对比4月中央政治局会议相关表述来看，财政政策更加积极和货币政策适度宽松的定调并未改变，但7月 中央政治局会议明确宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力，且更加强调"落实落细"，并要"充分释放政策效 应"。财政政策方面，本次会议要求"加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率"；货币政策方面，未 提及"适时降准降息"，而是要"促进社会综合融资成本下行"，并强调要"用好各项结构性货币政策工 具"。 会议还强调，要有效释放内需潜力。深入实施提振消费专项行动，在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务消 费新的增长点。在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求。高质量推动"两重"建设，激发民间投资活力，扩大有 效投资。 中国社会科学院金融研究所日前在《2025年第二季度中国宏观金融分析报告》中表示，不同于一般商品 符合同质化供给增加、价格下降的供需规律，服务消费呈现差异化供给扩大价格上升的定价逻辑。具体 而言，服务消费需求增加激励企业扩大差异化、个性化服务供给，价格上涨带动企业盈利改善和就业岗 位增加，有助于稳定就业并提高居民收入，进一步提振服务消费，推动物价循环上行。 落实"存量"也要储备"增量" 据新华社消息，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年 ...

21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 北京报道 据新华社消息，中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，决定今年10月在北京召开中国共产党第二十届中央 委员会第四次全体会议，主要议程是，中共中央政治局向中央委员会报告工作，研究关于制定国民经济 和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保 持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振 消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用。强化宏观政策取向一致性。 对比4月中央政治局会议相关表述来看，财政政策更加积极和货币政策适度宽松的定调并未改变，但7月 中央政治局会议明确宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力，且更加强调"落实落细"，并要"充分释放政策效 应"。财政政策方面，本次会议要求"加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率"；货币政策方面，未 提及"适时降准降息"，而是要"促进社会综合融资成本下行"，并强调要"用好各项 ...

Economic Performance - Shenzhen's GDP for the first half of the year reached 18,322.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] - The primary industry added value was 10.33 billion yuan, growing by 2.8%; the secondary industry added value was 6,505.56 billion yuan, growing by 3.3%; and the tertiary industry added value was 11,806.37 billion yuan, growing by 6.1% [1] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value above designated size in Shenzhen grew by 4.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing playing a crucial role [1] - Key sectors such as general equipment manufacturing, instrument manufacturing, and electrical machinery manufacturing saw growth rates of 17.1%, 8.8%, and 8.2% respectively [1] - High-tech product output continued to grow rapidly, with civil drones, industrial robots, and 3D printing equipment increasing by 59.0%, 38.0%, and 35.8% respectively [1] Service Sector Development - The added value of the service industry in Shenzhen was 11,806.37 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [2] - Key service sectors such as finance, transportation, and information technology services grew by 10.9%, 9.0%, and 8.1% respectively [2] - The Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Commerce introduced measures to promote high-quality service consumption across six areas, aiming to stimulate internal demand [2] Consumption Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Shenzhen reached 4,948.68 billion yuan, growing by 3.5% year-on-year [2] - Retail sales of daily necessities and food products showed strong growth, with increases of 10.7% and 9.1% respectively [2] - Online retail sales through designated units grew by 19.4%, indicating a shift towards e-commerce [2] Investment and Trade - Fixed asset investment in Shenzhen decreased by 10.9%, with real estate development investment down by 15.1% [3] - Infrastructure investment grew by 7.7%, while industrial technology transformation investment surged by 47.1% [3] - The total import and export volume was 21,675.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with exports down by 7.0% and imports up by 9.5% [3] Future Outlook - The overall economic performance in Shenzhen remains stable, with a focus on high-quality development despite external uncertainties [3] - Analysts suggest leveraging Shenzhen's technological advantages to promote high-tech industries and enhance domestic demand [3]

Long-term Planning - The Politburo meeting in July emphasized long-term planning, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" as a core topic for the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October[1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of new productive forces in the context of technological competition, particularly in the U.S.-China rivalry[2] Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, with a nominal GDP target of approximately 140 trillion yuan for the full year[3] - The government anticipates maintaining a steady economic trend in the second half, with a target GDP growth of around 5%[3] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The meeting called for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the effective implementation of existing policies rather than new stimulus measures[4] - As of June 2025, new local government special bond issuance exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase from 1.5 trillion yuan in the same period last year[4] Domestic Consumption - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52% to the economy in the first half of 2025, with service trade retail growing by 5.3% and goods retail by 5.1%[7] - The government aims to enhance service consumption as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, supported by policies aimed at improving living standards[7] Industry Capacity Management - The meeting stressed the need for capacity governance in key industries, particularly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, to eliminate outdated production capacity[8] - Regulatory measures will focus on enhancing industry standards and preventing redundant capacity construction[8] Foreign Trade Support - China's exports to the U.S. saw a decline from a growth rate of 5.6% in March to -9.9% in June, while overall export growth remained at 7.2%[10] - The government is implementing financial policies to support foreign trade enterprises affected by external pressures, focusing on relief rather than filling external demand gaps[10] Capital Market Development - The government aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 7.8% by the end of July 2025[12] - Future policies will support technology-driven and growth-oriented enterprises, with expectations for increased dividend payouts to attract long-term capital[12]

