根据芝商所(CME)美联储观察工具显示，目前投资者预计今年还将有两次25个基点的降息，分别在10月 和12月，概率分别为92%和79%。 随着美联储放松政策、各大央行增持储备以及持续的地缘政治紧张局势助推避险需求，黄金和白银在多 重利好因素支撑下成为年内表现最佳的大宗商品之一。高盛等大型银行已明确表示看好其进一步上涨潜 力。 另外，多家机构近期上调对白银的中长期预测。汇丰银行称，受金价创纪录上涨带动，预计2026年上半 年银将进一步走高。蒙特利尔银行预计2026年白银均价将达49.50美元，比此前预测高出57%，称"强劲 的工业消耗将长期支撑银价"。Metals Focus金银业务总监Matthew Piggott认为，随着金银比率回落，白 银将在2026年突破每盎司60美元大关。 智通财经APP获悉，10月9日，受避险需求飙升与伦敦现货市场供应趋紧的双重推动，现货白银价格突 破50美元/盎司，为历史首次。浙商证券指出，当前白银面临趋势性减少的库存与贵金属牛市下日益提 升的白银投机需求。有限的库存可能难以满足日益活跃的投机需求，若贵金属市场热度持续上行，投机 资金涌入后现货紧张，可能存在短缺的做多机会。 今年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has reached a historic high, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets and tightening supply in the London spot market [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - On October 9, the spot silver price surged to over $50 per ounce, marking the highest level since the "Hunt Brothers squeeze" in the 1980s [1]. - The price continued to rise, reaching $51.06 per ounce, with a daily increase of 4.5% [1]. - Year-to-date, silver has appreciated over 70%, outperforming gold, which has also reached historical highs [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Concerns regarding U.S. fiscal risks, an overheated stock market, and threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve have led investors to seek safe-haven assets [3]. - A shortage of freely available silver in the London market has supported prices and significantly increased the cost of borrowing silver [3][6]. - The current silver futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Comex) remains below the historical record of $50.35 per ounce set in January 1980 [4]. Group 3: Industrial Demand and Supply Outlook - Silver is widely used in industrial applications, including solar panels and wind turbines, which together account for over half of silver consumption [6]. - The silver market is expected to experience a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year by 2025 [6]. - The tightness in the London silver market is nearing unprecedented levels, with high borrowing costs for the metal [6]. Group 4: Historical Context and Speculation - The recent surge in silver prices has parallels to past spikes in 2011 and 2020, with the latter seeing a 140% increase in less than five months [7]. - Historical speculation by the Hunt Brothers in 1980 led to a significant price increase, which subsequently collapsed, illustrating the volatility of the silver market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in silver prices, driven by heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid U.S. fiscal risks and supply shortages in the London silver market, has led to a significant increase in silver's value, outperforming gold this year with a rise of over 70% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Spot silver prices have surpassed $50, reaching the highest level since the Hunt brothers' short squeeze in the 1980s, with a recent peak at $51, marking a 4.5% daily increase [3][4]. - The current surge in silver prices is attributed to a combination of increased demand for safe-haven assets and tight supply conditions in the London precious metals market [3][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The London silver market is experiencing unprecedented tightness, with soaring borrowing costs and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on silver, leading to a depletion of inventories [7]. - Industrial demand for silver remains robust, particularly in solar panels and wind turbines, which account for over half of silver sales, with expectations that demand will exceed supply for the fifth consecutive year by 2025 [8]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Investors are flocking to safe-haven assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver, reflecting concerns over inflation and unsustainable fiscal deficits, a phenomenon termed "devaluation trade" [6]. - Silver's volatility and its perception as being suppressed by large banks have attracted a fervent following among retail investors, reminiscent of past surges in 2011 and 2020 [6].

10月9日晚间，受避险需求飙升与伦敦现货市场供应趋紧的双重推动，现货白银价格跃升至数十年来新 高。 【导读】白银首次突破50美元 最近每天都在见证历史。刚刚，白银的价格也创下历史纪录了。 白银既是全球投资资产，也广泛用于工业领域——包括太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机，这两项用途合计占 据了超过一半的白银消费。预计2025年白银将连续第五年供不应求。 伦敦白银市场的紧张程度接近空前，金属借贷成本高企。今年，出于美国可能对白银加征关税的担忧， 市场出现"抢运"至美国的现象，伦敦库存被抽走，可供出借的现货减少。 周四，纽约白银期货价格明显低于伦敦基准价——这与通常纽约溢价为正的格局相反，颇为罕见。 现货白银日内突破每盎司50美元，创20世纪80年代"亨特兄弟逼仓"以来最高水平。之后呈加速上涨之 势，突破50美元整数大关后继续上攻51美元/盎司关口，涨幅扩大至4.5%，报51.06美元/盎司，继续创新 高。 今年以来白银涨幅已超过70%，表现胜过创下历史新高的黄金。市场对美国财政风险、股市过热以及美 联储独立性遭受威胁的担忧，推动投资者加速寻求避险资产。 与此同时，伦敦关键市场可自由调配的白银短缺支撑了价格，也使借入白银的 ...

