美联储主席鲍威尔：与许多立法者私下交流时认为，美联储在利率政策方面采取的措施是正确的。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国克利夫兰联储主席哈马克周二表示，当前的利率水平"仅具适度限制性"，美联 储可能会在一段时间内维持借贷成本不变。 尽管在6月的会议上公布的最新利率预测显示，美联储官员中位数预期今年将有两次降息，但观点存在 明显分歧，有7位官员预计全年不会降息。 经济韧性增强 维持利率不变风险较低 哈马克认为，美国经济展现出较强韧性，因此当前维持利率不变所面临的风险相对较小。她指出，目前 尚未看到足以促使降息的经济疲软迹象，但也"密切关注这一可能性"。 在美联储上次议息会议之后，其他官员也陆续表达了对未来政策调整时间表的不同看法。联储理事克里 斯托弗·沃勒以及监管副主席米歇尔·鲍曼(两位均为特朗普任命的官员)表示，如果通胀继续受控，最早 在7月就可能考虑降息。而旧金山联储主席戴利则认为，秋季降息的可能性更高。 鲍威尔强调耐心等待更多数据 哈马克在伦敦一场会议的预备发言中指出，尽管近期通胀已有所缓解，美联储距离实现其2%的通胀目 标仍"有一段路要走"。她还强调，目前的通胀数据具有滞后性，未必能准确反映当前经济的最新变化， 包括近期油价上涨所带来的通胀预期风险。 截至发稿，美联储主席鲍威尔正在出席众议院金融服 ...

据报道，美联储官员哈马克表示，目前没有任何紧迫的理由降息；利率政策可能在相当长一段时间内保 持不变；实现通胀率达到2%的目标仍有一定距离。 ...

美联储哈玛克：由于美联储寻求明确指引，利率政策可能在相当长一段时间内保持不变。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will defend the decision to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time during congressional hearings this week, amidst ongoing pressure from former President Trump for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Powell is expected to reiterate that the Federal Reserve is in a favorable position to wait for more economic data before considering any rate changes, emphasizing the need for caution [2][3]. - Economists predict that the core inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve may have only risen by 0.1% for the third consecutive month in May, marking the mildest inflation performance since 2020 [2][3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of tariffs and interest rate policy are highlighted, with two governors indicating potential support for a rate cut in July [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Conflict Impact - Powell is likely to face questions regarding the economic implications of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, especially after the U.S. engaged directly in the conflict [3]. - The price of WTI crude oil initially surged above $78 but later fell back to around $66, reflecting investor concerns about supply risks [3]. - Powell has indicated that while energy prices may rise during Middle Eastern turmoil, such fluctuations typically do not have lasting effects on inflation [3]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Independence - Republican lawmakers are expected to pressure Powell for clear reasoning behind the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, although not all Republicans will adopt a confrontational approach [5][6]. - Some Democratic lawmakers may support Powell, warning that the Federal Reserve's independence is under threat from Republican pressures [6]. - Powell is anticipated to maintain a calm demeanor during the hearings, emphasizing that Federal Open Market Committee decisions are based on careful, objective analysis [6]. Group 4: Banking Regulation Agenda - Observers will assess Powell's views on ongoing regulatory changes, as the White House pushes for a relaxation of regulations [7]. - The Federal Reserve is considering proposals to lower the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, a rule introduced in 2008 that requires banks to hold a certain amount of capital relative to their assets [7]. - Powell may also need to address a proposal from Senator Ted Cruz to prohibit the Federal Reserve from paying interest on bank reserves, which could impact the Fed's ability to control short-term interest rates [7].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 欧元区：6月PMI初值（6/23） ，6月消费者信心指数终值（6/27）。 日本：6月PMI初值（6/23） ，6月东京CPI数据（6/27），5月失业率和求人倍率（6/27），5月零售销售 （6/27）。 本周海外重要经济数据和事件回顾 美国：1） 美联储6月FOMC会议维持利率不变，符合预期。 2）5月零售销售低于预期 ，环比-0.9%，预 期-0.6%，前值从0.1%下修至-0.1%，除汽车外的零售销售环比-0.3%，预期0.2%，前值从0.1%下修至0%。 3）5月工业产值低于预期 ，环比-0.2%，预期0%，前值从0上修至0.1%。 4）5月进口价格指数高于预期 ， 环比0%，预期-0.2%，前值0.1%。 5） 5月新屋开工折年125.6万套，预期135万套，前值从136.1万套上修至 139.2万套。 欧元区：5月CPI终值符合预期 。CPI同比终值1.9%，预期1.9%，初值从1.9%上修为2.2%，前值2.2%；核 心CPI同比2.3%，初值2.3%，前值2.3%。 日本：1） 日央行6月会议维持 ...