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need to effectively unleash domestic demand potential and implement actions to boost consumption, focusing on both goods and services [1] - The importance of expanding consumption is highlighted as a key factor in stabilizing economic growth amid increasing external uncertainties [1] - The government has previously outlined plans to enhance consumption and investment efficiency, aiming for comprehensive expansion of domestic demand [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce acknowledges a current shortage in high-quality service supply and is implementing targeted measures for both external and internal openings [3] - The focus on external opening includes expanding pilot programs in sectors like healthcare to attract more quality services, while internal measures aim to support high-quality service consumption development [3] - Research indicates that service consumption will be a crucial area for future growth, with expectations for increased policy support in the second half of the year to stimulate demand and optimize supply [3]

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" is the imbalance between manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels, with a 0.2 billion increase, while service employment showed a shortfall of 0.4 billion compared to potential levels [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is notably below demand, with a potential investment gap of approximately 1.5 trillion [18][106] Group 2 - There is a significant gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita service consumption gap is projected to be 2,093 yuan, indicating a substantial unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - The long-term direction to address "involution" involves shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences suggest a transition in consumer demand from goods to services [4][107] - As GDP per capita reaches 10,000 to 30,000 USD and urbanization increases, service consumption typically rises, with a historical annual increase of about 0.6% [4][35] Group 4 - Policies are being implemented to enhance service consumption, investment, and exports, marking a shift in economic growth drivers from manufacturing to services [6][80] - Recent policy measures include extending legal holidays and encouraging more leisure time for residents, which is expected to boost service demand [6][108] - Service investment is seeing improvements due to regulatory relaxations and increased government support, with a notable growth rate of 15.3% in May, nearing the highest level since 2017 [91][109]

Economic Growth Overview - In the first half of the year, the province's enterprise sales revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with the second quarter showing an improvement to 2.8%, marking a new high in nearly four quarters, indicating a positive economic trend [1] - The growth was driven by the "Su Super" events, which stimulated consumption in sports, cultural tourism, and retail sectors, alongside the continuous development of advanced manufacturing and new energy sectors [1] Impact of "Su Super" Events - The "Su Super" events significantly boosted the province's sports industry, with sales revenue from related football clubs increasing by over 42 million yuan in June, raising the overall sports sector's sales growth by 5 percentage points [2] - Cultural tourism saw remarkable growth, with railway passenger transport and air travel sales revenue increasing by 90.7% and 46.5% respectively in June, while arts performances and cultural activities surged by 85.1% and 109.3% [2] - Retail sales in June rose by 5.8%, with notable increases in daily household appliances (28.3%), computer equipment (19.5%), and supermarkets (18.5%) [2] Local Business Growth - The Jiangsu Sports Exhibition Center attracted over 60,000 fans, generating direct revenue of over 360,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.34% [2] - The East Sea Crystal Cultural Tourism Area experienced a 111.45% increase in visitor numbers during a match, with sales of crystal products exceeding 20 million yuan, a 36% increase compared to regular weekends [3] - The hospitality and catering sectors in Rugao saw a sales increase of 45.57% on match day, with surrounding commercial complexes also reporting significant sales growth [3] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The province's industrial enterprises reported a 4.5% increase in sales revenue in the first half of the year, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.8% [4] - The Tai Zhou Kangqian Machinery Manufacturing Co. achieved over 200 million yuan in sales, with a projected annual revenue of 550 million yuan, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [4] - Jiangsu Hengtong High Voltage Submarine Cable Co. made significant advancements in technology, securing a global first in submarine cable production, with sales expected to reach 2.632 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an 11.25% increase [4][5] New Energy and Technology Development - Twelve out of sixteen advanced manufacturing clusters in the province reported positive sales growth, with new energy and technology becoming key drivers of economic growth [6] - The first bio-jet fuel export trial in the country was successfully launched, showcasing a new model of green energy development [6] - Despite a 35% decline in overall orders due to international trade conditions, Huaxin Electronics reported an 11.62% increase in sales, attributed to high-value patented products and tax incentives [6] Future Outlook - Jiangsu Xinhantong Shipbuilding Co. reported a 10% increase in sales revenue, reaching 1.8 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with plans to deliver 23 vessels this year [7] - The company is benefiting from tax incentives exceeding 20 million yuan, which will be reinvested into production facility upgrades [7]