来源：中国基金报 中国基金报记者 泰勒 最近每天都在见证历史。刚刚，白银的价格也创下历史纪录了。 10月9日晚间，受避险需求飙升与伦敦现货市场供应趋紧的双重推动，现货白银价格跃升至数十年来新 高。 【导读】白银首次突破50美元 现货白银日内突破每盎司50美元，创20世纪80年代"亨特兄弟逼仓"以来最高水平。之后呈加速上涨之 势，突破50美元整数大关后继续上攻51美元/盎司关口，涨幅扩大至4.5%，报51.06美元/盎司，继续创新 高。 今年以来白银涨幅已超过70%，表现胜过创下历史新高的黄金。市场对美国财政风险、股市过热以及美 联储独立性遭受威胁的担忧，推动投资者加速寻求避险资产。 与此同时，伦敦关键市场可自由调配的白银短缺支撑了价格，也使借入白银的成本急剧攀升。 在纽约商品交易所（Comex），白银期货价格仍低于1980年1月创下的每盎司50.35美元的历史纪录。 白银既是全球投资资产，也广泛用于工业领域——包括太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机，这两项用途合计占 据了超过一半的白银消费。预计2025年白银将连续第五年供不应求。 伦敦白银市场的紧张程度接近空前，金属借贷成本高企。今年，出于美国可能对白银加征关税的担忧 ...

【导读】 白银首次突破50美元 中国基金报记者 泰勒 今年以来白银涨幅已超过70%，表现胜过创下历史新高的黄金。市场对美国财政风险、股市 过热以及美联储独立性遭受威胁的担忧，推动投资者加速寻求避险资产。 与此同时，伦敦关键市场可自由调配的白银短缺支撑了价格，也使借入白银的成本急剧攀 升。 在纽约商品交易所（Comex），白银期货价格仍低于1980年1月创下的每盎司50.35美元的 历史纪录。 所谓"对冲法币贬值交易"同样推升了白银：在通胀与不可持续财政赤字可能侵蚀金融资产价 值的担忧下，投资者涌向比特币、黄金与白银，推动这些资产达到新的里程碑。 白银既是全球投资资产，也广泛用于工业领域——包括太阳能电池板和风力涡轮机，这两项 用途合计占据了超过一半的白银消费。预计2025年白银将连续第五年供不应求。 最近每天都在见证历史。刚刚，白银的价格也创下历史纪录了。 10月9日晚间，受避险需求飙升与伦敦现货市场供应趋紧的双重推动，现货白银价格跃升至数 十年来新高。 现货白银日内突破 每盎司50美元， 创20世纪80年代"亨特兄弟逼仓"以来最高水平。 之 后呈加速上 涨之势， 突破50美元整数大关后继续上攻51美元/盎司 ...

现货白银价格历史首次突破每盎司50美元关口，因避险需求激增加剧了伦敦贵金属市场的供应紧张。 周四（10月9日）纽市盘初，现货白银价格涨4.4%报每盎司51.08元，升破了上世纪70年代"亨特兄弟逼空白银操纵案"时 的历史纪录。 年初至今，银价累涨近74%，跑赢了累涨54%的现货黄金。 20世纪70年代，布雷顿森林体系垮台后，美国著名石油家族邦克·亨特和赫伯特·亨特两兄弟不仅在美国期货市场上疯狂买 白银期货，还向中东王室借钱大举购入白银现货。 分析认为，这波行情反映出在美国财政风险、股市过热、美联储独立性受威胁等因素下，投资者对避险资产的强烈追 捧。 | SIVE START THE REQUEST COURSE IT SINCE 3 HISTO J WOS SELVIT ON THE DIGITIES CHRISTON OF STIRE TIGHTSCH | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Silver prices per troy ounce | Early 1970s | ...

