进入5月，银行理财规模延续4月增长态势，站稳31万亿元关口。业内人士认为，近期银行理财规模上 行，主要受益于债市利率下行带动理财收益回升、存款搬家效应显现、银行销售策略调整等。新一轮存 款利率下调即将来临，银行理财规模或进一步增长，年内有望达到33万亿元。"原来三年期存款利率为 2.05%，现在只有1.65%。"上海一名程序员告诉记者，近期多家股份制银行、城商行下调了存款利率， 中长期限定期存款利率调整幅度较大，不如直接买短期限理财产品，而且流动性更好。记者从普益标准 获悉，截至5月19日，银行理财市场存续规模达31.27万亿元，较年初增长4.41%。(上海证券报) ...

今日晚间，一家国有大行人士表示，工作群里已经通知了存款利率即将下调的消息，不过不知道降多 少，让明天早上看邮件。另一家国有大行人士也告诉记者，存款利率即将下调，明天可能会发公告。 (21财经) ...

从更为细化的周期来看，今年1月，理财市场存续产品总量为40871款，随后逐月递增，2月达到41068款，3月为41249款，4月进一步攀升至41895款。 存续规模总计方面，1月规模为29.86万亿元，2月增长至29.98万亿元，逼近30万亿元大关。然而，3月存续规模出现了一次明显下滑，降至28.9万亿元，4月 理财产品存续规模上升明显，突破30万亿元达到31.1万亿元。 对理财产品存续规模上升明显的原因，市场观点认为，一方面，理财规模历来呈现"季末回落、季初回升"特征。3月季末，银行出于考核等因素，资金回表 使得理财规模短暂收缩；4月季末考核结束，资金重新回流理财市场，推动规模快速修复。 另一方面，在一季度"开门红"结束后，多家中小银行自4月起密集下调存款利率，各类型银行的挂牌3年期或5年期定期存款利率多数已跌至2%以下。而理财 收益有所回升，二者利差扩大引发"存款搬家"效应，居民将存款转移至理财产品，为理财市场带来增量资金，进而推动理财规模上升。 随着4月中小银行密集打响存款降息战，3年期、5年期存款利率跌破2%红线，"存款搬家"效应增强，银行理财规模迎来大幅回升。5月19日，北京商报记者 从普益标准获悉 ...

本次降息中，个人住房公积金贷款利率同步降低0.25个百分点。这一调整将直接减轻借款人的利息负 担。 以一笔金额100万元、期限30年、等额本息还款的首套个人住房公积金贷款为例。经过此次调整，5年以 上首套房贷款利率由2.85%降至2.6%，借款人的月供将由4136元降至4003元，减少约133元，总利息支 出将减少约4.76万元。 据悉，此次利率下调后，新发放的住房公积金贷款将执行新的利率。此前已发放的存量住房公积金贷款 利率，将在2026年1月1日起下调。 对存量房贷借款人而言，月供减少相当于增加居民收入，有助于提升居民消费能力和消费意愿。同时， 新发住房公积金贷款利率下调，能够有效降低居民购房门槛，有助于激发居民购房积极性，进一步释放 刚性和改善性住房需求潜力，有助于稳定房地产市场预期，支持房地产市场持续健康发展，进而带动上 下游产业链发展。 5月初举行的"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行发布了降准0.5个 百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低政策利率0.1个百分点，同时调降公积金贷款利率等 3类10项措施。 5月8日起，公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率由此前的1.5 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Trends - Housing prices are expected to stabilize with a slight decline, but a crash is unlikely. Policies such as lifting purchase restrictions and lowering interest rates have been implemented, but they only prevent drastic drops rather than reversing the trend. By 2025, a new normal of "stability with decline" is anticipated [4] - In 2022, national commercial housing sales area decreased by 5%-10%, and new construction area fell by 10%-15%. The enthusiasm for home buying among younger generations has significantly decreased, with over 60% of young people considering homeownership as non-essential [4] Group 2: Employment Trends - Employment pressure is high, with over 10 million new graduates entering the job market and companies becoming increasingly selective. The global youth unemployment rate is projected to reach 12.6% in 2024, with a significant decline in low-skill job opportunities [5][6] - Many individuals are turning to flexible employment options such as food delivery and ride-sharing, with the food delivery sector alone absorbing over 7 million jobs, 35% of which are held by college graduates [7] Group 3: Financial Trends - Bank interest rates have dropped significantly, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1.5%, the lowest in history. This is part of an effort to encourage spending and investment in the real economy [8][9] - Despite lower interest rates, total deposits have increased by 8%, indicating a cautious consumer sentiment. Recommendations include diversifying investments into government bonds and structured deposits, which offer higher returns [10][11] Group 4: Technology Trends - Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an integral part of daily life, with applications in various sectors, including food service and banking. For instance, AI has replaced 30% of bank tellers and is being used in delivery services [12][13] - AI primarily replaces repetitive jobs, while roles requiring creativity and interpersonal skills are becoming more valuable. Embracing AI and acquiring new skills is encouraged [15][16] Group 5: Aging Population Trends - The aging population in China is accelerating, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and older expected to rise from 16% in 2020 to 18% by 2025. This demographic shift poses challenges for pension systems as the ratio of contributors to beneficiaries declines [17][18] - Innovative solutions such as intergenerational cohabitation, where younger individuals rent rooms from elderly residents while providing assistance, are emerging as potential strategies to address aging-related issues [19][20] - The aging industry is projected to see significant innovation and growth, with opportunities in smart caregiving and senior community services, representing a trillion-dollar market [21]

