Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered an upward platform period, with investor sentiment leaning towards risk aversion before the holiday, but a potential recovery in trading willingness post-holiday due to reduced macro uncertainties [1] Market Analysis - The market is expected to experience a period of low-volume fluctuations as the positive feedback from capital continues and the fundamentals improve [1] - After the holiday, there is a window for policy and performance layout as investor trading willingness is likely to recover [1] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to make slight adjustments to their positions, focusing on low-position sectors such as Hong Kong technology, domestic computing power, and robotics [1] - The report highlights the importance of sectors benefiting from "anti-involution," including chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer goods companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes a positive outlook for the A-share market in the fourth quarter, driven by strong economic fundamentals and a focus on new productivity sectors such as technology and "anti-involution" strategies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Drivers - The A-share market has shown a "slow bull" trend, rising from around 3300 to above 3800 points this year, with sectors like innovative drugs, humanoid robots, and computing power leading the way [2]. - The strong performance of the A-share market since April is attributed to multiple supportive factors, including favorable policies, industrial advancements, and increased capital participation [8][19]. - Key drivers of the current market rally include systematic improvements in innovation capabilities, strong policy support, and the trend of technology companies expanding globally [19][20]. Group 2: Investment Focus and Sector Trends - The investment focus for the fourth quarter includes technology growth sectors and "anti-involution" strategies, reflecting a shift of capital towards industries supported by national strategies [21][22]. - The structural differentiation in market styles indicates a transition from traditional growth models to sectors with clear industrial trends, particularly in hard technology fields like AI and semiconductors [22][23]. - The article suggests that the market is likely to see a new round of main rising trends, with a focus on policy and industrial developments [24][25]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The economic fundamentals in China exhibit strong resilience, and the market is expected to maintain upward potential, particularly in new productivity sectors like AI [25][26]. - The fourth quarter is anticipated to witness a more balanced market style, with growth and value sectors both receiving attention from investors [28][29]. - The article highlights the importance of monitoring policy developments and industry progress, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its implications for investment opportunities [27][30]. Group 4: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market has shown a strong upward trend this year, outperforming major global indices, and is expected to continue benefiting from favorable liquidity conditions and asset revaluation [34][35]. - Key sectors to watch in the Hong Kong market include technology, healthcare, and consumer services, which are poised for recovery and growth [36][37]. - The article notes that the increasing number of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong will enhance liquidity and investment opportunities in the region [37][38].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [13]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a notable resistance at 3856 points for the Shanghai Composite Index, while sectors such as aerospace, wind power equipment, automotive, and chemical fibers performed well [2][3]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.72 times and 50.62 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][12]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 21,663 billion, indicating a robust market activity above the median of the past three years [3][12]. - Government policies are expected to support economic recovery, with a focus on consumer promotion and real estate stabilization, providing a solid foundation for the market [3][12]. - The market is anticipated to present new investment opportunities amidst fluctuations, with a recommendation to focus on sectors like chemical fibers, aerospace, automotive, and wind power equipment [3][12]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On September 26, the A-share market faced resistance and exhibited slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3828.11 points, down 0.65% [6][7]. - The trading volume for the day was 21,663 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous trading day [6][12]. - Over 60% of stocks declined, with notable gains in wind power equipment, chemical fibers, fertilizers, insurance, and pesticides, while sectors like gaming, consumer electronics, and software development saw significant declines [6][8]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with a focus on sectors such as chemical fibers, aerospace, automotive, and wind power equipment for potential investment opportunities [3][12]. - Investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid blind chasing of high prices, while optimizing their investment strategies based on market conditions [3][12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A-share major indices generally rose this week, with the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index surging over 6%. Most of the four stock index futures increased, and large-cap blue-chip stocks performed well. Market trading activity declined slightly. - Overseas, the final value of the US Q2 GDP unexpectedly rose, and the number of initial jobless claims last week fell more than expected, supporting the US dollar and pressuring the RMB. - Domestically, economic fundamentals weakened in August, with slower growth in retail sales, fixed - asset investment, imports and exports, and industrial added - value, and the real estate market continued to deteriorate. The unchanged LPR was in line with market expectations. - Overall, the domestic market was in a macro - data vacuum this week, with few domestic and overseas news disturbances. The market showed a random walk pattern, and trading was relatively quiet due to approaching holidays. The market is expected to remain volatile before new policies are implemented. It is recommended to wait and see [5][94]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2512 rose 1.36% this week, IH2512 rose 1.06%, IC2512 rose 1.37%, and IM2512 fell 0.02%. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.07%, the Shanghai 50 Index rose 1.07%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.98%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.55% [8]. 3.2 News Overview - On September 22, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%. - The market capitalization of the A - share technology sector accounts for over 1/4, and as of the end of August, long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of A - share floating market capitalization, a 32% increase from the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan. Foreign investors held 3.4 trillion yuan of A - share market capitalization. - The final annualized quarterly growth rate of the US Q2 GDP was 3.8%, up from the revised 3.3%, and the core PCE price index was revised up from 2.5% to 2.6% [11]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Main Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.06%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 6.47%, the SME 100 Index rose 1.75%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.96% [14]. - **Overseas Main Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 fell 0.89%, the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.03%, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.57%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 0.69% [15]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors declined. Social services, comprehensive, and commercial retail sectors weakened significantly, while power equipment and non - ferrous metals sectors led the gains. - **Industry Sector Main - Force Fund Flows**: All industry main - force funds had net outflows, with a large net outflow from the electronics sector. - **SHIBOR Short - Term Interest Rates**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates showed a mixed performance, and capital prices remained at a low level. - **Restricted Share Unlock and Northbound Capital Transactions**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 1.1265 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted share unlocks was 6.7358 billion yuan, and northbound capital transactions totaled 1180.04 billion yuan. - **Futures Basis and Net Positions**: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM strengthened [39][44][48][52]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to remain volatile before new policies are implemented. It is recommended to wait and see [94].

