Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the bullish outlook for gold prices amid the U.S. government shutdown and disappointing labor data, which have contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index, thereby supporting gold's price recovery [1][3]. Price Movement - On September 30, gold opened at $3,833.12 per ounce, reached a high of $3,871.31, then fell to a low of $3,792.99 before closing at $3,858.13, resulting in a daily fluctuation of $78.32 and a gain of $25.01, or 0.65% [3]. - The price recovery was influenced by the U.S. government's shutdown risk and overall favorable data from the U.S. market, despite profit-taking in the Chinese market and hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official [3][5]. Future Outlook - On October 1, gold is expected to continue its upward trend, although the dollar index's early rebound may limit bullish momentum. The overall trend remains within a range, with no significant pressure anticipated in the short term [5]. - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to delay the release of key non-farm payroll data, which may further bolster gold prices due to increased risk aversion [5]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold prices have rebounded after testing the 5-day moving average support, suggesting a continued bullish trend. Key resistance levels are identified at $3,880 and $3,900, while support levels are at $3,845 and $3,818 [7]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has consistently tested the mid-band support since its rise last year, with the potential for further upward movement despite some resistance near the upper Bollinger Band [8].

Market Overview - Major U.S. stock index futures are down, with Dow futures falling by 0.57%, S&P 500 futures down by 0.63%, and Nasdaq futures decreasing by 0.73% [1] Technology Sector - Most star tech stocks are declining in pre-market trading, including Nvidia and AMD [2] Lithium Industry - Lithium Americas shares surged over 32% after the U.S. government announced it will acquire a 5% stake in the company [2] Consumer Goods - Nike's quarterly revenue exceeded expectations, leading to a 3% increase in pre-market trading [4] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures surpassed $3900 per ounce, reaching a new record high, driven by increased risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown [4] - Spot gold rose to $3880 per ounce, with gold stocks also gaining in pre-market trading, including Kinross Gold up by 1.4%, and AngloGold up by 3.4% [4] Energy Sector - WTI crude oil futures fell by 0.72%, dropping below $62 per barrel, while Brent crude oil decreased by 0.69% to $65.577 per barrel [4] Automotive Industry - NIO delivered 34,749 new vehicles in September, marking a 64% year-over-year increase, with the stock rising by 2.23% [4] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin rose above $115,000, increasing by 0.98% in the past 24 hours [5] Automotive Recall - BMW is recalling over 145,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to a potential fire risk from engine starter issues affecting certain 2020 models [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown for the first time in nearly seven years, marking the 14th shutdown since 1980 [1] - The ADP employment report for September shows a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest decline since March 2023, falling short of the expected increase of 50,000 [1] - U.S. stock index futures are collectively down, with the Dow Jones futures down 0.29%, S&P 500 futures down 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.45% [1] - European stock markets are up, with the FTSE 100 rising 0.65%, CAC 40 increasing by 0.38%, and DAX 30 up by 0.39% [1] - The U.S. Senate has rejected a bipartisan funding bill, leading to the government shutdown and affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees [1] Group 2 - NIO delivered 34,749 new vehicles in September, a year-on-year increase of 64% [2] - XPeng Motors delivered 41,581 new vehicles in September, marking a 95% year-on-year growth [2] - Li Auto delivered 33,951 vehicles in September, with a total of 93,211 vehicles delivered in the third quarter [2] - BMW is recalling over 145,000 vehicles in the U.S. due to a potential fire risk from overheating engine starters [2] - ExxonMobil plans to implement a global layoff plan that will affect 15% of its workforce in Singapore by the end of 2027 [2] - Tesla has raised leasing prices for all its models in the U.S. following the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit aimed at promoting electric vehicle sales [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is set to shut down again since 2019, leading to increased uncertainty in global financial markets [1][4]. Market Reactions - U.S. stock futures, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, fell approximately 0.5% during Asian trading hours [1]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 167.40 points, or 0.36%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw declines of 0.49% and 0.53%, respectively [2]. - Asian markets exhibited mixed performance; Japan's Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1%, while South Korea's KOSPI index rose by 0.7% [5][6]. Economic Indicators - The government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report, which is crucial for assessing economic health [4]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October has surged from 90% to 96% due to the uncertainty created by the shutdown [4][17]. Safe-Haven Assets - Increased risk aversion has driven COMEX gold prices above $3,900 per ounce, reaching a record high, while spot gold rose by 0.2% to $3,865 per ounce [2][7]. - The U.S. dollar index remained stable at 97.84 after three days of decline, with the dollar against the yen slightly increasing to 148.1 [7]. Bond Market - The U.S. Treasury market remained stable during Asian trading, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield holding steady at 4.150% [10]. Commodity Market - Oil prices stabilized after two days of decline, as investors weighed OPEC+'s potential increase in production against the backdrop of declining U.S. crude inventories [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, precious metals have continued to rise, but gold and silver have shown divergence. Gold has repeatedly reached new historical highs, while silver has followed up slowly and faced