Core Insights - The article argues that China is significantly undervalued as a service consumption powerhouse, with a notable disparity in service pricing compared to the United States [2][13] Group 1: Consumption Comparison - In the first half of 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods in the U.S. reached $420.15 billion, while China's was $341.68 billion, making China's figure 81.32% of the U.S. total [3] - The U.S. service consumption total is projected to reach $13.6 trillion in 2024, accounting for 69% of total consumption and 67% of GDP [4] - China's service consumption total is only $2.15 trillion, representing 46% of total consumption and 39%-40% of GDP, indicating a significant gap in service consumption scale [4] Group 2: Sector-Specific Analysis - The healthcare sector shows the most pronounced difference, with U.S. per capita healthcare spending at $9,900 compared to China's $350, a 28-fold difference despite similar life expectancy [4][6] - Price comparisons for medical services reveal that U.S. costs are substantially higher, with CT scans costing $5,000 in the U.S. versus $120-$120 in China, a difference of 90-233 times [5] - In the e-commerce sector, China's express delivery service prices are only one-seventh of those in the U.S., with 2024 express delivery volume in China reaching 175.08 billion packages, a 21.5% increase [7] Group 3: Dining and Hospitality - In the food delivery sector, China's average order frequency is double that of the U.S., with a per capita annual order volume of 20.7 compared to 12 in the U.S. [8] - The hotel industry in China has expanded significantly, with 348,717 hotels and a total of 21.5 million rooms, compared to approximately 85,000 hotels and 4.43 million rooms in the U.S. [11][12] - Average daily rates (ADR) for hotels in China are approximately $40, while in the U.S. they are around $165, indicating a substantial price difference [12] Group 4: Overall Consumption Trends - The article concludes that the perception of Chinese consumers as not enjoying services is misleading; rather, the low pricing of services in China contributes to the underestimation of its service consumption potential [13]

Core Viewpoint - The report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences indicates that while the Chinese economy is stabilizing, persistent low prices are dragging down nominal economic growth, widening the gap between macro and micro economic conditions [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a year-on-year growth rate around 0% for 27 consecutive months, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, marking 33 months of negative growth [1] - The GDP deflator has recorded negative year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters, surpassing the seven quarters of negative growth during the 1998 Asian financial crisis [1] Causes of Low Prices - The low price environment is attributed to the pains of transitioning from old to new economic drivers. While the impact of durable goods and rental prices on CPI has eased, weakened income expectations are constraining service consumption growth, preventing a virtuous cycle of consumption expansion, price increase, and wage growth [1] - Supply fluctuations, weak domestic demand, and shrinking external demand are increasing downward pressure on PPI, particularly in midstream chemical products and downstream essential consumer goods [1] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests five key recommendations to address the low price situation, including increasing nominal fiscal deficit rates, implementing inflation-targeted monetary policies, and stabilizing real estate prices to mitigate liquidity risks for major property firms [2] - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing service consumption to alleviate persistent low prices, as service consumption tends to exhibit differentiated supply expansion and price increases, unlike the homogeneous supply of general goods [2][4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus of macroeconomic regulation will be on strengthening the coordination of fiscal, monetary, industrial, employment, and social security policies to promote economic supply-demand balance and reasonable price recovery [4] - It advocates for the inclusion of a broad price index, covering general prices (CPI, PPI, and GDP deflator) and asset prices (housing and stock prices), into macroeconomic regulation targets, and encourages the use of unconventional counter-cyclical adjustment policies [4]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.96%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 17,419.14 billion yuan [2][6] - In terms of industry performance, the defense and military, non-bank financial, and pharmaceutical sectors led the gains, while coal, steel, and transportation sectors lagged behind [2][6] - The report highlights a significant differentiation in performance within the social service sector, with 31 listed companies having released their 2025 semi-annual earnings forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 39%. The overall pre-profit rate stands at 55%, ranking fourth among the eight major consumption sectors [8][9] Industry Analysis - The social service sector is experiencing a divergence in performance, with 17 out of 31 companies expected to be profitable in the first half of 2025. The pre-profit rate of 55% indicates a competitive position within the consumption sectors [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption as key strategies for supporting stable economic growth. The potential of lower-tier markets continues to be a significant factor in solidifying the consumption base [8] - The education sector shows signs of marginal improvement, with a pre-profit rate of 63% and a notable decrease in the proportion of loss-making companies. Conversely, the tourism sector faces challenges, with a pre-profit rate of only 36% [11]