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, breaking the $4000 per ounce mark for the first time in history, is attributed to a lack of confidence in the US dollar and increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [2][9][21]. Price Movement - On October 6, gold prices began to rise, breaking through key levels, with London spot gold reaching over $3900 and then $3950 per ounce, marking a daily increase of over $70, or 1.8% [6][11]. - On October 7, gold prices officially surpassed $4000 per ounce during Asian trading hours, with the New York Commodity Exchange reporting a peak of $4014.6 per ounce [7][9]. - By October 8, various gold brands in China saw significant price increases, with some reaching 1176 yuan per gram, reflecting a strong demand in retail [9][11]. Economic Context - The recent government shutdown in the US has led to significant economic disruptions, with 750,000 federal employees losing pay and a daily economic loss of $400 million, contributing to the perception of instability in the dollar [11][13]. - Historical patterns show that gold prices tend to rise during US government shutdowns, as seen in previous instances in 2013 and 2018 [13]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with a reported net addition of 15 tons in August alone. China's central bank has been particularly aggressive, increasing its reserves to 7406 million ounces by the end of September [17][19]. - This trend reflects a shift from holding US dollars to gold, as countries seek to secure their wealth against potential dollar depreciation [19]. Investment Strategies - For individuals looking to purchase gold, it is advised to prioritize lower-cost options and wait for potential price corrections before buying [27][31]. - Investors should avoid speculative practices and consider gold as a means of wealth preservation rather than a quick profit opportunity [31][35]. - Those who have previously invested in gold and have seen significant gains are encouraged to consider selling a portion to secure profits while maintaining some exposure [35][37].

Core Viewpoint - Silver is currently undervalued, with expectations for a continued rally driven by strong industrial demand, supply constraints, and safe-haven buying amid economic uncertainty [1][3][21]. Market Data - COMEX silver futures are trading at approximately $49.74 per ounce, with a daily high near $49.96 and a low of about $47.85. Silver spot prices are close to $49.67 per ounce [2][23]. - In India, silver futures on the MCX market are trading around Rs 1,46,850 per kilogram, closely tracking global price movements [2][23]. Demand Drivers - Industrial demand is a significant factor, with silver being essential for solar panels, electric vehicles, and semiconductors [11][12][21]. - The demand from solar energy has increased as countries invest in clean energy, while the rise of electric vehicles has heightened the need for silver in batteries and electronics [12][21]. - The technology and semiconductor sectors are also contributing to growth, as silver's properties make it vital for modern electronics [12][13]. Supply Constraints - Global mining output is struggling to meet annual demand, leading to a structural supply deficit where consumption exceeds production [14][15]. - Low warehouse inventories and high deliveries to major exchanges are tightening supply, putting upward pressure on prices [15][21]. Investor Sentiment - Investor interest in silver has surged due to economic uncertainty and currency concerns, with many treating it as a safe-haven asset similar to gold [17][18]. - The tightening silver-to-gold ratio reflects silver's stronger performance relative to gold, enhancing investor enthusiasm [18][21]. Investment Options - Silver ETFs are popular for gaining exposure, with options like iShares Silver Trust (SLV), abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (SIVR), and Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) [6][19][20]. - These ETFs provide flexibility for different risk levels, allowing investors to participate in silver's price movements without holding the physical metal [19][20]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe the current rally is supported by industrial demand, investor interest, and supply shortages, with potential for silver prices to reach $100 or more per ounce [3][21][24]. - Small fluctuations in supply or demand could significantly impact prices, indicating a critical moment for investors [21][24].

Group 1: Market Response - Israeli stocks and major global defense manufacturers have seen significant increases since the October 7, 2023 attacks, with defense stocks rising over 120% [2] - The MSCI Israel stocks index has increased by more than 80%, outperforming main global stock benchmarks by approximately 30 percentage points [3] Group 2: Credit Ratings - Israel experienced its first-ever credit rating downgrades in 2024, initiated by Moody's, followed by S&P and Fitch [4] - Concerns about Israel's credit status peaked during the conflict, with credit default swap markets indicating a potential downgrade to 'junk' status, although these fears have since diminished [5] Group 3: Economic Impact - The war has severely impacted Israel's economy, which is valued at $580 billion, with initial costs estimated at around 14 billion shekels ($3.75 billion) [6] - Economic growth nearly halted last year, but is projected to be 2.5% this year, with potential for over 5% growth next year if a "peace dividend" occurs [6] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Oil prices surged above $90 per barrel following the Hamas attacks, but quickly fell back to $75 by the end of 2023 [7] - Tensions with Iran caused another spike in oil prices in early 2024, which also subsided after initial escalations [8] Group 5: Safe-Haven Assets - Gold prices increased nearly 3% after the Hamas attacks, marking the largest weekly rise in six months, and have continued to rise since then [9]