pressure to fall back. The main driving factors include increased risk - aversion sentiment, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. The current bull market in precious metals differs significantly from previous ones in terms of driving logic, amplitude, and the role of central banks. [4][5][7] - Looking ahead, before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise. However, after the interest rate cuts enter the second half, attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline in precious metal prices due to profit - taking, and the overall volatility of precious metals may further increase. [64] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Since 2025, gold has reached new highs, with London gold reaching a maximum of $3057.14 per ounce, Comex gold reaching $3065.2 per ounce, and domestic Shanghai gold reaching a maximum of 711.24 yuan per gram. Silver has followed up slowly, with London silver reaching a maximum of $34.224 per ounce and domestic Shanghai silver reaching a maximum of 8444 yuan per kilogram. [4] - The main logics for the rise of precious metals since the beginning of the year are: increased risk - aversion sentiment due to global economic and political restructuring, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. [5][7] - This bull market in precious metals differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "cyclical" to "structural"), amplitude and breadth (unprecedented global general increase), and the role of central banks (from "participants" to "leading forces"). [9][10] - The bull market in silver also differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "investment - led" to "investment + industrial demand dual - driven"), breadth and synchronicity (global value re - evaluation), and the relationship with gold (from "following" to "potentially leading"). [12][13] 3.2. Evolution Logic of Safe - Haven Attribute - The world is in the process of transitioning to a new order, with the US no longer the dominant power. There are risks of trade wars, government shutdowns, and potential geopolitical conflicts, which may increase the demand for safe - haven assets. Trump's policy expectations affect precious metal prices through multiple channels, and in the short term, risk - aversion sentiment may support precious metal prices, while in the long term, trade frictions may increase inflation or lead to economic recession, making precious metals more attractive. [14][16] - The volatility of the US stock market may rise, which will increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. [19] 3.3. Evolution Logic of Monetary Attribute - In 2025, US inflation may experience "re - inflation", and the eurozone is close to achieving its anti - inflation target, but trade war risks pose pressure on future interest rate cuts. The Fed has adjusted its monetary policy framework, which may lead to potential changes in US dollar liquidity and have different impacts on various countries. [23] - The US employment situation may continue to weaken, and Trump's new policies may accelerate the decline in employment. Non - farm payroll data has a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate decisions and precious metal prices. [32][35] - The Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates in 2025, with a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points and the process expected to be completed around mid - 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool can help investors predict the Fed's interest rate trends. [41][42] - Global central bank monetary policies have shown significant divergence in recent years. The difference in interest rate cut expectations between the US and non - US countries is crucial. Later, the Fed's larger interest rate cut space may put pressure on the US dollar index. [45] 3.4. Evolution Logic of Commodity Attribute - In 2024, the global gold supply increased steadily, but demand declined. In 2025, demand is expected to continue to show structural divergence. Jewelry demand is suppressed by high gold prices, but official and private gold purchases offset some negative impacts. Gold ETFs, bars, and coins have strong demand, while gold jewelry demand shows a tonnage - consumption divergence. [51] - The World Silver Association predicts that in 2025, the global silver supply - demand gap will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply. [56] 3.5. Technical Analysis - London gold has been in an upward trend since 2000. After reaching a high in 2011 and then falling back, it has started a new upward trend since 2016. In 2025, it has accelerated its upward movement. It is expected to continue to rise before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels of $3750 - 4000 (about 850 - 910 yuan for Shanghai gold) and the support level of $3400 (about 770 yuan for Shanghai gold). [58][59] - London silver has followed a similar trend to gold since 1994. Since 2016, it has oscillated upward along the 20 - year line. The recent rebound in global silver industrial demand may drive its price up. Attention should be paid to the pressure range of $49.8 - 55 (about 11780 - 13000 yuan for Shanghai silver) and the support level of $37.9 (about 8960 yuan for Shanghai silver). [62] 3.6. Future Market Development Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - The reconstruction of the global economic and political system promotes the reconstruction of the monetary system. The safe - haven demand under global economic uncertainty and policy game are complexly intertwined. The continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term Sino - US game, and repeated geopolitical conflicts still support the precious metal market. Before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline. [64] 3.7. Overview of the Domestic Precious Metal Industry Chain - In the first half of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 179.083 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%. After including imported raw material gold, the total gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%. Key gold mine projects are advancing rapidly, and large - scale gold enterprises' overseas mine production has increased. [67][68] - In the first half of 2025, domestic gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. Gold jewelry consumption was suppressed by high prices, while demand for gold bars and coins increased, and industrial and other gold uses also increased. [69]

