season, leading to inventory accumulation in the domestic market [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The US inflation data is about to be released. The US dollar's rebound puts pressure on zinc prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now. In the long term, short positions can be established at high prices. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to be in the range of [22200, 22800], and the London zinc price in the range of [2750, 2850] dollars per ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina rebounded and then fell [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, and inventory is rising while demand is weak. For alumina, the supply from Guinea is stable, and the supply is expected to be abundant in the short term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded in the short term, and stainless steel also showed a rebound trend [17]. - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and the production of refined nickel is increasing. Stainless steel production cuts are weakening, and there is still an oversupply pressure during the off - season [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 increased in position and reached the daily limit [21]. - **Industrial Logic**: Terminal demand is about to enter the peak season, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The market is speculating on production suspension news, and funds are sensitive to positive information [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The speculation on supply continues, and long positions can be held in the range of [85000 - 89000] [23].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: The news of gold being tax - free continues to ferment, causing the gold price to decline significantly. The release of the US CPI today may lead the market to bet on stagflation. If the CPI rises, the gold price will still have support. With the new dovish expectations of the Fed, the gold price may rebound. [4] - Silver: The silver price follows the gold price to fall due to the news of gold being tax - free. The recovery of domestic risk appetite provides support for the silver price, and the decline is not significantly enlarged. The commodity sentiment recovers, and the silver price is still supported. The release of the US CPI today may further push up the silver price. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: US three major stock indexes fell slightly, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively (10 - year US bond yield fell 0.58 basis points to 4.281%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.50, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1962, and COMEX gold futures fell 2.80% to $3393.7 per ounce. [4] - **Silver**: Silver price followed the gold price to fall. US three major stock indexes fell slightly, European three major stock indexes closed mixed, US bond yields fell collectively (10 - year US bond yield fell 0.58 basis points to 4.281%), the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 98.50, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1962, and COMEX silver futures fell 2.33% to $37.645 per ounce. [6] 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The gold futures price is 779.48, the spot price is 776.19, and the basis is - 3.29, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipts are 36045 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is reduced. [4][5] - **Silver**: The silver futures price is 9210, the spot price is 9187, and the basis is - 23, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1151962 kg, with a daily decrease of 6425 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position is increased. [6] 3.3. Today's Focus - 12:30: Australian policy rate, and the RBA Governor Michele Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. - 14:00: UK's three - month ILO employment change and unemployment rate for June. - Time TBD: China's new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 17:00: Eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index for August, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for August. - 20:30: US CPI for July. - 22:00: Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (FOMC voter in 2027) speaks. - 22:30: Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (FOMC voter in 2025) speaks on monetary policy and economic outlook. - 02:00: US government budget for July. [15] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The news of gold being tax - free continues to ferment, the gold price drops significantly. The market starts to bet on stagflation, and if the CPI rises, the gold price will have support. The Shanghai gold premium expands to - 1.3 yuan per gram. [4] - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The silver price follows the gold price to fall due to the news of gold being tax - free. The recovery of domestic risk appetite provides support for the silver price, and the Shanghai silver premium remains at about 400 yuan per kg. [6] 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position is reduced. [5] - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position is increased. [6]