证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 服务消费是提高居民消费率的主要抓手之一 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 47 期） 频率：每周 当前，释放服务消费潜力对提高居民消费的边际空间更大，地方政府的手段更 多。因此，我们预计未来五年服务消费是提高居民消费率的关键因素。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 53 ——央国企整合呈现多元模 式，契合"十五五"盘活主 线》2025-12-15 2、《大国协调下的地缘冲突— ——国际时政周评》2025-12-14 3、《还需一点催化剂——宏观 与大类资产周报》2025-12-14 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 数据显示，2024 年我国居民消费率仅为 39.9%，同年美国居民消费率为 67.9%，韩国居民消费率也比我国高接近 10 个百分点左右，数据为 48.5%。"十五五"规划明确指出要提高居民消费率，这对于构建强大的国 内市场具有决定性的意 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a "V"-shaped trend on December 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.55% at 3867.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.1% at 13112.09 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.77% at 3137.8 points. The total market turnover was 1.79 trillion yuan, a decrease of 324.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 2900 stocks declining [1]. Sector Highlights - **Consumer Sector Surge**: The consumer sector saw significant gains, particularly in the liquor and dairy segments. Notable stocks included Zhongrui Co., which achieved two consecutive trading limits, and dairy companies like Huangshi Group and Sunshine Dairy, which hit trading limits [1]. - **Insurance Sector Strength**: The insurance sector showed resilience, with China Ping An rising nearly 5%, reaching a four-year high. Other major insurers also saw substantial gains following a regulatory adjustment that lowered risk factors for investments in certain indices [3]. - **Retail Sector Activity**: The retail sector remained active, with Baida Group achieving three consecutive trading limits. The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to enhance consumer spending, contributing to the sector's positive performance [4]. Institutional Insights - **CITIC Securities**: The firm noted that while external demand may face challenges, there are increasing factors to expect growth in domestic demand. The focus remains on expanding the internal circulation of the economy [5]. - **CITIC Construction Investment**: The firm believes the underlying logic of a bull market persists, driven by structural trends and capital market reforms. A new wave of market activity is anticipated as the year-end approaches [6]. - **Industrial Outlook**: Industrial trends are expected to shift from a technology-centric focus to a more balanced approach across various sectors, with an emphasis on artificial intelligence, new energy, and service consumption as key areas of growth [7][8].

中新社北京12月15日电 (记者 陈溯)中国国家统计局15日公布，11月全国社会消费品零售总额同比增长 1.3%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖当天表示，近期社会消费品零售总额增速有所回落，主要因为去 年同期基数较高。从累计增速来看，今年社会消费品零售总额增长好于去年。 来源：中国新闻网 国家统计局：今年中国社会消费品零售总额累计增长好于去年 付凌晖在国务院新闻办公室举行的发布会上表示，今年以来，提振消费专项行动深入实施，消费品以旧 换新政策发力显效，带动了消费潜能释放。1至11月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于 上年同期，也快于上年全年。 从11月份情况看，付凌晖表示，中国市场销售继续扩大，服务消费增长较快，新型消费继续壮大。 付凌晖表示，1至11月，中国服务零售额同比增长5.4%，增速比上月加快0.1个百分点，连续3个月回 升，且快于商品零售额增速，这意味着服务消费在全部消费中的比重提升。中国居民精神文化需求不断 扩大。1至11月，文体休闲服务类零售额保持两位数增长，网络影视等网上娱乐消费持续活跃，服务消 费潜力继续释放。 此外，新型消费稳步成长，线上消费、新兴消费发展向好。1至11月，实物商品 ...

新华财经北京12月15日电（记者安娜）消费不仅关系着经济发展，也和民生改善紧密相关。记者15日从 国家统计局获悉，1至11月份，我国社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于上年同期，也快于 上年全年。 "今年以来，提振消费专项行动深入实施，消费品以旧换新政策发力显效，促进了消费规模扩大，消费 结构升级、消费动能焕新，带动了消费潜能释放。"国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖当日在国新办发布会 上说。 二是商品消费持续扩大，品质消费带动增强。促消费政策效果继续显现，11月份限额以上单位文化办公 用品类、通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长11.7%和20.6%，继续保持较快增长。消费品质要求逐步 提升，食品等基本生活消费较快增长。11月份限额以上单位粮油食品类零售额同比增长6.1%。在消费 升级带动下，美容化妆、金银饰品等相关商品销售增势较好。11月份限额以上单位化妆品类、金银珠宝 类商品零售额同比分别增长6.1%、8.5%。 三是新型消费稳步成长，引领作用日益显现。即时零售、直播电商等消费新模式快速成长，线上消费、 新兴消费发展向好。1至11月份，实物商品网上零售额同比增长5.7%，增速快于社会消费品零售总额1.7 个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall consumer market in November remains stable, with continued expansion in consumption scale and rapid growth in service consumption, indicating a trend of consumption quality improvement and upgrade [1][5]. Group 1: Consumer Market Overview - In the first eleven months, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year, surpassing both the growth rate of the same period last year and the overall growth rate for the entire previous year [3]. - The recent slowdown in the growth rate of retail sales is attributed to a high base from the previous year [3]. - Service consumption has shown rapid growth, with service retail sales increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales [3][5]. Group 2: Service Consumption - The growth in service consumption is reflected in the development of cultural and sports consumption, with retail sales in this category maintaining double-digit growth [4]. - The retail sales of communication and information services increased by over 10% year-on-year [4]. - New consumption scenarios and supply in cultural and sports activities, such as ice and snow sports, have contributed to the rapid growth of related service retail [3][4]. Group 3: Goods Consumption - The consumption of goods continues to expand, with significant growth in quality consumption driven by promotional policies [4]. - In November, retail sales of cultural and office supplies and communication equipment increased by 11.7% and 20.6% year-on-year, respectively [4]. - Retail sales of food and basic living necessities also saw a notable increase, with grain and oil food retail sales growing by 6.1% [4]. Group 4: New Consumption Trends - New consumption models such as instant retail and live e-commerce are rapidly growing, with online retail sales of physical goods increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, outpacing the overall retail sales growth by 1.7 percentage points [5]. - The share of online retail in total retail sales reached 25.9% [5]. - Emerging trends in digital, green, and health consumption are becoming new hotspots, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [5].