"以现在的存款利率水平，跨城存款真的没有必要了，往返的交通费都补不回来。"一位储户在某社交平 台上写道。 在净息差持续承压的倒逼之下，一季度"开门红"活动结束以后，银行业整体步入了存款降息通道。 一方面，全国性商业银行虽仍保持存款挂牌利率不变，但却纷纷下调特色存款利率；另一方面，中小商 业银行加速补降，半年不到已多轮降息。 以"利息高地"民营银行为例，第一财经不完全统计发现，年内，19家民营银行已调降存款利率40余次。 这也导致大中小商业银行之间原本呈现阶梯状的存款利率日渐模糊，"去2进1"成为了银行业的整体选 择。 "去2进1"成为银行业的整体选择。 近段时间，沉寂了多时的"存款特种兵"话题在多个社交平台再次火热，只不过，这一次人们讨论的不再 是跨省存款，而是"存款特种兵"们正在走向绝迹。 当不同银行之间的存款利差无限缩窄之后，越来越多的储户开始转向存款替代品，银行理财规模呈现持 续上升态势。 正在消失的"特种兵"们 过去几年，"存款特种兵"曾多次引发现象级讨论。所谓"存款特种兵"，是指储户尤其是一些年轻储户， 为了谋求更高的存款利率，专门奔赴另一个省份或者城市的中小银行网点开户存款。 早在2021年年初， ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market experienced fluctuations in prices and inventory levels during the week of May 16, with average prices ranging from 78,155 to 78,905 CNY per ton, and macroeconomic factors influencing market sentiment [1] Price and Inventory Summary - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price fluctuated between 78,155 CNY/ton and 78,905 CNY/ton during the week, with a mid-week peak followed by a decline [1] - LME inventory decreased by 12,400 tons to 179,400 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 27,400 tons to 108,100 tons [1] - Domestic social inventory rose by 8,900 tons to 132,000 tons, and bonded zone inventory decreased by 8,000 tons to 68,800 tons [1] Macroeconomic Factors - A temporary joint statement was issued by China and the U.S., with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on China and China maintaining a 10% tariff on the U.S. [1] - The U.S. is negotiating trade agreements with Japan and the Eurozone, leading to increased market risk sentiment, with U.S. stocks and the dollar rebounding [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating on Friday [1] - In April, China's social financing increased by 1.16 trillion CNY, with new RMB loans of 280 billion CNY, and M2-M1 spread widening [1] Mining and Trade Activity - Copper concentrate transaction activity increased, with frequent bidding activities from traders and smelters [1] - The Bisha project bidding results were released, with processing fees stabilizing around -40 USD, and this week's TC price reported at -43.05 USD/ton, slightly down from last week [1] - April copper concentrate imports reached a historical high, but future spot transactions are expected to be sluggish, with TC prices remaining low [1] Smelting and Import Dynamics - Imported copper arrivals slightly increased, while domestic copper arrivals were lower [1] - As copper prices rise, the willingness to sell scrap copper increases, leading to a widening gap between refined and scrap copper prices [1] Consumption Trends - Due to May delivery, monthly differences, and high copper prices, downstream purchasing has been cautious, with demand not being stimulated and only essential purchases being made, resulting in a slight increase in domestic inventory [1] Strategy Outlook - The copper market is viewed as neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate within a range of approximately 75,000 CNY/ton to 79,500 CNY/ton in the coming week [1] - Arbitrage activities are on hold, with options positioned as short put at 74,000 CNY/ton [1]