美国政府关门倒计时仅剩不到两天之际，国会两党就拨款问题举行的关键谈判失败，这一政治僵局引发的市场焦虑情绪，已将金价推升至每盎司3800美元 上方。 当地时间周一，美国总统特朗普与国会两党领袖在白宫的会谈未能打破僵局。 联邦政府的现有资金将于当地时间周三凌晨0点01分正式耗尽（北京时间周三中午12时01分），若届时无法达成协议，一场将导致数十万联邦雇员被迫休 假、公共服务中断的政府关门将不可避免。 谈判结束后，双方立场依然强硬，并相互指责。副总统JD Vance警告称，美国正"走向一场停摆"，并指责民主党人将政府"当作人质"。而参议院少数党领 袖Chuck Schumer则反驳称，是否关门的决定权在共和党手中，民主党已向总统提出建议，但"最终的决策者是特朗普"。 对美国政治体系不确定性的担忧，叠加美元走弱，推动作为传统避险资产的黄金价格在周一上午强势突破3800美元/盎司的关口，今日一度涨到3871美 元，目前回落到3800美元附近。 高盛表示，股市最担心的是美国政府停摆可能导致非农就业数据发布推迟。如果政府停摆，9月非农就业报告很可能无法按计划于周五上午8:30发布，这 可能会导致美联储10月份降息计划推迟。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The meeting between Trump and congressional leaders on September 29 raises concerns about a potential government shutdown, with over 60% probability if no agreement is reached by September 30, which could lead to a data vacuum and increased investment in gold as a safe haven [2] - The PCE price index released on the previous Friday met market expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in October, which is a key driver for the continuous rise in gold prices [2] - Analyst Mai Dong from Bailihao believes that the rate cut cycle supports the ongoing increase in gold prices, alongside heightened risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown, leading to new historical highs for gold [2] Group 2: Oil Market - OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production by at least 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, although current production is nearly 500,000 barrels per day below targets, indicating a risk of oversupply in the market [2] - The IEA warns of a potential oversupply in global oil markets before 2026, with OPEC+ focusing on market share rather than price management due to ongoing production increases [3] - The resumption of oil exports from northern Iraq after a two-year pause may further ease supply constraints, contributing to a more pronounced short-term volatility in the oil market [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal funds are set to run out on October 1, raising the risk of a government shutdown [5] - The European Central Bank may need to adjust its policy stance due to weak economic growth, as indicated by comments from ECB President Lagarde [3] - Upcoming key economic data includes the Chicago PMI and JOLTs job openings, which could influence market sentiment [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. export control measures against Chinese companies have heightened market volatility and increased risk aversion, leading to a potential rise in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - On September 30, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 874.40 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 1.48% with a trading volume of 226,548 lots and an open interest of 256,876 lots [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai on the same day was quoted at 872.95 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 1.45 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The U.S. Department of Commerce has implemented new export control rules that affect subsidiaries of companies listed on the U.S. "Entity List" if they hold more than 50% ownership, which has been criticized by China as a severe infringement on legitimate business rights [1][2]. - China has expressed strong opposition to these measures, stating that they undermine international trade order and disrupt global supply chains, and has vowed to take necessary actions to protect its companies [1][2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Recommendations - The renewed tensions in U.S.-China trade relations, coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a declining U.S. dollar index, are expected to support gold prices in the short term [2]. - It is suggested that investors consider reducing positions ahead of the holiday period to manage risks associated with potential market fluctuations [2].

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced fluctuations and fell below the 98 mark, closing down 0.24% at 97.94 due to concerns over a potential government shutdown [1][2] - Spot gold surged past the $3800 mark during Asian trading and reached a new historical high above $3830 during US trading, ultimately closing up 1.95% at $3833.76 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver also saw an increase during Asian trading but entered a range-bound phase, closing up 1.84% at $46.91 per ounce [1][2] Economic Indicators - The National Association of Realtors reported that the existing home sales index rose by 4% in August, reaching 74.7, significantly exceeding market expectations and marking the highest level in five months [3] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester indicated inflationary pressures, particularly in the service sector [3] - European Central Bank Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf stated that the ECB's rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end, emphasizing the need for vigilance regarding the full impact of US tariffs on EU imports [3] - Bank of Japan Policy Board member Asahi Noguchi noted that Japan is steadily moving towards its 2% inflation target, increasing the necessity for policy rate adjustments [3] Trading Strategies - The imminent risk of a US government shutdown has heightened market risk aversion, while the long-term outlook remains bullish for gold due to expected Fed rate cuts, expanding global government debt cycles, and a weakening dollar [4] - The bullish sentiment for silver is reinforced by its commodity and financial attributes, with tightening liquidity leading to potential short squeeze risks in COMEX silver contracts [4] - The Shanghai silver VIX index surged to a new high since May, indicating increased volatility in the silver market [4]

9月30日，国内黄金价格还在冲高，大多涨幅在15元/克。其中老庙黄金上涨18元/克，报1126元/克，为新的最高价金店；上 海中国黄金上涨10元/克，报价1029元/克，还是最低价金店。今日黄金高低价差扩大至97元/克。 昨日金价冲高主要是美国政府停摆危机以及俄乌紧张局势，推动市场避险情绪升温，金价也随之冲高。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年9月30日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1126 | 元/克 | 18 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1123 | 元/克 | 15 | 涨 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1123 | 元/克 | 15 | 涨 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1077 | 元/克 | 12 | 涨 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1123 | 元/克 | 15 | 涨 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1122 | 元/克 | 12 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1123 | 元/克 | 15 | 涨 | | 周生 ...