每经AI快讯，据中国网直播，12月15日，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，今年以来，提振消费专 项行动深入实施，消费品以旧换新政策发力显效，促进了消费规模扩大，消费结构升级、消费动能焕 新，带动了消费潜能释放。1-11月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于上年同期，也 快于上年全年。近期社会消费品零售总额增速有所回落，主要是因为去年同期基数较高。从累计增速来 看，今年的社会消费品零售总额增长好于去年。从11月份情况来看，市场销售继续扩大，服务消费增长 较快，新型消费继续壮大。 每经AI快讯，据中国网直播，12月15日，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，今年以来，提振消费专 项行动深入实施，消费品以旧换新政策发力显效，促进了消费规模扩大，消费结构升级、消费动能焕 新，带动了消费潜能释放。1-11月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于上年同期，也 快于上年全年。近期社会消费品零售总额增速有所回落，主要是因为去年同期基数较高。从累计增速来 看，今年的社会消费品零售总额增长好于去年。从11月份情况来看，市场销售继续扩大，服务消费增长 较快，新型消费继续壮大。 ...

营运方面，该行预期明年首季海底捞的翻桌率将有正面势头，料经营利润率压力将于今年下半年逐步纾 缓，并于明年进一步恢复，受惠于公司在今年完成店铺改造，该行指，海底捞仍然是其在中国餐饮板块 的首选，明年将更看好休闲餐饮企业而非快餐公司。 花旗发布研报称，刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议中，政府强调计划清理消费领域不合理限制措施，释放服 务消费潜力。该行预期政府将在2026年放宽部分反奢华消费措施，而休闲餐饮企业如海底捞(06862)， 较快餐企业更能受惠。该行对海底捞开启30天正面催化观察，现予目标价18.5港元及"买入"评级。 ...

营运方面，该行预期明年首季海底捞的翻桌率将有正面势头，料经营利润率压力将于今年下半年逐步纾 缓，并于明年进一步恢复，受惠于公司在今年完成店铺改造，该行指，海底捞仍然是其在中国餐饮板块 的首选，明年将更看好休闲餐饮企业而非快餐公司。 智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议中，政府强调计划清理消费领域不合 理限制措施，释放服务消费潜力。该行预期政府将在2026年放宽部分反奢华消费措施，而休闲餐饮企业 如海底捞(06862)，较快餐企业更能受惠。该行对海底捞开启30天正面催化观察，现予目标价18.5港元 及"买入"评级。 ...

国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖在发布会上表示，今年以来，提振消费专项行动深入实施，消费品以旧换 新政策发力显效，促进了消费规模扩大，消费结构升级、消费动能焕新，带动了消费潜能释放。1-11月 份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于上年同期，也快于上年全年。近期社会消费品零 售总额增速有所回落，主要是因为去年同期基数较高。从累计增速来看，今年的社会消费品零售总额增 长好于去年。从11月份情况来看，市场销售继续扩大，服务消费增长较快，新型消费继续壮大。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic consumption as a primary task for the upcoming year, highlighting that consumption is the largest component of domestic demand [1] - To stimulate consumption, it is essential for the public to have stable employment and increasing income, making job stability a critical performance indicator for local governments [1] Group 2 - There is a need for a diverse range of consumable content beyond basic necessities, with a focus on expanding service consumption and removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [3] - People must have time to consume, as the current societal trend shows an increase in working hours and pressure, which limits their ability to engage in consumption [3] Group 3 - A positive consumer sentiment is crucial, particularly regarding major purchases like housing, where current low confidence in housing prices and job stability is hindering buying intentions [5] - The government should take actions to stabilize public expectations and reduce uncertainties in the market to encourage consumer spending [5]