低利率时代，"存五年不如存一年"愈发常见。 作为商业银行最为普遍的揽储工具，一直以来，定期存款以保本保息等特点受到储户们的欢迎。在此前，定期存款的期限越久，往往银行设置的年化利率越高，这 也意味着，储户将获得更多的利息收入。 然而，随着银行业息差向窄、经营承压，去年以来，存款利率历经几番下调后已进入"1"时代。更值得关注的是，定期存款存得越久、拿得越多的"铁律"也不再适 用。 5月12日，天津银行发布调整海鸥存及幸福存单产品利率的公告显示，5月13日起，该行海鸥存产品2年期、3年期、5年期年化利率分别为1.8%、2%、1.75%，其 中，2年期海鸥存年化利率较未调整前上调5个基点，3年期、5年期则分别较调整前下调5个、30个基点。 券商中国记者对比发现，5年期海鸥存产品的年利率不仅下调幅度较大，且下调后年化利率已低于同产品的2年期利率。 中小银行利率倒挂 | 产品名称 | 产品期限 | 起存金额 | | 产品利率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 调整前 | 调整后 | | 海鸥存 | 3个月 | 1万元 | 1.35% | 1.35% | | | 6个月 | ...

Economic Overview - China's GDP growth rate shows a trend of "stability with improvement," with Q1 GDP reaching 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [1] - The overall price level remains stable, with the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% in Q1 [1] Changes in Banking and Finance - Deposit interest rates are decreasing, marking the end of the "easy earnings" era for savers, with the 3-year deposit rate dropping from 3.15% to 1.9% [6] - The reduction in interest rates aims to encourage consumers to invest and spend, while also lowering financing costs for businesses and homebuyers [6] - It is recommended to invest in government bonds, bond funds, and low-risk bank wealth management products as deposit rates are expected to continue declining [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The government plans to introduce 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, averaging 1.2 million units per year, to meet the needs of low-income groups [8] - The pricing of affordable housing will be significantly lower than that of surrounding commercial housing, which is expected to divert demand from the commercial housing market and exert downward pressure on housing prices [8] Social Changes - Marriage registration processes will become simpler starting in 2025, potentially leading to a rebound in marriage rates as couples can register with just their ID cards and without needing to return to their household registration locations [10] - The expected increase in marriage registrations may help reverse the declining trend in marriage rates seen in recent years [10] Technological Advancements - The era of "AI democratization" has arrived, with AI technologies increasingly integrated into daily life, such as in delivery services, customer service, and manufacturing [12] - Businesses are encouraged to adapt to these changes by acquiring new skills to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving job market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The scale of bank wealth management has returned to historical highs, reaching 31.33 trillion yuan in May, marking a significant recovery after the redemption wave in 2022 [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Scale Trends - The bank wealth management scale typically experiences a "quarter-end decline and quarter-beginning recovery" pattern, with a notable increase of 2.05 trillion yuan in April 2025, aligning with seasonal trends [2] - The growth in April is attributed to a strong bond market and a "deposit migration" effect due to multiple small and medium-sized banks lowering deposit rates [2] - As of April 2025, the top three institutions in wealth management scale are China Merchants Bank Wealth Management, Xinyu Wealth Management, and Xinyin Wealth Management, with significant growth observed in major state-owned banks [5][6] Group 2: Yield and Performance of Wealth Management Products - The average annualized yield of pure fixed-income wealth management products rose to 3.35% in April, while the proportion of products below par decreased to 0.5% [3] - Despite a slight recovery in yields, the performance benchmark for newly issued wealth management products continues to decline, with benchmarks for various durations showing decreases compared to March [3][4] - Analysts predict that the yields of fixed-income wealth management products may drop to around 2% due to historically low bond yields [4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - A new round of deposit rate cuts is expected to drive further growth in wealth management scale, potentially reaching 33 trillion yuan by the end of the year [7] - However, challenges remain as low credit bond yields may reduce the attractiveness of wealth management products, and regulatory changes could increase net asset value volatility [7][8] - The dynamics of the stock and bond markets, along with the impact of regulatory reforms on investor experience, will significantly influence the future growth of wealth management scale [8]