大摩指出，国庆长假临近及宏观经济动力减慢的背景下，估计A股市场情绪或会继续于较宽阔区间内波 动，目前不再预期A股可大幅跑赢港股，仍憧憬当局在未来数星期至第四季内将推出基建项目财政融资 及清偿地方政府应付款等适度刺激措施。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，在十一国庆黄金周长假期来临前，A股市场情绪预料将维 持平稳，相信投资者倾向在长假期前保留更多流动性。展望后市，考虑到基本面正在改善，该行维持审 慎乐观的看法，但预期A股市场将与离岸市场表现看齐。南向交易在9月18日至24日期间录得50亿美元 净流入，年初至今及本月至今的净流入分别达到1,420亿美元及172亿美元。 ...

预计四季度A股或将维持高位向上，但也需警惕震荡风险。一是增量资金入市仍有空间。二是上市公司 基本面有望结构性改善，关注科技、周期等板块机会。不过，需警惕前期上涨过快及内外部不确定性增 加带来的调整风险。（中经记者 谭志娟） 0:00 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the ChiNext index rising over 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index stabilizing above the 3850-point mark [1][2] - The liquidity environment remains loose, with continuous inflow of funds into the equity market, supported by the gradual shift of household savings towards capital markets and increased foreign investment in A-shares [1][2] - The market is currently in a phase of rebalancing and expectation reconstruction, with a divergence between economic recovery and bullish sentiment [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend in the short term, with a focus on policy, capital flow, and external market changes [1] - The upcoming National Day holiday is anticipated to lead to a seasonal decline in market activity, but the orderly implementation of policies this year is expected to support performance post-holiday [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually showing a slow bull trend one year after the "924" policy was introduced, with significant influences from both domestic and international factors, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share market has accumulated approximately 800 points in gains recently, indicating its attractiveness to international capital despite some foreign exits, such as BlackRock [1]. - Concerns have arisen regarding the pace of the market's rebound, with around 130 companies announcing share reduction plans since early September [2]. Group 2: Structural Issues - A fundamental contradiction in the A-share market is the dominance of major shareholders, which has led to wealth distribution inequities, with large shareholders benefiting disproportionately compared to retail investors [2]. - The suggestion is made to implement a "preset circulation bottom price" mechanism to guide major shareholders' behavior rather than imposing restrictions on share reductions [1][2]. Group 3: Government Intervention - The primary driver of the recent market recovery is the entry of state-owned funds, reflecting the government's commitment to stabilizing the market [2]. - It is recommended that market adjustments should rely on stabilization fund operations rather than allowing major shareholders to reduce their holdings to artificially create a "slow bull" market [2]. Group 4: Reform and Governance - There is a noted hesitation in the execution of policies addressing major shareholder governance issues, which requires further reflection [2]. - The importance of recognizing the need for institutional reforms to correct historical inequities in the market is emphasized, with a call for relevant departments to firmly advance these reforms [2].

Core Viewpoint - Since September 24 of last year, the performance of public funds has rebounded significantly, with nearly 90% of funds achieving positive returns, and many funds showing substantial gains of over 100% and even 200% [1][6]. Fund Performance Summary - The ordinary stock fund index has led with a 60.33% increase, while enhanced index funds, mixed equity funds, and passive index funds have all risen by over 50% [6]. - Notable funds include: - Debon Xin Xing Value Flexible Allocation Mixed A with a 271.51% increase - CITIC Construction Investment North Exchange Selected Two-Year Open Mixed A with a 268.41% increase - Other funds with over 200% gains include China Europe Digital Economy Mixed Initiation A and Yongying Advanced Manufacturing Smart Selection Mixed Initiation A [4][6]. Market Outlook - Current index levels are at a phase high, suggesting a potential for sideways market movement. However, structural opportunities remain, particularly in sectors aligned with industrial trends such as artificial intelligence, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption [5][7]. - The rapid advancement of industrial upgrades and the release of policy dividends are expected to provide ongoing momentum for the A-share market [7]. - The stability of Sino-US relations is anticipated to lower the risk of overseas policy impacts on the domestic equity market in the coming quarters, reinforcing a bullish outlook for the mid-term equity market [7].

Market Overview - On September 25, the A-share market experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3866 points[2] - The total trading volume for both markets reached 23,920 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 15.72 times and 50.19 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as power equipment, gaming, computer equipment, and non-ferrous metals showed strong performance, while precious metals, jewelry, shipping ports, and gas sectors lagged[3] - Over 70% of stocks in the two markets declined, with gaming, power equipment, and energy metals leading the gains[7] Investment Strategy - The market is expected to maintain a steady upward trend amidst fluctuations, with a focus on semiconductor, power equipment, computer equipment, and non-ferrous metals sectors for short-term investment opportunities[3] - External factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are likely to benefit A-share performance, with expectations of a stronger yuan and improved market risk appetite[3] Economic Support - The government is committed to consolidating economic recovery, with multiple favorable policies in place to support consumption and stabilize the real estate market[3] - Continuous net inflows from foreign investments in domestic stocks and bonds reflect ongoing confidence in Chinese assets[3]