Group 1 - Recent trends in US Treasury yields show a decline in short-term rates and a slight increase in long-term rates, indicating a dual market dynamic of outlook and supply-demand mismatch [1] - As of June 20, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.38%, down 2 basis points from two weeks prior, while the 2-year yield also fell by 2 basis points and the 30-year yield rose by 1 basis point [1] - The US fiscal surplus turned negative in May, resulting in a deficit of $316 billion, with a 12-month cumulative deficit of $2 trillion, highlighting ongoing fiscal pressures [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% on June 19, with increasing internal divisions potentially leading to communication risks regarding future policy [1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance increased by $7.7 billion over two weeks, while the Fed's reverse repo tool expanded by $33.3 billion, tightening short-term dollar liquidity [1] - Market conditions are facing risks from rapid oil price increases and tightening liquidity [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's semiannual monetary policy report indicates a significant reduction in immigration since mid-2024, leading to a slowdown in labor supply growth, which helps maintain balance in the labor market as job growth cools down [1] - Despite the slowdown, the current U.S. job market is described as "robust," with moderate job growth and low unemployment rates, indicating a return to balance in the labor market compared to pre-pandemic levels [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains flexibility in its current monetary policy, keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5% while awaiting clearer economic signals before making further decisions [1] Group 2 - Divergent views among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate direction were expressed, with some favoring a rate cut in the fall while others suggest a more aggressive approach as early as July [2] - Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that there is no urgent need for a rate cut, citing the resilience of the job market and consumer spending, while also being cautious about inflation remaining above target [2] - The uncertainty surrounding new tariffs and their potential impact on consumer prices, business confidence, and supply chain stability was highlighted, indicating challenges for the Federal Reserve in assessing policy outcomes [3]

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-20 英国央行维持利率不变 特朗普继续向美联储施压 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，英国央行将利率维持在4.25%不变，投票比例显示内部分歧加大。交易员预计该行今年还会再降息50个基 点。此外，在地缘方面，以色列国防部长称，消灭哈梅内伊是此次行动的目标之一。而白宫则表示，特朗普与伊 朗谈判"有很大"机会，其将在两周内决定是否攻击伊朗。此外，昨日特朗普再度抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，称其 是美国的耻辱，并表示美联储应该降息250个基点。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-19，沪金主力合约开于 786.50元/克，收于 781.24元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.53%。当日成交量为 190490手，持仓量为 161031手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于783.10 元/克，收于 784.06 元/克，较昨日午后收盘下 降0.11%。 2025-06-19，沪银主力合约开于 9012元/千克，收于 8819元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 746980手，持仓量 387527手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,811 元/千克，收于 8,814 元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 下降 ...

2025年06月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：联储继续按兵不动 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：不确定增加，市场谨慎 | 5 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 7 | | 铅：区间运行 | 8 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 9 | | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 11 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：累库有所加速，偏弱震荡延续 | 13 | | 工业硅：上方空间有限 | 15 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 15 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 17 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 焦炭：铁水增量，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦煤：铁水增量，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 对二甲苯：海内外供应偏紧，趋势走强，月差正套 | 27 | | ...